drought preparedness planning: an instrument for drought impacts mitigation
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Drought Preparedness Planning: an instrument for drought impacts mitigation. Mohamed Bazza, Sr Officer, NRL. drought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Drought Preparedness Planning:an instrument for drought impacts mitigation
Mohamed Bazza, Sr Officer, NRL
drought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard.
drought frequency and
severity increasing as a result of climate
change
drought definition
“significant deficiency of precipitation from "normal" over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector”
drought should not be confused with aridity, water scarcity and stress, desertification, water shortage, etc.
Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought
MeteorologicalAgricultural
Hydrological
Socio-economic
Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)
Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management
Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts
Time/Duration of the event
passive management of drought as a Crisis
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln-Nebraska, USA
crisis management implications
- reactive, post-impact, drought has taken its toll- response: costly, untimely, poorly targeted, poorly
coordinated, ineffective- decreases self-reliance, promotes dependence on
government and donors, … greater vulnerability
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability (natural) (social)
drought risk management
- pro-active, less damages for same drought level- response: less costly, timely, targeted/equitable, effective- resilience/self-reliance increase, sustainability
drought preparedness plan
set of measures and actions to be taken before, during and after drought with the objective of mitigating impacts and conflicts arising from drought
the plan of action is prepared before drought occurs
the measures and actions are taken by government, farmers, herders, fishermen, individual citizens, industry and others,
The measure concern priority, key sectors of the economy that are directly affected by drought (water resources, crop production, livestock, forestry, aquaculture, etc.)
cycle of disaster management
Components of Drought Risk Analysis
(social factors)(natural event)
A New Paradigm for Drought Management
1. Monitoring/early warning
Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices linked to impacts and triggers
2. Risk and impact assessment
Who and what is at risk and why
3. Mitigation and response (risk management)
Actions/programs that reduce risk and impacts and enhance recovery
components of a drought preparedness plan
1. Monitoring and Early Warning
Monitoring and early warning committee
A. Establish drought management areas
B. Inventory data quantity, quality from current observation networks
C. Determine data needs of primary users
D. Develop a drought monitoring system
F. Develop or modify current data and information delivery systems
2. Risk and Impact Assessment
Risk and impact assessment Committee
Task 1: Conduct a Drought Impact Assessment
Task 2: Rank the Most Pressing Impacts
Task 3: Conduct a Vulnerability Assessment
Task 4. Identify Risk Management Options (actions/activities to do for eliminating or reducing risk)
Task 4. Prioritize Risk Management Options (based on criteria agreed to)
Drought Task Force
Monitoring
CommitteeRisk Assessment
Committee
Working Groups
Assessment Reports
Situation Reports
Polic
y Di
rect
ion
Situ
atio
n R
epor
tsAssessm
ent ReportsPolicy Direction
Drought Plan Organizational
Structure
Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts
H=Historical C=Current P=Potential
Costs and losses to agricultural producersAnnual and perennial crop lossesDamage to crop qualityIncome loss for farmers due to reduced crop yieldsReduced productivity of croplandInsect infestationPlant diseaseWildlife damage to cropsIncreased irrigation costsCost of new or supplemental water resources
H C P
Economic
Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts
H=Historical C=Current P=Potential
Hydrological effectsLower water levels in reservoirs, lakes and pondsReduced flow from springsReduced streamflowLoss of wetlandsEstuarine impactsIncreased ground water depletion, land subsidence, reduced rechargeWater quality effects
H C P
Environmental
Checklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought Impacts
H=Historical C=Current P=Potential
HealthMental and physical stressHealth-related low-flow problemsReductions in nutritionLoss of human lifePublic safety from forest and range firesIncreased respiratory ailmentsIncreased disease caused by wildlife concentrations
H C PSocial Impacts
Impacts Actions AgenciesTriggers
Identify and
prioritize
What can be done?
Indices or indicators
Who is responsible?
3-DimensionalMeasures/Actions
e.g. Water Resources
Reactive
Short-
term
long-
termProactive
Approac
h
cate
gory
supp
ly
incr
ease
dem
and
red
ucti
on
impa
ct m
inim
izat
ion
sector
UrbanAgriculturalIndustrial
Recreative
Adapted from Rossi (2000)
Emergenc
y
Implementing a Drought Plan
- Legislation may be required for implementation
- Implementing agencies to includes activities of their concern into their work plans and budgets
- additional funds may be required to secure implementation by relevant agencies
- task force to monitor implementation through periodical reports; periodic evaluation
- Periodic updating of the plan may be necessary
- Final evaluation and review of the plan for the following season
Political will is the foundation of drought policy innovation
Integrated drought/climate monitoring is key to early warning, in parallel with a comprehensive decision support system
Drought planning, fully integrated with stakeholder participation, is critical to moving society from drought vulnerability to drought resilience
Drought planning must be integrated across spatial scales
Drought policy ‘guidelines’ are critical for adaptation to local situations, e.g., institutional capacity, sectoral impacts, vulnerabilities, resource constraints.
Key Messages
Thank you
Merci