e-bird and climate change distribution and abundance models, john alexander
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E-Bird and Climate Change Distribution and Abundance
ModelsPartners in Flight Tools for
Wildlife Conservation PlanningJohn Alexander, Klamath Bird ObservatoryKen Rosenberg, Cornell Lab of OrnithologyGeoff Geupel, PRBO Conservation ScienceConnect, Collaborate, and
Conserve in an Era of Changing Landscapes: An Interactive Training on
State Wildlife Action Plans4-6 June 2013
National Conservation Training Center
Avian Knowledge AllianceCollecting,
Caretaking, and Communicating
Avian Knowledge
(Stephens et al. 2009, PIF Proceedings)
UniqueCapacities and Roles of NGOs
AvianKnowledge
Network
Bird Conservation Science Applied
Multi-speciesAssess conservation needsSet measurable objectivesDesign managementMeasuring effectiveness
Science-based tools• Species assessment database• Standard monitoring techniques• Conservation plans• Conservation design process
(Alexander 2011, PhD Dissertation; Stephens et al. 2011, USFWS BTP)
Avian Knowledge Network
Nation's first assessment of the distribution of birds on public lands and waters
The State of the Birds 2011 Public Lands and Waters
Who Contributes to eBird
More than…
100 million observations
1 million locations
93 thousand contributors
7.6 million field hours
www.eBird.org
Stewardship Responsibilities for Birds
Stewardship Responsibilities for Birds
Stewardship Responsibilities for Birds
Regional Conservation Plans
Focal Species
(Altman and Alexander 2012; Alexander et al. 2007, FEM; Chase and Geupel 2005, PIF Proceedings)
Habitat attributes of healthy functioning ecosystem
Conservation Objectives
(North American Bird Conservation Initiative 2010)
Conservation priorities maps• Climate adaptation strategies
Important environmental factors• Developed specific planning
and management actions
Maps of poorly sampled environmental space• Effective monitoring
Detailed models• Bird distribution/abundance,
their environment, and climate
Results publicly accessible• Decision Support System for
visualizing climate scenarios• Downloadable GIS layers
NPLCC Project Goals
Modeling changes in bird distribution and abundance
White-breasted Nuthatch
(c) Peter LaTourrette
Bird Conservation Hotspots
Coniferspecies
Grasslandspecies
Oak woodlandspecies
Riparian species
Willamette Synthesis Update: Setting conservation priorities for grassland birds in the
Willamette Valley
• Future densities for 3 species
• Predictive maps were included as “targets” in conjunction with current distributions
• Determine optimal areas for conservation
Oregon Strategy: Key Conservation Issues
Grasslands•Altered fire regimes:
o Lincoln Sparrow – wet meadow
•Invasive species:o Western Meadowlark –
large grassland patcheso Oregon Vesper Sparrow –
scattered bunchgrasso Grasshopper Sparrow –
moderate grass height with little to no bare ground
Proposed Application: Natural Resource Management Planning
State Wildlife Action Plan Revisions (Climate)
National Forest Plan Revisions
BLM Western Oregon Resource Management Plan
USFWS Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Planning
NRCS and USWFS Partners Private Lands Prioritizations
Questions?Discussion
John Alexander, [email protected]
Ken Rosenberg, [email protected]
Geoff Geupel, [email protected]