DRRM with Project NOAH

AMF Lagmay

UP Resilience Institute

Disruptive Technology

•A disruptive technology is one that displaces an established technology and shakes up the industry or a ground breaking product that creates a completely new industry.

Disruptive Science

•A disruptive scientific system is one that displaces an established methodologyand shakes up the industry or a ground breaking approach that creates a completely new order.

Key Elements that spell the difference in our DRRM efforts • Probabilistic Risk Assessment

• Open Data

• Hazards-Specific, Area-Focused, and Time-Bound warnings

AVOIDING DISASTERS

Based on weather forecasts and

near-real time informationBased on awareness of hazards,

education indivuals and access to

accurate hazard maps

STORM SURGE HAZARD MAP

EvacuationCenters hit by Yolanda Storm

Surge

EvacuationCenters

PRE-YOLANDA (2010)DETERMINISTIC HAZARD MAP PROBABILISTIC

STORM SURGE HAZARD MAP

70 % of evacuation centers in Tacloban were hit by storm surges

Brgy Andap

566 people were placed in an evacuation center overwhelmed by debris flows (This picture) which is a type of landslide

No amount of accurate warning will work if hazard maps are inappropriate

Probabilistic Multi-Scenario-based Multi Hazard Map

LandscapeStorm surge Level 1

Storm surge Level 2Storm surge Level 3

Storm surge Level 4

Landslide Hazard5-year rain returnFlood scenario25-year rain returnFlood scenario

100-year rain returnFlood scenarioMulti-Hazard MapMulti-Scenario Based

Interviews and expert opinion-based susceptibility map

5 –year rain return flood

25 –year rain return flood

100 –year rain return flood

Open Data

Op

en G

overn

me

nt

Op

en A

cces

s

Transdisciplinary

Multidisciplinary

Interdisciplinary(Scientific, Engineering

fields)

NGA

Open Knowledge

Crop InsuranceUP Resilience Institute

UP NOAH

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Weather Manila Weather Manila

Saturday Saturday and Sunday

Weather ManilaWeather Manila

Data from EM-DAT

Project

1999Cherry HillsLandslides

60 deadAntipolo

2009OndoyFlood

(10.99 m rise in WL)

465 deadMetro Manila

2006Guinsaugon

Landslide1126 dead

2006Durian

Landslide1399 dead

2011Pedring &

QuielFlood

97 deadCentralLuzon

2012Habagat

Flood(9.49 m rise in WL)

0 deadMarikina

(pop. 424,150)

2012PabloFlood

(6-7 m rise in WL)

0 deadCDO

(pop. 602,088)

2012Pablo

Landslide(Debris Flows)

500+ deadNew BataanCompostelaValley

2013Habagat

Flood(8.84 m rise in WL)

0 deadMarikina

(pop. 424,150)

2013Haiyan

Storm Surge2671 dead

Tacloban(pop. 221,174)

1375 dead Tanauan(pop. 50,119)

902 deadPalo

(pop. 62,727)

2014Habagat

Flood(8.74-m rise in WL)

0 deadMarikina

(pop. 424,150)

2014Ruby

Storm Surge0 dead

1664 housestotally

destroyedBrgy. Daram

(pop. 41,322)

2014AgatonFlood

2 deadButuan

(pop. 309,709)

2014Seniang

Flood(7.7-m rise in WL)

1 deadTagoloan(pop. 63,850)

2013Haiyan

Storm Surge31 deadEstancia (pop.62,690)

34 deadCarles

(pop.42,666)

San Francisco3 dead

(pop. 47,357)

2004Dingalan

Landslides(Debris Flows)

135 deadDingalan

(Debris Flows)390 deadInfanta

2008FrankFlood

644 deadIloilo City(pop. 424,619

FAILED DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION VS. DISASTERS AVERTEDFLOOD LANDSLIDE STORM SURGE FAILED DISASTER MANAGEMENT

DISASTERS AVERTED

DIS

AST

ERS

AV

ERTE

DFA

ILED

DIS

AST

ER M

AN

AG

EMEN

T

2011Sendong

Flood1268 dead

CDO &Iligan

2009PepengFlood

PangasinanLa UnionIlocos SurLandslide

CAR465 dead

2015InengFlood

(7.8-m rise in WL)

Abra River, Ilocos0 dead

(6.2-m rise in WL)

Laoag1 dead

Pro

ject

NO

AH

RA

10

12

1

PD

RA

-ND

RR

MC

RA

97

29

FAILED DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION VS. DISASTERS AVERTEDFLOOD LANDSLIDE STORM SURGE FAILED DISASTER MANAGEMENT

DISASTERS AVERTED

DIS

AST

ERS

AV

ERTE

DFA

ILED

DIS

AST

ER M

AN

AG

EMEN

T

2015Lando Debris

Flows0 Dead

Gabaldon(pop. 32,246)

Lando FloodsPampanga

Bulacan

2015Nona Debris

Flows0 Dead

Gabaldon(pop. 32,246)

Lando FloodsPampanga

Bulacan

2015Nona

Storm Surge(3 m height)

Source: Cedric Daep

Legaspi0 Dead

2016Ferdie

SupertyphoonCat 5

Batanes0 Dead

2016Karen

TyphoonCat 4Bato,

Catanduanes2 Dead

From Heart Attackand Epilepsy

2016Lawin

SuperTyphoonCat 5

Lubuagan, Kalinga

5 Dead

Rest of Luzon14 Dead total

in different areas

2016Nina

TyphoonCat 5

Polangui,AlbayFlood2 Dead

13 Dead total in different areas

End

of

NO

AH

fro

m P

DR

A-N

DR

RM

C

2017Urduja

LandslideNaval, Biliran

42 Dead Biliran

14 missing

2017VintaFlood

(9.83 m rise in WL)

CDO0 Dead

2017Vinta

Debris FlowsTubod, Lanao Norte

FloodZamboanga del Sur240 and scores missing

AG

OS

Lau

nch

2018OmpongLandslide

Ucab, Itogon78 and countingOngoing Search

and Retrieval

2018Post-Ompong

LandslideNaga City, Cebu

72 and countingOngoing Search

and Retrieval