dr lawrence yun's recovery to normalcy presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Recovery to NormalcyRecovery to NormalcyRecovery to NormalcyRecovery to Normalcy
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.Chief EconomistChief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation to or at ???Presentation to or at ???City, StateCity, Statey,y,
November ??, 2010November ??, 2010
Federal Reserve FOMC Federal Reserve FOMC •• Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke (Chairman): (Chairman):
•• “Outlook remains unusually uncertain”“Outlook remains unusually uncertain”yy
•• Alan Greenspan Alan Greenspan (former Chairman):(former Chairman):•• “If home prices start falling again, we could be facing a double“If home prices start falling again, we could be facing a double‐‐dipdipIf home prices start falling again, we could be facing a doubleIf home prices start falling again, we could be facing a double dip dip recession” recession”
•• James Bullard James Bullard (St. Louis Fed)(St. Louis Fed): : •• “The U.S. is closer to a Japanese“The U.S. is closer to a Japanese‐‐style deflationary outcome”style deflationary outcome”
•• Thomas Thomas HoenigHoenig (Kansas City Fed)(Kansas City Fed): : gg ( y )( y )•• “Too rapid money creation results in eventual high inflation”“Too rapid money creation results in eventual high inflation”
Consumer Confidence about Consumer Confidence about P t C diti A f lP t C diti A f lPresent Conditions: AwfulPresent Conditions: Awful
200
100
150
0
50
980 ‐Jan
981 ‐A
pr1982
‐Jul
983 ‐O
ct985 ‐Jan
986 ‐A
pr1987
‐Jul
988 ‐O
ct990 ‐Jan
991 ‐A
pr1992
‐Jul
993 ‐O
ct995 ‐Jan
996 ‐A
pr1997
‐Jul
998 ‐O
ct000 ‐Jan
001 ‐A
pr2002
‐Jul
003 ‐O
ct005 ‐Jan
006 ‐A
pr2007
‐Jul
008 ‐O
ct010 ‐Jan
19 19 1 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 1 19 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20
Consumer Confidence about Consumer Confidence about Future ConditionsFuture Conditions Not good but not as badNot good but not as badFuture Conditions Future Conditions –– Not good but not as badNot good but not as bad
120140
6080100120
02040
9.6% unemployment rate, but different confidence level
980 ‐Jan
981 ‐A
pr1982
‐Jul
983 ‐O
ct985 ‐Jan
986 ‐A
pr1987
‐Jul
988 ‐O
ct990 ‐Jan
991 ‐A
pr1992
‐Jul
993 ‐O
ct995 ‐Jan
996 ‐A
pr1997
‐Jul
998 ‐O
ct000 ‐Jan
001 ‐A
pr2002
‐Jul
003 ‐O
ct005 ‐Jan
006 ‐A
pr2007
‐Jul
008 ‐O
ct010 ‐Jan
19 19 1 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 1 19 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20
Business Spending shows weak confidence Business Spending shows weak confidence in relation to profitsin relation to profitsin relation to profitsin relation to profits
2200
2700
Business InvestmentBusiness Investment
$ billion$ billion
1200
1700
2200 Business Investment Business Investment
200
700
1200Corporate ProfitsCorporate Profits
200
000 ‐Q
2
000 ‐Q
4
001 ‐Q
2
001 ‐Q
4
002 ‐Q
2
002 ‐Q
4
003 ‐Q
2
003 ‐Q
4
004 ‐Q
2
004 ‐Q
4
005 ‐Q
2
005 ‐Q
4
006 ‐Q
2
006 ‐Q
4
007 ‐Q
2
007 ‐Q
