dr. justin lenzo demonstratives · case 1: 18- -00508-rc document260- 1 filed 12/01/19 page 3 of 34...

Case 1: 18- - 00508-RC Document260 -1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of 34

Dr. Justin Lenzo

Demonstratives

Case 1: 18- - 00508-RC Document -1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of 34Pls ' Demo 007

Updated Table 1: Counts and Percentages ofDetained and TotalAge-Outs withEvidence ofPotential Risk Factors 17 , 2018 - May 24 , 2019

Detained Age- Outs AllAge- Outs

EvidenceIndicated in AORFs

ShareofDetained

Age- Outs % )

100. 0 %

Count

285

254

Count

1,005

Share of All Age

Outs % )

100. 0 %TotalAge-Outs

89. 1 % 9431. No Evidence IndicatingDanger to Community

2. Additionally,NoEvidence IndicatingDanger to Self

3 . Additionally, Availability ofPotentialSponsor

93. 8 %

92. 4 %248 87. 0 % 929

231 81. 1 % 911 90 . 6 %

4 . Additionally, No EvidenceIndicatingRisk ofFlight

ThatWould Not Be Addressed by a Sponsor229 80. 4 % 908 90. 3 %

Source: Updated Expert Report and Exhibits of J. Lenzo

Case 1: 18 - -00508-RC Document 260- 1 Filed 12/01/19 of 34Pls. ' Demo 008

Updated Table 2:Available Potential Sponsors for Detained Age- Outs

CountofDetained AgeOuts with NoEvidence ofDangerto

Communityor Self

Share ofDetained

Age-Outs with

No Evidenceof

Danger to

Community orSelfEvidence Indicated byData Source

AllDetained Age Outs

of

DetainedAgeOuts

285

Share ofDetained

Age-Outs % )

100 . 0 % 248 100. 0 %

Sponsor Listed 153 130 52. 4 %53. 7 %

94.0 %Sponsor Listed orGroup Sponsor Available 268 231 93. 1%

Source : Updated Expert Report and Exhibits of J. Lenzo

Case 1: 18- - 00508-RC Document -1 Filed 12/01/ 19 Page4 of 34Pls. ' Demo 009

Updated Supplemental Table 1:Detained Age-Outs Who Were Subsequently Released, by Type ofReleaseJanuary 1, 2018 -May 24 , 2019

Release Status Age-Outs Percentage

61. 9 %Bonded Out 466

Orderof recognizance 262 34. 8 %

Paroled 19 2 . 5 %

Order of supervision 0 . 8 %

Source: RFP # 18 Data and Interrogatory # 6 Data .

Note: Chart from ExpertReportwas updatedto reflect

thatbeing “Removed" is differentthan being Released

Case 1: 18- - 00508-RC Document -1 Filed 12/01/ 19 Page5 of 34Pls. ' Demo010

Updated Supplemental Table 2:Detention Durations Among Detained Age-Outs January 1, 2018 -May , 2019

Length -of- Stay Count Percentage

Detained 1+ days 1,342 88. 3 %

Detained 7 + days 1,281 84. 3%

77.3 %Detained 14 + days 1, 174

Detained 30 + days 977 64. 3 %

Detained60+ days 597 39. 3 %


Source : Updated Expert Report and Exhibits of J.Lenzo

Case 1: 18- - 00508-RC Document -1 Filed 12/01/ 19 Page6 of 34Pls. ' Demo011

Updated Supplemental Table 3: Detention Durations Among Detained Age- OutsWho Were Subsequently Released January 1, 2018 - May 24 , 2019

Length -of- Stay Count Percentage

Detained 1+ days 583 80. 1 %

Detained 7 + days 543 74 . 6 %



Detained60+ days 186 25 . 5 %


Source : Updated Expert Report and Exhibits of J.Lenzo

Case 1: 18- - 00508-RC Document -1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of 34Pls. ' Demo 012

Updated Exhibit 4 :

Share of UACs That Have Been Detained , by AOR andMonth 2016 - July 2019 ( Page 1of 2)

AOR

Shareof UACsDetained

Date of Age Out (MayDiffer from Date of Detention)

Apr- 16 May- 16 Jun - 16 Jul- 16 Aug 16 Sep- 16 Oct- 16 Nov- 16 Dec- 16 Jan- 17 Feb- 17 Mar- 17 Apr-17 May- 17 Jun - 17 Jul- 17 Aug 17 Sep- 170 % 17

