DRAFT CRM_InnoNet SUBSTITUTION ROADMAP:

ELECTRIC MOTORS AND DRIVES

16 January 2015

This project has received funding from the European

Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant

agreement no 319024.

Authors

LORENZ ERDMANN, FRAUNHOFER ISI

KRISTINA BETTE, FRAUNHOFER ISI

DANIELA VELTE, TECNALIA

JOSE MARI MERINO, TECNALIA

WP5 Partners

COMMISSARIAT A L’ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES

EUROPEAN MATERIALS RESEARCH SOCIETY

FRAUNHOFER-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FÖRDERUNG DER ANGEWANDTEN FORSCHUNG E.V.

STIFTELSEN SINTEF

SWEREA MEFOS AB

SEMI EUROPE-GRENOBLE OFFICE

SP SVERIGES TEKNISKA FORSKNINGSINSTITUT AB

FUNDACIÓN TECNALIA RESEARCH & INNOVATION

TNO NETHERLANDS ORGANISATION FOR APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH

DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER NETWORK

Contact

ELECTRIC MOTORS AND DRIVES LEAD LORENZ ERDMANN (FRAUNHOFER ISI) EMAIL: Lorenz.Erdmann@isi.fraunhofer.de TEL: +49 721 6809313 WP5 – WP LEADER DANIELA VELTE (TECNALIA) EMAIL: DANIELA.VELTE@TECNALIA.COM TEL: +34 607247591 GENERAL QUERIES: CRITICALRAWMATERIALS@KTN-UK.ORG

Introduction It is the purpose of the CRM_InnoNet roadmaps to shed light on possible pathways to material substitution in products and technologies essential for providing energy, transport and communication services. This document has been compiled for the purpose of the public consultation on the CRM Substitution Roadmaps prepared by CRM_InnoNet and presents some background information on how the CRM substitution roadmaps were elaborated as well as a short summary of the conclusions drawn from the roadmap elaboration in the priority area of Permanent magnet based applications such as Electric Motors and Drives, generally referred to as Electric Motors and Drives. This document should be read together with the draft roadmap table for Electric Motors and Drives. Further information should be requested via criticalrawmaterials@ktn-uk.org.

CRM_InnoNet Roadmap Elaboration Five roadmaps have been elaborated in the context of the CRM_InnoNet project1 with focus on applications to be considered of strategic importance for the European industry and which may be exposed to potential Critical Raw Material (CRM) supply risks. CRM_InnoNet is concerned with the 14 raw materials identified as critical for the EU in 20102 and project work to date includes:

Mapping of the main uses and current substitution possibilities of the 14 CRMs3 (WP3) Detailed supply chain analysis of CRM-containing applications in the energy, ICT and electronics,

and transport sector4 (WP4) Methodology development and prioritisation of applications likely to be under threat from

bottlenecks in CRM supply (WP2)

Results obtained from WPs 3, 4 and 2 formed the basis for the elaboration of the CRM Substitution Roadmaps (WP5), which explain possible substitution strategies for CRMs in:

Printed Circuit Boards and electronic components Permanent-magnet based applications such as Electric Motors and Drives Batteries and Accumulators High-value Alloys Photonics (also referred to as “high-end optics” in other CRM deliverables)

The CRM_InnoNet roadmaps consider four substitution strategies, which make it possible to reduce Europe’s demand for scarce materials or to use these materials more efficiently during a product’s lifetime5:

“Substance for substance” can be considered “pure” material substitution, for example nanodots replacing rare earths-based phosphors in lasers

“Process for process” means a major change to the way a product is fabricated, which is one of the most attractive options in metal processing (example: advanced metallurgical synthesis processes to replace CRM containing alloys)

“Service for product” refers to business models which help to extend the useful life of a product and the intensity of use, for example through leasing or sharing arrangements, and which can also help to increase recycling rates

“New technologies for substance” refers to innovative products, for example OLED, which could gradually substitute others, which require a higher CRM content (LED).

