drought: agricultural impacts and industry...
TRANSCRIPT
Drought: agricultural impacts and industry responsesDr Mike Storey
Head of R&D, AHDB Potatoes
4 & 5 June 2011
-500.00
-400.00
-300.00
-200.00
-100.00
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Impact on revenue of variable yield (£m) (AHDB)
Series2
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK crop yields (t/ha) (Defra)
Wheat Spring barley Winter barley
wet>dry dull>wet dry>wetdry dry
J Watts AHDB
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
t/h
a
£ p
er t
on
ne
GB annual potato production and average price
Average ware price Average net yield
1975/76 drought
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
t/h
a
£ p
er t
on
ne
GB annual potato production and average price (reworked to RPI 2013)
Average ware price (2013 £s) Average net yield
1975/76 drought. In the potato industry psyche8X increase in price
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
t/h
a
£ p
er t
on
ne
GB annual potato production and average price
Average ware price Average net yield
Met Office - Droughts across lowland England
Structural change 1970-74 2010-14
Area (ha) 224,000 121,000
Production (mt) 6.66 5.55
Yield (t/ha) 30.8 44.7
Growers 40,500 2,300
Area/grower (ha) 5.2 50.5
Capital investmentContractual commitments
Quality requirements Risk mitigation
GB potato industry structural change
Photos: Gary Naylor
IMPACT FOR GROWERS: this could mean a 36% increase in irrigation need for the West Midlands and 56% for the East Midlands
http://www.promar-international.com/_userfiles/publications/files/Phase%202%20Report%20-Impact%20of%20drought%20for%20potato%20growers.pdf
56% of all irrigated potato fields arecurrently located within areas classified as being at ‘high’ risk, and 32% are at ‘moderate’risk.
Baseline assessment for water resource status @ November 2011.
Source and data copyright Met Office
SMD’s
Modelled scenarios sites and planting
Map risk to production
Impacts on Quality
Lack water for early season
irrigation (tuber initiation)
control of Common Scab.
Lack water for late season irrigation –
crop bulking – tuber size and dry matter.
Quality for end markets
Dry (and associated higher temps) - early
maturity and dormancy break – challenge
for sprout control
Impacts on Quality
Dry conditions at harvest –
increased risk of bruising and
damage over harvester -
limited soil cushioning.
Irrigate dry soils before harvest to minimise risk
• Ingress of wound pathogens
affecting storage out-turn
• Waste - direct and indirect
• Consumer dissatisfaction
Projected change in land suitability for
rainfed potato production
Water resource management and irrigation are
crucial to the long term sustainability of the
industry
• Variety selection (drought and common scab tolerant – for pre-
packs) or switch to combinable crops
• Avoid growing on the lightest soils as these drain quickly and have
low water holding capacity
• Adopt scheduling and ensure irrigation systems are working at
optimum efficiency by reducing water losses (control pipe leakage,
appropriate operating pressure, filtering system).avoid windy days
• Restrict potato area to match available water resources after taking
into account potential abstraction restriction risks
• Consider investment in reservoirs to meet water demand
• Look for ways to trade/share water resources by work collectively
with neighbouring growers
• Consider joining or setting up a local water abstraction group
Mitigation and Adaptation for potato businesses
Protected horticulture
Improve system efficiency but in
many situations automation
difficult.
Glass house and polytunnel
crops absolutely require reliable
supplies.
Some reservoirs - capital,
licences, treatment.
Many businesses limited space
and only store few days supply
Field crops
Few vegetables can be grown without need
for irrigation but such cases are the
exceptional (deep Fen silts). Nearly all onions,
carrot and parsnip are grown with irrigation
required in most years
Ornamentals grown in
containers to provide a good
root ball for transplanting can
neither survive long without
water nor achieve quality
standards
All outdoor salads require
irrigable land. Good water
supply is essential to meet
market requirements
Likely effects of drought on livestock
• Prolonged periods of low rainfall (weather)• Reduced pasture growth & pasture quality
• Increased reliance (and cost) on purchased feed
• Longer term effects of low rainfall (climate)• Potential change in land use: pasture to
cropping
• Uncertainty over global feed availability e.g. protein
• Change in cropping patterns to forage species more suited to drought conditions (e.g. Fescue x Lolium hybrids and deep rooting broad leaf plants)
• Local/regional Water Stress Index impacting on cost/potential to produce
Image www.coolcows.com.au
Direct effects on animals
• Risk of associated heat stress
• Dairy cattle (> 25°C or THI > 55)
• Intake reduces
• Milk yield and fat % reduce1
• Water intake increases2
• Often initial improvement in productivity• Reduced parasite (liver fluke) burden
• Supply of water• Often mains water available as back up to
local sources
• Tanking in as a last resort for some
1Hill and Wall, 2014, 2Murphy et al., 1983
Costs
• Alternative water source for drinking
• Need to buy in feed to substitute for lost forage
• Pasture renewal cost if plants die
• Very rare to need to sell stock
• Beef finishers mainly unaffected (buying feed and piping in water anyway)
Actions
• Breeding for more resilient grasses
• Plant deeper rooting grasses
• Use of alternative drought tolerant forages
• Use of cover crops
• Engineering solutions
• Guidance to farmers: http://beefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BRP-Managing-cattle-and-sheep-during-extreme-weather-events.pdf
ClimateEffective rainfall: 150
mm/yr.
PSMD max: 225 mm
Value of Irrigated
Agriculture : £51
M/yr
East Suffolk Holistic Water ManagementFelixstowe Peninsula Project
Irrigation demand: 9.5 M m3 (2011)
Growing at 2.3%/yr.
No new groundwater licences
Limited winter abstraction licences
Paul Bradford
Irrigation demand, East Suffolk: 9.5 M m3 (2011)Growing at 2.3%/yr.No new groundwater licencesLimited winter abstraction licences
• 850,000 m3 - 1,500,000 m3 storage
• 15 -20 km + mains pipe
• £2.5M - £4M
• 9 + Landowners
• 30 Ha + storage reservoirs
Felixstowe Peninsula Project Schematic
Reservoir and pipeline locations are representative only and subject to change
Barriers• Unique in UK
• Competing businesses working together
• New roles for Regulatory Authorities
• Cost
• Technical difficulty
Levers• Expertise (local and technical)
• Strong Abstractors Group (ESWAG)
• Good economic case (IRR. 10%-15%)
• Supportive Regulators (Environment
Agency, East Suffolk IDB)
• Determined Leadership (Suffolk County
Council)
Acknowledgements
AHDB colleagues:
Anne Stone
Jack Watts
Alice Sin, Jenny Bashford & Adrian Briddon
Kim Matthews & Liz Genever
Stephen Whelan & Ray Keating
Jerry Knox & Tim Hess - Cranfield University
Paul Bradford – Bradford & Brighton (Felixstowe Peninsula Project)