Presenting DRM Results: Helping Executives Make Sense of DRM

Aleksey S. Popelyukhin, Ph.D.

Foreword ........................................................................................................................ 2

Anatomy of a Presentation ............................................................................................ 2

Skeleton (Text) ....................................................................................................................... 2

Muscles (Charts) .................................................................................................................... 3Uncertainty ......................................................................................................................................... 3Ranking ............................................................................................................................................... 6Development & Trends ...................................................................................................................... 9Simulations ......................................................................................................................................... 13Allocations .......................................................................................................................................... 14Charts as Selection Tools! .................................................................................................................. 16Conventions, Expectations ................................................................................................................. 17

Skin (Animation) .................................................................................................................... 19

Brains (Logic Flow) ............................................................................................................... 19

Not To Do List ................................................................................................................ 20Ockham’s Razor ................................................................................................................................. 20Too Much Info .................................................................................................................................... 20Not Enough Info ................................................................................................................................. 21Dull Graphics ...................................................................................................................................... 21

Other Sources of Inspiration ......................................................................................... 21

Websites .................................................................................................................................. 21

Charting software .................................................................................................................. 22

Magazines ............................................................................................................................... 22

Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 22

Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... 23

Appendix 1 ...................................................................................................................... 24

Appendix 2 ...................................................................................................................... 24

Appendix 3 ...................................................................................................................... 24

Bibliography ................................................................................................................... 26

This paper has been written as a part of the “2003 CAS Working Party on Executive Level Decision Making using Dynamic Risk Modeling” research project (see Acknowledgements).

Foreword

Information… the most crucial ingredient of decision making.

Professionals are using more and more sophisticated tools to extract information from the data at hand. Unfortunately, those who are skilled in leadership, management and decision making – the senior management of a company – are not necessarily trained in advanced mathematics and statistics. Forgivably, the senior management team could quite possibly be unfamiliar with the concepts, terminology and notation used in modern financial analysis. Thus, it is up to actuaries – the most proficient DRM practitioners – to present results of their studies to the management in the most accessible and accurate way. Alas, it is easier said than done.

Presenting results of Dynamic Risk Modeling requires filigree techniques, deep knowledge of the subject and even some artistic skills in order to achieve that delicate balance of science and advertisement, which constitutes successful presentation. (Thinking of a presentation as a form of advertising may be new to actuaries, but an ability to sell the results of a study is quickly becoming a necessary skill). It’s a very narrow path indeed. One wrong choice in level of details or chart type or even color and the audience is lost. On the other hand, modern presenting tools are so rich and flexible that, with careful use of those tools, it is possible to express any thought, any notion, and any concept.

The following text is an attempt to create a guide for aspiring DRM presenters.

Anatomy of a Presentation

Skeleton (Text)

Any presentation is an attempt to express thoughts and deliver a message. And while visuals (charts, graphs and animations) on the slide help enormously, they are nevertheless just an aid. The text still remains the best tool for the job. For the high quality presentation, though, not any text suffices: the language of a presentation has to be precise, concise and help to emphasize.

Precise. Every statement in a presentation slide has to be correct: a presenter can not sacrifice accuracy for simplicity sake. It is not an easy task to formulate precise phrases for the audience that may not even be familiar with the terminology, but it has to be done. Perhaps, the best solution in this situation is to use analogies. However, analogies ought to be sophisticated enough and – sorry for the repetition – precise.

Concise. The text on the slides has to be laconic and succinct: it is practically impossible to get enough attention from the audience of multi-tasking, super-busy, patience-lacking, fast-reacting management types. The time invested in shortening every bullet in the presentation will pay back handsomely: food for thoughts is better digested when bits are concise.

Emphasize. Every presentation is an advertisement: the main message has to be emphatically accentuated. Indeed, a presenter is selling his point of view, conclusions of

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the study or recommendation for particular decision – there is nothing wrong with some emphasis.

Every presenter has three major time-tested presentation techniques at his disposal: analogy, humor and illustrations.

Analogy. Good analogy – like a flashlight – helps to highlight major points and focus on major features leaving out unnecessary details. Rarely used, but as effective is undeservingly forgotten negative analogy.

Humor. A smart, tasteful and appropriate joke can do wonders in capturing or restoring audience attention. And even if it doesn’t work, as a consolation, one may still contribute it to http://www.actuarialjokes.com and warn others.