4
008 ‐Q
2
008 ‐Q
4
009 ‐Q
2
009 ‐Q
4
010 ‐Q
2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Business Investment = private fixed investment in GDP accountingBusiness Investment = private fixed investment in GDP accounting
REALTORS’ Home Value Expectation:REALTORS’ Home Value Expectation:h hh hover the next 12 monthsover the next 12 months
70%80% Increase or Stable
30%40%50%60%
0%10%20%30%
t v c b r r y g p t v c b r r y g p
Decrease
2008
‐Oct
008 ‐N
ov008 ‐D
ec2009
‐Jan
2009
‐Feb
009 ‐M
ar2009
‐Ap
r009 ‐M
ay2009
‐Jun
2009
‐Jul
009 ‐A
ug2009
‐Sep
2009
‐Oct
009 ‐N
ov009 ‐D
ec2010
‐Jan
2010
‐Feb
010 ‐M
ar2010
‐Ap
r010 ‐M
ay2010
‐Jun
2010
‐Jul
010 ‐A
ug2010
‐Sep
2 20 2 2 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 2 20 2 2 2 20 2 20 2 20 2
REALTOR Expectation vs RealityDate % respondents saying prices will have
fallen at this time from 12 month priorCase‐Shiller price change
2009.1051%
‐7.3
2009.1156%
‐5.4
2009.1260%
‐3.1
2010.01 0 72010.0155%
‐0.7
2010.0254%
+0.7
2010.0343% (minority say falling price)
+2.3 (price did not fall)43% (minority say falling price)
2010.0435%
+3.8
2010.0535%
+4.6
2010.0636%
+4.2
2010.0736%
+3.2
Government Spending (Confidence)Government Spending (Confidence)p g ( )p g ( )
3200
3700
Government OutlayGovernment Outlay
$ billion$ billion
2200
2700
3200 Government OutlayGovernment Outlay
1200
1700
2200Government ReceiptGovernment Receipt
200
700
1200
2002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP Growing, but without vigorGDP Growing, but without vigorg, gg, g
1012
annualized % growth rateannualized % growth rate
6810
024
‐6‐4‐2
1980
‐Q1
1981
‐Q2
1982
‐Q3
1983
‐Q4
1985
‐Q1
1986
‐Q2
1987
‐Q3
1988
‐Q4
1990
‐Q1
1991
‐Q2
1992
‐Q3
1993
‐Q4
1995
‐Q1
1996
‐Q2
1997
‐Q3
1998
‐Q4
2000
‐Q1
2001
‐Q2
2002
‐Q3
2003
‐Q4
2005
‐Q1
2006
‐Q2
2007
‐Q3
2008
‐Q4
2010
‐Q1
‐10‐8
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
U.S. U.S. PrivatePrivate Sector Job GainsSector Job Gains(863 000 f J t S 2010)(863 000 f J t S 2010)(863,000 from Jan. to Sep. 2010)(863,000 from Jan. to Sep. 2010)
1500MonthMonth‐‐toto‐‐month job gains in thousandsmonth job gains in thousands
1000
0
500
‐500
0
80 ‐Jan
81 ‐Ap
r82
‐Jul
83 ‐Oct
85 ‐Jan
86 ‐Ap
r87
‐Jul
88 ‐Oct
90 ‐Jan
91 ‐Ap
r92
‐Jul
93 ‐Oct
95 ‐Jan
96 ‐Ap
r97
‐Jul
98 ‐Oct
00 ‐Jan
01 ‐Ap
r02
‐Jul
03 ‐Oct
05 ‐Jan
06 ‐Ap
r07
‐Jul
08 ‐Oct
10 ‐Jan
‐1000
198
198
19 198
198
198
19 198
199
199
19 199
199
199
19 199
200
200
20 200
200
200
20 200
201
Total Payroll Jobs in the U.S. Total Payroll Jobs in the U.S. ( i 2000 b t ith 30 illi l )( i 2000 b t ith 30 illi l )(same as in 2000, but with 30 million more people)(same as in 2000, but with 30 million more people)
138000140000
132000134000136000138000
126000128000130000132000
124000126000
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
‐Jan ‐Jul
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
How Many Years to Get Job Market B k t N l?Back to Normal?
Jobs added per month Assumed new jobs needed for growing population per month
How many years?
