Drivers of Change National Conservation Training CenterShepherdstown, WV10 August 2004

Anthony C. JanetosVice President

The Heinz Center

Drivers of Change

• Four main drivers to address:– Climate change– Water quantity and quality– Invasive species– Impacts of biotech/bioengineering

• I will add two more to think about:– Land-use change– Population pressure

So What?

• Why should we care?• Ethical concerns for conservation and

preservation of natural heritage• Practical concerns for delivery of

ecosystem services: fiber, food, water, soil fertility, atmospheric composition and climate, biological diversity

• Both priced and unpriced services

Drivers

• Overall goal: Conserving biodiversity by sustaining ecological functioning

• What are the main scientific issues for each driver?

• What are potential consequences for biodiversity/ecosystem functioning?

• Personal view for each

Climate Change

• Major challenge over next several decades

• Changes in atmosphere well-documented

• Changes in ecology beginning to be documented

• What can we adapt to?

Global CO2 Concentration

1800 2000 1600 1400 1200 260

280

300

320

340

360

800 1000

CO

2 con

cent

ratio

n (p

pm)

Ocean

Uptake:2.3 ± 0.8

Fossil Fuel Plus Cement Production:6.3 ± 0.6

Net Emissions from Tropical Land-Use Change:1.6 ± 0.8

Terrestrial UptakeInferred Sink: 2.3 ± 1.3

Storage in Atmosphere: 3.3 ± 0.2

Decade of the 1990’s

General Comparisons with IPCC

• Agriculture more vulnerable in developing world• As much as a third of forested ecosystems vulnerable to

some degree• Health risks also appear asymmetrical• Developing countries appear to be more vulnerable to the

same degree of atmospheric change• Even developed countries have significant vulnerabilities

Challenges

• Ecosystem response to multiple stresses, climate change in a broader context

• Degree to which CO2 fertilization operates

• Dependencies of impacts on particular CO2 concentrations• Costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies• Interaction of domestic and international effects• Linkages to other issues, especially losses of biological

diversity

Water Quantity and Quality• Concerns over water issues differ from region to

region• Some indication in precipitation data of increase

in extreme events• Anthropogenic water use not as well understood

as we might like• Monitoring for quality not as comprehensive as

we need• Conflicts between human use and use in/by

ecosystems

Invasive Species

• Already an important management issue within US

• Annual economic impacts measured in hundreds of $$ billions

• Now understand that invasives rank second only to habitat loss as driver of extinction trends

• Monitoring, prevention, control

Biotechnology/Bioengineering

• Most of the public focus has been on GMO foods

• But understand relatively little about potential for gene exchange from released organisms (plants or animals)

• Focus on what the traits are, not so much how they were produced

Land-Use Change

• Biggest changes over past 40-50 years• Acknowledged to be the biggest

contributor to losses of biological diversity

• What sort of changes can we document over the past few decades?

• What changes might be in store for US?

Main areas of deforestation and forest degradation over the last twenty years (1980-2000) - World

Main areas of degraded land over the last twenty years (1980-2000) - World

Main areas of change in cropland extent - World

Population Pressure

• In excess of 6 billion people globally• Projections of population today have

two characteristics:– Top out around 8-9 billion in next 50 years– Stay fairly steady

• Most growth in developing world, BUT• US has shown 2-3% growth per year

Population density in 1995 and most populated and changing cities in 1990-2000 - world

Energy in Today’s World

World Energy 1850-2000

050

100150200250300350400450500

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Year

EJ/

year

GasOilCoalNuclearHydro +Biomass

Fossil fuels drove most of the growth & were almost 80% of supply in 2000.

Some Closing Thoughts

• These drivers clearly have potential to influence ability to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem function

• Need to document and understand the drivers themselves

• Need to develop both adaptive and mitigative strategies based on best science

Closing Thoughts 2

• Development of indicators of change necessary

• Periodic reporting on state of diversity and ecosystem functioning/characteristics

• Periodic assessment of state of knowledge and understanding