0 %

0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

0%0 %

0 % %

100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100 % 100% 67%100 %

0 %

100 %

0 %100 % 100 % 100% 67% 100 % 100 %100 %

0 %

0 0% 0 %

0%

0 %

0 %

96 %

80 %

71%

31%

63 %

14 %

0 %

76 %

93%

0 %71%

5 %0 %

100 %

0 %

78%

48 %

%85 %

83 %

0 %

2 %

39 %

50 %100 %

9 %

78 %

100%

31%

80 %93%

25 %

85 %

0 %

38 %

87%

57%

0 %

83%

100 %32 %

86 %0 %

100 %44 %

100 %

67%

100 %

100 %50 %

80 %33 %

67%

36%

100 %

77 %

0 %

100 %

AtlantaBaltimore

BostonBuffalo

ChicagoDallasDenver

DetroitEl Paso

HarlingenHoustonLos AngelesMiamiNew Orleans

New YorkNewark

PhiladelphiaPhoenixSan Antonio

San DiegoSan FranciscoSeattle

WashingtonDCTotal

100 %58%

88 %

0 %

100 %84 %

100 %

50 %0 % 14% 0 %

100% % 50 % 100%

0 % 0 %

100%

0 %

100 %

89 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

33 % 100 % 60 % 50 % 50 % 0 % 100% 100% 100 % 100 % 67 % 88 %

0 %

0 % 0 %

90 % 67% 37 % 50 % 50 %75 %

%%

0 %50 %

0 %

27%

0 %

%

%0 %

0 %46 %

0 %0 %

80 %

0 % 0 % % 15 %

0 %82%

100 %

100%33%33%

64%

0 % 0 %75 % 60% 86 %

% 0 %100% 50% 33%

100% 100% 67%100 % 57% 33%

25 % % 100 %

47% 52% 62%

25 %

0 %

100 %

50%50%

100 %24

50 %67 %

50 %40%50 %

0%

0 %

75%50 %

0 %

27%

100%

50 %33%25 %

58 %

50 %

50 %

55%

33 %

63%

45 %0 %0 %

100 %

50 %

67 %

60 %

67%

45%

100%25 %33%

38 %

67%

51%

50 %

0 %

100 %

50%

100 %0 %0 %

38%

67 %20 %

57%

17 %

60 %

75%

49%

0 %

59%

Source: Updated ExpertReportand Exhibits of J . Lenzo

Case 1: 18-cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/19 of 34Pls.' Demo012A

Updated Exhibit 4A: Share ofUACs That Have Been Detained ,

by AOR and Month April 2016 - July 2019

Share ofUACsDetained

DateofAge Out (MayDifferfrom DateofDetention)

Oct- 16 Nov- 16 Dec- 16 Jan-17 Feb- 17 Mar-17 Apr- 17 May-17 Jun-17AOR Apr-16 May-16 Jun- 16 Jul Aug 16 Sep- 16 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep- 17 Oct-17 Nov -17 Dec-17

Atlanta

Baltimore 100 %

0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %Boston

Buffalo

100 % 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 71% 100 % 100% 67% 100 % 67 % 100% 100% 100 67 % 100 % 100% 100% 100% 86 % 100 %ChicagoDallasDenver

Detroit

ElPaso

HarlingenHouston

0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %0 %

0 %

0 %

100 %0 % 0 % 0 %

0 %0 %

88 %

8 % 15 % 100% 100% 100%11%

88 %

100%0 %

59 %

0 %2 %

100 %

63%96 % 75 % 79 % 9 % 3 % 80 % 72 %89 %

93 %

75 % 55 %

100%78%

86 %

80 %

100 %

100 %

91%

100 %

50 %

50 %

92 %

100 %100% 100% 100% 95 % 95 %

89%

14 %

86 %

0 %

100 %

83%

94 %

86 %

0 %

83% 100% 80 % 100% 100%

33 % 0 %

94 %

50 %

100 %

100 %

100 %17% 0%

96 %

38 %

86 %

0 % 33% 50 %Los Angeles

Miami

50% 67 %100 %

100 %0 % 100% 100% 100 % 100% 50 % 100 % % 100 %

100% 100% 100 % 100% 75% 100% 100 % 100% 0 % 100 % 100% 100% 100% 67 % 100 % 100 % 89% 100 %100%

0 % 0% 0 % 0 % % 0 % 0 %

100%

0 %

88 %

17 %

90 % 73% 73% 56 % 50 %

New Orleans

New YorkNewark


San DiegoSan Francisco

Seattle

Washington DC

82%

17 %

%81%

0 %

100 %17 %

8 %

0 %

44 %

7 %0%0 %

50 %0 %

100 %

41%

22 %

83%

14 %

33 %

80 %

7 %

73%

0 %0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

69%

0 %

33%

80 %

100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100 % 75 % 83% 100 % 50 %

100% 75 %

86 %

0 %

67 %67 %

50 %

50%

54%

50% 67% 50% 100% 100% 50% 100% 100%67%

0 %

67%

100%

0 %

100 %67 %

25 %

63 %

0 %

100 %57%

29%

62%

100% 50% 0 %

100 %

100 %0 %

33%

56 %

0 67%33%

50%

100% 0 %100 %

50 %

67%

67% %

38%

17 %

36 %50%

33%

0 %

75%

65 %

67%

14 %

63%

29 %

41%

67 %

%

100 %

51%

%

51%

50%

50%

67%

%

59 %

50 %

66 % 69%

0 %

61%

Source: UpdatedExhibit4A of J. Lenzo

Case 1: 18- - 00508-RC Document -1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of 34Pls. ' Demo013

