dreams, lies, and the autonomous web · dreams, lies, and the autonomous web mike amundsen ca...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dreams, Lies, and the
Autonomous Web
Mike Amundsen
CA Technologies
@mamund
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Introduction
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We are at a crossroads…
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• API Demand is Increasing
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• Growth in Public APIs
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• API Demand is Increasing
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Program the Network
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“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
George Santayana, 1905
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“Those who ignore the mistakes of the future are bound to make them.”
Joseph D. Miller, 2006
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"One does not discover new lands without
consenting to lose sight of the shore for a
very long time“
- André Gide (1869-1951)
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Dreams
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Google’s DeepDream creates
strange images
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Google’s DeepDream creates
strange images
imaginations
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Google’s DeepDream creates
strange images
archtypes
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Google’s DeepDream creates
strange images
to learn about the brain
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Dreams are the way our brains
hallucinate
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Dreams are the way our brains
practice
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Dreams are the way our brains
learn
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What about Big Data?
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1 Yottabyte of Storage
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100 Terabytes
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100 Terabytes
100,000 Gigabytes
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100 Terabytes
100,000 Gigabytes
250+ years of storage per person
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Does the brain retain all
100 Terabytes
of data, experience, memory?
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NO
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Pruning data into long-term memory
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“Forgetting makes our brains more efficient.”
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Forgetting is important…
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Forgetting is important…
So is CHOOSING
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Learning to choose is hard.
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Learning to choose is hard.
Learning to choose well is harder.
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“Learning to choose well in a world of unlimited possibilities is, perhaps, too hard.”
Barry Schwartz, 2004
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“If you torture big data long enough, it will tell you
what you want to know.”
- Edward Tufte
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To build the Autonomous Web we’ll
need to teach machines to
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To build the Autonomous Web we’ll
need to teach machines to
hallucinate
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To build the Autonomous Web we’ll
need to teach machines to
hallucinate
and
forget
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Lies
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“A key is simple.
A car is complicated.
Driving a car in traffic
is complex.”
- Michael Lewis
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Complexity is not statistical.
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“Watson Analytics offers you the
benefits of advanced analytics
without the complexity.”
-- IBM’s Watson Analytics Website
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“Watson Analytics offers you the
benefits of advanced analytics
without the complexity.”
-- IBM’s Watson Analytics Website
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"As we gain more
data, how much better
does our system get?
It’s still improving —
but we are getting to
the point where we get
less benefit than we
did in the past.”
- Peter Norvig
Dir of Research
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Learning is complex
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Statistics are not learning
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Autonomous
Web
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Background
Information Theory, Complex Systems,
and Hypermedia
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Maxwell’s Demon
• James Clerk Maxwell (1831 - 1879)
• “... if we conceive of a being whose faculties
are so sharpened that he can follow every
molecule in its course…”
• Second Law of
Thermodynamics
“has only a
statistical certainty”
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Boltzmann
• Ludwig Boltzmann (1844 - 1906)
• “Boltzman entropy”
• Macro- & micro-states
• Each possibility is a microstate
• The probability of a
macrostate is the
function of all the
microstates.
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Shannon & Information
• Claude Shannon (1916 – 2001)
• “The number of bits needed to represent the
result of an uncertain event is given by its
entropy.”
• Surprisal: the "surprise" of seeing the
outcome - a highly improbable
outcome is very surprising.
(Tribus, 1961)
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Turing, Tapes, & Halting
• Alan Turing (1912 – 1954)
• A Turing machine is a hypothetical device
that manipulates symbols on a strip of tape
according to a table of rules.
• “Turing's paper ... contains, in essence, the
invention of the modern
computer.” (Minsky, 1967)
• “… decide whether the
program finishes running or
continues to run forever”
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Gödel and Incompleteness
• Kurt Gödel (1906 – 1978)
• “This statement is unprovable.”
• Treats the string as both data and program
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Von Neumann computing
• John von Neumann (1903 – 1957)
• Described a computer architecture in which
the data and the program are both stored in
the computer's memory in the same address
space.”
