dr. paul v. desanker penn state university, usa & miombo network (malawi) desanker@psu

Need for National Integrated Assessment Models for Adaptation and Emphasis on Local Coping and Indigenous Technologies

Dr. Paul V. DesankerPenn State University, USA & Miombo Network (Malawi)[email protected]

COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC

Self Introduction Assoc Prof of Geography, Penn State University, USA Founding member and Coordinator, IGBP/LUCC/START

Miombo Network since 1994 CLA IPCC TAR WGII Africa Chapter LDC NAPA Technical Development Team Member of IPCC TGCIA Research on integrated assessment of climate change, in

particular, extremes, in southern African Miombo region (Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique)

Tool development for rapid assessment of vulnerability and adaptation (PRIVA) in LDCs under NAPA or at any level

Research on Land use/land cover change and impacts, and role in adaptation


Integrated Assessment Past models mostly global, and emphasize impacts

conditional on emission pathways – adaptations not explicit

Global nature require that developing regions be aggregated, into one or very few subregions for Africa despite large size and great diversity in factors controlling vulnerability

Global integrated assessment models have been very useful in framing the climate change issue, such as the comprehensive assessments of the IPCC such as under SRES (IPCC 2000)

Global conclusions not necessarily compatible with regional and national conclusions


Global Versus National or Local Global conclusions not necessarily compatible with regional

and national conclusions

For example, take Food Security, globally can conclude that the world will produce enough food to feed its population HOWEVER, the conclusions are very different for national and local levels.

And for water, modeling studies that look at major river flows are not applicable to major water requirements where reliance is on underground water or non-river based sources

In any case, Africa short-changed by studies that can not resolve national levels; as well as due consideration of other problems facing Africa: health, poverty, globalization, subsidies, etc


Needs for Integrated Assessments in Africa Assessment of impacts needed at local to national level,

including explicit representation of costs and benefits to guide decision making

This is not the same as re-framing global to continental assessments at the national and local level

Important decisions are made at global (in relation to the UNFCCC process) or at the national level for national planning and local implementation

This requires that information be produced for each country in relation to local, regional and global linkages as appropriate


What is the Miombo Network doing about this?

Case studies of local coping to floods and droughts – documenting experiences and results

Developing participatory rapid integrated V&A (PRIVA) for use in NAPA


Linking impacts to vulnerability in PRIVA

V(climatic hazard) =

F { Risk (climatic hazard) ;

Impact Potential (Sensitivity (hazard)

Coping Range (system_f(climate));

Coping Ability (determinants|hazard)) }


Framing Adaptation in PRIVA in terms of Eqn 2

Define adaptation to minimize vulnerability through any of the following:

By reducing the risk associated with hazards by manipulating components of risk

(Removing/reducing hazard through mitigation is outside domain of analysis for the LDCs)

Reduce impact potential through manipulation of the system dependence on climate (cropping manipulations for instance)

By increasing coping ability (e.g addressing key determinants such as poverty, access to financial resources, etc)


Figure 1. Main steps in a participatory process of developing National Adaptation Programmes of Action. Where adequate information exists to complete aNAPA, the country would use the steps under Level I, otherwise hey would conduct synthesis or even data limited data analysis by including Levels II and III.

Build MultidisciplinaryNAPA Teams

Define Goals and Criteria,Review Policies & Identify

Synergies Collate AvailableData & Information

Select PriorityAdaptation Needs usingParticipatory Approach

Develop Project Profiles, ShowIntegration into National Policy

Frameworks & Projects & Submit NAPA

ConductParticipatory Rapid

IntegratedAssessment ofVulnerability

Rank Projects &Activities

Conduct ParticipatoryAssessment to Identify

Urgent AdaptationOptions

Select HighlyVulnerable Sectors,

Systems& Sub-Regions

Identify Hazards,Risks and Coping

Identify UrgentAdaptation Options

Characterize Risk

Characterize CopingAbility

CharacterizeVulnerability

Level I Level IIILevel II

InformationAdequate?

