dtz global occupancy costs: logistics 2014
TRANSCRIPT
8/10/2019 DTZ Global occupancy costs: logistics 2014
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Occupier Perspective
Global Occupancy Costs – Logistics 2014
Asian cost advantages to reduce further
DTZ Research
22 October 2014
Contents
Section 1 – Global ranking 2
Section 2 – Fundamental demand
drivers 4
Section 3 – Structural demanddrivers 5
Section 4 – Supply trends 7
Section 5 – Outlook 8
Definitions 10
Author
Milena Kuljanin
Occupier Research
+ 1 312 424 [email protected]
Contacts
Richard Yorke
Head of Occupier Research
+44 (0)20 3296 2319
Fergus Hicks
Global Head of Forecasting
+ 44 (0)20 3296 [email protected]
Hans Vrensen
Global Head of Research
+ 44 (0)20 3296 2159
In this edition of our Global Logistics Landscape report, we present the costs of
occupying prime logistics space in 89 global markets - 25 more than our last
report. Furthermore, we review the cyclical and structural drivers changing the
use of logistics space globally. Finally, we provide our view about the outlook for
occupancy costs across 50 major markets.
Average European occupancy costs are currently USD 120 per sq m per year.
This is 20% higher than the US and 30% higher than Asia Pacific, confirming that
the Asian cost advantage compared to western markets endures. However,there are low-cost opportunities in every region.
These traditional preconceptions of low-cost Asian and high-cost Western
logistics locations have been challenged by recent changes. Warehouse labour
and logistics property in Asia Pacific have become considerably more expensive,
driven by strong demand. In contrast, labour costs in Europe and the US have
increased very modestly. Combined with decreasing occupancy costs, this trend
has improved the two regions’ relative cost effectiveness.
A continued recovery of the world economy will encourage consumption,
manufacturing and global trade. Combined with growing E-commerce, this will
bolster demand for logistics space. E-commerce is forcing supply chains to
fragment with increased proximity to urban centres and transhipment nodes.
Consequently, logistics operators are developing increasingly sophisticated
operational forms to improve cost efficiencies and reduce delivery times.
These increased demand-side efficiencies combined with new supply are
expected to limit logistics cost growth over the next five years to below inflation
levels (Figure 1). US and Asia Pacific markets will provide challenges for
occupiers in the short term. Occupiers in Asia Pacific will face further reductions
in cost advantages, reflecting both rising occupancy and labour costs. US
occupancy cost increases are projected to surpass regional inflation.
Meanwhile, European occupiers will benefit from the lowest cost increases,
despite some cities rebounding from recent steep declines.
Figure 1
Forecast pa increase in logistics occupancy costs, end 2014-2018
Source: DTZ Research
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%Lowest increase Highest increase
Cost growth
Inflation
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Figure 5
Global occupancy costs, Q2 2014 (USD per sq m per year)
Source: DTZ Research
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
London
Hong KongZurich
SingaporeOslo
MoscowLuanda
ManchesterSão Paulo
GlasgowBirmingham
HelsinkiTaipei
San FranciscoSt. Petersburg
MiamiLeeds
SydneyPerth
StockholmSeattle
GothenburgBrisbane
San DiegoDublin
RigaCopenhagen
FrankfurtLos Angeles
Buenos AiresBoston
HamburgWarsaw
Dusseldorf Montevideo
TallinnGlobal (average)
IstanbulDenverVilnius
HoustonMexico City
PhiladelphiaBerlin
New YorkSeoul
AmsterdamRome
Greater ParisMelbourne
PhoenixRotterdam
PragueBarcelona
ChicagoShanghai
MadridKyiv
DallasBeijing
ShenzhenLyon
BudapestBucharestMarseille
DurbanAntwerpChennaiBrussels
New OrleansMonterreyGuangzhou
TianjinPuneDelhi
ChengduChongqing
WuhanHangzhou
Dar er SalaamNairobi
MemphisAtlanta
MilanQingdao
ShenyangBengaluru
DalianNanjing
HyderabadAsia Pacific
Europe
US
Latin America
Africa
The global top 10 most
affordable markets are
dominated by Chinese and
Indian markets
Two US markets are in the
top ten most a ffordable list
The US is split between South and West - Southern
markets Atlanta, Memphis and New Orleans offer more
affordable logistics space than West Coast markets San Francisco,Seattle and Los Angeles
At $170 per sq m pa, Latin American hub
São Paulo is the ninth least affordable
market globally and more than doublethe price of Monterrey
Six of the global top ten least affordablemarkets are European. Three of these (London,
Manchester and Glasgow) are in the UK.