100,000 100,000 Treading water and never back to normal
200,000 100,000 6.3 years300,000 100,000 3.2 years400,000 100,000 2.1 years
Total Payroll Jobs Total Payroll Jobs in Boulder and Ft. Collinsin Boulder and Ft. CollinsIn thousands
160
180
120
140
100
120
Source: BLS
Total Payroll Jobs Total Payroll Jobs in Denverin Denver‐‐AuroraAuroraIn thousands
12501300
110011501200
1100
Source: BLS
Total Payroll Jobs in MichiganTotal Payroll Jobs in Michigan
5000In thousands
4500
5000
4000
3500
Source: BLS
Total Payroll Jobs in Washington D.C. MetroTotal Payroll Jobs in Washington D.C. Metro
2600In thousands
2400
2200
2000
Source: BLS)
LongLong‐‐term Job Growth in Colorado (30 years)term Job Growth in Colorado (30 years)In thousands
2100
2600
1600
2100
1100
Source: BLS
Existing Home Sales (Closings)Existing Home Sales (Closings)g ( g )g ( g )70000007500000
Tax Credit ImpactTax Credit Impact
5000000550000060000006500000
3000000350000040000004500000
00 ‐Feb
00 ‐Au
g01
‐Feb
01 ‐Au
g02
‐Feb
02 ‐Au
g03
‐Feb
03 ‐Au
g04
‐Feb
04 ‐Au
g05
‐Feb
05 ‐Au
g06
‐Feb
06 ‐Au
g07
‐Feb
07 ‐Au
g08
‐Feb
08 ‐Au
g09
‐Feb
09 ‐Au
g10
‐Feb
10 ‐Au
g
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 201
Colorado Existing Home Sales: Quarterly Change
20 % change from a year ago Tax Credit Tax Credit ImpactImpact
0
10
20
-10
-30
-20
Median Home Price in Denver AreaMedian Home Price in Denver Area
250
300$ thousand$ thousand
150
200
50
100
Separate Case‐Shiller Index shows Denver price gain of 2% from 18 months ago0
Separate Case Shiller Index shows Denver price gain of 2% from 18 months ago
Source: Source: NARNAR
Distressed Loans and Shadow Inventory
6,000
7,000
Mortgage Payments Past Due 30‐59 Days
Bad loans are nearly always made in good Bad loans are nearly always made in good times. But recently originated loans are times. But recently originated loans are
f i llf i ll
4,000
5,000
Thou
sand
s
Mortgage Payments PastDue 90+ Days
performing very well.performing very well.
2,000
3,000Past Due 90+ Days
Mortgage
0
1,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
g gForeclosures Started
2006
/Q
2006
/Q
2006
/Q
2006
/Q
2007
/Q
2007
/Q
2007
/Q
2007
/Q
2008
/Q
2008
/Q
2008
/Q
2008
/Q
2009
/Q
2009
/Q
2009
/Q
2009
/Q Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory
Newly Built Home Inventory and Newly Built Home Inventory and Its Shadow InventoryIts Shadow InventoryIts Shadow InventoryIts Shadow Inventory
600700
300400500
100200300
0
‐Feb
0 ‐Jul
‐Dec
‐May
‐Oct
‐Mar
‐Aug
3 ‐Jan
‐Jun
‐Nov
‐Apr
‐Sep
‐Feb
5 ‐Jul
‐Dec
‐May
‐Oct
‐Mar
‐Aug
8 ‐Jan
‐Jun
‐Nov
‐Apr
‐Sep
‐Feb
0 ‐Jul
2000
2000
2000
2001
‐2001
2002
‐2002
200 3
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
200 5
2005
2006
‐2006
2007
‐2007
200 8
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
201 0
Housing Starts in Denver‐Aurora
40 000
In thousands
25,00030,00035,00040,000
10,00015,00020,00025,000
05,000
Return to Normalcyy
• Unprecedented Boom and Bust: 2000 to 2010• Sales Boomed and Retreated P i O h t d C t d• Prices Overshot and Corrected
• Fundamental Back to Justifiable Levels• Long‐standing Housing Policy still in place
d k bbl h d• Credit Market Bubble … out the window
National Median Home PriceNational Median Home Price250,000
150,000
200,000
50 000
100,000
0
50,000
Source: NARSource: NAR
Home Price and Construction Cost(No Bubble Now)(No Bubble Now)
160170
NAR Price Index
120130140150
NAR Price Index
90100110120
PPI Residential Construction Cost Index80
000 ‐Feb
000 ‐M
ay000 ‐A
ug000 ‐N
ov001 ‐Feb
001 ‐M
ay001 ‐A
ug001 ‐N
ov002 ‐Feb
002 ‐M
ay002 ‐A
ug002 ‐N
ov003 ‐Feb
003 ‐M
ay003 ‐A
ug003 ‐N
ov004 ‐Feb
004 ‐M
ay004 ‐A
ug004 ‐N
ov005 ‐Feb
005 ‐M
ay005 ‐A
ug005 ‐N
ov006 ‐Feb
006 ‐M
ay006 ‐A
ug006 ‐N
ov007 ‐Feb
007 ‐M
ay007 ‐A
ug007 ‐N
ov008 ‐Feb
008 ‐M
ay008 ‐A
ug008 ‐N
ov009 ‐Feb
009 ‐M
ay
2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 2 0 20 20 2 2 0 20 20 2 20
Credit Bubble DeadCredit Bubble DeadSubprime AltSubprime Alt‐‐A Home Equity Mortgage OriginationA Home Equity Mortgage OriginationSubprime, AltSubprime, Alt A, Home Equity Mortgage OriginationA, Home Equity Mortgage Origination