Synthesize AvailableVulnerability Assessments

Identify ClimaticHazards

NAPA Process (from NAPA Primer, Desanker et al. 2003)


Current Coping RangeCurrent Coping Range

Climate Change Extremes and Coping RangeClimate Change Extremes and Coping Range

ClimaticAttribute (X)

ClimaticAttribute (X)

Time (years)Time (years)

Current ClimateCurrent Climate Changed ClimateChanged ClimateTransition period –

NAPA domain


Cascading or nested spatial scales Apply PRIVA in successive spatial scales until issue is

manageable – in relation to stakeholders, or in terms of funding limitations

For example, apply at national level to identify/select most vulnerable regions and systems or sectors or communities (“hotspots”)

Can then re-apply PRIVA for the selected regions

Iterate until can identify clear actions (adaptation activities) that are easily implementable and address specific communities/locations (action-orientedness, etc)


Adaptation – a local level process Makes sense when localized in implementation, while ideally

taking into account (unknown) global forcing of climate hazards

Inherent uncertainty in climate projections implies decision making in adaptation not trivial: need application of appropriate decision frameworks

For the short term, expect transient changes, so enhance coping as one strategy

major improvements in predictions/projects to identify general direction of hazard and risk


Local Coping and Indigenous Technologies Our studies in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique

under AIACC, indicate Diversity of local coping to immediate problems associated with

erratic rains, persistent droughts, increased flooding, etc. Examples include staggered planting of main food crops to improve

likelihood of a good harvest; change in crop species planted; shift to buying food versus local production; water harvesting techniques

Most of these decisions made at community level without comprehensive assessments of costs and benefits, or explicit consideration of what future changes might be

Danger that climate will continue to change, and may results in total breakdown of local production systems. NEED MORE CASE STUDIES TO INTEGRATED CONVENTIONAL AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

Elsewhere, indigenous technologies exist to cope with persistent adverse climatic conditions.

Qanat:(Kariz/ Surangam/ Foggara/ Falaj)

Centre for Sustainable DevelopmentCentre for Sustainable DevelopmentCENESTA, IranCENESTA, Iran

M.R HAERIM.R HAERI


Tausug house with rainwater collection system, Philipines


Priorities for improving the stateof knowledge & information exchange in Integrated Assessment

Need data on costs and benefits of specific adaptation activities including EIAs to evaluate long-term sustainability

Need more implementations of national integrated models to address adaptation planning, to include due consideration of policy issues, synergies with other MEAs, multiple stresses, etc

Need regional balance in discussion and development of these tools and analyses


Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what specific actions or activities from this body could help address the issues 1/3.

Encourage targeted research in the development of regional integrated models that emphasize vulnerability, risk assessment and local community needs.

Encourage sharing of knowledge and experiences with integrated assessment for the developing countries, especially at the regional level through regional workshops

Regional networks are invaluable in reaching national and regional decision makers, managers and scientists, there is need to encourage work of these networks and encourage development of new networks where none exist.



Facilitate exchange of experiences on local coping and indigenous technologies especially between countries/regions along a path of possible future change: e.g. historically flooded areas with new areas subject to repeated floods; also for droughts

Facilitate EIA of technologies and activities especially for adaptation to safeguard against mal-adaptation and to build sustainable adaptation solutions



While no one-size-fits all, there are a small set of adaptations to floods and droughts – such as changing crop types and planting;

there is need to thoroughly assess how this can be done effectively taking into account uncertainties in climate predictions (seasonal and long-term); risks in decision making at local and national levels, strategies to minimize risk of failure, research needed to ensure proper hybrids and provenances of species are available (do this beyond spatial assessments of crop suitability that are easily done using GIS),

and go beyond generic prescriptions such as “change crops” as an adaptation.

dr. paul v. desanker penn state university, usa & miombo network (malawi) desanker@psu

Documents

national levels

national planning

national conclusionsglobal

local levels

integrated assessments

case studies of local

local implementationthis

adaptation priva