dr. james p. gaines membership chief luncheon october … realtors association october 5... · dr....
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Outlook
3
• The economy hasn’t been “Trumped” so far
• Slow growth the “new norm” – 7 years avg. 2.1%; 2016 GDP growth 1.5%; 2017 ~2.2%
• Interest rates will … maybe!
• Inflation more likely: 2017 2% - 2.5%
• Industrial production and manufacturing little help
• U.S. Housing improving, not fully recovered
• Jobs expand <2%; unemployment rate below 5.0%
• Looking for a “Driver” for expansion
Texas and U.S. Economic GrowthAnnual Percent Change in Real GDP
6.2%
3.9%3.3%
2.6%
1.5%
0.8%
4.8%
2.3%
6.2%
4.9%
0.6%
-0.6%
2.6%
3.6%
5.7%5.1%
3.7%
4.5%
0.4%
3.6%
4.5% 4.7%
4.1%
1.0%
1.8%
2.8%
3.8%3.3%
2.7%
1.8%
‐0.3%
‐2.8%
2.5%
1.6%
2.2%1.7%
2.6%2.9%
1.5%
2.2%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%19
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
p
Texas US
Sources: BEA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 4
10-Year Treasury; Federal Funds & 30-Year FMR
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8Ju
l-08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10A
pr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12A
pr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13A
pr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14A
pr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15A
pr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct
-15
Jan-
16A
pr-1
6Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan-
17A
pr-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
30 Year Mortgage10 Year Treasury Federal Funds Effective Rate
Source: Haver Analytics; FHLMC; St. Louis FED; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University5
Weekly 30-Year Mortgage Rate
2015-12-31, 4.01%
2016-11-03, 3.54%
2016-12-29, 4.32%
3.0%3.1%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.8%3.9%4.0%4.1%4.2%4.3%4.4%4.5%
12/3
/15
12/1
7/15
12/3
1/15
1/14
/16
1/28
/16
2/11
/16
2/25
/16
3/10
/16
3/24
/16
4/7/
164/
21/1
65/
5/16
5/19
/16
6/2/
166/
16/1
66/
30/1
67/
14/1
67/
28/1
68/
11/1
68/
25/1
69/
8/16
9/22
/16
10/6
/16
10/2
0/16
11/3
/16
11/1
7/16
12/1
/16
12/1
5/16
12/2
9/16
1/12
/17
1/26
/17
2/9/
172/
23/1
73/
9/17
3/23
/17
4/6/
174/
20/1
75/
4/17
5/18
/17
6/1/
176/
15/1
76/
29/1
77/
13/1
77/
27/1
78/
10/1
78/
24/1
79/
7/17
9/21
/17
10/5
/17
10/1
9/17
11/2
/17
11/1
6/17
11/3
0/17
12/1
4/17
12/2
8/17
Source: FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 6
Texas Outlook
9
Texas Economy slowed significantly in 2016 2017 much better: energy, healthcare, business &
professional services up National economic expansion most positive factor for
continued positive 2018 Energy sector downturn impacts mostly over Texas job growth picking up, expect ~2.5% Population expansion continues Local Growth Issues becoming more pressing, causing
greater strain on state and local resources and causing some cost impacts on local housing
Texas Annual Jobs
10
7,125,7007,204,6007,301,2007,515,100
7,786,1008,058,700
8,291,4008,642,700
8,973,7009,189,400
9,461,2009,543,9009,446,4009,400,7009,527,7009,771,800
10,098,30010,428,200
10,642,40010,341,10010,374,500
10,604,20010,914,400
11,241,20011,593,900
11,869,70012,028,400
12,329,110
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,00019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
17p
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
2010-2015 +1,499,600 jobs; average 299,920/year
2012 +2.9% +310,2002013 +3.0% +326,8002014 +3.1% +352,7002015 +2.4% +275,8002016 +1.3% +158,7002017p +2.5% +300,710
Texas Business-Cycle IndexJanuary 1987=100
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Average Y/Y rate of increase 4.8%
11
Source: The Conference Board; Haver Analytics
Texas Consumer Confidence Index
12
102030405060708090
100110120130140150160
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Weekly Active Texas Rig Count & Price of WTI
13
11/21/2014, 906
5/20/2016, 173
6/27/2014, 106.69
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120$130$140$150$160$170$180
100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950
1,000
1/7/
2000
3/31
/200
06/
23/2
000
9/15
/200
012
/8/2
000
3/2/
2001
5/25
/200
18/
17/2
001
11/9
/200
12/
1/20
024/
26/2
002
7/19
/200
210
/11/
2002
1/3/
2003
3/28
/200
36/
20/2
003
9/12
/200
312
/5/2
003
2/27
/200
45/
21/2
004
8/13
/200
411
/5/2
004
1/28
/200
54/
22/2
005
7/15
/200
510
/7/2
005
12/3
0/20
053/
24/2
006
6/16
/200
69/
8/20
0612
/1/2
006
2/23
/200
75/
18/2
007
8/10
/200
711
/2/2
007
1/25
/200
84/
18/2
008
7/11
/200
810
/3/2
008
12/2
6/20
