drought impact & vulnerability assessment
TRANSCRIPT
Caroline King-Okumu (Consultant)
Drought Impact & Vulnerability Assessment
https://www.ceh.ac.uk/international-environmental-research
CEH Mission:To undertake world-class research of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems that underpins evidence-based decisions and innovation by policy-makers and businesses, and engages with people, supporting sustainable development and improving society’s environmental legacy.
CEH works with institutes of hydrology and ecology and other international partners from around the world. The shared objective of these collaborations is to exchange and build national capabilities addressing 3 major global societal and environmental challenges:
▪ Securing the Value of Nature
▪ Building Resilience to Environmental Hazards
▪ Managing Environmental Change
Acknowledgement: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Overview:
▪ Intro to drought impact & vulnerability assessment▪ 3 dimensions of vulnerability to drought▪ Rapid review of practitioner experiences▪ Strategic recommendations for policy▪ ….What next?
Drought impacts across sectors of the economy
Meteorological Drought
Agricultural Drought
Hydrological Drought
Socio-economic Drought
Water demand
Water Storage deficit
Increase irrigation
Emergency solutions: water vending, price rises, relief aid, routine management systems shut down
Impact spiral:
Maladaptations…
Does a meteorological drought have to be an economic disaster?
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Drought Severity
Assessment of Drought Vulnerability & Impact
Predicted Impact
Assessed Impact
Impact with SLM
Expon. (Predicted Impact)
Expon. (Impact with SLM)
Indicators used to create the global drought risk map (Carrao et al, 2016)
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Monthly precipitation totals from the Full Data Reanalysis Monthly Product Version 6.0 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) (Becker et al., 2013).
▪ Global agricultural lands in the year 2000
▪ Gridded population of the world, version 4 (GPWv4) (estimates for the 2010)
▪ Gridded livestock of the world (GLW), v2.0 (reference year 2005)
▪ Baseline water stress (BWS) (baseline year of 2010) (Gassert et al., 2014a,b). hydrological catchment polygons from the Global Drainage Basin Database (GDBD) (Masutomi et al.,
2009).
Economic- Energy Consumption per Capita - Agriculture (% of GDP)- GDP per capita (current US$)- Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of total
population)
Social- Rural population (% of total population)- Literacy rate (% of people ages 15 and above) - Improved water source (% of rural population with access) - Life expectancy at birth (years) - Population ages 15–64 (% of total population) - Refugee population by country or territory of asylum (% of
total population) - Government Effectiveness Country Negative 2013 WGI - Disaster Prevention &Preparedness (US$/Year/capita)
Infrastructure- Agricultural irrigated land (% of total agricultural land) - % of retained renewable water - Road density (km of road per 100 sq. km of land area)
Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability = Risk
Global Drought Risk Map
Source: Carrao et al, 2016
H x E x V = Risk
Detail of global vulnerability indicators (Carrao et al, 2016)
On the ground, vulnerability to drought is complex, context-specific and multi-faceted.
So: - how can we assess it?- what options do we have?
3 dimensions of impact & vulnerability assessment:
(Meteorological Hazard)
1. Agriculture & ecosystems
2. Water demand / availability
3. Economy, & livelihoods
Tools for drought vulnerability assessment: socio-economic
Approach Tools & methods Available Guidance Materials
People-
centred:
economic
growth,
resilience &
livelihoods
▪ Participatory rapid appraisal
▪ Living standards, household
income & poverty surveys
▪ National wealth accounts &
GDP
▪ Value chains & multipliers
▪ Economics of resilience
▪ Ecosystem service valuation: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-
445X/7/4/142/pdf
▪ UNISDR: Drought Risk Reduction Framework and Practices: https://www.unisdr.org/files/11541_DroughtRiskReduction2009library.pdf
▪ UNEP PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and
Adaptation to Climate Change:https://www.adaptation-undp.org/sites/default/files/downloads/provia-guidance-nov2013.pdf
▪ CARE Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis Handbook:https://www.care.org/sites/default/files/documents/CC-2009-CARE_CVCAHandbook.pdf
▪ GFDRR Post Disaster Needs Assessment Guidelines:https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/post-disaster-needs-assessments-guidelines-volume
▪ International Household Survey Network materials: www.ihsn.org
▪ RAND Guide to the resilience dividend valuation model:https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2100/RR2130/RAND_RR21
30.pdf
Approach Tools & methods
Hydro-
meteorological:
water balance
accounting
