drought monitor conference “the drought monitor and the grain market” dtn bryce anderson senior...
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Drought Monitor Conference“The Drought Monitor and the Grain Market”
DTN
Bryce Anderson Senior Ag Meteorologist
DTN Corp., Omaha402-399-6419
DTN (Data Transmission Network)
business-to-business info weather, commodity markets, news
80,000 clients U.S. and Canada Info via satellite and for-pay web delivery
Specialized forecasts and analysis U.S. and World (South America, China, Europe, Australia, Canada)
The Market Does Watch Weather
• Spring through Early Summer • Planting through Full Growth/Start Reproduction • Corn—Pollination • Soybeans—Blooming• Corn—60 cents per bushel “weather premium” • Soybeans--$1.00 per bushel “weather premium”
“Weather Premium in 2005”
• Corn--$6.50 Billion • 60 cents/bushel x 10.86 billion bushels production
• Soybeans--$3.00 Billion • $1/bushel x 3.00 billion bushels production
Drought Monitor Re Grain Markets
• A “validator”—not an indicator
• Industry Use—approx. 20 per cent
• Why??• Delayed Publish Date vs Crop Ratings • Weather Forecast Updates
Drought Monitor/Grain Price Action
• July 18 Dec corn settles $2.70
• July 19 Dec corn settles $2.59
• July 20 Dec corn settles $2.52 ¼
• July 21 Dec corn settles $2.44 ¾ (DM July 19 release)
D.M./Grain Markets in the Future
• Re-Define Ag Drought??
• Change from Validator to Indicator• Possible Earlier-Week Publish Date • Regional Focus on Prime Grain Areas (ex: Corn Belt) • Ag/Seed Industry Input?
• Above Dependent on Drought Monitor “Mission Definition”
Drought Monitor Conference“The Drought Monitor and the Grain Market”
DTN
Bryce Anderson Senior Ag Meteorologist
DTN Corp., Omaha402-399-6419