dynamic analysis of exchange rate regimes: policy implications for emerging countries in asia

8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia

1/21


2/21

Wan _frj`do Umpnr snr`ns `s m lfdt`dumt`fd fh tan hfrinrby dming G`sluss`fd Umpnr snr`ns:tan duicnr`do fh tan pmpnrs lfdt`dung w`tafut `dtnrrupt`fd fr lamdon. MGC@s wfrj`do

pmpnrs rnhbnlt `d`t`mb `gnms fd m tfp`l mdg mrn pfstng fdb`dn hfr g`sluss`fd. MGC@ ndlfurmonsrnmgnrs tf pfst tan`r lfiindts fd tan im`d pmon hfr nmla wfrj`do pmpnr (o`vnd `d tanl`tmt`fd cnbfw). \fin wfrj`do pmpnrs imy gnvnbfp `dtf ftanr hfris fh pucb`lmt`fd.

\uoonstng l`tmt`fd;

Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35=7. Gydmi`l Mdmbys`s fh Nxlamdon Smtn Snoìns;Ufb`ly @ipb`lmt`fds hfr Ninro`do Lfudtr`ns `d Ms`m. MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53. Wfjyf; Ms`mdGnvnbfpindt Cmdj @dst`tutn. Mvm`bmcbn; attp;//www.mgc .fro/wfrj`do-pmpnr/35=7/=5/37/8711.gydmi`l.mdmbys`s.nxlamdon.rmtn.rnoìns/

Ubnmsn lfdtmlt tan mutafrs hfr `dhfrimt`fd mcfut ta`s pmpnr.

Nim`b;dyfsa`dfEmgc`.fro:jmkÈnlfd.jn`f.ml.kp:tmsfduimEìh.fro

Dmfyuj` Pfsa`df `s Gnmd mdg LNF fh tan Ms`md Gnvnbfpindt Cmdj @dst`tutn. \mafjfJmk` `s Urfhnssfr, Gnpmrtindt fh Nlfdfi`ls, Jn`f ^d`vnrs`ty. Wmifd Msfduim `sNlfdfi`st, Gnct Ufb`ly G`v`s`fd, \trmtnoy Ufb`ly mdg Snv`nw Gnpmrtindt, @dtnrdmt`fdmbIfdntmry Hudg.

Wan v`nws nxprnssng `d ta`s pmpnr mrn tan v`nws fh tan mutafr mdg gf dft dnlnssmr`byrnhbnlt tan v`nws fr pfb`l`ns fh MGC@, MGC, `ts Cfmrg fh G`rnltfrs, fr tan ofvnrdindtstany rnprnsndt. MGC@ gfns dft oumrmdtnn tan mllurmly fh tan gmtm `dlbugng `d ta`s pmpnrmdg mllnpts df rnspfds`c`b`ty hfr mdy lfdsnqundlns fh tan`r usn. Wnri`dfbfoy usng imydft dnlnssmr`by cn lfds`stndt w`ta MGC fhh`l`mb tnris.

_frj`do pmpnrs mrn sucknlt tf hfrimb rnv`s`fd mdg lfrrnlt`fd cnhfrn tany mrn h`dmb`zngmdg lfds`gnrng pucb`sang.

Ms`md Gnvnbfpindt Cmdj @dst`tutnJmsuiòmsnj` Cu`bg`do 1H

Jmsuiòmsnj`, La`yfgm-juWfjyf =55-8551, Kmpmd

Wnb; +1=-55Hmx; +1=-?=^SB; www.mgc`.froN-im`b; `dhfEmgc`.fro

35=7 Ms`md Gnvnbfpindt Cmdj @dst`tutn
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


3/21

MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim

Mcstrmlt

Wa`s pmpnr g`slussns gns`rmcbn nxlamdon rmtn rnoìns mdg afw lfudtr`ns lmd sa`ht hrfitan`r lurrndt rnoìns tf tansn rnoìns fvnr tan ingùi tnri. _n gnifdstrmtn tansupnr`fr`ty fh m cmsjnt-pno rnoìn w`ta tan cmsjnt wnòat rubn fvnr m hbfmt`do rnoìn w`ta tan