Illustrations. Items such as charts, drawings, animations, diagrams are always very useful. The presenter’s skill, however, lies not only in using illustrations per se, but in not using too many of them. Careful selection of only the most meaningful ones will be greatly appreciated by the audience. The following chapters may help in designing such a selection.

Muscles (Charts)

There exists innumerable diversity of chart types. Not every chart design is suitable for every purpose, though. Presentation of DRM study results poses additional difficulties. DRM operates with some specific notions that are not considered commonplace by charting software designers. Therefore, the chart types needed to illustrate these DRM concepts are not readily available in commercial software packages (e.g., Excel and PowerPoint). Particularly challenging are three of them: uncertainty, development and ranking. Let’s look at some examples of the charts we designed to illustrate these and other DRM notions. We intentionally limited ourselves with Excel Chart engine as the most ubiquitous charting tool available practically to everyone1:

Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a tricky notion: hard to explain – harder to illustrate. We present several approaches that attempt to do it.

One approach, the most obvious one, is to chart the chances. It could be a bar chart (a histogram) or a line chart. Excel allows displaying a probability density function (pdf) or a cumulative density function (cdf) or both on the same chart.

The recipe: Excel’s standard dual-axes chart with all series but one displayed as bars and one series displayed as a line.

Suitable for: Distribution charts.

1 Charts designed with Excel Chart module can be reused in PowerPoint. In fact, illustrations in this article are hyperlinked to the PowerPoint document. Clicking (CTRL-clicking) on the chart loads ‘DRM Presentation.ppt’ and jumps to the corresponding slide. One can then double-click on the chart, edit its design and/or underlying data and reuse it in one’s own presentation.

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Profit distribution

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In some situations the graph presented above may contain more precision than the audience finds useful. Another way to represent information on the range of probable results is to display vanishing probabilities through the creative use of colors, or more precisely, shades of the same color fading into background.

The recipe: Excel’s standard bar chart with gradient fills (from any foreground color to the background color) and without borders.

Suitable for: Range of outcomes, expected values, spread.

One may expect that the audience’s eyes will subconsciously be drawn to the areas of higher color density, thus, focusing audience’s attention on the area of more probable outcomes (while still maintaining impression of the size of the whole range).

With the help of 3-D rotations it is possible to explain the relationship between the previous two illustration techniques. The series of charts below demonstrates how to associate shades of color with the likelihood levels.

The recipe: Start with a 3-D line chart colored with gradient fills and steadily changing its 3-D view parameters to convert it into 2-D bar chart.

Suitable for: Explanatory, illustrative or convention setting charts.

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.

Once the shading convention is established and understood it makes sense to use it for displaying random values and even random processes:

The recipe: One of the series on Excel’s gradient filled bar chart is converted to a Line.

Suitable for: Cash flows, reserves, payouts, uncertain values over time.

Range of Liability Cash Flow Over Time

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In some situations charting detailed probability distributions may not be necessary or even possible: a chart of probable ranges of outcomes may suffice. Usually it happens when there is a need for a higher level analysis or final conclusion (like the choice between possible scenarios or options) and/or when minute details are not really needed and could even be distracting.

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The simplest way to add information about the size of outcome ranges is to use error bars. Luckily, Excel supports error bars for both X and Y axes.

The recipe: Excel’s standard XY (scatter) plot with oversized (12 or more pts) markers. Specify additional series of numbers for minimum and maximum values of X and Y axes Error Bars

Suitable for: Functions of two uncertain variables.

LOBs Performance

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For a less precise, but (arguably) more impressive illustration of 2-D range of possible outcomes one may use Bubble chart. Excel supports only “spherical” rather than “elliptical” bubbles: there is no control over top and bottom or left and right radii of the bubble. Thus, asymmetric distributions are getting displayed incorrectly. Still, bubbles better represent uncertainty than dots

The recipe: Excel’s standard Bubble chart with area’s “3-D effect” option enabled. Use the “width of bubbles” option if a bubbles’ size is defined by standard deviation, and use the “area of bubbles” option if their size is defined by variance. To display the bubbles’ centers add an additional series with the small constant bubble size.

Suitable for: Functions of two uncertain variables.

