Drought Management Centre

for Southeastern Europe DMCSEE

Contents

• Drought in SE Europe

• DMCSEE background

• DMCSEE partners and project

• Sustainability of the project results – permanent DMCSEE

How will farming in the SE EU be affected by climate change?

Farming will be most affected by

droughts in the

southern and south-eastern regions.

Source: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector AGRI-2006-G4-05, AEA Energy & Environment and ,Universidad de Politécnica de Madrid, 2007

Drought in SE Europe is not solely the matter of

climate change

Problem identification – recent updates

Bulgaria: June 10, 2009 – wheat output to fall by 20% due to dry conditions

Drought in Slavonia, Croatia: May 24, 2009 -agriculture hit by drought;90 days lack of rain

Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe

Background

DMCSEE initiative – “top-down” approach

October 2004: A “Balkan Drought Workshop” in Poiana/Brasov (RO), co-sponsored by the UNCCD

Outcome: establishment of a Working Group to formulate a proposal that identified the needs and further actions for laying the foundation of the Balkan Sub-regional Drought Management Centre.

DMCSEE BackgroundApril 2006: “2nd technical workshop” in Sofia (BG)

Participants: UNCCD focal points, permanent representatives with the WMO + observers from UNCCD and WMO

Outcomes:

1) Framework for the preparation of a project proposal on the establishment of a Drought Management Centre for South-Eastern Europe (DMCSEE) within the context of the UNCCD,

2) Further steps towards the establishment of DMCSEE.

3) Decision on DMCSEE host (September 2006)

2012 – permanent center?

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

15 partners from 9 countries

Total project budget 2.2 M€

Not all countries participate!

(not all countries are eligible)

Environmental Agency of Slovenia Slovenia (lead partner)Slovenian Institute of Hop Research andBrewing SloveniaHungarian Meteorological Service HungaryVITUKI Environmental Protection andWater Management Research Institute HungaryDirectorate for Environmental Protectionand Water Management of Lower TiszaDistrict HungaryInstitute of Soil Science “NikolaPoushkarov” BulgariaNational Institute of Meteorology andHydrology BulgariaAgricultural university of Athens GreeceGEORAMA (non-governmental and non-profit organization) GreeceMeteorological and Hydrological Service CroatiaRepublic Hydrometeorological Service ofSerbia SerbiaHydrometeorological Institute ofMontenegro MontenegroHydrometeorological Service FYROMInstitute for Energy, Water andEnvironment Albania

Water use in agriculturesouthern European countries have the highest water use for irrigation.

It represents around 78 % of the total abstraction in southern Accession Countries and 80 % of their consumptive uses, and 51

% of the total abstraction in southwestern European countries which represents around 65 % of their consumptive uses.

industry11%

public use18%

energy33%

agriculture38%

Europe

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Practical experience with crop-water balance model WinIsareg Irrigation scheduling

Why using WinIsareg (Pereira et al, 2003)?

• soils divided into several layers;

• large selection of irrigation methods;

• results: variety of data

- problems with data

CROP DATA

dates of phenological stages

SOIL DATA

data for different soil layers

CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA

humidity, wind, sunshine…

Etp: in Slovenia we will use Penman-Monteith metod

Impact of climate variability & drought on yield and irrigation requirements

Different irrigation techniques

Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project

Regional implementation of the Standardized Precipitation Index

A statistical method for processing precipitation data; fits the data to local distribution

SPI is independent of both the location and the range of values

- > different seasons and climate areas are represented on an equal basis.

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

From regional to local implementationStep 1 Calculation of SPI

Stpe 2 Mapping of SPI

Step 3 Dissemination

Map for SPI3 (30.9.2006)

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project

Overview of existing procedures for climatological mapping

risk = hazard x vulnerability

HAZARD

VULNERABILITY

RISK

(Source: MEDROPLAN)

Both, natural hazard due to climate variability, and more subjective vulnerability, cause risk of drought impacts

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Modelling vulnerability (approach 1)

Factors that increase vulnerability

in agriculture:

- soil water holding capacity

- terrain slope and aspect

- land use / land cover

- access to irrigation infrastructure

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Concept of risk

Alternative formulation (approach 2):risk = loss x probability of occurence

Loss due to drought impact in € - > risk is equal to “daily financial risk” (insurance?)

Loss of crop yield - > risk assessment with help of crop yield model?

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Impact data:

Data of crop yield losses

Example –

summer drought 2006 in Slovenia

Archive of administration for

civil protection and disaster

relief

Concept of risk

Impact data

Data of crop yield losses – historical data (bulletins, agricultural reports...)

- > preparation of SE regional drought impacts data base

Concept of risk

Mission of DMCSEE?Understanding of the problem

Regional drought & regional vulnerability to drought impacts

Proper Planning

Informed decision making (promote and strengthen the capacity for drought preparedness)

set-up permanent Drought Management Centre for SE Europe

exchange of knowledge, experience

and best practice on drought issues (SEE

network)

exchange of knowledge, experience

and best practice on drought issues (SEE

network) raise awareness of

decision makers, relevant stakeholders and end

users about importance of effective drought

preparedness, monitoring and management.

Future role of DMCSEE ?

Drought Risk Reduction Effective Actions

Long-Term Strategy for adaptation (of agriculture) to drought

• Preparedness to improve the effectiveness of response and recovery, such as establishing

drought early-warning systems.

• Mitigation measures to reduce the impact of drought prior to their occurrence.

• Adaptation strategies to prepare for and cope with the potential impacts of drought in climate variability and climate change.

Recently, we have started to publish Drought Bulletin for SE Europe. Bulletin contains following sections:

Hot spot - short summary, possibly including a figure. It aims at very short insight of possible circumstances of drought at the time of issue. Additional and auxiliary information (such as methology used, more detailed information on water balance or temperature situation) Report on impacts; content of this section is based on information available in electronic media on the internet. To improve the information, you are most welcome to participate by informing us on drought impacts in the current season in your region. Send your contribution and comments through our  contact.  Also any other comments on the bulletin content would be highly appreciated.

Please find published issues of bulletin on the web.

Visit DMCSEE web page for updatehttp://www.dmcsee.org/en/drought_bulletin/