du_presentation on thesis _flood early warning_rev3_19 mar 2015

MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENTDepartment of Geography & Environment

Flood Early Warning System And Community-Based Response

in Northern Bangladesh(Thesis submitted to the Department of Geography and

Environment, University of DhakaIn partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MS in

Disaster Management)

Supervisor:Mr. Md. Abdul Mannan(Scientist, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre)MS in Disaster ManagementDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentUniversity of Dhaka

Presented by: Md. Shafiqur RahmanRoll No: 0304, , 3rd BatchMaster of Science in Disaster ManagementUniversity of Dhaka20 March 2015


STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION

1. Background2. Objective3. Methodology4. Major findings and analysis5. Conclusions6. Recommendations7. Acknowledgements


1. Flood is a regular phenomenon of Bangladesh2. Flood forecasting and warning system and timely responding to warning is important to reduce the adverse effect of flood3. Reliable information, dissemination system and people’s capacity is vital to respond to floods4. The forecast on different time scale is also important to preparedness and response5. With this respect, the study focused to identify the existing system especially its use by community and what needs to do further as way forward to strengthen the capacity of the institutions and community to reduce the adverse impacts of flood6. The study did not attempt to capture solid technical issues - rather it focuses to see what already in place and how community is responding7. So, considering the community capacity and needs along with existing system, the study is justified to see how things are going and to see a way forward

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY


The main objective of the research is to analyze the existing flood forecasting and warning system in Bangladesh and community understandings of the forecasting system and capacity to respond to monsoon floods, especially Jamuna and Brahmmaputra River Basin.

1.To identify the existing flood forecasting system and its development over time2. To analyze the awareness level of community and local Union Disaster Management Committee3.To identify and analyze the forecast dissemination system and response capacity including practice4. To identify what can be done further focusing on community actions

OVERALL OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Specific objectives


The present study focuses on the river flood forecasting system and its use at community level. - Primarily qualitative except where secondary data was

available.- Community consultation- Physical observation- Group discussion, and - Questionnaire survey

Note: Medium range (10 days) forecast emphasized – as more helpful comparing to 3-5 days forecast

Methodology of the study


RATIONALE: - River flood is a regular phenomenon of the northern char areas - Causes either more or less damages to crops and properties- Functional Early Warning system in place is a requirement

Assumptions: Effective early warning system helps people in better preparation and response resulting reducing effect of disasterArea: - Kurigram district: Hatia, Chilmari and Mogolbasa - Sirajganj district: Maijbari union

SELECTION OF STUDY AREA


FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY Deterministic

Forecast with 3-5 days lead time

Medium Range (10 Day) Probabilistic flood forecast

Flash Flood Advisory

Long range to Seasonal Outlook (25 days – 90 days (was under experiment)

Major Findings and Analysis of the study


Flash Flood Advisory


Seasonal Flow Outlook (Experimental)


Forecasts Dissemination

Website

E-mail ( Nationals stakeholders, District and Union Information Centers)

SMS ( SMS to DMC members in Pilot Unions)

400 stakeholders received flood early warning during monsoon through SMS

120 UISCs and 100 different stakeholders received flood early warning through e-mail in Bangla


Forecasts Dissemination.. Contd.


Unions Ranked 1 Ranked 2 Ranked 3 Ranked 4 Ranked 5

Chilmari Agriculture Business Sanitation Household Livestock

Hatia Agriculture Household Communication

Fisheries Household

Mogalbachha Agriculture Communication

Livestock Household Business

Maijbari Agriculture Business Livestock Communication

Most flood-affected sectors


Target groups Decisions Forecast lead time requirement

Farmers Early harvesting of B. Aman, delayed planting of T. Aman 10 days

Crop systems selection, area of T. Aman and subsequent crops Seasonal

Selling cattle, goats and poultry (extreme) Seasonal

Household Storage of dry food, safe drinking water, food grains, fire wood

10 days

Collecting vegetables, banana 1 week

Withdraw money from micro-financing institutions 1 week

Fisherman Protecting fishing nets 1 week

Harvesting fresh water fish from small ponds 10 days

DMCs Planning evacuation routes and boats 20 – 25 days

Arrangements for women and children 20 – 25 days

Distribution of water purification tablets 1 week

Char households Storage of dry food, drinking water, deciding on temporary shelter

