dsd-int 2015 - translating science to action - paul davies
TRANSCRIPT
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Translating science to action
Haiyan to Hagupit
Paul Davies, Chief Meteorologist
Typhoon Haiyan
© Crown copyright Met Office
WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions
Going the extra mile – can science deliver??
“I would rather die with my refrigerator than let it be taken by a storm surge”
STAKEHOLDER MEETING, MANILA 2014
© Crown copyright Met Office
WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions
Why did many people stay in their homes and did not move to safety?
Possible reasons:
• Did not know of the danger
• They knew about it but chose to ignore it
• Many people didn’t understand the science such as what is meant by ‘storm surge’ or how far the water would go
• Some people moved to evacuation centres which turned out to be in the inundation area – some died there
Typhoon -> Hazards
Typhoon -> Primary Lightning
Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge
Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge
Typhoon -> Secondary Flood inundation
Typhoon -> Tertiary Health and increased vulnerability
© Crown copyright Met Office
Typhoon Hagupit:
(1) Observations
(3) Forecast winds, rainfall, temperatures…
Big Data, Big Science
(2) Models
Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations, completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012)
bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day
Big Data, Big Science Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations,
completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012) bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day
“…bridging the Valley of Death…through effective
translation and application of science”
The 4.4 km
Typhoon Hagupit
Global (deterministic) 4.4 km downscaler (from determinsitic)
4.4 domain
Typhoon Hagupit: Ensembles
TWO scenarios
1. Landfall not until Tuesday or later. Main hazards: Heavy rainfall, severe inland flooding and landslides. Probability 70%
2. Landfall later Saturday or early Sunday. Main Hazards: wind and storm surge. Probability 30%.
Coping with Hurricanes/Typhoons
Weather and climate extremes
Weather analyses & forecast data
Hurricane track, size, & intensity
Implementation of evacuation &
recovery plans
Reducing risk & response scenarios
Mitigation strategies
Affected population & infrastructure,
disruption of services, damages due to wind
& water, etc.
Impact Estimation
Placing into situational context
Storm surge, flooding, inundated areas
Weather Translation to
hazards
Extraction of relevant information
to predict hazards
Holistic approach to impact and risk
GEO-PHYSICAL HAZARD
EXPOSURE
VULNERABILITY
Socio-Economic IMPACT
QUANTIFYING
& REDUCING RISK
WEATHER & CLIMATE
EXTREMES
Major Uncertainty
Some progress, still a limiting factor
Considerable progress
Advice on impacts