LOBs Performance

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Ranking

Culturally, we have become accustomed only to extremes. Only “the largest”, “the fastest”, “the strongest” can attract our attention. No wonder, any decision maker would like to rank his options to choose “the best” one. This is not an easy task. Dynamic Risk Modeling output usually consists of simulated distributions. And, no matter how detailed and precise these distributions

6

are, it is often not clear which one is “better”. In other words, we can easily compare points on the line (fixed values), but it is not evident how to compare curves (random values).

Projected Combined Ratios with and without reinsurance

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Even more complicated is the task of comparing values in two dimensions. One scenario may be more profitable, but risky; another one less risky, but less profitable.

The recipe: Excel’s bubble chart can be used with a picture as a fill effect.

Suitable for: Illustration of indecisiveness.

LOBs Performance

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To compare scenarios with two or more important qualities, criteria must be selected. Selecting such criteria (which allows ranking scenarios while taking into account multiple aspects) is a special skill. However, once a criterion or scoring system or measurement is chosen, the DRM presenter may help visualize it.

Generally speaking, ranking criteria may be defined through several variables by quite sophisticated formulae: we leave this case to proprietary software specialized in visualization. However, frequently enough, a criterion could be expressed rather simply through the relationship of two variables and, thus, can be visualized through color-coding and/or additional grids.

Many criteria consist of just comparing one variable to another. This comparison could be in the form of division of one variable by another (“return” / “std. deviation”, “ROE”/ “Relative Capital Consumption”, etc) thus, generating a family of lines (Y/X=C) where the criterion score remains

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constant. These lines are nothing other than rays originating in the corner with ever increasing slope and can be visualized with the simple Plot Area Fill Effect.

The recipe: In the Format Plot Area/Fill Effects dialog box choose Two colors gradient with the Diagonal up shading style. A darker color should represent higher values of the criterion and a lighter color – lower values.

Suitable for: Functions of two uncertain variables.

LOBs Performance

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In the cases where the gradient fill is too subtle or too imprecise (chart corner is not (0,0) or a criterion is more complicated than the value of Y/X) the next logical step would be to paint areas of “indifference” – areas where criterion scores are acceptably close.

Our example is again for Y/X=C family of lines, but this method works for any expression.

The recipe: Excel’s standard Stacked Area chart where series are painted with the darkening shades of the same color.

Suitable for: Risk-reward charts.

A less intrusive and more flexible way to display areas of similar criterion scores is to chart one-parametric family of level curves. If the criterion is minimization of Y/X, draw lines Y/X=C for several values of C; if the criterion is expressed as Y2/X, draw a few parabolas Y2/X=C, etc…

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The recipe: Within Excel use smoothed custom line pattern without markers for the one-parametric family of lines.

Suitable for: Functions of two uncertain variables.

Interestingly enough, while DRM models effortlessly churn out hard-to-compare probability distributions for different scenarios, they usually do not produce distributions of the differences. Clearly, for the purpose of comparison, it would be extremely useful to the “net effect” of the change in strategy (i.e., buying reinsurance or changing investment mix or reallocating capital). Indeed, it is enormously hard to compare random values after their distributions were generated, while it is only a marginal effort to calculate their difference inside every simulation path. And it makes more sense, because this way one measures the differences of outcomes in the same situations represented by the same step of a simulation. Adding the differences to each stream of random numbers to produce the “net effect” evaluation would be both practical and useful for the comparison between the options.

Surely, any type of chart discussed in this chapter will be as useful for illustrating the “net effects” of selecting one option instead of another.

Net Effect

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There exist several techniques to emphasize development, that is, change over time. Unfortunately, the easiest one – an arrow pointing in the proper direction – is not part of the Excel Chart engine and has to be employed with the help of other software.

A gradual change in color and/or line width may serve as some kind of arrow substitution as illustrated below. Ideally, the viewer’s eyes will move from “unpleasant” reddish tones to the “calm” yellowish shades – exactly in the direction we want them to.

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Sometimes it is necessary to illustrate development of an uncertain value. In order to emphasize development as opposed to the full ranges of possibilities, it makes sense to use an established statistical convention: displaying probability distributions as fixed percentile boxes.

The recipe: Excel’s standard Stock Chart with 25th, 100th, 0 and 75th percentiles instead of Open-High-Low-Close prices. One can fill Up-Bars with the horizontal color preset.

Suitable for: Development of uncertain values over time, random processes.

