Drive Broadcast Revenue With Election Day ForecastsBy: Michelle Boockoff-BajdekVice President, Marketing The Weather Company, an IBM Business

Table of Contents

A Look Back in History 3

Breaking Down the Impact of Weather by Voter Demographics 4

Understanding Voter Response to Weather Events 5

Advertising Revenue Opportunity 6

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The 2016 Presidential race has been full of excitement, televised debates, political stories and targeted advertising has filled the airwaves. Yet, underscoring all the hard work of campaign tactics is an often under-estimated player, the weather. Research shows that the weather impacts voter turnout in measurable ways and can even sway election results. Colder than average temperatures, ice, rain, and snow can swing close elections by keeping certain voting populations home more than others. Understanding exactly how the weather impacts voting practices by party, age, region and income level opens an exciting opportunity for broadcasters to drive political advertising revenue.

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A Look Back in History One of the most comprehensive academic research studies conducted on the impact of weather found that two of the fourteen elections studied were heavily influenced by weather in critical voting territories. The study,1 published in 2007, looked at voter turnout in fourteen presidential elections over 3,000 counties and found that not only did the weather impact voter turnout; it in fact changed the outcome of two elections. In 1960, results indicate that had the weather been rainy or snowy Richard Nixon would have received the additional Electoral College votes needed to become president sooner. Conversely, dry elections in 2000 would have led to a Florida win for Al Gore and a general election loss for George Bush.

Weather impact is not a trend of the past. Leading up to the Iowa caucus a blizzard threatened to arrive just 12 hours after the caucus was scheduled. If the storm advanced just hours sooner than predicted, voter turnout would most certainly have been impacted. In fact, a poll by The Weather Channel found that 17% of Republicans and 12% of Democrats said snow would keep them away from the Caucus.

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And it isn’t just snow that impacts voters. Only 70% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans said it was never too cold to attend the caucus – that’s a lot of voters who might let exceptionally cold weather stand in the way.

Although New Hampshire voters appear heartier than those in Iowa, they too would be affected had the weather taken a turn for the worse.

1. http://myweb.fsu.edu/bgomez/GomezHansfordKrause_JOP_2007.pdf

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Breaking Down the Impact of Weather by Voter Demographics In 2012 The Weather Channel evaluated weather related voter behavior by age, location, income level and party affiliation by surveying thousands of voters across the United States. The results are very important to campaign advertising strategy.

• Already-decided voters are more certain they’ll vote with only 19% sayingbad weather will impact whether they make it to the polls, vs. 35% of undecidedvoters.

• Icy conditions keep the most voters away, but maybe not the ones you think.The more experienced the voter, the more likely ice will NOT keep them away.Among registered voters age 55 and older, 65% say they will go out to vote inicy road conditions, 60% for those 34-54, but only 47% for those between 18-33.

• Cold temperatures can even keep voters home. In western states, 6% ofregistered voters say they wouldn’t make it to the polls in unseasonably coldtemperatures.

• If voters make less than $50,000 a year, they are more likely to “probablynot or definitely not” vote in inclement weather than those making more than$50,000 a year.

In addition to age, income level and party affiliation where voters are located matters a fair amount. The weather impacts people most in relation to what is considered normal for the region. What’s considered cold in Arizona is mild in New England. And those who are used to driving in snow are often less affected by it than regions where snow is infrequent.

The chart below shows the percent of voters who indicated they would “probably not or definitely not” get out to vote in a variety of bad weather conditions.

NORTHEAST MIDWEST SOUTH WEST 3% 4% 4% 6% Unseasonably cold4% 3% 6% 7% Below 30 Degrees4% 5% 5% 6% Heavy Rain11% 10% 15% 10% Ice Roads

7% 8% 9% 9% Thunderstorm, high winds, hail5% 5% 8% 9% Snowing

• In the south high winds, thunderstorms or hail would keep away a full 9% ofvoters compared to only 7% that would be impacted by the same conditions inthe Northeast.

