dr. robert wisner: grain outlook 3/15/06
DESCRIPTION
Dr. Robert Wisner: Grain Outlook 3/15/06. Brazil – mid-Feb. 2006. Dates are approximate. Key Corn Variables for 2006-2010. Fertilizer costs & crop rotations Ethanol trends – very positive Bird flu? China corn exports? Weather: U.S. & World?. Gap: $6.20. May 2006 Soybeans. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Iowa State University Extension
Dr. Robert Wisner: Grain Outlook Dr. Robert Wisner: Grain Outlook 3/15/063/15/06
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Brazil – mid-Feb. 2006
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19431943--5050 19591959
Tree in Tree in ParanaParana, Brazil (No. 2 soybean state), Brazil (No. 2 soybean state)Dates are approximate
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Key Corn Variables for 2006-2010
• Fertilizer costs & crop rotations
• Ethanol trends – very positive
• Bird flu?
• China corn exports?
• Weather: U.S. & World?
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Gap: $6.20
May 2006 Soybeans
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Nov. 2006 Soybeans
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May 2006 Corn
Gaps: $2.338 & $2.448 (Sept.& Aug. ’05)
Offer Contracts
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December 2006 Corn
Price Objectives: Gaps: June ’04: $2.665, $2.64,High of $2.69 On June 1, 2004.
Offer Contracts
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Monthly CRB Index
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Feed Grain OutlookFeed Grain Outlook • Large U.S. supplies• Gradual strength in W. Corn Belt Basis
& corn price into planting season• Stronger recovery in drought areas &
near ethanol plants• 1.3 billion bushel reserve tempers
possible ’06 yield problems • Wheat concerns • Tightening supply in ’08-’10
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World Supply Changes Vs. Last Year
• Soybeans +6.6%
–U.S. +2%
• Wheat +1%
• Feed Grain -1.0% –U.S. Corn +3%
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Monthly Natural Gas Futures
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Mar. ’06 Natural Gas Futures 53% drop from high
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13% ofU.S. WheatTX.-Ok.
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World stocks down 5% in ‘06: USDA
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Sac
Linn
Lee
Ida
Tama
Clay Kosuth
Jasper
Lyon
Page
Storyr Jones
Fayette
Adair
Bentonn
Wapello
Pocahontas
Osceola
Jefferson
Audubon
Washington
BuenaVista
BlackHawk
Appanoose
CerroGordo
VanBuren
Mucatine
Dickenson
DesMoines
Winnebago
Montgomery
Iowa Corn Processing & Ethanol Plant Locations, Actual & Planned, 3/20/06
PoweshiekPolk
BooneGreeneCarrollCrawford
Plymouth
O’Brien
Woodbury
Monona
Harrison Shelby
Wright Franklin
Floyd Chickasaw
Webster Hardin
Louisa
Emmet
Palo Alto
Hancock
Worth Mitchell HowardWinneshiek Allamakee
BremerButler
Hamilton GrundyBuchanan
Delaware
Dubuque
Jackson
Clintonn
Guthrie Dallas
Johnson
Marshall
Pottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Madison
Warren Marion Mahaska
Keokuk
Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe
Taylor Ringgold
Cherokee
Calhoun
Decatur Wayne Davis
Henry
Scott
Humboldt
Clayton
Cedar
Sioux
Cass
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Current & planned Iowa Corn Processing Plants, Normal Iowa Current & planned Iowa Corn Processing Plants, Normal Iowa corn production, & supplies available to ship out of statecorn production, & supplies available to ship out of state
Mil. bu. available to ship out of state is from normal production afterlarge carryover stocks have been used – provided corn acreage
remains at 2005 level. The market is likely to buy more corn acresIn future years.
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Proj. Proj. ’03 ’08 I ’08 II 115 10 -19
Proj. Proj. ’03 ’08 I ’08 II167 123 105
Proj. Proj. ’03 ’08 I ’08 II254 138 112
Proj. Proj. ’03 ’08 I ’08 II207 114 91 Proj. Proj.
’03 ’08 I ’08 II178 155 147
Proj. Proj. ’03 ’08 I ’08 II- 248 -296 -343
Proj. Proj. ’03 ’08 I ’08 II102 106 106 Proj. Proj.
’03 ’08 I ’08 II51 55 55
Proj. Proj. ’03 ’08 I ’08 II-24 -35 -49
Est. Corn Available for Export, 2003 and Proj. 2008, Mil. Bu.
Iowa Proj. Proj. ’03 ’08 I ’08 II803 370 205 Key Assumption: Corn acres @ 2004 level
67
90
125
86
117
-171 27
106
71 -53286
-34463
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?
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Iowa Corn Acres Projected from Non-soy Sources in 2010
• To corn from oats, hay 0.2 Mil. A.
• CRP land: 0.8 out of 1.2 mil. A. expire in 2005-09 going to corn/soybean rotation (50% to corn = 0.4 mil. A.)
• Yield potential on this land: 80% of state Avg.
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Total Iowa Acreage & Crop Rotations: Constant Corn Exports
• Total corn-SB acreage:• -- 2001 Corn 11.7 mil. A., SB 11.0 • -- Current, Corn 12.5 mil. A., SB 10.0
– 2010, Corn: 15.9 million acres– Soybeans: 7.8 million acres
• Iowa crop rotations: – Average in 2001: 48.5% soybeans, 51.5%
corn– Average in 2005: 44% soybeans, 56% corn– Projected average by 2010: 33%
soybeans, 67% corn
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Total Iowa Acreage & Crop Rotations: China Imports Corn
• Total corn-SB acreage, 2010:– Corn: 16.7 million acres– Soybeans: 6.9 million acres
• Iowa crop rotations: – Average in 2001: 48.5% soybeans, 51.5%
corn– Average in 2005: 44% soybeans, 56% corn– Projected average by 2010: 29.2%
soybeans, 70.8% corn
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What Could Alter the Projected Acreage Pattern?