Range of Liability Cash Flow Over Time(10 - 90 percentiles)

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Unfortunately, Excel’s Stock Charts are too inflexible to show multiple percentiles and they don’t allow additional information (like positions of the mean and median) to be displayed. An elegant workaround allows displaying points and lines that help to illustrate trends and development.

The recipe: Excel’s standard Area Chart allows displaying Y Error Bars with a Custom Error Amount: just enable them for the 50th percentile series.

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Suitable for: Development of uncertain values over time, random processes.

Range of Liability Cash Flow Over Time

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Another way to emphasize development and make the viewer’s eyes to move in the proper direction is a gradual change of color in the background.

The recipe: Use a vertical gradient to fill the Chart Area. Employ different line patterns to display different percentiles while not distracting the viewer from the main development display.

Suitable for: Development of uncertain values over time, random processes.GAAP RoE

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Using the same convention for displaying development of the random value one may compare two or more options. Beware of the viewer’s confusion – i.e., options displayed need to be distinctive.

The recipe: Use colors similar to background and low weights for benchmark scenario lines as opposed to bright colors and higher width lines for the alternative scenario.

Suitable for: Development of multiple uncertain values over time, options comparison.

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GAAP RoE (no-Reinsurance vs. Reinsurance)

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While on the topic of comparison: instead of scenarios one may compare assets to liabilities. The technique described above will suffice, but there are other options.

The recipe: Excel’s standard Bubble chart with two series: one for assets and one for liabilities.

Suitable for: Comparison of development of two uncertain values.

Asset - Liability Matching

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Surely, the notion of development immediately leads to the related notion of trends and forecasts. Excel provides a capability to add trend-lines to the chart. While not fully flexible (the user can’t create customized trend function and/or exclude data points from the trend calculation), it’s automatic and easily accessible.

The recipe: Excel’s standard Bubble chart with trend-lines and 2 points forecast for each series.

Suitable for: Comparison of development of two uncertain values.

Asset - Liability Matching

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Those not satisfied with Excel’s built-in trend-line options may build their own trend-lines

The recipe: While it looks like an elaborate line chart, it is actually a gradient filled Area Chart with the Drop Lines option enabled.

Suitable for: Emphasis on extrapolation of the trend.

Cash Flow Over Time

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Simulations

Displaying the raw simulation results rather than various statistics is complicated and rarely needed. The sheer volume of data from the DRM model’s simulation results will test the limits of Excel’s Chart Engine as well as the audience’s comprehension abilities. Nevertheless, a display of simulation outcomes can sometimes be quite impressive and may, at the very least, establish a reference point for the slides to follow.

The results of every single simulation are usually displayed as a point on a Scatter Chart. More often than not it is beneficial to color-code these data points according to some useful criteria. To assign different colors to different points one either should separate data into several series (which may pose some challenges) or write a simple VBA macro to do the job.

The recipe: Scatter Chart enhanced by VBA color assignment macro.

Suitable for: Illustration of density areas of simulated results.

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Allocations

A concept every manager is intimately familiar with is allocation: a set of positive values that add up to 100%. The only reason we will briefly discuss it here is the dynamic aspect of allocations. That is to say how an allocation of resources or assets will change depending on the options available to management and under review through the DRM study.

There are many ways to display an allocation: from a pie chart to a stack-up bar chart, but what is the best way to illustrate changes in allocation? We present a few types of charts. The choice is (as always) up to the user.

The most straightforward way to illustrate a change in allocation is to show multiple pie charts stacked one under another. Unfortunately, Excel doesn’t allow multiple pies on the same chart and dealing with multiple charts multiplies the effort.

The recipe: Two standard Pie charts resized and grouped together.

Suitable for: Change in allocation illustrations.

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Unfortunately, Excel doesn’t allow multiple pies on the same chart and dealing with multiple charts multiplies the effort. The solution is simple: replace pie charts with concentric “pie” rings.

The recipe: Excel’s standard Doughnut chart with two series.

Suitable for: Change in allocation illustrations.

Investment Strategies

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Another option is to use different variations of the bar charts placing related items in proximity to each other. A variation of that is to add a table of values for clarity.

The recipe: 3-D Column with a Cylindrical Shape chart with Data Labels.

Suitable for: Change in allocation illustrations, strategies comparison.

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The recipe: Clustered Cylindrical Column 3-D chart with the Data Table displayed.

Suitable for: Change in allocation illustrations, strategies comparison.

