REAL TIME FORECASTING OF ECO-GEOMORPHOLOGY IN

COASTAL WETLAND SYSTEMS

Katelyn Costanza, M.S., CFM Ehab Meselhe, PhD, P.E. Daniel Twigt - Deltares

BACKGROUND AND MISSION

The Water Institute of the Gulf is a not-for-profit, independent research institute dedicated to advancing the understanding of coastal, deltaic, river and water resource systems, both within the Gulf Coast and around the world. Our mission supports the practical application of innovative science and engineering, providing solutions that benefit society. Began operations in February 2012 Operations based in Baton Rouge, Louisiana Founding Partners: State of Louisiana (Governor Jindal), Baton Rouge Area Foundation, Senator Mary Landrieu

Predicted Land Change along Louisiana Coast over the next 50 years if we do nothing more

than we have done to date

MOTIVATION

O V E R V I E W

Science and Engineering Plan outlines the benefits of having a real time predictive system Coastal Ecological and Geomorphological Analysis and Prediction System • Vision Develop a Forecasting System that will oPredict Coastal Morphological Changes oPredict Coastal Ecological Health

West Maurepas Diversion

Central Wetland Diversion

Bayou Lafourche Diversion

Upper-Breton Diversion

Mid-Breton Diversion

Lower-Breton Diversion

Mid-Barataria Diversion

Lower-Barataria Diversion

Atchafalaya Diversion

Increased Atchafalaya Flow

Mississippi Atchafalaya

O P P O R T U N I T I E S D I V E R S I O N S M A N A G E M E N T

Systemic management of diversions operation

Ability to refine projections based on real time monitoring and prediction

Figure 5.15 2012 Louisiana Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

Proactive measures to mitigate impacts to coastal communities

O P P O R T U N I T I E S R E C E I V I N G B A S I N S

Nutrient Distribution

Salinity and Sediment Dynamics

O P P O R T U N I T I E S R I V E R S I D E

T H E S Y S T E M O V E R V I E W

System coverage is from the Mississippi Gulf Coast to the Sabine River in Texas Utilizes Real Time Data from Multiple Sources • NOAA, USGS, State of

Louisiana, USACE Ingests Multiple parameters for situational awareness and analysis of coastal conditions • salinity, wind, temperature,

rainfall, etc.

I M P L E M E N TAT I O N O F M O R P H O D Y N A M I C M O D E L

W E S T B A Y A N A L O G M O D E L

To West Bay (Receiving Basin)

Sept 7 2012 Oct 7 2013

• WEST BAY DIVERSION

Source: Gulf Restoration Network

M.R.

West Bay West Bay

I M P L E M E N TAT I O N O F M O R P H O D Y N A M I C M O D E L

I M P L E M E N TAT I O N O F M O R P H O D Y N A M I C M O D E L

W E S T B A Y M O D E L D O M A I N

Logistics • Requirements for Forecasted Model Boundaries • Useful Predictions from Model Output • Operational Considerations

I M P L E M E N TAT I O N O F M O R P H O D Y N A M I C M O D E L

W E S T B A Y M O D E L D O M A I N

B O U N D A R Y C O N D I T I O N S R I V E R I N E I N P U T

B O U N D A R Y C O N D I T I O N S S A L I N I T Y F O R O P E R A T I O N O F F R E S H

W A T E R D I V E R S I O N S

B O U N D A R Y C O N D I T I O N S U P S T R E A M S E D I M E N T C O N C E N T R A T I O N

P R E D I C T I O N

B O U N D A R Y C O N D I T I O N S T I D A L P R E D I C T I O N

B O U N D A R Y C O N D I T I O N S W A V E B O U N D A R Y

B O U N D A R Y C O N D I T I O N S G R I D D E D W I N D A N D P R E S S U R E

P R E D I C T I O N

M O D E L O U T P U T C O M P A R I S O N O F O B S E R V E D V S .

P R E D I C T E D O U T P U T

M O D E L O U T P U T P O I N T O U T P U T F O R L O C A L A N A L Y S I S

M O D E L O U T P U T G R I D D E D O U T P U T F O R B A S I N W I D E

A N A L Y S I S

M O D E L O U T P U T T I M E - S E R I E S O U T P U T

M O D E L O U T P U T F I N A L D E P T H

M O R P H O L O G I C A L F O R E C A S T

Total predicted estimate of sediment volume deposited over a receiving basin from forecasted flood event Predicted sediment to water ratio Diverted water’s impact to coastal communities

O P E R AT I O N A L C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

• Ground truthing Availability of real time measurements for

‘ground truthing’ or validation of predictions – morphology and WQ

• Warm States Frequency of Model Runs to maintain

warm states Bathymetry for Morphology

O P E R AT I O N A L C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

Data Management System Server Requirements Scheduled Tasks Frequency of Results

C O M M E N T S / Q U E S T I O N S