Luanda in Angola is the world's 7th
most expensive market, reflecting
supply shortage and a booming oil
industry
The world’s most affordable logistics market
Hyderabad is 7 times less expensive than the world’s
least affordable marketLondon Heathrow
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Section 2 – Fundamentaldemand driversCyclical and structural economic trends underpinning
regional differences in logistics demand
Logistics demand is highly correlated to GDP and
consumption. Regional GDP as well as private consumption
growth have diverged in recent years reflecting the cyclical
downturn, especially in the West, and the long term
structural changes in Asia Pacific reflecting the rotation
towards a consumer centric economy (Figure 6). Likewise,
manufacturing and transportation - key drivers of the
logistics sector - have diverged, with Asia Pacific recordingstrong output growth compared to the US and Europe
where activity has been flat or worse. Emerging markets
such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam have posted
especially strong growth. The changes in occupancy costs,
discussed in Section 1, reflect these economic trends.
Global trade weighed down by weak European demand
World merchandise trade, another significant driver of
demand for logistics real estate, was deeply affected by
the economic downturn and sudden drying up of trade
finance. This is evidenced by a collapse of trade flows
across all regions in 2009 (Figure 7). The bounce back insentiment in 2010 enabled world trade to return to its pre-
crisis level. China in particular made a significant
contribution to the recovery of world trade in 2010, as the
country's exports increased by more than 25%. However,
global trade growth has been sluggish since 2011, mainly
due to the lingering impact of recession and especially high
unemployment in parts of the EU which has continued to
suppress demand. However, recent forecasts suggest that
the economic recovery in Europe will gain momentum
from next year (see Outlook on page 8 for more).
E-commerce powers demand for global logisticsDespite the slowdown in international trade, global e-
commerce is growing. Annual business-to-consumers e-
commerce sales grew by 18% in 2013 (Figure 8). According
to eMarketer’s latest forecasts, global B2C e-commerce
sales will increase by 20% in 2014, driven mainly by growth
in Asia. It is also estimated that online retail currently
account for just 10% of all retail sales globally, but this is
expected to double over the next decade. The growth in e-
commerce is supercharging the expansion, and increasing
the complexity, of logistics real estate. This is evolving
from traditional distribution activities (to store) to
fulfilment centres (direct to customer). Moreover, the
need for retailers to improve profitability, reinforce brand
differentiation and accelerate delivery times to customers
means that logistics facilities are key revenue drivers.
Figure 6
Average pa growth in GDP, Consumption, Manufacturing
and Transportation* GVA, 2009-2013
*Transportation includes Warehousing in the US, Storage in Europe and Communications
in Asia Pacific
Source: Oxford Economics
Figure 7
Annual growth in the real value of traded goods (local
currency), 2009-2013
Source:
Oxford Economics
Figure 8
Business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce sales growth by
region (USD bn), 2013
Source:
eMarketer
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
GDP Consumption Transportation
GVA
Manufacturing
GVA
EU US Asia Pacific
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2004-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Europe US Asia Pacific
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Latin
America
Asi a Paci fi c North
America
Western
Europe
Global
2011 2012 2013 2014 (f)
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Section 3 – Structural demanddrivers
Structural drivers forcing supply chains to fragment
Globalisation, just-in-time (JIT), outsourcing and e-
commerce increasingly require global businesses to
establish complex supply and distribution chains. Logistics
users must find a balance between centralised locations
that consolidate inventories and distributed models that
reduce delivery times by being within or adjacent to major
population centres. As a result, proximity to transport
nodes, especially transhipment hubs, is increasingly
important. In an effort to reduce costs, points of supply
have shifted to more distant locations which require an
extended supply chain reliant on air and shipping
especially. This requires substantial investment in ocean
facilities and associated infrastructure. See Box 2
describing the growth of global port activity.
