dr. jeff seaman united states - pearson · facilitate what is essentially a face-to-face course....
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Dr. Jeff Seaman
Grade Level: Tracking Online Education in the United States
Babson Survey Research Group
[email protected] @weirdlyperfect
#pearsoncite @weirdlyperfect
Babson Survey Research Group The Babson Survey Research Group conducts regional, national, and international research projects, including survey design, sampling methodology, data integrity, statistical analyses and reporting.
• Faculty Use of Social Media (Pearson) • National and Regional Surveys of Online Education (Pearson) • Open Education Resources (Pearson) • Sloan K-12 Online Learning Survey Reports • The A۰P۰L۰U-Sloan National Commission on Online Learning • GlobalOHER - International Survey of Online Education
Online Education Survey 2014 • Target respondent: Chief Academic Officer • Opinion data collected: December 2014 – January 2015 • 2,800+ responses • Represents 78%+ of higher education enrollments
11,511
71,801
113,946
78,039
CUMMULATIVE DOWNLOADS 2014: Grade Level
2013: Grade Change
2012: Changing Course
2011: Going the Distance
Report Reach
N=275,297
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2014: Grade Level
2013 Grade Change
12,540
8,702
INFOGRAPHICS
Definitions • Traditional: No online technology used — content is
delivered in writing or orally. • Web Facilitated: Uses web-based technology to
facilitate what is essentially a face-to-face course. • Blended/Hybrid: Blends online and face-to-face
delivery. Substantial proportion of the content is delivered online, has a reduced number of face-to-face meetings.
• Online: Most or all of the content is delivered online, no face-to-face meetings.
Online is Still “Critical”
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014
ONLINE EDUCATION IS CRITICAL TO THE LONG-TERM STRATEGY OF MY INSTITUTION – 2002 TO 2014
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Change Comes From the For-profits
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014
ONLINE EDUCATION IS CRITICAL TO THE LONG-TERM STRATEGY BY INSTITUTIONAL CONTROL – 2006 TO 2014
Public
Private nonprofit
Private for-profit
IPEDS Data Collection • US Department of Education • It’s about time! • “Distance Education” – although most is online. • Several differences in definitions from the
BSRG. • Second year of data just released
Only the Very Smallest Without Offerings
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Under 1,000 1,000 - 4,999 5,000 - 9,999 10,000 - 19,999 20,000 +
INSTITUTION HAS DISTANCE STUDENTS BY OVERALL ENROLLMENT - 2013
What Kind of Offerings?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Under 1,000 1,000 - 4,999 5,000 - 9,999 10,000 - 19,999 20,000 +
INSTITUTION HAS DISTANCE STUDENTS BY OVERALL ENROLLMENT IPEDS AND BSRG - 2013
BSRG
Who Has Distance/Online? • Major issue is definitional. • BSRG: Any online, of any length, at any time, to any
audience. • IPEDS: Undergrad - “student enrolled in a 4- or 5-year
bachelor's degree program, an associate's degree program, or a vocational or technical program below the baccalaureate.”
• Extremely close for larger (1,500+ students) institutions. • BSRG includes far more smaller institutions (informal
online, non-credit, non-degree, etc.).
Are We Still Growing?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013
GROWTH RATE OF NUMBER OF STUDENTS TAKING AT LEAST ONE ONLINE/DISTANCE COURSE
Where is the Growth?
-75,000
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
Public Private not-for-profit Private for-profit
DISTANCE EDUCATION ENROLLMENT CHANGE 2012 TO 2013
What About Quality?
Inferior
Somewhat inferior
Same
Somewhat superior
Superior
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LEARNING OUTCOMES IN ONLINE EDUCATION COMPARED TO FACE-TO-FACE
Problem: Faculty Acceptance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fall 2002 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2009 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2014
FACULTY AT MY SCHOOL ACCEPT THE VALUE AND LEGITIMACY OF ONLINE EDUCATION
Problem: Retention
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2012 2014
IMPORTANCE OF LOWER RETENTION RATES IN ONLINE COURSES AS A BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF ONLINE EDUCATION
Very Important
Important
Problem: Students Need More Discipline
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2012 2014
IMPORTANCE OF STUDENTS NEEDING MORE DISCIPLINE TO SUCCEED IN AN ONLINE COURSE AS A BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF ONLINE EDUCATION
Very Important
Important
Problem: Faculty Effort
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2012 2014
IMPORTANCE OF ADDITIONAL FACULTY EFFORT REQUIRED TO DELIVER ONLINE COURSES AS A BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF ONLINE EDUCATION
Very Important
Important
Where are the MOOCs?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014
STATUS OF MOOC OFFERINGS: 2012, 2013, AND 2014
Planning a MOOC
Have a MOOC
Are MOOCs Sustainable?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014
MOOCS ARE A SUSTAINABLE METHOD FOR OFFERING COURSES: 2012, 2013 AND 2014
What Will Drive the Future?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Self-directed learning
Improved student retention
Competency-based education
Assessment of learning outcomes
Workforce development/ Gainful employment
Cost / Student indebtedness
FACTORS WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION - 2014
Most important Second most important Third most important
Online Students Take Exams At a Designated Test Facility
4.0%
40.9%
55.1%
ALL EXAMS All Online Courses
Some Online Courses
Not used2.6%
47.0% 50.4%
SELECTED EXAMS
Online Enrollment Caps
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Private for-profit Private not-for-profit Public
ONLINE ENROLLMENT CAPS COMPARED TO THE FACE-TO-FACE COURSES
Lower
Higher
What Outsourced?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Regulatory compliance
Program evaluation
Faculty support/training
Course development/redesign
Student success analytics
Digital content development
Enrollment management/recruitment
Student support services
Technical support services
Marketing
Market research
Learning Management System hosting
CURRENTLY OUTSOURCE ALL OR A PORTION - 2014
Might Outsource
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Program evaluation
Regulatory compliance
Student support services
Course development/redesign
Enrollment management/recruitment
Learning Management System hosting
Student success analytics
Faculty support/training
Technical support services
Digital content development
Marketing
Market research
NOT CURRENTLY OUTSOURCING, WOULD CONSIDER OUTSOURCING
Contact Info
Dr. Jeff Seaman [email protected]
@weirdlyperfect
http://www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/oer.html
#pearsoncite @weirdlyperfect
Additional Results
#pearsoncite @weirdlyperfect
Is There an Implementation Gap?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Private for-profit Private not-for-profit Public
IS ONLINE EDUCATION SIGNIFICANTLY REPRESENTED IN FORMAL STRATEGIC PLAN – 2014
In plan Not in plan
Growth is Uneven
-100,000
-75,000
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
Public, 4-year Private not-for-profit, 4-year
Private for-profit, 4-year
Public, 2-year Private not-for-profit, 2-year
Private for-profit, 2-year
DISTANCE EDUCATION ENROLLMENT CHANGE 2012 TO 2013
Problem(?): Employer Acceptance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2012 2014
IMPORTANCE OF LACK OF ACCEPTANCE OF ONLINE DEGREES BY POTENTIAL EMPLOYERS AS A BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF ONLINE EDUCATION
Very Important
Important
Online enrollment Caps
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Lower Same Higher
ONLINE ENROLLMENT CAPS COMPARED TO FACE-TO-FACE COURSES