• Theory of Self
Reproducing
Automata (1966)
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Genes
• DNA/RNA store both the data and program.
• mRNA uses “alternative splicing” where it
greatly increases biodiversity.
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Fielding architecture
• Roy Fielding (1965 - )
• “Architectural Styles and the Design of
Network-based Software Architectures”
(2001)
• “each component cannot "see" beyond the
immediate layer with
which they are
interacting.”
• “…the information
becomes the
affordance…”
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Complex Systems
• “Large networks of components with no
central control and simple rules of operation
give rise to collective behavior, sophisticated
information processing, and adaptation via
learning or evolution.” (Mitchell, 2001)
• “Exhibits non-trivial emergent and
self-organizing behavior.”
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The Web
• “The Web … [has] many large scale
properties … which lead to “adaptive”
behavior for the system as a whole.”
(Mitchell 2001)
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So much for the background!
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Current State
Media Types, HTTP, and Kelvin-ism
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Media Types
• More registered hypermedia-style designs in
the last two years than in the last ten.o Maze+XML (experimental)
o HAL (XML, JSON)
o Collection+JSON
o Siren (JSON)
o Hydra (JSON-LD)
o JSON-API
UBER (pending)
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Media Types and entropy
• Designs vary in their level of “surprise”
• “surprisal” == “entropy”
• Lower the entropy, the less value the
information
• Higher the entropy, the more energy needed
to process the information.
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Media Types and entropy
• text/uri-list
• Low entropy/surprisal
• Low energy needs
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Media Types and entropy
• text/plain
• High entropy/surprisal
• High energy needs
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Media Types and entropy
• text/html
• Moderate entropy/surprisal
• Moderate energy needs
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Media Types and entropy
• From the “machine point of view”…
• What is the balance between entropy and
energy?
• Energy = computing power (coding time,
source code, memory, etc.)
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Media Types and entropy
• Most applications on the Web are “one-off”
affairs - custom-coded for each solution.
• This is “high-energy computing!”
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HTTP
• Hypertext Transfer Protocol
Ver 0.9 (1991) – Ver 1.1 (1999) <10 years
• HTTPbis (2013?) ~15 years since 1.1
• HTTP 2.0 (20??) >20 years since 1.1?
• No protocol-level
changes, but several
transport-level changes.
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HTTP
• The Web is currently highly dependent on
a single protocol.
• Most new “protocols” build upon HTTPo SPARQL 1.1 Graph Store HTTP Protocol.
• Most new media types assume HTTPo JSON-LD
o HAL
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The Irony of HTML and HTTP is…
“When all you have is a hammer, everything looks
like a nail.”
-- Abraham Maslow
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Questions for you…
• How long will HTTP last?
• When will HTML no longer be dominant?
• How will this affect your own thinking?
• How will this affect the Web?
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Kelvin-ism
• Lord Kelvin computed the age of the earth
based on “heat decay” and concluded:
“…it was more than 20 and less than 40
million year old, and probably much nearer
20 than 40”. (Kelvin, 1897)
• To his dying day, Kelvin refused to
accept the validity of other points
of view.
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Near Term
Lowering entropy, decoupling protocols,
focusing on networks
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Near Term – Lowering entropy
• We need more media type designs
• We need to design for low-entropy and high
information
• We need to design for machines, not humans
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Near Term – Lowering entropy
• Three semantic levels in network messageso Structure (XML, JSON, YAML, etc.)
o Protocol (H-Factors)
o Semantics (Domain concepts)
• We commonly see:o Structure = low surprise
o Protocol = high surprise
o Semantics = high surprise
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The higher the surprise in the message, the
higher the dependence on custom code on the
client/server.
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Near Term – Lowering entropy
• Hypermedia Factors can lower Protocol
Surprise
• Many designs are still unexplored.
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Near Term – Lowering entropy
• Profiles can lower Semantic Surprise
• http://alps.io
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Near Term – Lowering entropy
• We need more machine-oriented media
types.
