draft strategy 6-10-09 rmp modeling strategy john oram jay davis
TRANSCRIPT
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
RMP Modeling StrategyRMP Modeling Strategy
John Oram
Jay Davis
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
IntentIntent
• To develop a capacity to predict the effect of different management alternatives on – loads from watersheds,
– the recovery of contaminated areas on the Bay margin,
– the recovery of the Bay as a whole
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
ApproachApproach
• To develop conceptual and numeric models of the physical, chemical, and biological processes governing the fate of water, sediment, and pollutants of concern in San Francisco Bay and its associated watersheds
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Question 1 : Bay MarginsQuestion 1 : Bay Margins
• What is the contribution of contaminated Bay margins to impairment in the Bay and what are the projected impacts of management actions to the Bay's recovery?
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Question 2 : Bay RecoveryQuestion 2 : Bay Recovery
• What patterns of exposure are forecast for major segments of the Bay under various management scenarios?
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Question 3 : Small Tributary LoadsQuestion 3 : Small Tributary Loads
• What are the projected impacts of management actions on loads or concentrations of pollutants of concern from the high-leverage small tributaries?
• Where should management actions be implemented in the region to have the greatest impact?
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Some CommentsSome Comments• Need very specific details about the uses anticipated
by Water Board staff (and other stakeholders) – ongoing, iterative, transparent process for
developing these questions, tracking various decision points
• Need milestones or decision points to make sure model outputs will be available at the right time for consideration by water board staff/managers.– Currently have ~5 year goal informing PCBs TMDL
v2.0
• Need a clear narrative describing what we already know, how the proposed work could expand that, what it will take to get there– To be addressed as part of Margins Conceptual Model
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Strategy : CoordinationStrategy : Coordination
• Establish (or Participate in) a Bay Area Modeling Forum that will– guide agencies and NGOs in the selection, use, and
interpretation of models
– improve communication and coordination of local modelers and stakeholders
– reduce duplication of efforts
– improve the overall quality of modeling products
• Will Participate in CeNCOOS Forum Aug 6-7, 2009
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
• Develop a flexible grid model capable of implicitly allowing for the interaction of fine-scale processes occurring at the Bay Margins with the larger-scale processes of the Bay proper
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
• What is a flexible grid anyway?– An approach to allow increased resolution in areas of concern
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
# cells 44,148
cell size Curvilinear 50 m to 1.3 km
dt (min) 1.0 - 0.1
Curvilinear Grid
Delft3d grid from P. Barnard (USGS)
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model
SUNTANS grid of Puget Sound
Unstructured Grid
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Strategy : Local WatershedsStrategy : Local Watersheds
• Develop models of key watersheds over the next three years with the goal of developing a regional model (or set of models)
• Watersheds will be identified by SPLWG and Small Tributaries Strategy Team– These groups will provide project oversight as well.
• Implement field studies to fill information gaps– 2010 funding proposed to identify information gaps
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Strategy : Local WatershedsStrategy : Local Watersheds
Example: Guadalupe Watershed Model
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Draft Strategy 6-10-09
Task Questions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bay & Margins Modeling
Margins Conceptual Model 1 $40,000*
Sediment Transport Conceptual Model 1,2,3 $25,000
South Bay Water and Sediment Model 1,2 $100,000
Fieldwork to support South Bay Hotspot / Tributary Modeling
1,2 $50,000
Conceptual biota model 1,2 $40,000
Hotspots and Tributary modeling in South Bay (Water, Sediment, Contaminant, Biota)
1 $100,000
Extend Model to Larger Bay (Water and Sediment) 1,2 $100,000
Add Contaminants and Biota to Larger Bay Model 1,2 $140,000
Watershed Modeling
Guadalupe Watershed Model 3 $75,000* $75,000*
Gathering Data Needed for Watershed Modeling a) Scoping of Needs Regarding “Land Use” sites b) Monitoring
$30,000 $100,000? $100,000? $100,000?
Dynamic Watershed Modeling in a Selected Representative Wat ershed
$150,000
Additional Watershed Model 3 $75,000
Large Scale Watershed Model (2014) 3
Coordination
Participation in or development of a Bay Area Modeling Forum
1,2,3 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000
* = currently funded by RMP