Dr. Max Loewenstein ESD/ARCDr. Laura Iraci ESD/ARC, Dr. Cristina Milesi CSUMB/ARC

With Contributions from Katie Pitts, Ariana Gonzales, and Matthew Little (NASA Develop),

Nicole Burroughs (NASA USRP)18-19 July 2011

Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) Workshop II

Climate Change Adaptation Research At NASA Ames Research

Center

Center OverviewBackground and Mission

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• ARC @ Mt. View CA, Southern SF Bay, N Silicon Valley

• 2800 employed

• Roles: Astrobiology, Supercomputing, Aeronautics, Nanotechnology

• NASA mission support: National airspace safety, Thermal protection (shuttle, Mars missions), Search for habitable planets, EOS & OCO Satellite validation

• Assets: Simulators, Wind Tunnels, 20G Centrifuge, Pleiades Supercomputer

• And: Earth science, Extreme environments=Mars analogs

ESPO supports airborne science/Icebridge (Icesat fill-in)

3

• Mediterranean climate, dry season, rainy season

• Climate Hazards:

• SL Rise: loose half of the runway w. 40 cm SLR and levees failure, affect plume of soil contaminants

Center OverviewClimate Hazards and

Vulnerabilities

Source: IPCC, NOAA, USGS

SRES A1B Projection

Golden Gate gauge

Local vs Global Sea Level Rise

40cm by 2050

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• Mediterranean climate, dry season, rainy season

• Climate Hazards:

• SL Rise: loose half of the runway w. 40 cm SLR and levees failure, affect plume of soil contaminants

• Increased storm/precipitation intensities: Center flooding (Feb 1998 flooded the Center; was an El Nino year)

• Earlier snowmelt =>increase in power and water costs

• Vulnerabilities:

• Levees of inadequate height

• Wildlife, wetland conservation (mandated by US Fish & Wildlife)

• Air permits

Center OverviewClimate Hazards and

Vulnerabilities

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Research: Historical and Projected Temperatures and Cooling Degree

Days

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Moffett Field, CA

Moffett Field, CA

Days with T > 90F

San Jose, CA

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Research: Historical and Projected Precipitation

No historical trend, but occasional extremes precip in El Niño years

Modeled 1997/8 streamflowProjected streamflow with precipitation increased 15%

Sandbagging during 1997/8 flood

Research: Research: Coupling Climate and Land Use Coupling Climate and Land Use ChangeChange

Projected Impervious Surface under SRES A1B2010 to 2100 Bierwagen et al. (PNAS) 2010

SRES A1 vs A2 over US urban areas

(kg

C)

(km

2)

(mm

)

2100 Runoff

2100 Vegetation Productivity

+54%

+110%

+60%

+90%

-40%

-25%

Impervious Area

GPP

Runoff

2100 Tmax

2100 Precip

Research: Coupling Climate and Land Use Coupling Climate and Land Use ChangeChange

TOPS outputs based on GFDL 1950-2100

1km downscaled Tmax, Tmin, Precip, VPD,

veg productivity (GPP), ET, runoff

Coupled Climate-LUC impact on Ecosystem Services

Research: Coupling Climate and Land Use ChangeCoupling Climate and Land Use ChangeClimate Impacts on Ecosystem Services at NASA ARC

Research: Climate Change impact on ARC Water Source Ecosystem

Center Inventory

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies at NASA Ames Research Center

Hind- And Forecasting Flood Risk Of Nasa Ames Research Center Using The Basins Model

Cal-Adapt

Tides and Currents

NCDC meteorological obs for Moffett Field, CANCDC meteorological obs for Palo Alto, CANCDC meteorological obs for San Jose, CA

TOPS coupled climate/land use change projections

Sea level rise and inundation datasets

Tidal Datum and Recurrence Interval

Datasets and GIS layers White Papers Reports Websites

Full Details on Central Desktop

2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy

SPUR Report: Climate Change Hits Home

Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution

Mountain View Environmental Sustainability Task Force Report

Base Year 2008 Bay Area Emissions Inventory Summary Report

ARC Environmental Management DivisionARC Environmental Management Division Public

Horizon2035

NASA's Sustainability Base

Cal-Adapt

SF Bay Area Climate Portal

Climate-Related Interactions with ARC Managers

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• Chief of the ARC Environmental Management Division (EMD) is a collaborator on our climate adaptation proposal

• Green Ames Monthly Meetings with EMD and Facilities personnel

• Periodic updates with ARC Master Planner

• Organizing AGU session with ARC Sustainability Lead (reports to Center Deputy Director Zornetzer)

• Adaptation measures already implemented in response to Executive Order (GHG emissions reduction w. electric vehicles, water reclamation on golf course, LEED Platinum Sustainability Building)

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•Posters Presented at AGU 2010

•Bay Area stakeholders attended ARC Adaptation Workshop (SFPUC, CEC, USACE, SF Bay Conservation & Development Commission, neighboring towns)

•Presentation with Ann Clarke at Association of Women for Energy and Environment

•Interest from Palo Alto City Council 

•Greenhouse Gas Strategies in a Changing Climate Panel at Air & Waste Management Association Conference (Nov 2011, San Francisco)

•Organizing session at AGU 2011PA11. Climate Change Science for Communities and Institutions

Climate-Related Interactions Outside Community

To the Center:

- Needs resources to enable audits and implement adaptation measures (meters, valves, timers)

- Incorporate cost-benefit analysis under CC

- Close the loop of the CASI efforts through more effective communication with decision makers (participation in Facilities Utilization Review Board?)

- Collect more data (wind, soil moisture, ..)

To other NASA Centers, Nation/Globe:

- We are sharing data resources on NEX

- Preliminary TOPS outputs are available for continental US: coupled climate/LUC analysis can be repeated for other NASA Centers, watersheds, cities

- Workflow capturing allows rapid implementation of runs/analysis to other regions of the globe

Extending CASI Benefits

40cm SLR overlaid on SF Bay map

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Sustainability Base: Platinum LEED

Precip trends

M Pr trend A1B1 -0.05822 -0.013243 -0.035544 -0.059615 -0.030586 -0.004337 -0.000418 -0.00269 -0.0091410 -0.0339311 -0.0309612 -0.00152

M Pr trend A1B1 -0.084032 -0.00153 -0.052044 -0.085435 -0.080696 -0.029197 -0.013578 -0.010259 -0.0145510 -0.0427311 -0.0421812 0.00557

Pr trend A20.165110.00909-0.15146-0.10813-0.08909-0.02561-0.01123-0.00222-0.02447-0.07532-0.115-0.0172

Pr trend A20.12091-0.00091-0.11086-0.07275-0.02814-0.00375-0.000570.00103-0.01109-0.05067-0.07261-0.01757

Coyote Upper Tuolumne