dr.heinz-detlef gregor, wge bureau consultant, director and professor a.d., umweltbundesamt

CAPACT final meeting,

Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

Dr.Heinz-Detlef Gregor,WGE Bureau

Consultant, Director and Professor a.D., UmweltbundesamtGermany

The Potential for Further

Developing Effects

Monitoring

Monitoring and modelling air pollution effects on a European scale in the framework of the

Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution

Recomm

endations for

Increasing EECCA

Participation



In the beginning were the effects ...

Photo: B.O. Rosseland

Photo: H.D.Gregor



Export [ 10 5 kg nitrogen], i.e. Depositions in other European countries, caused by Germany, year 2000

ES 16

GB 58

IE 7

RO 112

BE 48

GR 18

IT 96

LU 7

AL 7

FR 210TR 39

BG 30

IS 5

NL 79

FI 142

DK 132

HU 76

SE 371

AT 268

NO 194

PT 2

PL 702

1199 BY 133UA 238

RU 653

EE 44LV 61

LT 70

396 CZ 329

SK 67

YU 43MD 11

SI 21

HR 42BA 30

FYM 4

104

CH 44 HR 36

MK 5

4.434 * 105

kgN



Import [105 kg nitrogen], i.e. depositions in Italy, caused by other European countries,year 2000

ES 182

PT 17

AT 30

FI 0

DE 96

PL 16

12BY 1

UA 6

RU 5

EE 0LV 0

LT 0

22CZ 18SK 4

HU 13

TR 6

GR 25

AL 7

MK 3

RO 13

BG 9

HR 23

CY 0

YU 13MD 0

SI 19BA 19

51

FR 232

LU 1

BE 12

NL 15

GB 21

IS 0

IE 2

NO 1

DK 3

SE 1CH 42

855 * 105 kg

N



51 Parties to the Convention

Artic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Finland

Armenia

Sweden

Georgia

Norway

Belarus

Czech Rep. Ukraine

Denmark

Moldova

Germany

Yugoslavia

Austria

Bulgaria

Liechtenstein

Turkey

Italy

Monaco

Cyprus

Switzerland

Malta

Netherlands

Greece

Belgium

F.Y.R.ofMacedonia

Luxembourg

Albania

France

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Spain

Croatia

Portugal

IrelandUnited Kingdom

Romania

Russian Federation

Iceland

Kara SeaBarents Sea

North Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Caspian Sea

Aral Sea

Canada

of America

Kyrgyzstan

Artic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Finland

Armenia

Sweden

Georgia

Norway

Belarus

Czech Rep. Ukraine

Denmark

Moldova

Germany

Serbia and Montenegro

Austria

Bulgaria

Liechtenstein

Turkey

Italy

Monaco

Cyprus

Switzerland

Malta

Netherlands

Greece

Belgium

F.Y.R.ofMacedonia

Luxembourg

Albania

France

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Spain

Croatia

Portugal

IrelandUnited Kingdom

Romania

Russian Federation

Iceland

Kara SeaBarents Sea

North Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Caspian Sea

Aral Sea

Canada

United Statesof America

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

34



The Protocols

- ambition levels increased stepwise -• 1985 and 1994 Sulphur Protocols

• 1988 NOx Protocol

• 1991 VOC Protocol

• 1998 Heavy Metals Protocol

• 1998 POP Protocol

• 1999 Gothenburg Protocol – multi-pollutant multi-effect

SN

VOCHM

POPMulti



Protocols to the Convention

The Convention has been extended by eight protocols which are all in force:

Protocol Establish-ment

Entering into force

Parties

Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone;

1999 17 May 2005 23

Protocol on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) 1998 23 Oct 2003 28

Protocol on Heavy Metals 1998 29 Dec 2003 28

Protocol on Further Reduction of Sulphur Emissions 1994 05 Aug 1998 27

Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds or their Transboundary Fluxes

1991 29 Sept 1997 22

Protocol concerning the Control of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes

1988 14 Feb 1991 31

Protocol on the Reduction of Sulphur Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by at least 30 per cent

1985 02 Sept 1987 23

Protocol on Long-term Financing of the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP)

1984 28 Jan 1988 42

(status J une 2007)

What are the main obstacles for so many

Parties to sign/ratify Protocols?



M&M Protocol obligations:

The Parties shall reduce their emissions (Art. 2),

support the provision of information (Art. 5),

gather information on effects on human health, ecosystems and materials and ensure its availability (Art. 6).

submit emission data on S, N, VOC (Art. 7),

support harmonisation of methods for monitoring and assessment of effects and trends (Art. 8).