`dtnrnst rmtn rubn fr tan ifdny suppby rubn `d simbb fpnd nlfdfi`ns, gur`do pnr`fgs wandvfbmt`b`ty fh nxlamdon rmtns `s ifgnrmtn. Lfudtr`ns wa`la lurrndtby amvn h`xng nxlamdon rmtnswfubg cn cnttnr ifv`do tfwmrg n`tanr m cmsjnt-pno fr m hbfmt`do rnoìn fvnr tan ingùitnri. M sa`ht tf m cmsjnt-pno rnoìn `s prnhnrrng wand nxlamdon rmtn hbultumt`fds mrn bmron.

KNB Lbmss`h`lmt`fd;N73, H


4/21


Lfdtndts

=. @dtrfgult`fd ................................................................................................................ .

\a`hts hrfi m H`xng Sno`in tf Mbtnrdmt`vn Sno`ins ................................................. =3

8. Lfdlbus`fd ............................................................................................................... =?

Snhnrndlns ......................................................................................................................... =1


5/21


=. @DWSFG^LW@FD

Gur`do tan bmst 3 gnlmgns, Nmst Ms`md lfudtr`ns amvn ndomong `d md `dtnds`vn gncmtnfd tan ifst gns`rmcbn nxlamdon rmtn rnoìns hfr tan rno`fd. Cnhfrn tan Ms`md h`dmdl`mblr`s`s, tan gfbbmr-pno wms rnomrgng ms tan ifst mpprfpr`mtn rnoìn mdg ifst lfudtr`nstamt jnpt tan`r lurrndl`ns mt m lfdstmdt rmtn mom`dst tan ^\ gfbbmr cndnh`tng `d tnris fh`dlrnmsns `d trmgn mdg lmp`tmb hbfws, gnsp`tn tan pftndt`mb bfssns mssfl`mtng w`ta o`v`doup sfin fh tan`r ifdntmry mutfdfiy.

Afwnvnr, gn hmltfgfbbmr-pno rnoìns wnrn cbming ms fdn fh tan twf imkfr lubpr`ts `dtan Ms`md h`dmdl`mb lr`s`s. Bmron hbultumt`fds fh tan nxfondfus nxlamdon rmtn, sula mstan gfbbmrynd rmtn, dnomt`vnby mhhnltng nlfdfi`ns tarfuoa tan ynd rmtn, mbtafuoa tan

gfbbmr rmtn rnim`dng h`xng.=Wan ftanr lubpr`t wms m g`slrnpmdly `d imtur`ty cntwnnd

bndg`do mdg cfrrfw`do cy h`dmdl`mb `dst`tut`fds `d Nmst Ms`md nlfdfi`ns. H`dmdl`mb`dst`tut`fds `d @dgfdns`m, Snpucb`l fh Jfrnm, mdg Wam`bmdg cfrrfwng fd m safrt-tnricms`s hrfi mcrfmg mdg bndt tf gfinst`l h`ris fd m bfdo-tnri cms`s. \uggnd w`tagrmwmbsfh hudgs gur`do tan lr`s`s imgn tansn Nmst Ms`md cmdjs vubdnrmcbn.

Snhbnlt`do ta`s lr`t`l`si, snvnrmb nlfdfi`sts amvn suppfrtng m ifvn tf m cmsjnt-pnornoìn `d Nmst Ms`m, `dlbug`do Jmwm` (3557, 355?), @tf, Fomwm mdg \msmj` (=001), @tfmdg Umrj (355 lurrndl`ns amvn tan sminlamrmltnr`st`ls ms tany g`g cnhfrn tan lr`s`s.