Updated Exhibit 4 :

Share of UACs That Have Been Detained, by AOR and Month 2016 - July 2019(Page 2of2 )

AOR

ShareofUACsDetained

Date of Age Out (MayDiffer from Date of Detention

Oct-17 Nov- 17 Dec- 17 Jan -18 Feb- 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May- 18 Jun- 18 Jul Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct-18 Nov- 18 Dec- 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar-19 Apr- 19 May- 19 Jun- 19 Jul- 190 % 0 %

100% % 0 % 0 % 100 % 100 % 0 % 0 % 25 % 0 % 0 %

50 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

0 %

Total

0 %

22 %

5 %0%

0 % 0 %

100 % 56 % 100 % 80 % 100% 100% 100 % 100% 75 % 100% 80% 40 % 17% 33% 8 25% 50% % 64 %

0 % 0 %

100% 100 % 90 % 100 %

0 %

100 %82%

88 %

67 %

% 0 % 2 % 0 % 0 %

100%75 %

50 %

50 %

0 %

AtlantaBaltimoreBoston

Buffalo

Chicago

DallasDenver

DetroitElPasoHarlingenHouston

Los AngelesMiamiNew Orleans

New YorkNewark

PhiladelphiaPhoenix

San AntonioSan Diego

San FranciscoSeattle

Washington DCTotal

0 %

100 %50 %

100 %

100 %67 %

0 %

100 %

100 %

100 %95 %

100 %

67 %100 %

75 %93%

100 %

100 %100 %

0 %

100%

100%84%100%

100%

100%

100 %84 %

100 %

0 %

100 %

100 %97 %

100 %

50 %

100 %

100 %98 %

100 %

100 %100 %

100%84 %

94 %

100 %

100 %

100 %86 %

100 %

60 %

100 %

100 %

100%85 %

100 %

100 %

100 %

0 %

75 %1 %

100%

86 %79%

80 %

1%

95 %

100 %

100 %

67 %

2 %

90 %

50 %

100 %

63%

0 %

94%

100%

100% 100 %100%

33%

100 %

100%

0 %

92 %

75 %

100 %

100 %

60%

100 %

100 %

67%

100 %

0 %

13 %56 %

46 %

80 %52 %

92 %

0 %

84%

25 %

95 % 100 % 92 %

100 % 100% 100% 100% 100 % 100 % 100% 67% 80% 50 % 88% 75 %

0 %

100%

0 %0 %

77%

0 % % 0 %50 %

55%

100 %0 %

0 %

54%

0 %

100 %

62%

0 %

% 5 %0 %

78 %

0 %

42 %

0%100%

0 %100%88% 71%

| % 0%

80 %100 %

0%67%

0 %

50 %

100%100 %

50%

65 %

6 % 5 %%

%%

88 %

0 %

20%

67%

0 %

%

54%

33%64 %

9 %

33%100%67 %

33%53%

71%

100 %

0 %

80 %

8 %25 %

100 %50 %

100 %

78 %

0 %

%

75 %

0 %

0 %

75%

100 %

75 %

74 %

67% 100 %

0 %

71%

0 %17 %

100%0 %

83%

71%

100 %0 %

%91%6 %

100 %

60%0 %

100 %

36 %

100 %

75 %

0 %0%

71%8 %

100 %

%100%

50 %

32%

0 %

84 %

8 %

33 %

50 %

50 %

40%

76 %

50%

100%100 %78%69%

100%67 %

20 %68 %

0 %63%

0 %20 %

100 %50%3371%

67%

25 % 0 %

50%

50%50 %

80 %

80 %

71%

0 %

80%

%100 %

100%

30 %

0 %100 %

50%33 %100 %

29%

100%0 %

100%

100%0 %20 %

35 %

66 %

3 %

46 %

69%

49%

45 %

52 %

80%74%

100 %38 %

100 %

50 %

31%

20 %27 % 34 % 61%

Source: Updated ExpertReportand Exhibits of J . Lenzo

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of 34Pls.' Demo013A

Updated Exhibit 4A : Share ofUACs That Have Been Detained ,

by AOR and Month April 2016 - July 2019

Share ofUACs Detained

Date of AgeOut(May Differ from Date ofDetention)

Aug 18 Sep- 18 Oct- 18 Nov-18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar- 19AOR Jan- 18 Feb- 18 Mar- 18 Apr-18 May- 18 Jun 18 Jul Apr- 19 May 19 Jun- 19 Jul 19 Total

Atlanta

Baltimore 0 % % 100%0%25 %0 % 0% 19 %%

Boston 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

%0 %

100%80% 100 % 100 % 75 % 75 % 100% 83 % 40 % 17% 25 % % % 0 % 25 % 50 % 0 % 63 %

0 % 0 %

0 % 100% 0 %

75 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 67% 100% 100 % 90 % 100%100%