The Electric Motors and Drives Roadmap focuses on two of these possible strategies, i.e. “Substance for Substance” and “New technologies for substance”. The roadmapping methodology used by CRM_InnoNet is based on the theoretical framework of “Transition Theory”6. Transition theory distinguishes between the “socio-technical regime”, which aligns the activities of major social groups to a predominant mainstream, the “niches” at the micro-level where radical novelties emerge, and the “landscape”, referring to the exogenous developments beyond direct impact of regime and niche actors. Figure 1 shows illustrative examples for the three levels of transition theory from the perspective of the socio-technical raw material regime.

Figure 1: The three levels of transition theory illustrated for the socio-

technical raw material regime

Based on this analytical framework, specific expertise was drawn into the process to discuss the future visions of technologies and innovation strategies aiming to substitute critical raw materials. For this purpose, CRM_InnoNet engaged a wide range of experts and collected feedback on expected future developments for each of the priority applications via an online survey, a set of “Vision Workshops” and further expert interviews. The contributions received formed the basis for the elaboration of the actual roadmaps by the CRM_InnoNet team. The work process is shown in Figure 2.

Landscape  developments:  climate  change,  mul.polar  world,  global  economic  compe..on,  etc.  

Raw  material  regime:  material-­‐intense  lifestyles,  policy  priority  on  primary  raw  materials,  market  oligopoly  of  large  mining  companies,  etc.  

Niches:  post  consump.on  lifestyle  experiments,  local  closed-­‐loop  economies,  R&D  on  CRM-­‐free  materials,  etc.  

Figure 2: Process for CRM_InnoNet Roadmap Elaboration

The horizon for the roadmap exercise was established at the outset of the project at 2030, since in this period presently emerging technologies can be taken to commercial maturity. Obviously, historical material development timelines in the different markets need to be taken into account. Yet, opportunities for accelerating material innovation are arising, thanks to new design and modelling techniques. Accelerating innovation in the materials field and shortening the time to market for new materials is a key element for substitution, according to industry sources and experts from academy participating in the CRM_InnoNet roadmapping exercise.

By establishing the cause-effect relation and a logical sequence of actions, a strategic vision arises from the roadmapping process, which can guide policy-making in the field of material substitution. The roadmaps also permit to identify priorities for policy and research actions, which forms the focus for the final work package of CRM_InnoNet and will conclude the project (WP8 Vision and Policy Recommendations).

Interpretation of the Roadmap Table

This document should be read together with the draft roadmap table provided for download. Based on cross-sectoral challenges identified in the expert discussion, this table has been drawn up to provide answers that will help to develop a European strategy for CRM substitution, focussing on:

1. The expected development of drivers for technologies, which could increase the overall demand for CRMs by 2030 unless action is taken.

2. Developments driven by industry, which act in favour of market-uptake of new CRM-free solutions or solutions requiring a lower CRM-content from here to 2030.

3. Trends in regulation that could influence the expected demand for CRM-containing technologies and / or CRM-free alternatives in the coming years.

4. Research initiatives, which may provide new solutions over the next 15 years, although they are not yet clearly backed by industry.

The roadmap table identifies potential substitution technologies that may exist at different time-horizons. These are not intended to be “objectives” to be reached, but aim at identifying potential substitute technologies that may exist at different timeframes, based on market dynamics and research trends, and may provide an alternative to a potential CRM issue.

The time-scale of the different technologies attempts to capture the maturity of their respective development. Given the multiplicity of potential alternative technologies, no assumption is made whether a given technology has more chance for a “break-through” than another one. Difference may however arise with respect to specifc markets, in link with the present perception of the strength/weaknesses of each technology.

Obviously, the vision of market technologies at the horizon 2030 is highly uncertain, and should be considered as such.

Short Summary of the Substitution Roadmap: Electric

Motors and Drives Even though the bottlenecks along the supply chain of permanent magnets seem to become less severe over the next years, companies watch developments closely, as they are aware of the potential strong drivers for increased demand related to wind turbine deployment and electric / hybrid mobility, which could again provoke strong price oscillations and undermine the cost competitiveness of permanent magnet motors. The technological developments in the field of electric motors are strongly guided by the need for achieving more demanding efficiency standards.