Increasingly sophisticated trade patterns require flexible
and agile supply chains. This is forcing logistics real estate
to evolve into new operational forms as illustrated in Box 1
below.
Box 1: New operational forms
Shared facilities – logistics space is leased from a
multi-tenant facility or via an outsourced 3PL (third
party logistics) provider. A 3PL is defined as a firm
that provides multiple logistics services including
transportation, warehousing, inventory
management, packaging and freight forwarding. A
3PL can offer convenient facilities with established
systems and a skilled workforce. This is increasingly
important for firms which require specialized
warehouse services.
Combined operations – where online and in-store
distribution reside together in a single facility,
leveraging existing distribution and supply chains.
Distributed fulfilment centres – disseminated
fulfilment is achieved by using multiple facilities
located close to customers. The benefits are faster
delivery times, more responsive service and lower
transport costs.
Containerisation is driving down shipping costs and off-
setting high and unpredictable fuel costsThe ability of exporters to effectively connect with
international markets depends on the performance of the
entire supply chain in terms of cost, time, reliability and
predictability. Goods in transit are carefully factored into
supply chains, requiring transhipment hubs to operate to
very high levels of capacity and efficiency. This has
underpinned the growth in large ports able to handle the
largest container ships (see Box 2). Moreover, falling
shipping costs, thanks to the economies of scale associated
with containerisation, has offset rising door-to-door
delivery costs which have been driven upwards by high
and unpredictable fuel costs. In addition, technologicalimprovements have significantly increased the speed of
ships and reduced the time required to load and unload
ships. When this is taken into account, the ‘quality-
adjusted cost’ of ocean shipping has gone down.
Retailers shifting from retail to logistics space can realise
real estate cost savings
It is estimated that e-commerce users typically require
three times the logistics space used by traditional retailers.
However, logistics is significantly more affordable than
retail space (Figure 9). Thus, retailers who shift from in-
store to online sales can reduce their retail real estatefootprint by storing all products in warehouses and closing
all deals online. This enables significant property cost
savings. This is increasingly important in locations where
competitiveness for retail space as well as affordable
labour is stiff. Retailers in several Asian markets are seeing
rapidly rising wages. These are likely to continue to
increase rapidly across the region over the next few years.
Figure 9
Prime logistics rents vs prime retail rents – major
markets, USD per sq m pa
*US retail rents refer to community centres
Source:
DTZ Research
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Prime logistics rent (LHS) Prime retail rent (LHS) Difference (RHS)
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Box 2: Top Global Ports
Transhipment ports flourishing in Asia
Ports play an important role in world trade. Cities that are
especially well positioned to attract new occupiers are
those that link to the global economy through ports and
airports. Warehouses located near ports can help to
optimise supply chains, reduce shipping costs and enable
companies to undertake a number of other value added
logistics services. The world container port system is
characterized by a high level of traffic concentration. The
20 largest container ports handle nearly half of global
traffic and are important generators of added value and
employment.
The Journal of Commerce’s latest global container ports
ranking shows that Asian ports hold 15 of the 20 top port
rankings (Figure 10). They also fill up nine of the top ten
slots, up from just five in 2000. Given the region’s
relatively robust economic outlook, widening
manufacturing base and government efforts to improve
infrastructure, it has become a major engine of growth for
global occupiers within the transport and logistics sector.
The port of Shanghai tops the list, handling 33.6 million
Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in 2013. Shanghai’s
status as an international trade hub is supported by the
rapid development of the Chinese economy and the large
industrial and trade base of the Yangtze River Delta region.
The second largest port of Singapore, an important
logistics hub, faces growing competition from other South
East Asian transhipment hubs, including Port Klang
(Malaysia) and the Port of Colombo (Sri Lanka). To
maintain its dominance, Singapore is focusing on more
high-end logistics services and also expanding its container
terminal capacity. By 2020, Pasir Panjang Terminal is
expected to increase port capacity to 50 million TEUs.