1 400
1,600$ billion$ billion
1,000
1,200
1,400
400
600
800
0
200
400
2003 2005-2006 2009-2010
Source: NAR estimate based on Inside Mortgage Finance dataSource: NAR estimate based on Inside Mortgage Finance data
Long Standing Housing Policy• Mortgage Interest Deduction
– If eliminated about 15% hit to home valuesIf eliminated, about 15% hit to home values– Massive wealth destruction on property owners who have saved and saved (in many cases to pass it on to the nextsaved and saved (in many cases to pass it on to the next generation)
• FHA– Self‐financing without ever needing taxpayer funds (as of yet)
• Fannie and Freddie– Made mistakes and need to be restructured
Long‐Term Path to Self Reliance may be Helped from Long‐Term Path to Self Reliance may be Helped from
$300,00020072007
Long‐Term Housing Wealth Gains Long‐Term Housing Wealth Gains
19982001 2004
$200,000
$250,000 2007Median Family Net Worth2010
1995
$100,000
$150,000
1995 1998 2001 2004$0
$50,000
Renter Homeowner
2007 2010
Renter Homeowner
Source: Federal Reserve, NAR estimate for 2010
Compelling Affordabilityhl bMonthly Mortgage to buy a Median Priced Home
2005 Q2 2010 Q2
S Di $ 2 833 $ 1 564San Diego $ 2,833 $ 1,564
Miami $ 1,726 $ 853
Denver $ 1,192 $ 935
Kansas City $ 735 $ 600
Inflationary Pressure ?Indicator % change from one year ago
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1.1%
Housing Rent Component CPI 0.2% (but heading higher?)
Producer Price Index (Finished Product) 4.0%
Producer Price Index (Intermediate Product) 5.5%
Producer Price Index (Crude Product) 20.2%
Commodity: Coffee Cotton Wheat Meat Very highCommodity: Coffee, Cotton, Wheat, Meat Very high
Gold Price Record High Price
CPICPI‐‐Housing Rent InflationHousing Rent Inflation( f b f / )( f b f / )(Home price is not part of CPI because of asset/investment aspect)(Home price is not part of CPI because of asset/investment aspect)
5 %
3
4
fl
1
2Housing Rent Inflation
0
1
an Apr
Jul
Oct an Apr
Jul
Oct an Apr
Jul
Oct an Apr
Jul
Oct an Apr
Jul
Oct an Apr
Jul
‐1
2005
‐Ja
2005
‐A
2005
‐J
2005
‐O
2006
‐Ja
2006
‐A
2006
‐J
2006
‐O
2007
‐Ja
2007
‐A
2007
‐J
2007
‐O
2008
‐Ja
2008
‐A
2008
‐J
2008
‐O
2009
‐Ja
2009
‐A
2009
‐J
2009
‐O
2010
‐Ja
2010
‐A
2010
‐J
Homeownership RateHomeownership Ratepp
6970
6566676869
6162636465
6061
‐Q1
‐Q2
‐Q3
‐Q4
‐Q1
‐Q2
‐Q3
‐Q4
‐Q1
‐Q2
‐Q3
‐Q4
‐Q1
‐Q2
‐Q3
‐Q4
‐Q1
‐Q2
‐Q3
‐Q4
‐Q1
‐Q2
‐Q3
‐Q4
‐Q1
1980
‐1981
‐1982
‐1983
‐1985
‐1986
‐1987
‐1988
‐1990
‐1991
‐1992
‐1993
‐1995
‐1996
‐1997
‐1998
‐2000
‐2001
‐2002
‐2003
‐2005
‐2006
‐2007
‐2008
‐2010
‐
Real Estate Price
1 8
2.0Residential: Case-Shiller
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.0
1.2
v r p b c y t r g v r p b c y t r
Commercial: MIT
2001
‐Jan
2001
‐Jun
001 ‐N
ov2002
‐Ap
r2002
‐Sep
2003
‐Feb
2003
‐Jul
003 ‐D
ec004 ‐M
ay2004
‐Oct
005 ‐M
ar005 ‐A
ug2006
‐Jan
2006
‐Jun
006 ‐N
ov2007
‐Ap
r2007
‐Sep
2008
‐Feb
2008
‐Jul
008 ‐D
ec009 ‐M
ay2009
‐Oct
010 ‐M
ar
2 2 20 2 2 2 2 20 2 20 20 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 20 2 20
Commercial Mortgage Backed Security Issuance
40,000
45,000
50,000 Monthly CMBS Issuance ($ Mil)
25,000
30,000
35,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
‐
5,000
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S06 07 08 09 10
Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert
400 Origination Volume Index (2001 Qtr Avg=100)
300
350
150
200
250
50
100
150
0
50
2.Q1
2.Q2
2.Q3
2.Q4
3.Q1
3.Q2
3.Q3
3.Q4
4.Q1
4.Q2
4.Q3
4.Q4
5.Q1
5.Q2
5.Q3
5.Q4
6.Q1
6.Q2
6.Q3
6.Q4
7.Q1
7.Q2
7.Q3
7.Q4
8.Q1
8.Q2
8.Q3
8.Q4
9.Q1
9.Q2
9.Q3
9.Q4
0.Q1
0.Q2
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
$140U.S. Sales Volume: Properties valued over $2.5 million
$100
$120
$140
Billion
s
Apartment Industrial Office Retail
$60
$80
$100
2010.Q3: UP 115% Y‐o‐Y
$20
$40
$60
$0
$20
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Baseline OutlookBaseline Outlook•• Moderate GDP Expansion 2 to 2.5% in the next 2 Moderate GDP Expansion 2 to 2.5% in the next 2 years (historical average is 3%)years (historical average is 3%)