• Icy road conditions impacts the most voters in the south, with snow affecting9% of voters in the west – 1.8 times as many as in the Northeast.

PROBABLY OR DEFINITELY NOT GET OUT TO VOTE UNDER THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS

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Understanding Voter Response To Weather Events Weather events impact voter behavior for two primary reasons - the logistics of traveling to voting locations in bad weather and the emotional impact of weather on voter mood.

As humans our mood is affected by the weather. It can skew us to feel positive or negative, make us inclined to expend a little or a lot of energy and it can even open us to change, or focus us on seeking stable comfort. In an effort to understand the specific impact of weather conditions The Weather Channel studied more than 12,000 people. The study found some interesting correlations. While sunshine led to positive feelings, precipitation drove negative ones. Snowy or stormy weather made people seek comfort and put safety and preparation as their first priority. While hot, humid, rainy conditions made people restless, irritated and looking for the easy solution. For voters who are on the fence about candidate selection the mood altering impact of weather can have a profound effect on which candidate they select, and whether or not they have the desire to show up at the voting location in the first place.

In addition to the emotional impact of weather, we can’t forget how much weather events impact our ability to travel. Democratic candidates take a larger hit than Republicans in inclement weather due to the makeup of their voter base as they grapple with questions such as:

• Will my commute be longer and shorten the window I have available tovote?

• Do I have a car to protect from the elements? Or will I have to wait forpublic transportation or walk in poor conditions?

• If I have a car, do I have experience driving on wet or icy roads?

• Are long lines expected? Do I have the gear to keep me dry and warm if Ihave to stand outside and wait my turn?

Undecided voters are most likely to skip voting when travel is impeded simply because they lack a passion for any particular candidate.

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Advertising Revenue Opportunity With political TV ad spending projected to top $4.4 billion to support federal races alone2 broadcasters are in a prime position to leverage election-day forecasts to sell weather related advertising to political campaigns. In fact, $6.5 million was put into just one market running 10,000 political commercials leading up to the Iowa caucus.3

With all this money on the table campaigns are looking for ways to capitalize on advertising spend. Research by Sides and UCLA political science professor Lynn Vavreck studied 2012 Presidential Campaign ads and found that while ads had an effect on voter attitude the impact was surprisingly short-lived, less than a week.4 Leveraging the weather forecast to optimize ad spend on or near election day is a prime opportunity to leverage meteorologist expertise by focusing local advertising on the most at risk voters right before and on election day.

Broadcasters can offer weather related advertising to help campaigns:

• Targeted messaging - Focus get out to vote campaigns on those voters whoare on the fence about attending by keeping in mind the age, income level andparty affiliation of those they are targeting. Remember, their most loyal votersare likely to show up no matter what the forecast.

• Go mobile - Focus outbound communications to encourage voters to head outto vote during the clearest hours on election day. This is the perfect opportunityto tie political advertising to mobile weather or traffic applications. Accordingto BIA/Kelsey mobile spending will grow from $28.72 billion in 2015 to $65.87billion in 2019. Building compelling case studies now will ensure future revenueis optimized. Election day coverage is the perfect opportunity to build thosestories.

• Find at risk voters - Use long-range weather forecasts to understand whatlocal areas are most likely to be impacted by weather events and advertise“voting carpool solutions” and other transportation options to avoid voterdisruption.

Election cycles are a prime opportunity to drive advertising revenue and build audience loyalty. By helping campaigns understand how to leverage weather information for better targeting, media companies become more than just another communication channel, they become a strategic partner.

2. http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/08/19/432759311/2016-campaign-tv-ad-spending

3. http://themonkeycage.org/2013/05/how-much-did-the-2012-air-war-and-ground-game-matter/

4. http://themonkeycage.org/2013/05/how-much-did-the-2012-air-war-and-ground-game-matter/

business.weather.combusinessmarketing@weather.com