dwr emergency drought barrier modeling and...
TRANSCRIPT
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DWR Emergency Drought Barrier Modeling and Analysis
Eli Ateljevich, PhD, PEDelta Modeling Section, DWR
October 15, 2015
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Barrier Modeling• Screening and selection• Water cost analyses• How does West False River Barrier work?• Model role in monitoring• Operational modeling and some challenges
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DWR Models
DSM2 Bay-Delta SCHISM
Tides
- Accurate velocities => realistic transport- Scalable for near field study
- Fast run times => optimization and design- Rehearsed over many flow regimes
(partial mesh)
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Screening with DSM2
Design Inspirations:• 1976-77 drought barriers• 2-gate project• Franks Tract project
2009 Emergency Barriers Draft Report http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/emergencybarriers.cfm
2007 2008 200915% 7% 3%
Checked against 2014 Forecast
Percentage Salinity Improvement at CCFB(average July – November EC)
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Sutter Slough
Steamboat Slough
West False River
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Miner Slough
Steamboat SloughWest False River
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DSM2 Water Quality Using Hydrology for IS-MND
(Initial Study – Mitigated Negative Declaration)7
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Barrier Topics• Screening and selection • Water cost analyses• How does West False River Barrier work?• Model role in monitoring• Models and project operation• Operational modeling and some challenges
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Water Cost: Quality ≠ Quantity
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Water Cost Analysis
• Minimize sum of outflow that …• Meets D-1641 EC (or anything you want)***• Constrained Optimization By Linear
Approximation (COBYLA)• Regularization to get rid of whacky results• (Most) solutions are “in the calibration zone”
*** D-1641 was modified in 2015: Emmaton ag standard moved to Threemile and Outflow requirements in spring/early summer relaxed.
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Main Water Cost Result
Water cost is bound by TUCP and Sacramento ag standard, mostly a tie
Objective Emergency Barriers
Without Barriers
Emmaton 3893 cfs 3657 cfs
Three Mile 3050 cfs 3045 cfs
Relaxed 2769 cfs 3045 cfs
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Bromide and Clifton Court
Costs are dependent on initial state
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Barrier Topics• Screening and selection • Water cost analyses • How does West False River Barrier work?• Model role in monitoring• Models and project operation• Operational modeling and some challenges
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Salinity Intrusion – “Disaster Scenario”
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Flow Change Near Franks Tract
South: Holland Tract
East: Turner Cut
SJR
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EC (m
icro
mho
s/cm
)2013-14
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EC (m
icro
mho
s/cm
)2015
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With Barrier
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Barrier Topics• Screening and selection • Water cost analyses • How does West False River Barrier work? • Model role in monitoring• Operational modeling and some challenges
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Models and Monitoring
• New stations• Sanity check of flow stations• Virtual triage of probable hot spots. • Velocity modeling accuracy quite good
– Bathymetry dependent– Resolution dependent
• Bathymetry – Easier to cover than velocity, harder than model– Bathymetry is the bottom line answer – Turbulent effects: no Reynolds averaging here!!
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Barrier Topics• Screening and selection • Water cost analyses • How does the West False River Barrier work? • Model role in monitoring• Operational modeling and some challenges
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Operational Modeling
• Many decisions are (days) upstream• Quick control: pumping• Consumptive use not known
– Often not much different from yesterday
• Punctuated by events on short notice– Particularly low pressure events offshore
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EC (m
icro
mho
s/cm
)2015
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Consumptive Use Models
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Subtidal Flow Data
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Operational Challenges
• Subtidal pressure events• Spinup and long memory• Consumptive use• Leakage (2000cfs at peak)
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Barrier Topics• Screening and selection • Water cost analyses • How does the West False River Barrier work? • Model role in monitoring• Operational modeling and some challenges
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Overall Summary
• W. False R. barrier effectively slowed salinity, changed tidal patterns
• Models used in design, outreach and monitoring
• What we learned useful in other contexts like habitat restoration
• Sense of urgency and design of monitoring program both good litmus tests of where we trust models
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Acknowledgements
• Operations and Maintenance• James Edwards, Reza Shacheraghi, Siqing Liu, Dan
Yamanaka, Aaron Miller• Delta Modeling Section
• Ming-Yen Tu, Tara Smith, Bob Suits, Nicky Sandhu, Kijin Nam, Qiang Shu, Rueen-fangWang
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Questions?
Eli Ateljevich: [email protected](technical q’s about talk)
http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/emergencybarriers.cfm
(DWR Drought Barrier info)
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