The roadmap considers the following types of electric motors and drives:

Figure 3: Electric Motors and Drives considered in the CRM_InnoNet

substitution roadmap

The roadmap indicates that the main developments determining the need for alternative, REE-free solutions will occur during the time frame covered by the roadmap, i.e. before 2030. At the end of this period, wind producers are supposed to deploy a new generation of large offshore wind turbines (10 MW and beyond), for which REE-free superconducting materials are available. However, during the transition period, 6-8MW direct drive turbines are likely to prevail, which use large quantities of permanent magnets (up to 600kg/MW). Strategies for minimizing PM content and eliminating dysprosium (Dy) are already in place and may help to alleviate the dependence on rare earths. These minimization strategies will be very relevant if the deployment of large off-shore turbines takes longer than expected, due to technical problems, unfavourable trends in the energy market or other societal reasons such as lack of public acceptance.

A key factor on the demand side is electric and hybrid mobility, which has the potential to become the dominant technology for vehicles from 2025 on as a result of much stricter emission standards. The automotive industry is researching a great variety of solutions, which do not require rare earths or work with lower quantities of Neodymium (Nd) and Dy. Alternative technologies are also being developed by smaller innovative companies, specialized in the field of electric and hybrid mobility, which include new drive concepts, such as in-wheel motors. New designs of motor topologies that reduce temperature stress on permanent magnets are currently explored in order to reduce Dysprosium content.

The producers of industrial multi-purpose motors are carefully monitoring the development in the field of electric and hybrid mobility, as the price hikes for permanent magnets in 2008/2009 raised awareness on potential supply problems. Market leaders such as ABB and Hitachi reacted quickly and now offer a magnet-free synchronous reluctance motor and a rare-earth free permanent magnet synchronous motor, respectively, with high efficiency levels for a wide range of applications. Also smaller motor producers and users are attracted by the idea of a PM-free alternative to reduce dependence on permanent magnets, but face greater difficulties in implementing these solutions. Experts argue, however, that presently available motor designs are close to the maximum efficiency level achievable, so that completely new motor designs need to be implemented by 2030.

HREE- and REE-free permanent magnet candidate materials are currently identified by High Throughput Screening methods. A new generation of nanocomposites and nanostructures could substitute for HREE or REE in permanent magnet materials in the long-term, if substitution pressure remains high. Meanwhile production processes are optimized in the short-term to reduce HRRE and REE content of permanent magnet materials.

Finally, it has been observed that technological developments are mainly driven by industry, but research organisations play a leading role in crosscutting solutions, such as the search for new magnet materials and in entirely new design concepts for general purpose motors.

REFERENCES 1 http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu

2 Ad-hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials (2010) Critical raw materials for the EU: European Commission

3 The report detailing the 14 critical raw material profiles is available via the project website at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/raw-material-profiles/

4 The report “Critical Raw Material Supply Chain Analysis for the Energy Sector” is available at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/report-critical-raw-material-supply-chain-analysis-for-the-energy-sector/, the report “Critical Raw Material Supply Chain Analysis for the ICT Sector” is available at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/report-critical-raw-material-supply-chain-analysis-for-the-ict-sector/, the report “Critical Raw Material Supply Chain Analysis for the Transport Sector” is available at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/report-critical-raw-material-supply-chain-analysis-for-the-transport-sector/. A summary report can be found at http://www.criticalrawmaterials.eu/documents/key-project-reports/critical-raw-materials-analysis-of-the-energy-ict-and-electronics-and-transport-sectors/

5 CRM_InnoNet recognises and promotes the complementarity of other approaches to reducing Europe’s demand for scarce materials and/or Europe’s dependence on imports of scarce materials, such as recycling, reuse, recovery etc.

6 Geels, F. W., Research Policy, 31, 1257-1274 (2002); Geels, F. W., Research Policy, 33, 897-920 (2004); Geels, F. W., Schot, J., Research Policy, 36, 399-417 (2007)