97 %

8 %59 %

41%100% 93% 1 % 0 % 0 %

100 %

97 %

88 %

50 %

100 %

100 %

79 %

100 %

50 %

100 %

100%

82%

95%

100 %

96 %

100 %

100 %

0 %

804 %

100%

86 %

86 %

100%

0 %

90 %

1%

95 %

100 %

100 %

86 %

100 %

67%

100 %

1 %

100 %

100 %

0 %

100 %

78 %

86 %

0 %

100%

94%

100%

2 %

92 %

75 %

100%

63%

0 %

94%

75 %

100 %

0 %

100 %

33 %

100% 100 % 96 %95 %

50 %100 % 60 % 60% 67 % 54 %100 %

100 %100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 92 % 96 %

Buffalo

ChicagoDallasDenver

Detroit

ElPasoHarlingen

Houston

Los Angeles

Miami

New Orleans

New YorkNewark


San DiegoSan Francisco

Seattle

Washington DC

89% 100 % 75 % 100 % 86 % 100% 100% 67% 80% 100% 75 % 88 % 100% 75 %100%0 %

75% 90 %

17%0 % 0 %

100 %

0 %

0 %

97 %

50 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 5 %0 %

95 %

100 %

96 %

0 %

92%

8 %

0 %

100%

0 %

100 %

6 %

0 %

94 %

0 %

91%

0 %

93 %

0 %

86 %

0 %

100 %

0 %

100 %91%91%

5 %

71% 84 %

0 %

100 %

0 %

92%

0 %0 % 0 % 0 %

88 %

5 %

100 %

4 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 6 % 0 % 3 %

100 % 100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100 %

0 %

100 %50 %

100 %80%

0 %

96 %

0 %

83 %

100%

0 %

80 %

71%

100%

100%

100 %

50 %

100 %

100 %100% 67% 50 % 60 %

100 %100 %

100 %

89%

75 %

100 %

67 %

20 %

71%

100 %57 %

50 %

75 %

83 %

60 %

100 %

83%

100%100 %

22 %

33%

73%

50 %

75 %

80 %

82 %

0 %

100 %100 %

100 %

50%

32%

80 %

73 %

100 %

80 %

38 %

100%

%

100 %

100%

33%

67%

31%

89 %74 %

48 %

49%

55 %

33 %

100%

30%

100 %

0 %

20 %

35 %

0 %

100%

36 % 34 % 61%

Source : Updated Exhibit 4A of J. Lenzo

Case 1: 18 - - -RC Document 260 - 1 Filed 12/ 01/19 of 34Pls. ' Demo014

Updated Exhibit 5 :

Detention Rates by Field Office October 17, 2018 to May 24, 2019

TotalAgeOuts

405

Detained

Age-OutsFieldOffice

PercentageDetained

. 05 %2 .6 %

Detention Percentage

Statistically Higher thanSNA ?

No

No

Harlingen

SanAntonio 117

Houston 101 98 Yes

72 34 YesPhoenix

Chicago

Miami

65

97 .0 %

47.2 %13.8 %

96 .2 %80 .0 %

Yes

52 50 Yes

ElPaso 35 28 Yes

Philadelphia 32 No

New York 31 24

0 .0 %

77. 4 %

72. 4 %

Yes

LosAngeles 29 21 Yes

YesWashington, DC 17 29. 4 %

San Francisco Yes16

10Baltimore

25 . 0 %

0.0 %

62.5 %

No

Seattle Yes

SanDiego 33. 3 % Yes

Boston No

NoDetroit

Newark

Total

0 .0 %

0 . 0 %

0 .0 %

28 .4 %

No

1005 285

Source: UpdatedExpertReportand Exhibits of J. Lenzo

Case 1: 18 - - -RC Document 260 - 1 Filed 12/01/19 of 34Pls. ' Demo 015

Updated Exhibit 6 :

Detention Rates by Field Office Among Age-Outs with No Evidence of Risk Factors

October 17 , 2018 to May 24 , 2019

Detained

Age-Outs

PercentageDetainedField Office

Detention Percentage

Statistically HigherthanSNA ?

No

No

TotalAgeOuts398106100

Harlingen 0 . 5 %

SanAntonio

Houston 98 Yes

70 33 YesPhoenix

Chicago

Miami

59 Yes

47 46 Yes

ElPaso 33 27 Yes

Philadelphia 31 No

New York 17 12 Yes

0. 0 %98.0 %

47.1%10. 2 %

97. 9 %

81.8 %0 .0 %

70.6 %33.3 %

0 .0 %0. %

0. 0 %33. 3 %

20 .0 %

0. 0 %0 . 0 %

LosAngeles Yes

Washington, DC No

San Francisco No

Baltimore No

Seattle No

San Diego No

Boston No

Detroit No

0.0 %Newark

Total 908 229

No

25 .2 %

Source: UpdatedExpert Reportand Exhibits of J. Lenzo

10

Case 1: 18 - -00508 -RC Document 260 - 1 Filed 12 /01/ 19 of 34Pls. ' Demo 016

Updated Exhibit 7 : Regression Results

Results

ApOLS

AnyRisk Factor0. 0 .09 1.031***

( 0 .222)0 509 2.