Cause-effect approach

Cross-media flux approach

monitor state of the environment and changes with causative explanations

develop and validate models

detect changes by biomonitoring

investigate ecosystems, cross-media fluxes

cause-effect approach

stocks at risk/risk assessment

critical levels/loads and exceedances

EOA:



Monitoring theMonitoring theEnvironment withEnvironment withEffects in MindEffects in Mind



The International Cooperative Programmes (ICPs) and the Task

Force on Health: observation networks

Effects Community: 42 170 1900

ICP VEGETATION

IntegratedMonitoring



ICP Forests

ICP Waters

ICP Materials

ICP Vegetation

ICP Integr. Monitoring

ICP Modelling and Mapping

Taskforce Health

mt data mt dt m data mt data mtg data mtg data mtg

Armenia 2007

Belarus level I§

06

06

2005 (HM)

200520062007

2005 20052007

2005

20062007

Azerbaijan 2007

Georgia 2007 200520062007

Kazakhstan

2007

Kyrgyzstan

20062007

Republic of Moldova

level I§

07

1998 20062007

Russian Federation

0506

1996 (soil)

06

06

1987–2003

050607

2007¤(HM)

200520062007

2005 200520062007

200520062007

20052006

Tajikistan*

Turkmenist.*

Ukraine 05

level I§

07

2007 O3 HM

200520062007

200520062007

2005

Uzbekistan*

07

* not Party to the Convention ¤ Data for moss survey in 2005–2006 will be supplied in 2007. § Data for defoliation for some years.

Participation in EOA

What are the main obstacles for so many Parties to join EOA?



Level II plots



0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

1 98 9

1 99 0

1 99 1

1 99 2

1 99 3

1 99 4

1 99 5

1 99 6

1 99 7

1 99 8

1 99 9

2 00 0

2 00 1

y e a r

P i n u s s y l v e s t r i s P i c e a a b i e s F a g u s s y l v a t i c a

Q u e r c u s r o b u r + Q . p e t r a e a Q u e r c u s i l e x + Q . r o t u n d i f o l i a P i n u s p i n a s t e r

F i g u r e 1 : D e v e l o p m e n t o f m e a n d e f o l i a t i o n o f t h e 6 m o s t f r e q u e n t s p e c i e s .

M e a n d e f o l i a t i o n c o u l d b e c a l c u l a t e d o n l y f r o m 1 9 8 9 o n w a r d s , b e c a u s e i n 1 9 8 8 d e f o l i a t i o n w a s a s s e s s e d i n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l d e f o l i a t i o n c l a s s e s i n s t e a d o f 5 % s t e p s . N u m b e r o f t r e e s : P i n u s s y l v e s t r i s : 2 5 3 2 ; P i c e a a b i e s : 3 0 1 2 ; Q u e r c u s r o b u r a n d Q . p e t r a e a : 1 2 1 5 ; F a g u s s y l v a t i c a : 2 5 9 3 ; P i n u s p i n a s t e r : 1 3 7 4 ; Q u e r c u s i l e x a n d Q . r o t u n d i f o l i a : 2 2 5 4 .

me

an

de

foli

ati

on

[%

]

1989 2001



ICP Forests – Selected major achievements (2006)

Significant downward trends in S deposition, no trends in N depositions

BiodiversityThe BERN Model was applied at 3 plots. Changes in the C/N ratio and base saturation as result of atmospheric deposition would lead to vegetation changes.

Dynamic modellingAssuming Gothenburg implementation many plots will show recovery within the next decades, but the original soil pH will not be reached at all plots.

Correlations between pollution status and vegetation

clear relationship between soil pH and ground vegetation

N deposition was reflected in composition of ground vegetation



Heavy metals moss survey

Ca. 7000 (3200) sites in 32 (18) countries

Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, V, Zn, (N)

Interlaboratory calibration exercise

European heavy metal (N) in moss survey: 2005/6



Five regional centres to collate field-based evidence for effects of

ozone

ICP VEGETATION 25th WGE session



Biological recovery (as observed by ICP Waters in Norway) shows improvements over the last 10 – 14 years. The recovery is most pronounced the latest years

Vikedal (NO06), Baetis rhodani

0

50

100

150

200

250

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

year

Num

ber

Spring

Fall

Baetis Rhodani

EB.AIR/WG.1/2004/6



The catchment approach

process oriented - budget calculationshttp://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=17110&lan=en

deposition

wet dry

tree bioelements

tree responseepiphyte response

aerosols and gases

litter fallthroughfall

surface watergroundwater

understorey veg. responseweathering

decomposition, mineralisation

soil water

root uptake

run off

soil



in out

input – output relations



ICP Materials – Selected major achievements (2005)