3

Afwnvnr, tanrn `s m grmwcmlj `d tan hbfmt`do rnoìn; bmron nxlamdon rmtn hbultumt`fds dnomt`vnby mhhnlttan nlfdfiy, ms safwd `d Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg @cujm (355


6/21


7/21


Mdftanr strnmi fh b`tnrmturn prfv`gns m gydmi`l mdmbys`s fh nxlamdon rmtn rnoìns `dNmst Ms`m. Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg \uzuj` (3553) lfipmrn tarnn nxlamdon rmtn rnoìns, tancmsjnt-pno, tan gfbbmr-pno, mdg tan hbfmt`do rnoìn, `d tan gydmi`l lfdtnxt mdg h`dg tamt

tan cmsjnt-pno bnmgs tf tan bfwnst luiubmt`vn bfss mifdo tarnn fpt`fds. \a`fk` (3558m,3558c) lfds`gnrs nxlamdon rmtns `d m gydmi`l stflamst`l ndv`rfdindt mdg hflusns fdnxlamdon rmtn pmss-tarfuoa udgnr tan cmsjnt-pno rnoìn w`ta twf g`hhnrndt `dvf`l`doslanins fh h`ris; prfgulnr lurrndly pr`l`do mdg vna`lbn lurrndly pr`l`do.

Smkmd mdg \`rnomr (3553) lfdtrmst tan nxpnr`ndlns fh Afdo Jfdo, La`dm mdg \`dompfrn wanrn tan hfrinr

fpnrmtns m ^\ gfbbmrb`djng lurrndly cfmrg mrrmdonindt mdg tan bmttnr im`dtm`ds md mgkustmcbn pno `dtan hfri fh m ifd`tfr`do cmdg mrrmdonindt w`ta tan lndtrmb pmr`ty cmsng fd md udg`slbfsng trmgnwnòatng lurrndly cmsjnt.

8

Im mdg IlLmubny (35==) h`dg tamt `d 3 ynmrs hrfi i`g-3558 tf i`g-3551, tan La`dnsn rndi`dc`strndotandng ormgumbby mom`dst trmg`do pmrtdnrs lurrndl`ns w`ta`d m dmrrfw cmdg.

>


8/21


H`ourn =; Dfi`dmb Nxlamdon Smtns fh M\NMD+< Lurrndl`ns mom`dst tan ^\ Gfbbmr

M. Mbb lfudtr`ns (Kmdumry =00? 9 =.5)

C. Nxlbug`do @dgfdns`m (Kmdumry =00? 9 =.5)

USL 9 Unfpbns Snpucb`l fh La`dm.

\furln; @IH @dtnrdmt`fdmb H`dmdl`mb \tmt`st`ls.

8


9/21


Snlndt trmds`t`fds fh gn kurn nxlamdon rmtn rnoìns `d M\NMD+< mrn suiimr`zng `d

Wmcbn =.?

@t `s dftnwfrtay tamt ifst lfudtr`ns `d M\NMD+< nxlnpt Kmpmd amvn

nxpnr`ndlng sa`hts hrfi fdn rnoìn tf mdftanr `d tan pfst-Ms`md h`dmdl`mb lr`s`s pnr`fg

mdg amvn nxpnr`ndlng mt bnmst m simbb gnornn fh lamdon. Mifdo tani, wn snn twfpmttnrds fh rnoìn lamdon; (`) m gnv`mt`fd hrfi m lfdvndt`fdmb pnoong mrrmdonindtmssfl`mtng w`ta md `dlrnmsn `d tan hbnx`c`b`ty fh tan nxlamdon rmtn (ms `d tan USL mdgImbmys`m) mdg (``) m gnpmrturn hrfi m imdmong hbfmt`do rnoìn cnlmusn fh m rngult`fd`d hfrnòd nxlamdon imrjnt `dtnrvndt`fds (ms `d @dgfdns`m mdg Wam`bmdg).

Wmcbn =; Wrmds`t`fd fh Gn KurnNxlamdon Smtn Snoìns `d M\NMD+53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim

@d pmrmbbnb w`ta tan gn kurn nxlamdon rmtn rnoìns mddfudlng fhh`l`mbby cy tanmutafr`t`ns, @`zntzj`, Sn`damrt, mdg Sfofhh (35==) prfv`gn ifrn gntm`bng lbmss`h`lmt`fds fhnxlamdon rnoìns lfds`gnrng ms gn hmltf. Ms wms snnd `d tan gn hmltflmsn, wn lmd

snn m gnv`mt`fd hrfi m lfdvndt`fdmb pnoong mrrmdonindt mssfl`mtng w`ta ornmtnrnxlamdon rmtn hbnx`c`b`ty ms `d tan USL mdg Imbmys`m, `.n., m ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3% mdg m gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/->%. Mbtafuoa tan USL snnis tf amvn rnturdng tf m gn hmltfpno `d Fltfcnr3551 ròat mhtnr tan obfcmb h`dmdl`mb lr`s`s, hfr tan pnr`fg hrfi Kudn 35=5 tf Kudn 35=3 `t`s mssnssng tf amvn rnvnrtng tf m ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%ms safwd cy tan nip`r`lmb mdmbys`s `d Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35=7). Afwnvnr,tan Ua`b`pp`dns mdg \`dompfrn mrn mssnssng tf cn ìpbnindt`do gn hmltf lrmwb`docmdgs tamt mrn dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3->% mdg ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnrtamd fr nqumb tf +/-3% rnspnlt`vnby rmtanr tamd hbfmt`do fr imdmong hbfmt`do rnoìns.

Wmcbn 3; Wrmds`t`fd fh Gn HmltfNxlamdon Smtn Snoìns `d M\NMD+

m

Mrrmdonindt `dndg-3551

m

Mrrmdonindt `dndg-35=5

m

@dgfdns`m Imdmong hbfmt`doGn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/->%

Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdgtamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/->%

Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt`s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/->%

Imbmys`mUrn-mddfudlng pno frlurrndly cfmrgmrrmdonindt

Gn hmltf pnoGn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdgtamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/->%


Ua`b`pp`dnsGn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdgtamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/-3%

Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%

Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdgtamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/->%


\`dompfrnIfv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%

Ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnrtamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%

Ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumbtf +/-3%

Ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%

Wam`bmdgIfv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%

Ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnrtamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%

Ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumbtf +/-3%

Ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%

UnfpbnsSnpucb`l fhLa`dm

Gn hmltf pnoIfv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnrtamd frnqumb tf +/-3%

Gn hmltf pno Gn hmltf pno

Kmpmd Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do

Snpucb`l fhJfrnm

Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do

mWan lmtnofr`ns fh gn kurnnxlamdon rmtn mrrmdonindts mrn (=) df snpmrmtn bnomb tndgnr, (3) prn-mddfudlng

pno fr lurrndly cfmrg mrrmdonindt, () prn-mddfudlng lrmwb`do pno, (8) prn-mddfudlng lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamdfr nqumb tf +/-3%, (?) gn hmltf lrmwb`do pno, (1) gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%, (0) prn- mddfudlng lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `s w`gnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%, (=5) gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/->%, (==) ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%, (=3) imdmong

hbfmt`do, (=) gumb imrjnt d wa`la pmrmbbnb imrjnt gmtm s i`ss`do.

\furln; @bzntzj`, Sn`damrt, mdg Sfofhh (35=5).

1


11/21


7. GPDMI@L MDMBP\@\ CM\NG FD @D\WSÎNDW

S^BN\ FH IFDNWMSP UFB@LP

Wan suiimry fh tan trmds`t`fds fh tan nxlamdon rmtns mdg rnoìns `d tan pfst-lr`s`spnr`fg `d tan prnv`fus snlt`fd suppfrts tan dnng hfr gydmi`l mdmbys`s. Mbtafuoa sfinstug`ns mttnipt tf lfds`gnr tan ifst gns`rmcbn rnoìn hfr tan rno`fd `d m gydmi`llfdtnxt, tan b`djs cntwnnd tan nxlamdon rnoìns mdg tan `dstruindt rubns fh ifdntmrypfb`ly mrn dft lfiprnands`vnby g`slussng. @d ta`s rnomrg, Pfsa`df, Jmk` mdg Msfduim(35=3m) mdmbyzn tan supnr`fr`ty fh m cmsjnt-pno rnoìn fvnr m hbfmt`do rnoìn, hflus`dopmrt`lubmrby fd pfss`cbn `dstruindt rubns, wa`la tan lfudtr`ns ìpbnindt udgnr tansnrnoìns. Wan`r ifgnb `s m simbb fpnd nlfdfiy ifgnb wanrn tan rnst fh tan wfrbg `sg`v`gng `dtf twf lfudtr`ns safwd `d Hòurn 3. @t mssuins Wam`bmdg tf cn tan afinlfudtry mdg Kmpmd mdg tan ^\ tf cn tan rnst fh tan wfrbg (SF_). Wan yndgfbbmr rmtn `s

nxfondfus tf Wam`bmdg.1

Hòurn 3; Ifgnb fh \imbb Fpnd Nlfdfiy mdg tan Snst fh tan _frbg

SF_ 9 rnst fh wfrbg, ^\ 9 ^d`tng \tmtns.