Houston 3.711***0.169

0.

(0 . 377)- -

0.

0 .

(0.017) (0 (0 .204)Danger to -0.002 0 . 091

(0 049) ( )

Danger to Self -0 043 0 279

( 0.050) (0 )No

NotAddressed Sponsor

(0 047) ( 370)

Factor(0 031)

Chicago 0 052 0 .025 0 .410

( 0.041) (0 344

DC 0 105 0 .993

(0 .067 (0 . (0. 514

ElPaso 0 .719 * 2 * *

(0.050 (0. 052) (0. )

4.012(0. (0. 039 ) (0 .413)

( 0.032 ) (0 .033) ( 365) 0. 334

Los 1( 0.059) (0. 057) (0 .435 )

(0 . (0 .046 (0 .473)

New York 0. 2352( 0. ) (0. 054) ( 392)

(0 .040) (0 .042) (0 320)

San Francisco 0.052 0. 0001 -0. 366

( 0.069 (0 .070) (0 . )

San- 0. 039 -0.559

(0.037 (0. (0 .406 370)Constant - 0.012 0 . 2

( 0.032) (0 ) (0. 336 )

F Significance 220. 203LRT Statistic for AOR Jount Test

1, 1, ,005

0 .733 0

Adjusted 0.729 0 . 704

Log -172376.410

01: Out 17, to May 24, 2019

0. 3.936 **

Miami 3.574***750

(0 .431)

ElPaso 2.585** *

(0 . 356 )

Source: Updated Expert Report and Exhibits of J. Lenzo

11

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of 34Pls. ' Demo017

Updated Exhibit 7 : Regression Results

Results

ApOLS

AnyRisk Factor0. 0 .09 1.031***

( 0 .222)0 509 2.

Los Angeles 1.604***0.169

0.

(0. 373)- -

0.

0 .

(0.017) (0 (0 .204)Danger to -0.002 0 . 091

(0 049) ( )

Danger to Self -0 043 0 279

( 0.050) (0 )No

NotAddressed Sponsor

(0 047) ( 370)

Factor(0 031)

Chicago 0 052 0 .025 0 .410

( 0.041) (0 344

DC 0 105 0 .993

(0 .067 (0 . (0. 514

ElPaso 0 .719 * 2 * *

(0.050 (0. 052) (0. )

4.012(0. (0. 039 ) (0 .413)

( 0.032 ) (0 .033) ( 365) (0. 334)

Los 1( 0.059) (0. 057) (0 .435 )

(0 . (0 .046 (0 .473)

New York 0. 2352( 0. ) (0. 054) ( 392)

(0 .040) (0 .042) (0 320)

San Francisco 0.052 0. 0001 -0. 366

( 0.069 (0 .070) (0 . )

San- 0. 039 - . 559

(0.037 (0. (0 .406 0 370)Constant - 0.012 0 . 2

( 0.032) (0 ) (0. 336 )

F Significance 220. 203LRT Statistic for AOR Jount Test

1, 1, 1 .

0 .733 0

Adjusted 0.729 0 . 704

Log -172376 .410

Out Renew October17, 2015toMay 24, 2019

0. 3.936 **

New York 1.915* **750

(0. 360)

Phoenix 1.500 **

(0.284 )