•• 1.5 million annual job additions in the next 2 1.5 million annual job additions in the next 2 yearsyearsyears years
•• Unemployment rate of 9% in 2011 … and normal Unemployment rate of 9% in 2011 … and normal 6% in 20156% in 2015
Baseline Outlook Cont.Baseline Outlook Cont.•• Mortgage Rates rising to 5.0% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2012 Mortgage Rates rising to 5.0% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2012
•• People fussing about home value could miss out on low ratesPeople fussing about home value could miss out on low rates
•• Home values Home values –– no meaningful change in the national price in the no meaningful change in the national price in the next 2 yearsnext 2 years
•• Home sales to be choppy but overall improving in line with job Home sales to be choppy but overall improving in line with job growth … 5.2 million in 2011 (up from 4.8 m in 2010, but same as in growth … 5.2 million in 2011 (up from 4.8 m in 2010, but same as in 2000)2000)2000)2000)•• Affordability conditions are too compellingAffordability conditions are too compelling
•• There maybe a pentThere maybe a pent‐‐up demand 30 million additional people from 2000 butup demand 30 million additional people from 2000 but•• There maybe a pentThere maybe a pent‐‐up demand. 30 million additional people from 2000 but up demand. 30 million additional people from 2000 but same home sales as in 2000.same home sales as in 2000.
Baseline Outlook Cont.Baseline Outlook Cont.•• Commercial lending to steadily improve … because of Commercial lending to steadily improve … because of record high bank profitsrecord high bank profits
•• Net absorption steadily improve … because of Net absorption steadily improve … because of recovering job marketrecovering job marketg jg j
•• Rents stabilize (but no meaningful increase) … Rents stabilize (but no meaningful increase) … because of very low newly built inventorybecause of very low newly built inventorybecause of very low newly built inventorybecause of very low newly built inventory
•• Cap rate falls … price floor established and because of Cap rate falls … price floor established and because of i d i t fid (t t fi d i t fid (t t fimproved investor confidence (to move money out of improved investor confidence (to move money out of low yielding Treasuries)low yielding Treasuries)
Alternative PossibilityAlternative Possibility•• High inflation … people desire tangible investment like real estate, but High inflation … people desire tangible investment like real estate, but
interest rate will be higherinterest rate will be higher•• Deflation … people hold back for better price … holds back economyDeflation … people hold back for better price … holds back economy•• Budget deficit tipping point … higher interest rate and sharp cut back in Budget deficit tipping point … higher interest rate and sharp cut back in
standard of livingstandard of livingstandard of livingstandard of living
•• Sharp 4% to 5% GDP growth … release of pentSharp 4% to 5% GDP growth … release of pent‐‐up housing demand (30up housing demand (30Sharp 4% to 5% GDP growth … release of pentSharp 4% to 5% GDP growth … release of pent up housing demand (30 up housing demand (30 million more people today versus 2000 when home sales were similar) million more people today versus 2000 when home sales were similar) … surprisingly higher home sales and home prices… surprisingly higher home sales and home prices
Virtuous or Vicious Cycle?• Home values stabilizing scenario
– Foreclosures steadily fall– Strategic default lessens and underwater homeowners become
hopeful FHA and Fannie/Freddie finances improve (will need less– FHA and Fannie/Freddie finances improve (will need less taxpayer funds)
– Consumer spending opens upConsumer spending opens up– Home value stabilize further or even begin to rise …– Self‐sustaining normal growth rates in sales and pricesg g p
• Home values fall meaningfully … ugly scenario