Congestion threatens growth in US and Europe
Dalian in China saw the strongest growth in cargo volume
(23%) in 2013, underpinned by a surging domestic
container business (Figure 11). In spite of this, prime
warehouse space remains one of the most affordable
globally. The port of Ho Chi Minh also saw uplift in
volumes. Indeed, the fast-growing Vietnamese hub is
becoming increasingly important for logistics operators.
Outside Asia Pacific, major gateway ports in the US and
Europe are struggling with congestion. Los Angeles is the
only US port to appear in the top 20 list. Long Beach
recorded the fifth strongest year-on-year growth involumes of 11%.
Figure 10
Top 20 global container ports, ranked by volume of cargo
handled (million TEUs), 2013
Source: The Journal of Commerce
Figure 11
Growth in cargo volume (million TEUs handled), 2013
Source: The Journal of Commerce
0 10 20 30 40
Tanjung Pelepas
Los Angeles
Xiamen
Keihin ports
Antwerp
Hamburg
Dalian
Kaohsiung
Port Klang
Rotterdam
Tianjin
Jebel Ali, Dubai
Guangzhou Harbor
Qingdao
Ningbo-Zhoushan
Busan
Hong Kong
Shenzhen
Singapore
Shanghai
Asia Pacific
EMEA
US
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30% Largest increase Largest decrease
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Section 4 – Supply trendsNew supply in Germany outpaces rest of Europe
In Germany, ninety-five warehouses totalling 1.42 million
sq m were completed in the first half of 2014. This is an
increase of 70% compared to the first half of the preceding
year. At end of the Q2 2014 there were 142 warehouses
under construction with a combined space of
approximately 2.8 million sq m. A majority of these
properties are expected to be delivered before the end of
2014. Thus, the total annual completion will exceed three
million sq m this year, a record (Figure 12). In Poland,
international distributors and e-commerce companiescontinue to drive demand. This has translated into robust
construction activity. The total grade A stock has grown by
50% since 2008 and it is estimated that the pipeline supply
for 2014-2015 will account for over 20% of the current
total stock. Meanwhile, availability in France has been
limited for several years and activity in H1 2014 points to
continued limitation in the choice of new logistics space. In
the UK, supply constraints are causing occupiers to
increasingly look to the build-to-suit market for good
quality buildings.
E-commerce drives Chinese logistics delivery
Strong activity in the e-commerce industry is driving the
demand for space in Asia Pacific. The supply of grade A
warehouses is expected to grow in major markets (Figure
13). The development pipelines in Hangzhou and Nanjing,
small but growing Chinese markets, account for large parts
of total stock. In Nanjing, the warehouse space to be
completed over the next three years is in fact larger than
the current stock. In Singapore, an estimated 1.5 million
sq m of warehouse space is expected to be delivered
between the start of 2014 and the end of 2016,
representing 19% of the current logistics stock. On an
annual average basis, this pipeline supply is higher than
the 2011-2013 annual average demand of 200,000 sq m.
Large warehouses driving supply in US
Construction in the US is ramping up to meet the growing
demand for warehouse space. Dallas is currently outpacing
the other markets, with a significant amount of new
warehouse and distribution space entering the market in
2014. In 2015 and 2016, occupiers in Chicago will benefit
from a particularly large injection of new space (Figure 14).
Conversely, Los Angeles is seeing limited construction due
to land constraints. However, Inland Empire, situated
directly east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, will see
1.8 million sq m delivered in 2014-2016. This marketprovides a good alternative for operators targeting the
wider Los Angeles area.