Source: Updated ExpertReport and Exhibits of J.Lenzo

12

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of 34Pls. ' Demo 018

Updated Exhibit 8 : EffectsAnalysis

ProbitModelwith Combination 1 of the Risk Factors

Characteristic of Age- OutEstimated Effecton Probability of

Being Detained

95 % Confidence Intervalfor

Effecton ProbabilityofBeing

Detained

-4 . 9 % - 7 . 9 %

-8 . 2 % - 3 . 9 %

0 . 9 %

- 2 .6 %

Evidence of Danger to the Community

Evidenceof Danger to Self

Evidence ofLack ofSponsor or Risk of Flight

Unaddressed by Release to Sponsor

Evidence ofAll the Above Factors

32. 2 % 19. 1 % - 46 .8 %

28. 0 % 16. 8 % - 41. 6 %

Aged -Out of El Paso AOR

Aged -Out of Houston AOR

Aged -Out of LosAngeles AORAged -Out ofMiamiAOR

Aged-Out ofNew York City AOR

Aged -Out of Phoenix AOR

80. 2 %

94. 2 %

34.6 %93 .8 %

66 . 2 %

46 . 1%

67. 9 % - 87. 6 %

88.5 % - 96 .6 %17. 6 % - 54.6 %86 . 2 % - 96 . 7 %

49. 9 % - 78 .6 %

36. 7 % -54 8 %

Source: Updated ExpertReportand Exhibitsof J. Lenzo

13

Case 1: 18 - -00508 -RC Document 260 - 1 Filed 12 /01/ 19 of 34Pls. ' Demo019

Updated Exhibit 8 : EffectsAnalysis

ProbitModelwith Combination 2 of theRisk Factors

Characteristic of Age- OutEstimatedEffectonProbabilityof

Being Detained

95% Confidence Intervalfor

Effecton ProbabilityofBeing

Detained

8 . 1% - 18. %EvidenceofAny Risk Factor 12. 7 %

Aged- Outof El Paso AOR

Aged -Outof Houston AOR

Aged-Out of LosAngeles AOR

Aged-Out ofMiamiAOR

Aged -Out ofNew York City AOR

Aged -Out of Phoenix AOR

80 .6 %

95 . 2 %

51.5 %

94 . 3 %

62.0 %

47. 8 %

68.8 % - .

90. 0 % - 97 4 %

35. 1% - 68. 7 %87.6 % - . 1

45. 3 % - 75. 6 %

38 . 3% - 56 . 3%

Source: Updated ExpertReport and Exhibits of J. Lenzo

14

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of34Pls. ' Demo020

Comparison of In-Absentia Rates

Non -UAC [ 1] UAC [ 1 Age-Outs, NeverDetained[ 2

Age- Outs , Detained ButSubsequently

Released [ 2 ]

In-Absentia

Removal

Orders

Percent InAbsentia

32 %

In- AbsentiaRemovalOrders

2 ,112

Year

In-AbsentiaRemoval Percent

Orders Absentia

Percent InAbsentiaTotal Total Total Total

2014 73, 165

In-AbsentiaRemovalOrders

23,678

31,000

27,800

35 ,115

Percent InAbsentia

63 %

53%2015

2016 43%

76 ,881

75,277

82 ,711

106 ,763

118,685

2017

3 ,331

13 ,554

14,785

13,331

12,545

,116

40 %

37%

42 %

37 %

44 %

7 ,1986,408

6 ,799

6 ,705

5,498

2018

51%

53%

60%

39,353

52 041

481

414

26

102019

5 % 447 46 10 %

2Source :[1] Executive Office for Immigration Review .[2 ] RFP 18 , RFP 21, IROG 6 , In-Absentia Data .

3 3

15


Monthly Detention Rate, April2016 -May 2019: San Antonio

100 %

90 %

80

70 %

60 %

50 %

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %15 %

11 %9

8 % 8 %8 % 8 %10 % 6% 5 % 6 %

0 % 0 % 0 % % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

0 %

Apr. Jun.

Sept.16

Aug.16

Mar17

Apr.17

Jun.

Sept.17

Aug.17

Jan.18

Mar.18

Jun.May.18

Apr.18

Aug.18

Oct.18

Jan.19

Mar.19

Apr.19

Jul.16Oct

.16May

.Nov

.16Jul.17

OctMay.

Jul.18Feb.

Sept.18

Feb May.

Dec.16

Jan. Feb.

Nov.17

Dec.17

Nov.18

Dec.

Ex. 4 at 17 Sources: Age Out Review FormsandMonthlyAge OutReports; Responsesto RFP 18 and21.

16

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of34Pls . ' Demo 021A

Monthly Detention Rate, April2016 -May 2019: San Antonio

100 %

90 %

80 %

70 %

60 %

50 %

40 %

30 %

22 %

20 % 17 % 17 %

14 %

8 %%

8 %7 %6 %5 %

6 %4 % 5 %

% 0 % 0 %0% 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0% 0 % 0 % 0 %0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

Apr-16

Jul-16Feb-

17Jul-

17Aug

-17Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Mar-19

May-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

May-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Apr-19

May-19

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Sources: Responses to 21.

16A


Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 - May 2019: Harlingen

100 % 96 % 97 % 98%95%

93%

90 % 87 %85 % 86 % 85 %

84 % 84% 84 %82%

78 %80 %

78% 80%76 %

77 %

71%

70 % 67 %

58 %60 %

% 50 %

50 %

44 %

40 %

320

30 %

20 %

10%

1% 1% 2 % 0% 0% % 2% 0 %0 %

Apr.16

Jun Jul.16Sept

.16Aug

.16Apr

17Mar

17Jun Sept

.17Aug

.17Jan

.18MayApr. Sept

.18Aug.18

Jan.19

Apr.

MayMay JulMay Oct.17

Feb.18

Mar.18

Nov.17

Dec.17

Jul.Jun Oct.18

Nov.18

Dec.18

Mar.19

FebOct.16

Nov.16

Dec.16

Jan.17

Feb.