083/
20/2
009
6/12
/200
99/
4/20
0911
/25/
2009
2/19
/201
05/
14/2
010
8/6/
2010
10/2
9/20
101/
21/2
011
4/15
/201
17/
8/20
119/
30/2
011
12/2
2/20
113/
16/2
012
6/8/
2012
8/31
/201
211
/21/
2012
2/15
/201
35/
10/2
013
8/2/
2013
10/2
5/20
131/
17/2
014
4/11
/201
47/
3/20
149/
26/2
014
12/1
9/20
143/
13/2
015
6/5/
2015
8/28
/201
511
/20/
2015
2/12
/201
65/
6/20
167/
29/2
016
10/2
1/20
161/
13/2
017
4/7/
2017
6/30
/201
79/
22/2
017
Rig Count(left)
WTI $/bl. (right)
Rig Count up 286, +165% since May 2016
Source: Baker Hughes; EIA; RE Center at Texas A&M University
Current and Futures Price of WTI
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-
15
Nov
-15
Jan-
16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-
16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Sep-
17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Ave
rage
Mon
thly
Pric
e
Cushing Spot Price 6-Month Futures12-Month Futures 2-Year Futures
Sources: EIA; Haver Analytics 14
College Station-Bryan Employment by Industry
Mining, Logging and Construction, 7%
Manufacturing, 5%
Trade, Transportation, and
Utilities, 14%
Information, 1%
Financial Activities, 3%
Professional and Business Services,
9%
Education and Health Services, 10%
Leisure and Hospitality, 13%
Other Services, 3%
Government, 35%
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
B-CS Annual Jobs
62,50064,800
66,70069,700
71,90072,90074,00077,300
81,10083,400
86,00087,40088,70089,30090,40092,20093,100
95,10098,900100,600101,700101,200102,000
105,900109,200
111,800113,700
116,663
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,00019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
17p
17Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Employment continues to expand2.4% 2015 & 1.7% 2016, ~2.6% 2017
B-CS Monthly Jobs
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000Ja
n-98
Jul-9
8Ja
n-99
Jul-9
9Ja
n-00
Jul-0
0Ja
n-01
Jul-0
1Ja
n-02
Jul-0
2Ja
n-03
Jul-0
3Ja
n-04
Jul-0
4Ja
n-05
Jul-0
5Ja
n-06
Jul-0
6Ja
n-07
Jul-0
7Ja
n-08
Jul-0
8Ja
n-09
Jul-0
9Ja
n-10
Jul-1
0Ja
n-11
Jul-1
1Ja
n-12
Jul-1
2Ja
n-13
Jul-1
3Ja
n-14
Jul-1
4Ja
n-15
Jul-1
5Ja
n-16
Jul-1
6Ja
n-17
Jul-1
7Ja
n-18
Jobs
12-
MM
A
18Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Annual Employment Growth Rates
-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10A
pr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12A
pr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13A
pr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14A
pr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15A
pr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct
-15
Jan-
16A
pr-1
6Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan-
17A
pr-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
19Source: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas
US
CS-B
Texas Population 1910-2050
3,896,542
11,196,730
25,145,56127,469,114
30,541,978
37,155,084
44,955,896
54,369,297
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
21
From 1970 to 2010 (40 years), Texas added 13.9 million people –an average rate of 349,000 per year
From 2010 to 2050 (40 years), Texas will add nearly 30 million people –an average rate of about 750,000 per year
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections (2000-2010 Scenario)
Percent Change from 2010 to 2050 by Age Groups in the Texas Population
116.2%
79.6%105.1% 112.5%
262.9%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
ALL <18 18-44 45-64 65+
22Sources: Texas State Demographer’s Office 2014 Projections 1.0 Scenario; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
In 2014, Texas ranked as the 3rd
“youngest” state with a median age of 34.2 as well as the 48th “oldest” state with 11.5% > 65 years old
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
23Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Overall Growth and Change in State Population 2010-2050
Texas D‐FW Houston Austin San AntonioPopulation Population
% of State Total Population
% of State Total Population
% of State Total Population
% of State Total
2010 25,145,561 6,426,214 25.6% 5,920,416 23.5% 1,716,289 6.8% 2,142,508 8.5%
2020 30,541,978 7,920,671 25.9% 7,413,214 24.3% 2,306,857 7.6% 2,635,183 8.6%
2030 37,155,084 9,970,678 26.8% 9,278,789 25.0% 3,035,547 8.2% 3,182,644 8.6%
2040 44,955,896 12,728,992 28.3% 11,519,566 25.6% 3,960,317 8.8% 3,735,981 8.3%
2050 54,369,297 16,367,293 30.1% 14,221,267 26.2% 5,176,940 9.5% 4,294,232 7.9%
Increase 29,223,736 9,941,079 34.0% 8,300,851 28.4% 3,460,651 11.8% 2,151,724 7.4%
Total Percent Increase
116.2% 154.7% 140.2% 201.6% 100.4%