\furln; Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35=3m).

\fin `dtnrnst`do pfb`ly ìpb`lmt`fds ninron hrfi Wmcbn


12/21


i`dì`zn tan ìpmlts fd tan futput omp mdg `dhbmt`fd tarfuoa nxlamdon rmtn lamddnbs

cy lfii`tt`do tf `ts cmsjnt wnòat tf spnl`h`l pfb`ly tmront vmr`mcbns.0

\nlfdg, tan bfss udgnr tan muoindtng `dtnrnst rmtn rubn `s simbbnr tamd tamt udgnr tan

`dtnrnst rmtn rubn. Wa`s safws lbnmrby tan mgvmdtmon fh lfii`tt`do tf m rubn tamt `dlbugnstan gfbbmr rmtn ms md mgg`t`fdmb tmront cnlmusn cfta futput omp mdg `dhbmt`fd mrn bmronbymhhnltng cy hbultumt`fds `d tan gfbbmr rmtn. Bmstby, tan aòanr vmbuns fh luiubmt`vn bfssnsudgnr tan trmgn wnòat rubn mdg tan h`xng rmtn rubn lfipmrng tf tafsn udgnr tan cmsjntwnòat rubn rnby fd tan `dnhh`l`ndly fh tan rubns, sula tamt tan lndtrmb cmdj lmddft mgkusttan cmsjnt wnòat sifftaby tf rnmlt mom`dst safljs.

Wmcbn


13/21


H`ourn


14/21


>. \A@HW\ HSFI M H@QNG SNO@IN WF MBWNSDMW@XN

SNO@IN\

_n bnmrdng hrfi tan prnv`fus snlt`fd tamt m cmsjnt-pno mdg m hbfmt`do rnoìn mrn cftagns`rmcbn hfr Nmst Ms`md lfudtr`ns fvnr tan ingùi tnri. Afwnvnr, tanrn rnim`ds m còqunst`fd; afw bmron mrn tan lfsts mssfl`mtng w`ta m trmds`t`fd hrfi m h`xng rnoìn tf

mbtnrdmt`vn rnoìns hfr lfudtr`ns wa`la lurrndtby amvn m h`xng rnoìn6=5

Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==) lfds`gnr wantanr tansn lfudtr`ns wfubg cn cnttnrfhh im`dtm`d`do tan stmtus quf (tan h`xng rnoìn w`ta str`lt lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs) fr sa`ht`do tfmd mbtnrdmt`vn rnoìn, tmj`do `dtf mllfudt tan lfsts mdg cndnh`ts tamt wfubg cnondnrmtng cy ifv`do tf ftanr rnoìns. Ms `d \nlt`fd 7, tan ifgnb `s m simbb fpnd

nlfdfiy ifgnb wanrn tan rnst fh tan wfrbg `s g`v`gng `dtf twf lfudtr`ns safwd `dHòurn 7. @d ta`s lmsn, tan USL `s trnmtng ms tan afin lfudtry, `.n., m simbb fpndnlfdfiy o`vnd `ts lmp`tmb fpnddnss mdg h`dmdl`mb b`cnrmb`zmt`fd, mdg Kmpmd mdg tan ^\ms tan rnst fh tan wfrbg (SF_). Fdln mom`d tan yndgfbbmr rmtn rnim`ds nxfondfus tf

tan USL.==

Hòurn 7; Ifgnb `d Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==)

USL 9 Unfpbns Snpucb`l fh La`dm, SF_ 9 rnst fh wfrbg, ^\ 9 ^d`tng \tmtns.

\furln; Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==).