17

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/0119 of34Pls. ' Demo 022A

Monthly Detention Rate, April2016 -May 2019: Harlingen

100%

100% 97 %96 % 96 % 97%

94 %92 % 93%

91%89% 88 %

90 %88 %

80% 80%78 % 79%

80 %%

70 %

59 %

60 %55%

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %14 %

9 %

10 %

% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%

Apr-16

May-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18Aug

-18Sep

-18Feb-

19Mar

-19Apr-

19Jun-

16Jul-

16Mar-

17May

-17Jun-

17Aug

-17Sep-

17Dec-

17May

-18Oct-

18Nov-

18Dec

-18Jan-

19May

-19Aug-16

Sep-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16


17A

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of34Pls. ' Demo 023

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 - May 2019: Chicago

100 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

90 % 86 %

80 % 80 %

8075 %

71%

70 % 67% 67%

60 % 56 %

50 %

50 %

40%

40 %

33 %

30 %25 %

20 % 17 %

8 %10%

0%0 %

Apr.16

Jun Jul.16Sept

.16Aug

.16Apr

17Mar

17Jun Sept

.17Aug

.17Jan.

18May

.18Apr.18

Sept.18

Aug.18

Feb.

Jan.19

Mar.19

Apr.

May JulMay Oct.17

Feb.18Mar

.18May

.Nov

.17Dec

.17Jul.JunOct

.16Nov

.16Dec

.16 .17Feb.

17Oct.

18Nov

.18Dec

.


18

Case 1: 18- -00508 -RC Document 260 - 1 Filed 12 /01/ 19 of 34Pls .' Demo 023A

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 - May 2019: Chicago

100 % 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100%

100%

90 %

83 %

80 %

80 %76 % 75 %

70 % 67%

60 %

50 %

50 %

%

40 %

30 %25 % 25 %

20 %

8 %10 %

Apr-16

May-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18Aug

-18Sep-

18Mar

-19Apr-

19Jun-

16Jul-

16Mar-

17May

-17Jun-

17Aug

-17Sep-

17Dec-

17May

-18Oct-

18Nov-

18Dec

-18Jan-

19Feb-

19May

-19


Aug-16

Sep-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

18A


Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 - May 2019: Houston

100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %0 % 100 % 100 % 100 %100 %

%95 %

93% 93 %94 % 940

92 %90 %

88 %90 %

88%86 %

83

80 % 80 %

80 %

70 %

60 % 57

50 %48 %

50 %

39 %

40 % 36 %

31%

30 %

20 %

14 %

10 %5 %

0 %

0 %

Apr.16

Jun Sept.16

Aug.16

Apr17

Mar17

Jul.Jun.

Sept.17

Aug. Jan.18

MayApr. Sept.18

Aug.18

Mar.19

Apr.19

May Jul May.17

Oct.17

Feb.18Mar

.18MayNov

.17Dec

.17Jul.Jun


Oct.16

Nov.16

Dec.16

Jan.17

Feb.

Oct.18

Nov.18

Dec.18

Jan.19

Feb.19

19

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/0119 of 34Pls .' Demo 024A

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 - May 2019: Houston

100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100 % 100%100% 100%100% 100% 100% 100%

100%95 % 95 % 96 % 95 %

94 %93 %

95 %94% 95 % 94%

88 %90 %

86% 86 %

80 %

70 %

60 %

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

%

Apr-16

May-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18Aug

-18Sep-

18Mar-

19Apr-

19Jun-

16Sep

-16Mar-

17May

-17Jun-

17Aug

-17Sep-

17Dec-

17May

-18Oct-

18Nov-

18Dec

-18May

-19Jan-

19Feb-

19

Sources: Responsesto RFP 21.

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

19A


Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 - May 2019: Miami

100% 100 %100% 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100 % % 100 % 100% 100% 100%100 %

100% 100% 100% 100 % 100% 100%95 %

89 %

90 %

85% 83%79 %

80

70 % 67 %

60 %

50 %

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

10%

0 0 %

0 %

Apr.16

Sept.16

Aug.16

Mar.17

Apr17

Jun Aug.17

Jan.18

MayApr. Sept.18

Aug.18

Mar.19

Apr.19

Jul. JulMay Feb.18Mar

.18MayMay

.Jun. Sept

.17Oct

17Nov

.17Dec

.17Jul.Jun


Oct.16

Nov.16

Dec.16

Jan. Feb. Oct.18

Nov.18

Dec.18

Jan.19

Feb.19

20

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/0119 of 34Pls. ' Demo 025A

MonthlyDetention Rate, April 2016 -May 2019: Miami

100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

100 %

90 %

80 %

70 %

60 %

50

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

10 %

* * * *

Apr-16

May-16

Jun-16

Jul-16 Oct- Feb-

17Mar

-17Apr-

17Jun-

17Jul-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Aug17 Apr-18

Jul-18Jun-

18Aug

-18Sep-

18Apr-

19Aug-16

Sep-16

May-17

Dec-17

May-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Sep-17Oct-17 Mar-19

May-19

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Sources: Responses to 21.* age outs reported thismonth

20A


Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 -May 2019 : Paso

100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100%100 %

100%

90 %

80 %

8075 % 75 %

70 % 67 %

63%

60 %

50 %

38 %40 %

31%

30 %

20 %

9 %

10 %

0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 09

0 %

Apr. Jun

.Aug

.16Apr

17Mar

17Jun Sept

.17Aug

.17Jan.