▪ SDG 6.4.2 water stress methods
▪ Water resource accounting
▪ Global and catchment
hydrologic models/GIS
▪ PGIS, mobile devices & sensors
Available Guidance Materials
▪ Water accounting:
https://seea.un.org/content/seea-water
▪ UN SDG 6.4.2 Water Stress Methodological Guide: http://www.unwater.org/publications/step-step-methodology-monitoring-
water-stress-6-4-2/
http://www.unwater.org/publications/progress-on-level-of-water-stress-642/
▪ Model guidance:
SWAT: https://swat.tamu.edu/;
WEAP: https://www.weap21.org/;
GWAVA: https://www.ceh.ac.uk/gwava;
InVEST: https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/invest/;
PCR GLOBWB, https://www.isimip.org/impactmodels/details/104/ ;
DRASTIC)
▪ Inter-comparisons of models:http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2762900
https://www.ceh.ac.uk/gwava
Partners
Institute of Water and Hydropower Research, Beijing
General Institute of Water and Planning, Beijing
National Institute for Hydrology, Roorkee, India
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, UK
Tools for drought vulnerability assessment: hydrological
Tools for drought vulnerability assessment: landApproach Tools & methods Available Guidance Materials
Land/
ecosyste
m-based:
agro-
ecology
▪ Remote sensing:
climate, NDVI &
landcover maps
▪ Production
statistics
▪ Field surveys
▪ Crop-water
response & other
bio-economic
models
▪ Economic
valuation
▪ Ecosystem-based Adaptation: http://pubs.iied.org/17460IIED/
▪ Economic. Assessment of Adaptation to Climate Extremes: https://www.neareast.org/download/materials_center/WorkingPaper_KaffrineEconVal_En.pdf
▪ UN System of Environmental Economic Accounting: www.seea.un.org
▪ UNCCD LDN Neutrality:https://www.unccd.int/publications/scientific-conceptual-framework-land-degradation-neutrality-report-science-policy
▪ Economics of Land Degradation:http://www.eld-initiative.org/fileadmin/pdf/ELD-UserGuide_07_web.pdf
▪ UNDP/GEF/SLM Indicators:http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Environment%20and%20Energy/sustainable%20land%20management/
KM-Land_indicatorsguidancematerials.pdf
3 dimensions of impact & vulnerability assessment:
(Meteorological Hazard)
1. Agriculture & ecosystems
2. Water demand / availability
3. Economy & livelihoods
People-centred: livelihoods, economies resilience
Hydrological: water demand vs availability
Land/(agro) ecosystem-
based
Global Vulnerability Assessment Approaches: Review
Source: Carrao et al, 2016
Practitioner provided input to preliminary review
H x E x V = Risk
Summary Comparative Findings
• Asia: Vulnerability to drought is increasing due to deepening challenges to assess & recharge groundwater deficits. In India: increased responsibilities for assessment decentralized to State level.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Innovative approaches to assessing economics of vulnerability & resilience. Major gaps remaining in hydrological monitoring systems to assess and manage hydrological drought in dry areas.
• Latin America: Major national achievements in assessment of water resource vulnerability following investments in regional technical cooperation e.g. in Brazil.
Administrative divisions
CountriesBasin
councils
Continental institutions
UN
Resource user associations
Strategic recommendations 1:Inclusive approach across sectors, scales & timeframes
(Ortega-Gaucin et al. 2018)
Strategic recommendations 2:Action oriented & systemic shift to risk mgt, resilience & SD
Mexican example:
➢Engaging basin committees, municipalities & water resource users
➢Decentralized approach
➢ Involving local universities
Strategic recommendations 3:Iterative pragmatic approach deepening consideration of SDGs
Targets Indicators
1.5By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters (see also 13.1)
1.5.1: Number of deaths, missing persons and persons affected by disaster per 100,000 people
1.5.2: Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP)
1.5.3: Number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies
6.4 By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity and substantially reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity
6.4.2: Level of water stress: freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources
15.3By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world
15.3.1Proportion of land that is degraded over total land area
Toolkits Content:
1. Mapping and monitoring process design for vulnerability indicators: institutional & stakeholder analysis
2. Moving from vulnerability mapping to modelling and vulnerability scenarios for action planning?
3. From maps and models to money: assessing the economics of vulnerability to drought?
Accessing and Applying Available Tools:
➢ Menu of approaches & methods?
➢ Stepwise guide?
➢ VA checklist? (more cross-sectoral?)
➢ Compendium?
➢ Handbook/sourcebook?
➢ Dashboard: Vulnerability accounts?
➢ SDG guidance for drought-affected communities?
➢ Pilot demonstrations?
What next for the UNCCD Drought Toolbox?