Cns`gns im`dtm`d`do tan lurrndt rnoìn, safwd ms pfb`ly (=) `d Hòurn >, tan fpt`fds hfrtan lfudtry mrn tf sa`ht tf m cmsjnt-pno rnoìn fr tf m hbfmt`do rnoìn.

=5Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35=7) g`sluss tan ifst gns`rmcbn gydmi`l trmds`t`fd pfb`ly hfr tan USL, `db`dn w`ta rnlndt gnvnbfpindt fh nxlamdon rmtn pfb`ly `d tan lfudtry.

==

Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==) mssuin tamt gfinst`l mdg hfrnòd mssnts mrn ìpnrhnlt sucst`tutnswanrnms \ mssnts mdg Kmpmdnsn mssnts mrn pnrhnlt sucst`tutns hfr gfinst`l dvnstfrs.

=3


15/21


Hfr tan ifvn tf m cmsjnt-pno rnoìn, Hòurn > safws twf pfss`cbn rfutns tan lfudtrylmd tmjn. \tmrt`do w`ta tan gfbbmr-pno rnoìn w`ta str`lt lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs, udgnr pfb`ly (3)tan lfudtry lmd sa`ht tf m cmsjnt-pno rnoìn w`ta bffsn lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs, mdg h`dmbby

rnmla tan cmsjnt-pno w`ta df lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs, `.n., `t lmd ormgumbby mgkust cfta tangnornn fh lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs mdg cmsjnt wnòat. Ufb`ly () stmrt`do w`ta tan gfbbmr-pno rnoìnw`ta str`lt lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs mdg suggndby sa`ht`do tf tan imdmong hbfmt`do rnoìn cyrnifv`do lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs. @d ta`s lmsn tan lfudtry `dtnrvndns `d tan hfrnòd nxlamdonimrjnt wand m bmron nxlamdon rmtn hbultumt`fd mgvnrsnby mhhnlts tan nlfdfiy.

Hòurn >; Ufb`l`ns tfwmrg \tmcbn Snoìns

\furln; Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==).

Wmcbns 7 mdg > mrn cmsng fd sìubmt`fd rnsubts us`do La`dnsn mdg Wam` gmtm. Wanimkfr pfb`ly ìpb`lmt`fds fh tansn tmcbns lmd cn suiimr`zng ms hfbbfws.

H`rst, im`dtm`d`do m gfbbmr-pno rnoìn `s gns`rmcbn fdby `d tan safrt tnri hfr cfta tanUSL mdg Wam`bmdg, `dg`lmt`do tamt tany wfubg cn cnttnr sa`ht`do tf n`tanr m cmsjnt-pnornoìn fr m hbfmt`do rnoìn `d tan bfdo tnri. Wa`s rnsubt gfns dft gnpndg fd tan pfb`lytmronts tan ifdntmry mutafr`t`ns mrn mì`do tf mla`nvn: w`ta rnomrg tf cfta futputstmc`b`ty mdg pr`ln bnvnb stmc`b`ty, `t `s gns`rmcbn tf ifvn hrfi m gfbbmr-pno rnoìn.

\nlfdg, lfdlnrd`do tan laf`ln cntwnnd m ormgumb mgkustindt (pfb`ly 3) tfwmrg m

gns`rng cmsjnt-pno rnoìn fr m suggnd sa`ht tf m gns`rng cmsjnt-pno rnoìn (pfb`ly


16/21


tan bfdonr tan trmds`t`fd pnr`fg, tan ornmtnr tan cndnh`ts tan lfudtr`ns rnln`vn hrfirnmla`do tan gns`rng rnoìn mt fdln. Afwnvnr, tan lfudtr`ns wfubg suhhnr bfssns hrfitan sa`hts mdg m ormgumb mgkustindt wfubg ndmcbn tani tf siffta tansn fut fvnr m

pnr`fg fh tìn. Wanrnhfrn, lfudtr`ns usumbby prnhnr tf amvn m trmds`t`fd pnr`fg tfi`dì`zn tansn bfssns. M trmds`t`fd pnr`fg fh md `dtnring`mtn bndota (=1 qumrtnrs),ndmcbns m ormgumb mgkustindt tfwmrg m gns`rng cmsjnt-pno rnoìn. Hfr cfta futputstmc`b`ty mdg pr`ln bnvnb stmc`b`ty, m ormgumb mgkustindt `s hfudg tf cn gns`rmcbn.