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When it is imperative to emphasize that all percentages add up to 100% a stacked-up chart comes to the rescue.

The recipe: 100% Stacked with 3-D Visual Effect chart.

Suitable for: Change in allocation illustrations, strategies comparison.

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In order to demonstrate changes in allocation for multiple stacks it may be wise to forgo 3-D effects and return to plain-vanilla columns.

The recipe: 100% Stacked Column chart with Series Lines option enabled.

Suitable for: Change in allocation illustrations.

Portfolio structure

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Other 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% 25.0% 12.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Charts as Selection Tools!

The work of a Dynamic Risk Modeler includes selection and fine-tuning multiple parameters while setting up DRM models. While some parameters are stand-alone values, others are better represented by curves. And what could be better than selecting and adjusting curves by moving points on the chart? Thankfully, Excel provides such a capability: movement of data points on the line chart modifies underlying Excel values.

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Payout Pattern

84.0%

86.0%

88.0%

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Avg

Min

Max

Industry

Selected

Supplied with the “guiding” curves (representing extremes, average and industry data) this chart becomes a great Visual Selection tool.

Conventions, Expectations

Even for the most seasoned DRM practitioner it takes some real effort to grasp information presented by different chart types. It takes much more time and effort for the audience (which is, supposedly, less familiar with the ways of displaying DRM conclusions) in the course of a short presentation to switch from one type of chart to another. A successful move from one chart to the next may require some gentle guidance and assistance from the presenter. It is always beneficial to assume that the audience is very bright but (unfortunately) has a limited Statistics and Simulations background. So, some effort to clarify the conventions you are using is appropriate. Prior to presenting an informative slide with an impressive chart, it makes perfect sense to familiarize the audience with the conventions you are using and clearly indicate where to look and what to watch for. An introductory slide with well-placed comment or two may do the trick.

Every type of chart potentially needs an “educational” companion slide. For some charts it is crucial to emphasize an axis and/or to briefly explain the nature of the values. Take, for example, Probability Distribution or Risk vs. Reward types of charts:

Probability Density Function

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.24

0.28

-60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Outcomes ($Mil)

Pro

ba

bili

ty

…20 to 25 Mil

Probability to lose 5 to 10 Mil…

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It may be necessary to define conventions for those charts that make creative use of lines, colors and shapes. The majority of the charts presented in the “Uncertainty”, “Development & Trend” and “Ranking” sections may significantly benefit form the “explanatory” slide immediately preceding them:

Even when conventions are well defined and understood, some chart types may require additional emphasis on expectations, since, on occasion, “behaviors” (like increase or decrease being monotonic or the slope or relative position of data points) should be of the bigger concern, rather than values. It makes sense to define these areas of concern in advance in a “teaser” type of slide:

Risk vs. Reward

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

$- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50

Mill

ion

s

Millions

Return

Std

. de

via

tio

n Good

Better

Better yet

The best

Preference

In fact, PowerPoint (within its “custom animation” feature) has the ability to display axis, grid, auxiliary lines and other chart elements sequentially with predefined pauses and even stops. A presenter may use this functionality to introduce conventions and set expectations prior to displaying actual data on the chart.

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Skin (Animation)

Animation is a very powerful illustrative tool. And while it is suitable in any presentation on any topic, it is invaluable for DRM presentations. Indeed, sometimes animation is the only way to illustrate uncertainty, and emphasize development or trend. The following chart is a plain line graph, but animated as a slow wipe from the left, it accentuates change over time and hints at the trend.

Run-Off Payout

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Bil

lio

ns

Similarly, a simple doughnut chart (see above) once animated as wedge by elements of category effectively emphasizes the change in allocation.

Brains (Logic Flow)

No technological trickery and razzle-dazzle can hide the absence of a presentation’s logical flow. As with a literary undertaking, a graphical presentation should follow the rules of good writing: it should have drama, development and conclusion. There are basically two ways to keep the audience interested: either start with the surprising conclusion and then explain step-by-step the way to arrive at it or by maintaining suspense and increasing tension as you go from the beginning to the astonishing end.

Most of the time, a presenter has to distill a DRM study of a “War and Peace” grandeur into the half hour comics strip. Without a transparent logical flow the audience may easily get lost.

