Drivers/Causes of LCLUC

• Proximate – human land use activities at local level (e.g. agriculture expansion)• Underlying – fundamental societal processes from local to the national to global scale.

o Include demographic, macro-economic, technological, policy, and cultural factors.

• Causes of LCLUC driven by simplifications > which in turn inform policy decisions– Authors propose alternative pathways to change supported by

case study evidence.– Based on case studies – neither poverty nor population alone is

the major underlying causes of LCLUC• Rather…

– Economic opportunities - Mediated by institutional factors (policy, etc.)

– Opportunities for new land uses created by local and national markets and policies

– Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change

Lambin et al. (2001) Global Environnemental ChangeThe Causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths

Lambin et al. (2001) Global Environnemental ChangeThe Causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths

• Tropical deforestation– Simplification: ?– Reality: ?

• Rangleland Modification• Agricultural Intensification• Urbanization• Take Home Message –

– Globalization is the main process amplifying / attenuating drivers of LCLUC. Rapid LCLUC change often concomitant with entrance of nation into world economies and leads to disconnections of sources of demand from location of production.

DeFries, Asner, FoleyA Glimpse Out the Window: Landscapes, Livelihoods, and the Environment

• Major Societal Trends? (Figure 3)• What affects Land Transitions?

– Ecological conditions– Demographics– Consumption patterns – Economic forces– Policy

DeFries et al. (2010):Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the 21st century

So what’s the take home message?• Forest loss may be even greater with urbanization• Since urban growth is projected to outpace rural growth this

has huge implications for forest loss• Other drivers may be biofuel and the competition for food

production• REDD policy needs to target the large players (industrial ag)

rather than the small landowners only• Total Population growth mildly significant – with a negative

coefficient – a response which counters the claim that deforestation increases with population

LCLUC Impacts

LULUC activities alter energy budgets when they change physical properties such as: albedo, soil moisture, roughness,

humidity, and evaporation rates.

Impacts of LCLUC

• Direct and Indirect impacts• Immediate and delayed impacts • Temporary and permanent impacts• Positive and negative impacts• Biophysical and societal impacts

Example Impacts

• Biogeochemical Cycles• Water Cycle • Land Productivity • Air Quality• Biodiversity• Societal Impacts • Climate Impacts

Source: Hansen et al., 2005

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dExplain the curvilinear response

Land Use Transitions

– Frontier Expansion (e.g. Brazil) – Extraction of Natural Resources (e.g. Wildlife, Timber, Mining) – Subsistence Farming > development of markets– Increasing emphasis on Management of natural resources –

agriculture, forestry, rangelands – extensification > intensification – Urban growth and megacities – population expansion– Suburban expansion– Agro-industrial complex – Globalization of markets – e.g. US and Amazon Beef and Soybeans,

Europe and African Beef, Japan and Indonesian Hardwoods – International Development (rather than exploitation) – Sustainability – Economic and Environmental Priorities (UNCED,

Agenda 21 and WSSD)

Modeling LCLUC

Data

• Why Model Land Use Change? • Models require understanding of the

processes and data • What is the mismatch issue with Social

and Physical data?• Human – Environment closely linked,

often resulting in feedbacks:

Conceptual model of a land system – from Global Land Project

LCLUC and Climate Change

LCLUC major BUT POORLY RECOGNIZED driver of long-term

global climate patterns

Mitigation Strategy Issues

• Permanence• Saturation• Verifiability

Pielke, Sr. (2005) ScienceLand Use and Climate Change

Should not be a surprise: NASA reports that nearly 1/3 to 1/2 of the plant’s land surface has been transformed by human action/development

ENSO analogy:• Persistent• Large magnitude (impact/intensity)• Large spatial scale• Global ImpactsThunderstorms example