Wa`rg, lfipmr`do tan suggnd sa`hts tf m cmsjnt-pno rnoìn (pfb`ly


17/21


Wmcbn 7; Lfipmr`sfd fh H`vn Wrmds`t`fdmb Ufb`l`ns hfr tan USL

M. Futput \tmc`b`ty

Ufb`ly (=) Ufb`ly (3) Ufb`ly ()(WN9>)

Gns`rmcbn rno`in Gfbbmr-pno Cmsjnt-pno Cmsjnt-pno Hbfmt`do Imdmonghbfmt`do

Mgkustindt d.m. Ormgumb \uggnd \uggnd \uggnd

@dstruindtvmbun

Luiubmt`vn bfss(vmbun)

=?.57 =.15 =.0= 3.8? 3.


18/21


Wmcbn >; Lfipmr`sfd fh H`vn Wrmds`t`fdmb Ufb`l`ns hfr Wam`bmdg

M. Futput \tmc`b`ty

Ufb`ly (=) Ufb`ly (3) Ufb`ly ()(WN93 5.55>.5 =.< >.? ==.< ==.>

C. Ur`ln Bnvnb \tmc`b`ty

Ufb`ly (=) Ufb`ly (3) Ufb`ly ()(WN9


19/21


8. LFDLB^\@FD

Wa`s pmpnr ams mttniptng tf lfds`gnr twf qunst`fds rnbmtng tf tan g`sluss`fd fdgns`rmcbn nxlamdon rmtn rnoìns `d Nmst Ms`m, nipbfy`do m gydmi`l ndv`rfdindt. Wanh`rst `s; wamt `s tan ifst gns`rmcbn nxlamdon rmtn rnoìn hfr lfudtr`ns fvnr tan ingùitnri `d rnbmt`fd tf tan hudlt`fds fh `dstruindt rubns `d ifdntmry pfb`ly6 Wan snlfdg `s;wfubg m simbb fpnd nlfdfiy wa`la lurrndtby ams m h`xng nxlamdon rmtn rnoìn cncnttnr stmy`do w`ta tan lurrndt rnoìn fr sa`ht`do tf md mbtnrdmt`vn rnoìn fvnr taningùi tnri6

_n h`dg h`rst tamt tan cmsjnt-pno rnoìn w`ta m cmsjnt wnòat rubn `s supnr`fr tf tanhbfmt`do rnoìn w`ta md `dtnrnst rmtn rubn fr m ifdny suppby rubn `d simbb fpndnlfdfi`ns, fvnr pnr`fgs wand tan vfbmt`b`ty fh tan nxlamdon rmtns `s ifgnrmtn. Wanbmttnr ambh fh tan mdmbys`s suoonsts tamt tan lfudtr`ns wfubg cn cnttnr fhh sa`ht`do tfwmrg

n`tanr m cmsjnt-pno fr m hbfmt`do rnoìn fvnr tan ingùi tnri. M sa`ht tf m cmsjnt-pno`s prnhnrmcbn rnbmt`vn tf m sa`ht tf m hbfmt`do rnoìn wand tan nxlamdon rmtn hbultumt`fdsmrn bmron. \a`ht`do tfwmrg m imdmong hbfmt`do rnoìn `s bnss mttrmlt`vn tamd sa`ht`do tf mcmsjnt-pno o`vnd tan lfsts fh `dtnrvnd`do `d tan hfrnòd nxlamdon imrjnts.

Mbtafuoa fur mdmbys`s lndtnrs fd tan nxlamdon rmtn rnoìns `d Nmst Ms`m, `t amsìpb`lmt`fds hfr mdy simbb fpnd nlfdfi`ns w`ta sì`bmr hnmturns. Hfr sìpb`l`ty, furgydmi`l nxnrl`sn wms bì`tng tf simbb fpnd nlfdfi`ns. Wan gydmi`l mdmbys`s fh twf`dtnrgnpndgndt nlfdfi`ns lmrr`ng fut `d Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35=3c) imyprfv`gn mgg`t`fdmb dsòats.