To avoid confusion it is always a good idea to explain major logical steps to the audience. A flowchart or a diagram of the presentation goes a long way in helping the audience to follow the presenter’s logic. A bullet point slide with the agenda items listed can work in some cases. However, if the presentation logic branches out, it makes sense to color-code slides dedicated to different branches. For example, use blue titles on all slides about “Reinsurance Option 1” and green titles on all slides about “Reinsurance Option 2” etc…

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Not To Do List

Ockham’s Razor

Do not add graphs or any graphical image to your presentation just because they look “cool” or because everyone else does it. Use the following rule of thumb: “My chart deserves to be included only if I can explain what it illustrates with one simple phrase and there is an area on the chart where I can aim my pointer and say: “Look here. This is very important”. All other charts have to go.

Too Much Info

As a famous Renaissance sculptor Michelangelo Buonarotti used to say: “I don’t really sculpt – I just take away excess marble”. Like a sculpture inside the stone, information already exists inside the data. It just waits for the excess figures to be removed. Sometimes by saying less you are telling more:

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Level of Risk

Exp

ecte

d R

etu

rn

M

N

A

G

H

J

O

B

Q

I

D

C

K

E

L

F

R

P

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Level of Risk

Exp

ecte

d R

etu

rn

M

N

A

G

H

J

O

B

Q

I

D

C

K

E

L

F

R

P

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Not Enough Info

Insufficient information is as just as dangerous as superfluous information. Sometimes a slide needs just an axis title or a grid or a trend line to become perfect. Additional graphical elements (lines, shapes, colors, legend) may help the audience to better understand slides and charts. Obviously, the fewer words that are needed during the presentation to describe the charts message the better. You want to present your findings to the greatest extent possible, not explain the details of the graph.

Risk Return Tradeoff Chart

Excess

Pro Rata

Stop Loss

No Rein

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000

Risk - Standard Deviation of Net Income (after-tax)

Re

turn

- E

xp

ec

ted

SA

P N

et

Inc

om

e (

aft

er-

tax

)

Dull Graphics

Dull graphics with default gray background and five-six data points of different shapes is almost an insult to any audience – particularly at the executive level. The lack of time to produce an attractive presentation is no excuse. Given how much time has been spent obtaining the DRM results, it is only prudent to budget sufficient time to communicate the results effectively. Essentially, the amount of effort one spends on improvements to the presentation is directly proportional to the amount of attention the targeted audience will be willing to demonstrate and to the overall success of the DRM study project.

Other Sources of Inspiration

Websites

http://www.dfa.com/flash.html

http://www.casact.com/coneduc/dfa/2000/handouts/leibowitz.ppt

http://www.casact.com/coneduc/rcm/2003/RCMHandouts/bohra1.ppt

http://www.casact.com/coneduc/rcm/2003/RCMHandouts/isaac2.ppt

http://www.casact.com/coneduc/dfa/2001/handouts/stricker1.ppt

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Risk Return Tradeoff Chart

Excess

Pro Rata

Stop Loss

No Rein

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000

Risk - Standard Deviation of Net Income (after-tax)

Re

turn

- E

xp

ec

ted

SA

P N

et

Inc

om

e (

aft

er-

tax

)

http://www.casact.com/coneduc/dfa/2001/handouts/schwartz1.pdf

http://www.casact.com/coneduc/dfa/99dfa/handouts/newman.ppt

http://www.casact.com/coneduc/dfa/99dfa/handouts/conger.ppt

http://www.casact.com/coneduc/reinsure/2001/handouts/venter1.ppt

Charting software

Power Plugs for PowerPoint: Chart (http://www.crystalgraphics.com/presentations/charts.main.asp)

Tecplot (http://www.tecplot.com)

NetCharts (http://www.visualmining.com/examples/graphs.html)

Mathematica (http://www.wolfram.com/solutions/statistics/packages.html)

Magazines

Presentations Magazine (http://www.presentations.com).

Inside Microsoft PowerPoint Magazine (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B00006KIGU/102-8258859-5810540?v=glance).

Working Smarter with Microsoft PowerPoint Magazine (http://www.bluedolphin.com/product/product.vm?PRODID=99918).

Conclusion

There is an old proverb: “Do not feed me, rather teach me to hunt” highlighting that learning the “know-how” of production provides a more lasting solution than consuming prepared products.

Well, this project attempts to kill two rabbits with one bullet: it provides a “meal” along with the “hunting guide”. For people in a hurry the “DRM Presentation.ppt” contains ready-to-use slides with the most commonly used charts, while this document “DRM Presentation.doc” contains instructions for those who have both the time and the desire to build customized presentations.

