dr. thomas p seager, dr. susan spierre clark, daniel a eisenberg arizona state university, tempe az...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dr. Thomas P Seager, Dr. Susan Spierre Clark, Daniel A EisenbergArizona State University, Tempe AZ
23 July 2015I-10 bridge collapse costing trucking industry $2.5 million/day.
A Socio-technical Approach to Resilience in Critical Infrastructure Systems
(photo Matt York / Associated Press)
@seagertp#resweek2015
18 Aug 2015 Philadelphia PA
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Photo: Indiana Department of Transportation
Northbound I-65 from Lebanon to Lafayette IN closed since 7 Aug, when the center bridge pier sunk 9 inches.
Dr. Jeryang Park, Dr. P Suresh C RaoCivil Engineering, Purdue University, W. Lafayette IN
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Barriers to Building Resilient Infrastructure Systems1. Lack of understanding of what constitutes resilience.2. Interdependence of complex infrastructure systems obscures
understanding of those systems.3. Incentive and governance structures present obstacles, even where
understanding is sufficient.4. Resilience require socio-technical knowledge integration.
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Create a pluralistic, multi-disciplinary understanding of resilience.
1. Lack of understanding of what constitutes resilience.
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The Objectification of Risk
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Resilience is better understood as a series of interacting processes than a property of state.
More like a verb, and less like a noun.
new system stresses are incorporated into current understanding.
foresee possibilities
response taken after information from sensing and anticipation areincorporated into understanding.
Learning is the process by which new knowledgeis created and maintained by observation of past actions
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Decode System Inter-dependencies
2. Interdependence of complex infrastructure systems obscures understanding of those systems.
Heavy rains in August 2005 overtopped a massive culvert carrying the flow of Black Creek beneath Finch Ave in Toronto ONT.
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In 2003 drought disabled more than 30 European nuclear power plants
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High water temperatures in the South constrained power supply in 2007, raising electricity prices
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Drought in the Pacific Northwest crippled hydroelectric power in 2001
$3-6billion in damages
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M Bartos and M Chester, 2015, Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2648.
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3. Incentive and governance structures present obstacles, even where understanding is sufficient.
Build Anti-Fragile Governance Structures
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ROBUSTNESS ANTI-FRAGILITY
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4. Resilience require socio-technical knowledge integration.
Simulate Resilience Crises
Institutional ResilienceInfrastructure Resilience
Engineering Sustainability Political Science Social Science
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30 Jul
26 Sep
27 Oct
Summer 2014
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ACTORS RULES
POLICIES NORMS
INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENT
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Resilience requires new patterns of improvisational and adaptive thinking in design and
operation of infrastructure systems that can be enhanced
through practice with ‘surprise’ experiences in a simulated
complex network environment.
HypothesisBehavioral contributions to resilience will improve as a
result of simulated experiences.
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1927 Mississippi River Flood
Finding the positive case studies
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1993 Mississippi River Flood
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2011 Mississippi River Flood
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Adaptation
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9 Sep 2014
• 8 Sep 2014
17 Sep 2014
Non-stationarity: The future is no longer an extrapolation of the past.
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from fail-safe to safe-fail
from reduction to incompleteness
from definition to ambiguity
from specification to emergence
from reliability to recovery
from centralized to distributed
from probabilistic to possibilistic
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Further reading
This presentation is partially supported by NSF Grants 1140190 & 1441352 and includes contributions by @mikhailchester, @clarkamiller & Igor Linkov.