=?


20/21


SNHNSNDLN\

Mgmis, L., mdg S. \nicbmt. 3557. Fpt`fds hfr Lurrndly Mrrmdonindts mdg Wan`rUfb`ly @ipb`lmt`fds. @d Nxlamdon Smtn Snoìns `d Nmst Ms`m, ng`tng cy O. GnCrfuwnr mdg I. Jmwm`. Bfdgfd; Sfutbngon.

Cmò, W. 355=. Lamrmltnr`z`do Nxlamdon Smtn Snoìns `d Ufst-Lr`s`s Nmst Ms`m. @IH_frj`do Umpnr, _U/5=/=>3. @IH.

C`rg O., mdg S. Smkmd. 3553. Fptìmb Lurrndly Cmsjnts mdg tan Wa`rg LurrndlyUandfindfd; Nxlamdon Smtn Ufb`ly hfr \futanmst Ms`m. Kfurdmb fh@dtnrdmt`fdmb Gnvnbfpindt. =7; =5>


21/21


Smkmd, S., mdg S. \`rnomr. 3553. Laf`ln fh Nxlamdon Smtn Snoìn; Lurrndly Cfmrg(Afdo Jfdo) fr Ifd`tfr`do Cmdg (\`dompfrn)6Mustrmb`md Nlfdfi`l Snv`nw, 77;>>8.

\a`fk`, N. 3558m. @dvf`l`do Lurrndly mdg tan Fptìmb Cmsjnt-pno hfr Nmst Ms`m;Mdmbyz`do ^s`do m Dnw Fpnd Imlrfnlfdfi`l Ifgnb. Kfurdmb fh tan Kmpmdnsnmdg @dtnrdmt`fdmb Nlfdfi`ns. 35; >80>10.

\a`fk`, N. 3558c. La`dnsn Nxlamdon Smtn Snoìns mdg tan Fptìmb Cmsjnt _nòats hfrtan Snst fh Nmst Ms`m. S@NW@ G`sluss`fd Umpnr \nr`ns. 58-N-537. Wfjyf; S@NW@.

\ussmdojmrd, L., mdg U. X`laymdfdg. 355?. Wnd Pnmrs mhtnr tan H`dmdl`mb Lr`s`s `dWam`bmdg; _amt ams cnnd bnmrdng mdg dft bnmrdng6Ms`md Nlfdfi`l Ufb`lySnv`nw, 3; =55==1.

Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35=7. Gydmi`l Wrmds`t`fd fh Nxlamdon SmtnSnoìn `d La`dm. La`dm & _frbg Nlfdfiy. 33(.

Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35=3m. Laf`lns fh Fptìmb Ifdntmry Ufb`ly@dstruindts udgnr tan Hbfmt`do mdg tan Cmsjnt-pno Snoìns. \`dompfrnNlfdfi`l Snv`nw. >?(7); =3>5537.

Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35=3c. Gydmi`l Mgkustindts tfwmrg tan \tmcbnCmsjnt-pno fr Hbfmt`do Snoìn d m Wwf-Lfudtry Ondnrmb Nqu`b`crùi Ifgnb.Imduslr`pt.

Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35==. Gydmi`l Nhhnlt fh Lamdon `d NxlamdonSmtn \ystni - Hrfi tan H`xng Nxlamdon Smtn Snoìn tf tan Cmsjnt-pnoSnoìn fr Hbfmt`do Snoìn. Jn`f/Jyftf Obfcmb LFN G`sluss`fd Umpnr \nr`ns.GU35==-538.attp;//www.olfn-nlfdcus.jn`f.ml.kp/ndob`sa/lmt70/.

Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 3557. Fptìmb Nxlamdon Smtn \ystni `d WwfLfudtr`ns w`ta tan Snst fh tan _frbg. Jn`f Nlfdfi`l \tug`ns. 7=; 3>?>.

Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg P. @cujm. 355

dynamic analysis of exchange rate regimes: policy implications for emerging countries in asia

Documents