1 week

Forecast lead time requirement for community-level decisions


• People living along riverbanks shifted to higher places safely and ahead of time, in response to forecast of flooding at danger level

• Community members observed river water levels to validate forecasts

Farmers in Chilmari, Maijbari, and Mogalbasa, avoided potential losses, with use of forecast for late August to early September

Forecasts were used in livelihoods-related decision-making: moving livestock to safe places; protection of fishponds; guidance for Aman cultivation, seedbed preparation, and fertilizer application; consideration of alternative livelihood sources when severe flooding is predicted

Forecasts were also used in preparedness when predicted water level exceeds danger level: stocking of drinking water, moving to flood shelters

Community responses


85.7142857142857

0

42.8571428571423

57.1428571428571

42.8571428571423

Involvement(%) in response activities

Trained Volunteers in response

Em-bank-ment 50%

Neighbour-ing house

25%

Scholl cum shel-

ter 25%

Undertaken shelter by displaced people

Displaced people’s shelter place during flood

Community responses .. Contd.


20%

20%

20%

40%

Means of dissemination process

Use Mosque mike MeghaphoneMobile(Rimes) By boat

MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENTDepartment of Geography & Environment Conclusions

Flood forecasting on different time scales has been improving Forecast accuracy decreases with increase in forecast lead time Communities in high-risk areas appreciate the value of longer lead flood forecasts Not all UDMC members are able to understand and analyze the forecast Some people do not know what to do after receiving information Location specific forecast is the high demand from community (especially for

unprotected areas) Interpretation (at local level) of forecast needs to be done in a more meaningful

manner to community Longer lead flood forecasts (seasonal) have high application potential for securing

livelihoods Confidence in the use of probabilistic forecast products is built over time Need for institutional mechanism to retain capacity built within FFWC Economic potential of longer-lead forecasts need to be translated into government

investment in early warning Coordination among different Government departments and other stakeholders needs

to strengthen - in terms of interpretation and dissemination


RECOMMENDATIONSFlood Forecasting Systems Medium-range (10-day) flood forecasting model runs should be initiated early May

every year Test the seasonal forecast model for at least two more flood seasons before making

the system operational. Continuous improvement of flood forecasting systems at the end of flood season Investment in observation systems is necessary for generating data required for data

assimilation into forecast models, to improve accuracy. Calibration of the 10-day flood forecasting model may be undertaken yearly to

reflect any change in catchment and river characteristics. Forecast Application Continuous FFWC-UDMC-end user engagement Regular training of UDMC and UP officials Strengthen FFWC-UDMC collaboration on forecast and warning communication Strengthen collaboration between FFWC, DDM, UDMCs and local NGOs on

forecast application and flood preparedness


RECOMMENDATIONS … CONTD.

Technology improvement through strengthening regional cooperation

Linking local DMCs with National level warning system

Contextualizing national warning message

Identifying local danger level as local reference

Develop volunteer group for warning dissemination

Developing EW dissemination plan at local level

Conducting drill/simulation on EWS

Raising awareness among people

Overall, a sustainable & functional system on Flood EW should be in place


Acknowledgements

- Grateful to the Almighty Allah- Supervisor Mr. Abdul Mannan, Scientist,

SAARC Meteorological Research Center- Community, UDMCS and villagers- Course coordinator Dr. AQM Mahbub, DU- Dr. Humayun Kabir, DU- FFWC, RIMES, CARE’s SHOUHARDO II staff- Classmates and fiends- All respected teachers of the faculty and defense

committee members- My spouse and kids

du_presentation on thesis _flood early warning_rev3_19 mar 2015

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