Figure 12
New logistics supply – major markets, Europe
(million sq m)
NB: UK includes all industrial schemes
Source: DTZ Research, PMA
Figure 13
New logistics supply – selected markets, Asia Pacific
(million sq m)
Source: DTZ Research
Figure 14
Warehouse/distribution completion – selected markets,
US (million sq m)
Source: REIS
0
1
2
3
4
Germany Poland UK France Czech
Republic
2013 2014 (f) 2015 (f) 2016 (f)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Shanghai Singapore Hangzhou Nanjing
2013 2014 (f) 2015 (f) 2016 (f)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Dallas Inland
Empire
Houston Chicago Los
Angeles
Northern
New Jersey
2013 2014 (f) 2015 (f) 2016 (f)
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Section 5 – OutlookGlobal economic recovery solid but uneven across regions
The world economy is improving and with it consumption
as well as manufacturing and transport activity. However,
economic growth is likely to be slow and uneven between
and within the regions. GDP and consumption growth will
be especially weak in Southern Europe which means the
entire region will continue to lag behind Asia Pacific and
the US (Figure 15). In the US, increased reshoring and
labour efficiency is sparking a manufacturing rebound. As a
result, productivity growth is forecast to be level with Asia
Pacific. The American South in particular is emerging as a
major manufacturing and logistics hub. Relatively low costsand tax rates means it is becoming increasingly attractive
for logistics companies relying on low-skilled workers.
Memphis is attracting a number of manufacturing and
logistics operators. Swedish household appliances giant
Electrolux established a 70,000 sq m manufacturing facility
in the city in 2014.
Supply injections to impact costs in Europe and the US
As discussed in section 4, occupiers can expect significant
new supply across all three regions over the next years.
Modest growth in economic demand drivers in Europe and
the US means rental growth in these regions will beparticularly sensitive to new supply. New European supply
in 2014 will be 52% higher than in 2013. In the US, it will
be 64% higher (Figure 16). European occupiers will benefit
from a particularly large injection in 2016, but the US will
see a slowdown in construction activity in 2015. It should
be mentioned that this development pipeline bears a
degree of underestimation. Growing demand is likely to
spur new construction activity which will keep a lid on
rental growth.
Global cost increases projected to be well below inflation
Our forecasts of the major 50 global logistics markets arebased on projections of outgoings and prime headline
rents. We forecast an average annual uplift of 1.9% in
global occupancy costs to 2018, below the global inflation
rate of 2.8% (Figure 17). The US is the only region where
cost increases are projected to surpass regional inflation.
Asia Pacific is set to see the strongest growth driven by
improving underlying market fundamentals and increased
demand from e-commerce companies such as Alibaba
Group. But, even in Asia Pacific rental growth will be
limited by a steady supply of grade A space. Occupiers in
several CEE markets, including Prague and Bucharest will
benefit from the lowest cost growth globally as supplyadjusts. Conversely, big increases in Dublin costs will
reflect strong demand from expanding logistics operators.
Figure 15
Average pa growth in GDP, Consumption,
Transportation* and Manufacturing GVA by region,
2014-2018
* Transportation includes Warehousing in the US, Storage in Europe and Communications
in Asia Pacific
Source:
Oxford Economics
Figure 16
New logistics supply in Europe* and the US, 2013-2016
(million sq m)
*Europe includes UK, Germany, France, Czech Republic and Poland.
Source: DTZ Research, REIS
Figure 17
Forecast pa increase in occupancy costs, 2014-2018
Source: DTZ Research
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2009-13 2014-18 2009-13 2014-18 2009-13 2014-18
EU US Asia Pacific
GDP Consumption Transport &
Manufacturing
0
2
4
6
8
2013 2014 (f) 2015 (f) 2016 (f)
Europe US
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%Lowest increase Highest increase
Cost growth
Inflation
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Asia Pacific to face highest absolute cost increases
Although Atlanta is amongst the top five centres in termsof average annual percentage growth in costs, this growth
is from a very low base. As such, the market will continue
to offer comparative value to occupiers. Looking at
absolute changes in costs, we note that on a regional level,
Asia Pacific will see the largest absolute cost uplifts (Figure
18). Hong Kong and Singapore will post the biggest
challenge to occupiers. By 2018, the cost for one sq m of
prime logistics space in Hong Kong and Singapore will have
grown by nearly USD 50 and USD 40 respectively.