• Text can add entropy for machines.
• rel=“users”
vs. <a … >Users</a>
• Imagine a hypermedia type
that humans could not
understand, but machines could.
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The higher the dependence on machine-
readable messages, the lower the entropy.
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Near Term – Decoupling protocols
• Most media type designs today assume a
dependence on a single protocol – HTTP.
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Near Term – Decoupling protocols
• Message designs should be protocol-
agnostic.
• Use “Protocol Mapping”
to associate media-type
keywords with a selected
protocol (HTTP, FTP,
WS, CoAP, etc.)
• http://g.mamund.com/class-sked
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Near Term – Focusing on networks
• Most implementations are stand-alone, one-
off models.
• We treat the Web as a sea filled with islands,
each one only barely aware of the others.
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“The WWW is fundamentally
a distributed hypermedia application.”
Richard Taylor (2010)
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Near Term – Focusing on networks
• The Web, biology, & social communities
exhibit properties of a “scale-free” network
• Barabási-Albert model for “preferential
attachment” (1999)
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Near Term
• Lower entropy in messages
• Reduce protocol dependence
• Treat the network as the application
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And there are some hard things, too.
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Futures
No more central control, adaptation through
variation, competing for resources
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Futures – No more central control
• If the WWW is the application, where is the
CPU? The storage? The program?
• Cellular Automata (Ulam & Von Neumann,
1940s)
• Conway’s Game of Life (1970s)
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Futures – No more central control
• Cellular automata are discrete, abstract
computational systems
• In cellular automata information appears as
statistical probabilities.
• See Wolfram’s Atlashttp://atlas.wolfram.com/01/01/
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Futures – No more central control
• Basic principles for automatao Information takes the form of statistics and patterns
across the system
o Information is communicated via sampling
o There exists some level of random behavior
o Rely on fine-grained architecture, large numbers of
simple elements.
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Futures – No more central control
• In “Future Web” we will create discrete,
abstract programs and they will interact
across the network.
• “What gets done on
the ‘net stays on
the ‘net.”
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Futures – Adaptation via variation
• Machines will need to adapt to conditions,
learn and pass on traits.
• Learning happens via many passes and
survival of the ‘most fit’ for the task.
• “Robby” and the soda canso Start w/ 1xxx random attempts
o Score highest 2, splice
o Add random mutation
o Repeat
• http://g.mamund.com/robby
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How can we model adaptation on the Web?
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Futures – Competing for resources
• With Robby – there is a “score-keeper” for
the entire system.
• On the Web there is no score-keeper.
• In living systems, ‘scoring’ is done through
competing for limited resources.
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Futures – Competing for resources
• In “Future Web” programs may compete for
scarce resources such as memory, storage,
cycles.
• RBNs (Random Boolean Networks) offer
a way to “keep score”
without central control.
(Kauffman, 1969).
• Uses attractorso Fixed
o Oscillating
o Random
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How can we model competition on the Web?
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Summary
Time to head back toward shore…
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Summary
• Information theory, complex biological
systems, hypermedia and the Web all share
some similar properties
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Summary
• However, our current efforts ignore these
features and contain a high degree of
entropy, coupling, and lack interdependence.
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Summary
• We can start today by creating low-entropy
machine-oriented messages, decouple from
network protocols, and treat the network as a
single application space.
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Summary
• In the future we’ll need to give up central
control, we’ll build discrete automata, and
we’ll create a network where variation and
competition are possible.
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However, in order to accomplish all that…
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How long before we realize this
Autonomous Web?
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Hofstader’s Law
“Things take longer than you think, even if
you take Hofstader’sLaw into account.”
- Douglas Hofstader
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Just remember…
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“Those who ignore the mistakes of the future are bound to make them.”
Joseph D. Miller, 2006
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We must be willing to lose sight of the shore.
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Dreams, Lies, and the
Autonomous Web
Mike Amundsen
CA Technologies
@mamund
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