18MayApr. Sept

.18Aug.18

Mar.19

Apr.19

May.16

Jul.16

Nov.16

JulMay Oct.17

Feb.18Mar

.18MaySept

.16Oct

16Dec

.16Jan.

17Feb

.Nov

.17Dec

.17Jul.Jun


Oct.18

Nov.18

Dec.18

Jan.19

Feb.19

21

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/0119 of34Pls .' Demo 026A

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 -May 2019: ElPaso

100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100%

100 %

90 %89

90 %

80 %75 %

70 % 67 %

63%

60 %

50%

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %15 %

11%

10 %

% 0 % % 0 % % % %0 %

Apr16

May-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Jul-17Oct-

17Nov

-17Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18Aug

-18Sep-

18Apr-

19Jun-

16Aug

-16Sep-

16Mar-

17May

-17Aug

-17Sep-

17Dec-

17May

-18Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19

May-19

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Sources: Responses to 21.* age outs reported thismonth

21A

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of 34Pls ' Demo 027

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 - May 2019: New York

100% % 100 % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100 % % 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100 % 100 %100 %

88 %90 %

80%80

70 % 67 % 6

6

60 %

% 50 % 5V

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

10 %

0 %

Apr.16

Jun Jul.16Sept

.16Aug

.16Mar

17Apr

.� Sept

.17Aug

.17Jan.

18MayApr. Sept

.18Aug.18

Mar.19

Apr.19

May JulMay Oct.17

Feb.18Mar

.18MayNov

.17Dec

.17Jul.Jun


Oct.16

Nov.16

Dec.16

Jan Feb. Oct.18

Nov.18

Dec.18

Jan.19

Feb.19

22

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/0119 of34Pls. ' Demo027A

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 - May 2019: New York

100 % 100% 100% 100% 100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100 % 100 % 100 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

100%

90 %

80

80 %%

70 %

60 %

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

10 %

Apr-16

May-16

Aug16

Feb-17

Mar-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18Aug

-18Sep-

18Apr-

19Jun-

16Jul-16

Sep-16

Jun-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Dec-17Apr-17

May-17

May-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19

May-19

Sources: Responsesto RFP 21.

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

* age outs reported thismonth

22A

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of34Pls. ' Demo028

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 -May 2019

100 %

90 %

78 %80 % 76 %

74 % 74

71% %70 %

68% 69%

64 % 65 %63 %

62 %

60% 58%60 % 59 %

60 % 57 %55 %

50 %50 % A

%40 % 36 % 35 %

32 %30% 29%

30 % 27 %

20 %

10%

Apr Jul16

Jun. Sept.16

Aug.16

Mar.17

Apr Jun Sept.17

Aug.17

Jul.Jan.

18MayApr. Sept

.18Aug.18

Mar.19

Apr.19

May.16

May.17

Feb.18Mar.18

MayOct.17

Nov.17

Dec.17

Jul.JunOct16

Nov.16

Dec.16

Jan Feb.

Ex. 4 at 17

Oct.18

Nov.18

Dec.18

Jan.19

Feb.19

23

Case 1: 18- -00508 -RC Document 260 - 1 Filed 12 /01/ 19 of 34Pls .' Demo 028A

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 -May 2019: Total

100 %

90 %

83% 83% 82%78 %

80 %75 %

73 73%71%

70% %69 %

70 % 67 % 67%66 %

65%

63% % 63%

59 %

60 % 56%54%

51% 51

50 %

41% 42 %

38 % 38%40 % 36 % 35 %

33 %32%

31%30%

30 %

20 %

10 %

Apr-16

May-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18Aug

-18Sep-

18Mar-

19Apr-

19Jun-

16Jul-

16Mar-

17May

-17Jun-

17Aug

-17Sep-

17Dec-

17May

-18Oct-

18Nov-

18Dec

-18May

-19Jan-

19Feb-

19


Aug-16

Sep-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

23A

Case 1: 18 -cv-00508-RC Document260- 1 Filed 12/01/ 19 of34Pls . ' Demo064

Monthly Detention Rate, April 2016 -May 2019: Phoenix

100% 100 % 100% 100% 100%

100% 96% 96 % 97 %95%

94 %

91% 91% 92% 93%90 % 91%

90 %88 %

86 % 86 %83 %

82% 81%80 %

80 %

%

69%70 %

60 %

50 % 50 %

50 %

44 %

40 %

30 %

20 % 17

10 %

Apr-16

May-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18Aug

-18Sep-

18Mar-

19Apr-

19Jun-

16Jul-

16Mar

-17May

-17Jun-

17Aug

-17Sep-

17Dec-

17May

-18Oct-

18Nov-

18Dec

-18May

-19Jan-

19Feb-

19


Aug-16

Sep-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

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