Occupiers in Dublin and London (Heathrow) will face the
highest absolute cost growth in Europe.
Costs in London will exceed USD 360 per sq m by 2018. As
such, the UK capital is forecast to remain the mostexpensive market globally. Other UK markets, including
Leeds and Birmingham, will also see above average cost
growth on the back of improving demand and unsatisfying
levels of new supply. European low-cost markets, including
Bucharest, Prague and Antwerp will be the most
favourable markets in terms of absolute cost growth.
Labour costs will also increase across all three regions. Asia
Pacific will see the highest increase in percentage terms.
The absolute warehouse operative wage increase is also
close to the levels projected in Europe and the US.
Figure 18
Forecast total increase in occupancy costs (USD per sq m per year) and warehouse operative salary (thousands USD),
2014-2018
Source:
DTZ Research, Oxford Economics
0 10 20 30 40 50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Hong KongSingaporeDublin
LondonLeeds
SeattleBirmingham
HoustonDenverSydney
AmsterdamHelsinki
San DiegoOslo
San FranciscoRiga
ManchesterBrisbane
CopenhagenTaipei
MelbourneAtlanta
Asia Pacific averageGlobal average
US averageEurope average
MilanShanghai
TallinnLos Angeles
PhoenixBarcelona
PhiladelphiaRotterdam
ChicagoBrusselsBoston
DallasVilnius
HamburgGreater Paris
PerthFrankfurtBudapest
LyonMarseille
MadridGothenburg
BerlinWarsaw
RomeAntwerp
PragueBucharest
Lowest absolute cost growth
Highestabsolute cost growth
AsiaPacific
Europe
US
Occupier
favourability
High
Low
Wage increase,
thousands
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Definitions
Logistics building
A logistics building is a large-scale industrial premise in
which (a range of) logistics activities are performed,
such as storage and transhipment. The logistics building
is located in a prime industrial area with good transport
links. The building normally consists of approximately
5-10% office, a minimum gross internal floor area of
5,000 sq m and an eaves height in excess of 10 metres.
Gross Internal Area (GIA)
Gross Internal Area refers to the total floor area within
the building measured to the internal face of the
external walls. It includes areas such as internal walls,
partitions, columns, toilets, changing rooms, lift rooms,
boiler rooms and open-sided covered areas.
Prime rent
Prime rent is the highest rent that could be achieved
for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and
specification in the best location to a tenant with a
good (i.e. secure) covenant.
The prime rent is a net rent, excluding service charge
and tax. It is based on a standard lease, excluding
exceptional deals for that particular market.
Total occupancy costs
Total occupancy cost is defined as the total cost of
leasing prime usable space on a gross internal basis.
Total costs include rents, property taxes and service
charges. The definition of service charge varies
depending on the market. Service charges typically
include security, site maintenance and landscaping, and
can also vary depending on the type and size of the
estate.
Total occupancy costs exclude leasing incentives, such
as rent-free periods.
Our rental forecasts refer to prime headline rents. As
such, they do not take changes in incentives into
account.
Main components of logistics occupancy costs
Prime rent
The highest rent that could be
achieved for a typical building/unit of
the highest quality and specification in
the best location to a tenant with a
good (i.e. secure) covenantTotal
Occupancy
CostsOutgoings
Real estate tax and service charges.
Service charges may typically include
security, site maintenance and
landscaping
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China Insight Establishing the Capital Economic Region Aug 2014
Insight European Transaction Based Price Index Q2 2014
Insight European Nursing homes -July 2014
Insight GB Retail Property Health Index (RPHI)- July 2014
Insight Beijing TMT Office Occupier Survey- June 2014
Net Debt Funding Gap - May 2014
China Insight Office Pipeline and Dynamics May 2014
Insight Deflation and Commercial Property - March 2014
Insight Tokyo Retail Market 2014
China Investment Market Sentiment Survey - January 2014
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DTZ Research ContactsGlobal Head of ResearchHans Vrensen
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DTZ Business ContactsGlobal Corporate Services
Steven Quick
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Global Corporate Services, EMEA
James Maddock
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© DTZ October 2014