dr. madhu khanna university of illinois, urbana-champaigndr. madhu khanna university of illinois,...
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Dr. Madhu Khanna
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
1. Biofuels and bio-products competitive with fossil fuels.
2. Optimize production to reduce competition for arable land across food, feed, and fuel production.
3. Enhance fuel feedstock production on marginal land for efficient land use.
4. Optimize feedstock production for the provisioning of ecosystem services, providing clean air and water, as well as healthy soils and habitat.
What Does a Future With 16 Billion Gallons of Cellulosic Biofuel in 2022 Look Like?
1.7
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1.9
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2.1
2.2
2.3
2007 2012 2017 2022
Greenhouse Gas Savings with the RFS (B MT)
No policy RFS RFS+CBPTC
Economic and Policy Challenges to Sustainable Biofuels Need high yielding, low carbon, low input, dedicated energy crops,
and also make use of residues and waste feedstocks
Need cost-competitive conversion technology
Policies Options for Supply Chain Development:
• Incentives for production of feedstocks for farmers
• R&D and low cost innovation loans to improve conversion technology
• Ease blending constraints by incentivizing flex fuel vehicles and related infrastructure
• Renewable fuel standards that assure demand by blenders
300 Acre Energy Farm at University of Illinois
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Corn ethanol Sugarcane Wheat straw ethanol
Stover ethanol
Switchgrass ethanol
Miscanthus ethanol
Energy Cane
Biofuel Yield: Gallons per Acre (Dwivedi et al., 2015)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Talladega, AL Marion, IL Adams, IN Talladega, AL Marion, IL Adams, IN
Effect of Soil Quality on Yields (Metric tons/ha )
High Quality Soil Low Quality Soil
Switchgrass
Miscanthus
(Dwivedi et al., 2015)
(Dwivedi et al., 2015)
Miscanthus produces
140% - 170% Savings of
GHG for each Unit of
Production
Corn Stover results in a 50%- 90% Savings of
GHG for each Unit of
Production
Switchgrass results in
100% - 130% GHG, but the Unit Cost of
Production is More
Variable.
Ecosystem Service Provisioning Water Quality Impacts
• Energy grass nitrate loads = only 10% of total corn nitrate loads after 4 years of establishment
• Corn stover can reduce nitrate loading but increase erosion and sediment run off.
• Limits on stover removal rate are critical for ES provisioning.
Smith et al., 2010
Nitrates
Cost of corn ethanol declined by 45% as production increased 17-fold since 1983
Cost of sugarcane ethanol declined by 70% as production increased 30-fold since 1979
Can we observe a similar trend with technology forcing policies for cellulosics?
Chen and Khanna, 2012
Risk Premium $ per ton Yield Risk Relative to Corn
Miscanthus
Switchgrass
< -30
-30 to -20
-20 to -10
-10 to -0
0 to 10
10 to 20
20 to 30
> 30
Low risk
High risk
Miao and Khanna, 2014
Biomass Crop Assistance Program Provides establishment cost share subsidies for perennial energy
crops
Covers the opportunity cost of land during establishment years
Offsets disincentives due to low biomass price, liquidity constraints and high discount rates
2014 Farm Bill Policy
However, funding in the Farm Bill 2014 is limited to $25 million a year for 5 years
Enough incentive for cellulosic feedstocks?
Up to half could be spent on crop and forest residues
Reaping the Benefits of Advanced Biofuels Through Policy
LCFS Implementation Experience from California: Affecting the Mix of LC Fuels
Summary: Policy Choices
Based on research with:
Ruiqing Miao
Weiwei Wang
Puneet Dwivedi
Tara Hudiburg
Melannie Hartman
William Parton
Evan Delucia
Steve Long
Deepak Jaiswal
Email: [email protected] http://ace.illinois.edu/directory/madhu-khanna