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Acknowledgements

This paper has been written as a part of the “2003 CAS Working Party on Executive Level Decision Making using Dynamic Risk Modeling” research project. It was sponsored by and peer reviewed by the CAS Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee.

Working Party Members:

Mikhael R. Larsen Mike.larsen@thehartford.com, co-Chairperson

Nathan Babcock Nathan_Babcock@conning.com, co-Chairperson

Raju Bohra rbohra@amre.com,

Patrick J. Crowe crowe7371@insightbb.com,

Aleksey Popelyukhin aleksey@intelligencia.com,

Nathan Schwartz Nathan.Schwartz@us.benfieldgroup.com,

Scott Sobel Scott_Sobel@ncci.com,

Robert Walling rwalling@pinnacleactuaries.com.

Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee Members:Mark R. Shapland, Chairperson Larry JohnsonCraig Allen Michael LarsonNathan Babcock Glenn MeyersPeter Burchett Timothy PrattThomas Conway James E. RechPatrick J. Crowe Karl GoringRichard W. Gorvett Chester SzezepanskiPhil Heckman Run Yan

Mike Boa, CAS Staff Liaison

Stamford, 2003

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Appendix 1

To modify charts described throughout the article:

Launch Microsoft PowerPoint, preferably version 97 or better

Open the “DRM Presentation.ppt” file

Find a slide with a chart to modify and double-click on the chart area

All charts in this presentation are Microsoft Excel charts which can be edited “in place” (inside the PowerPoint slide)

The “Chart1” page contains the chart displayed in PowerPoint. Make all the changes to chart properties here

To replace data, click on the “Sheet 1” page and navigate to the area labeled “User Data”. It is a “live” spreadsheet so the majority of analytical Excel facilities are available here

It is important to switch back to the “Chart1” page before leaving the Excel editing area

Appendix 2

To modify custom animations of the objects on the slide:

Launch Microsoft PowerPoint, preferably version XP or better

Open the “DRM Presentation.ppt” file

Select a slide to modify

Right-click on any object on the slide (chart, picture, text) and select “Custom Animation” menu item…

The Custom Animation task pane should appear on the right side of the screen (if it doesn’t select View/Task Pane item from the PowerPoint menu)

The task pane displays a sequence of animated events as well as providing a means to modify it

Clicking on any event identifies the object it applies to. You can then change the effect, its order, its timing and (more importantly) the event’s trigger: there are options to trigger an event automatically or on the presenter’s mouse click

It is always a good idea to launch a slide to check the animation and event triggers

Appendix 3

To create a presentation chart that reacts to data changes in Excel:

Create a chart in Excel (for example, in the Public Access DRM Model file)

Right-click on it and select “Copy” from the object’s menu

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Launch Microsoft PowerPoint, preferably version XP or better

Open a presentation file, select the destination slide

Select “Edit/Paste Special/Paste Link”

From now on your PowerPoint chart will react to changes in the Excel spreadsheet

You may control link update behavior and even unlink the chart by choosing the “Edit/Links…” menu item in PowerPoint

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Selected Bibliography(in alphabetical order)

[1] Trevor Bounford. Digital Diagrams: How to Design and Present Statistical Information Effectively, Watson-Guptill Publications, 2000

[2] Ellen Finkelstein. How to Do Everything with PowerPoint 2002, McGraw-Hill, 2002

[3] Robert L. Harris. Information Graphics: A Comprehensive Illustrated Reference. Management Graphics, 1997

[4] Theo Mandel. The Elements of User Interface Design. Wiley Computer Publishing, 1997

[5] Aleksey S. Popelyukhin. Let Me See: Visualizing Actuarial Information. Spring 2001, CAS Forum

[6] Will Schroeder, Ken Martin, Bill Lorensen. Visualiazion Toolkit. Prentice Hall, 1998

[7] Edward R. Tufte. Visual Explanations. Graphics Press, 1997

[8] Colin Ware. Information Visualization: Perception for Design, Academic Press, 2000

[9] Peter Wildbur, Michael Burke. Information Graphics: Innovative Solutions in Contemporary Design, Thames and Hudson, 1998

[10] Gene Zelazny. Say it with Charts: The Executive's Guide to Visual Communication. McGraw-Hill, 1996

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