• Accelerated Growth in Corn Yields• Some Ethanol Projects Put on Hold (not
in sight currently)• More CRP or Hay Acres Going to Corn• Iowa Losing Corn Export Share
(What states will make up difference?)• Ethanol production from biomass, sugar,
or imports• Plants not operating at full capacity• Reduced Livestock feeding
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Cumulative Corn Export Sales 3/02/06
• Japan +9% 453• Africa -11% 140• Taiwan +25% 124 • Other Asia +34% 134• W. Hemisphere +8% 424• Unknown +109% 51 Total +9% 1,276
Mil. Bu.
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Potential U.S. DGS demand by 20Potential U.S. DGS demand by 2012
COF @ 15% of ration 5.30 mil. T. Dairy @ 18% of ration 5.52 mil. T. Hogs @10% of ration 4.48 mil. T.Total 15.30 mil.T.
Potential productionPotential production 32.5 Mil. T.
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Soybean Outlook Soybean Outlook Large U.S. SB crop but < 2004 S. America ’05 crop underestimated?
Current good conditions in S. AmericaProjected drop in Brazil/Argent. Soy
Acres but ‘06 crop up 330 mil. Bu. Next 4-8 years: more DGS competionNext 4-8 years: more DGS competionBiodiesel Biodiesel Asian Soy Rust & bird flu?Asian Soy Rust & bird flu?
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Includes 05-06 projections
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Cumulative U.S. Soybean Export Sales 3/02/06 vs. yr. ago
• China -20% 319 mil. Bu.• Africa +12% 24 • EU -58% 65• Japan -4% 77• Taiwan +27% 48• Other Asia -24% 72• W. Hemisphere -1% 106 • Unknown -56% 16 Total -22% 740
SBM +1%; SBO -35%
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Key Developments to Watch
• Bird Flu• S. America: rust, weather, acres• Index funds• U.S. $• Soy Diesel
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Prices declined in 71% of the years & rose in 31% of the years.
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-.25
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Revenue Insurance is An Important Companion Tool for
Marketing• Not a substitute for marketing• Helps take advantage of attractive
prices when they are available• Helps deal with risk of over-selling a
crop not yet harvested• History says best pricing opportunities
often (but not always) occur well before harvest
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Insurance costs, Blackhawk county: Corn: APH $4.01, CRC $8.28, SB $3.15 & $5.74http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/insurance/2006/premium_table_2006.asp
http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/insurance/2006/premium_table_2006.asp
Crop Insurance Comparisons 2006 Corn Soybeans
Historical yld.
150 bu./A. Net Indemnity Pmt.
45 bu./A. Net Indemnity Pmt.
APH Price 2.00/bu. $5.15 APH Prem. $4.88/bu. Wapello co.,
IA $3.87 Wapello co., IA
CRC Price $2.59 $6.18 CRC Prem. $9.64/bu. Wapello co.,
IA $6.77 Wapello co., IA
% Insured 75% 75% Harv. Yield 80 bu./A. 33 bu./A. Harv. Fut. Price I
$2.15/bu.
CRC APH $109.74 $60.12
$5.45/bu.
CRC APH $21.96 -$0.01
Harv. Fut. Price II
$3.00/bu.
CRC APH $87.86 $60.12
$6.45/Bu.
CRC APH -$1.93 -$0.01
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Marketing Considerations • Offer Contracts: an important Mktg. tool
• Old-crop corn: July futures @ $.20 above March, Sept. $.27 above March
• Basis likely stronger in April-early July
• Creates potential profit from farm storage
• Cash bids: Mallard, 49 Under for current delivery; 45 Under for June-July delivery
• New-Generation Grain Contracts
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Marketing Considerations • Old-crop beans: July futures @ $. 195 above
March, Sept. $.175 above March • Basis likely stronger in April-July• Creates modest potential profit from farm
storage• Cash bids: • Mallard, 51 Under for current delivery; • July delivery bids, 55 Under• Oct. delivery: corn 47 under, SB 50 under
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Nov. Soybeans: History as a guide for offer contracts ‘95-05
Price Number of years Percent of years $7.20 4/11 36 7.00 5/11 45 6.80 7/11 64 6.60 7/11 64 6.40 8/11 73 6.20 8/11 73 6.00 9/11 82 5.80 10/11 91 5.60 11/11 100 5.40 11/11 100 5.20 11/11 100
Based on trades over life of November futuresHistory is no guarantee of future performance
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Corn: History as a guide for offer contracts ‘95-05 Price Number of years Percent of years $3.20 3/11 27 3.10 4/11 36 3.00 7/11 64 2.90 7/11 64 2.80 7/11 64 2.70 8/11 73 2.60 9/11 82 2.50 10/11 91 2.40 11/11 100 2.30 11/11 100
Based on trades over life of December futuresHistory is no guarantee of future performance
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http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/wisner/
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...and justice for allThe U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Many materials can be made available in alternative formats for ADA clients. To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call 202-720-5964.
Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Stanley R. Johnson, director, Cooperative Extension Service, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.