Areas with increased risk of corrosion

1980

2000



WEG, 25th Session, Task Force on HealthWEG, 25th Session, Task Force on Health

Main recent activities

- Health risk of heavy metals from LRTAP

- Health risks of PM from LRTAP

- Health risks of O3 from LRTAP

- Assessment of health impacts of air pollution in EECCA



WGE, 25th Session, Task Force on HealthWGE, 25th Session, Task Force on Health

Estimated rural concentrations of ozone (average meteorological data for 1997, 1999, 2000 and 2003): SOMO35, ppb.days

2000 2020

CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

Simple Mass Balance


Pollutants:- SOx, NOy, NHx

- Heavy metals

Receptors:- Forest - Natural and semi-natural vegetation- Aquatic ecosystems

Prioritization:


1990

2010

Excess deposition of acidity over Critical Loads in 1990 and 2010 if the Gothenburg protocol is fully implemented.

The observed decrease in exceedances is due to a substantial sulphur reduction. However, the emission of nitrogen oxides and ammonia will continue to contribute to acidification and eutrophication.



Recommendationsto ensure active and stepwise increasing participation in EOA

Analyse current national situation:Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community;Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases;Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperationDescribe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support.



Recommendationsto ensure active and stepwise increasing participation

Analyse current national situation:

Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community;Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases;Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperationDescribe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support.

Affiliate to activities:Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.);Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF);Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes;Define basic workplans for national focal points.






Affiliate to activities: Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.); Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF);Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes;Define basic workplans for national focal points.

Participate in prioritized programme activities (ICPs/TF) with existing national data and expertise:Compile and submit existing data to resp. Programme CentresParticipate actively in the evaluation of those data;Ensure experts to attend annual programme meetings, always with oral presentation / written summary in English.








Design sites and start to monitor effects:Identify priority parameters and responsible experts for monitoring (for chosen most important receptors);Check minimum data requirements; Assess existing capacity for actually conducting the monitoring;Start with few sites that cover requirements of several programmes (ICPs/TF);Ensure resources to analyse data and report results.








Design sites and start to monitor effects:Identify priority parameters and responsible experts for monitoring (for chosen most important receptors);Check minimum data requirements; Assess existing capacity for actually conducting the monitoring;Start with few sites that cover requirements of several programmes (ICPs/TF);Ensure resources to analyse data and report results.

Integrate research activities:Coordinate monitoring, evaluation of data, modelling and overall assessment;Ensure cooperation, coordination and harmonisation at national and subregional levels;Conduct/participate in subregional (thematic) workshops, expert training sessions and cooperation with neighbouring countries.

^^



Do you see more clearly now ??Do you see more clearly now ??

Thank you for your kind attention!Thank you for your kind attention!

See you in Geneva, August 2007, See you in Geneva, August 2007, and and

at 2008 programme at 2008 programme meetings!meetings!



......and report to WGE on your experiences,

results, technical or scientific problems,

......and expectations.



Information on recent reports & publications, the 2007 TF Meetings and

more details on achievements and ongoing activities of ICPs and TF

Health may be drawn from the

Joint Report: Doc. EB.AIR/WG.1/2007/3,

the Technical Reports: Doc. EB.AIR/WG.1/2007/5 ..... /14

and the CLRTAP´s, WGE´s and ICPs´/TFs´ web sites:

Need more information?

27 years of work under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has resulted in a wealth of published material and internet presentations that made it an easy task to collate this brochure. The effort of numerous individual authors, groups and organisations that directly or indirectly found its way into this presentation is gratefully acknowledged.

Try here: [email protected]

or:Programme Centre ICP Forest http://www.icp-forests.org/

Programme Centre ICP Waters http://www.niva.no/ICP-waters/ICP_index.htm

Programme Centre ICP Materials http://www.corr-institute.se/ICP-Materials/

Programme Centre ICP Vegetation http://icpvegetation.ceh.ac.uk/

Programme Centre ICP Integrated Monitoring http://www.environment.fi/ default.asp?contentid=17110&lan=en

Programme Centre ICP Modelling and Mapping http://www.icpmapping/org

Joint Task Force on Health Aspects, WHO European Ctre for Env. and Health, Bonn Office http://www.euro.who.int/air

dr.heinz-detlef gregor, wge bureau consultant, director and professor a.d., umweltbundesamt

Documents

protocol obligations

plotsmean defoliation

effects monitoringmonitoring

assessment of effects

convention data

transboundary fluxes199129

transboundary fluxes198814

control of emissions