24Sources: U. S. Census; Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections (2000-2010 Scenario)
82% of total increase will go to the Major MSAs
College Station-Bryan Population: 2010-2050
Year Total Population2010 228,6602015 251,2522020 278,8432025 307,6762030 337,0712035 366,3772040 398,0662045 433,6162050 472,029
Sources: Texas State Demographers Office, 2000-2010 Projections; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
220,777 or 88% increase 2015-2050
CS-B Projected Population by Age
54,29362,979
73,73384,323
92,418 96,104 100,690107,933
118,280
155,904165,334
176,813188,878
204,621
226,416
250,158
275,327
297,212
1,373 1,795 2,125 2,434 2,304 2,418 2,445 3,183 4,1260
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0-18 19-64 65+
Sources: Texas State Demographers Office, 2000-2010 Projections; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0-18 +118%19-64 +91%65+ +201%
August Closed Sales Texas MSAsY/Y Percent Change
Texas August Sales -6%
Source: BCS Regional Association of
REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real
Estate Center at Texas A&M University
August Closed Sales Texas CountiesY/Y Percent Change
Texas August Sales -6%
Source: BCS Regional Association of
REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real
Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
103,344102,789110,830
120,749126,525
126,279
142,940151,861
177,179
191,189195,568204,084209,438
224,215
250,380
277,649
304,762
286,778
241,666
221,768211,640213,396
247,090
287,235296,828
309,518
323,607
$50,000
$70,000
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
50,00070,00090,000
110,000130,000150,000170,000190,000210,000230,000250,000270,000290,000310,000330,00019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
16
Sales Avg Price Md Price
Annual Texas Home Sales
31
Pre-Harvey:Sales +3.7%Prices +7%Post-HarveySales -1.3%Prices +7%
Monthly Sales in Texas
15,000
18,000
21,000
24,000
27,000
30,000
33,000
36,000
39,000Ja
nuar
y
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
2017
2014
2016
2015Interesting turn‐down June to July in 2016 & 2017
Through AugustSales +3.6%Av. Pr. +6.5%Md. Pr. +7.2%
Texas Monthly SF Existing Sales & Pending Sales 1 Month Earlier
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,00038,000
Jan-
13Fe
b-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep-
13O
ct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4A
ug-1
4Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
n-16
Jul-1
6A
ug-1
6Se
p-16
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17Fe
b-17
Mar
-17
Apr
-17
May
-17
Jun-
17Ju
l-17
Aug
-17
Sep-
17O
ct-1
7N
ov-1
7D
ec-1
7Ja
n-18
Closed Sale Date (Pending Listings 1 Month Earlier)
Sales Pending Listings 1 Mo. Earlier
Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas SF Building Permits
34
67,87066,161
78,714
103,252
84,565
67,96459,143
43,97535,90836,65838,233
46,209
59,543
69,96470,45270,421
83,13282,228
99,912101,928108,782111,915
122,913
137,493
151,384
166,203163,032
120,366
81,107
68,23068,170
67,254
81,926
93,478103,045
105,448106,511
60,419
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,00019
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
17YT
D
Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
2014 +10%2015 +2%2016 +1%2017YTD +14%
1990-2015 average 95,106/year
Texas MF Building Permits: Making Up the Difference?
35
8,2739,3048,291
13,879
30,16531,28132,521
40,245
51,576
40,715
28,381
33,95835,79137,537
33,036
38,671
47,271
53,196
46,918
15,83719,741
30,729
54,14553,615
64,13566,792
55,633
26,352
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,00019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
YTD
Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
2014 +20%2015 +4%2016 -16%2017YTD -5%
1995-2015 average 40,766/year
Nationally, ~12.5% are Class B/C
Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes
Jan 2000=100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Leading Index
Coincident Index
Total Housing Permits (12-MMA)
36
CS-B MSA Annual Home SalesCS-B MSA: Brazos, Burleson & Robertson Counties
1,3031,356
1,093988915
755678609595621636638
720
9541,124
1,0161,0711,1191,171
1,3951,3641,2991,403
1,549
1,833
2,0812,186
2,5582,4882,444
2,1491,9731,929
2,295
2,901
3,1653,3173,244
2,477
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
Tremendous increase in sales volume since 2011: 2012 +19%; 2013 +26%; 2014 +9%; 2015 +5%; 2016 down ~2%17YTD +3.6%
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
CS-B MSA Annual Home SalesCS-B MSA: Brazos, Burleson & Robertson Counties
1,6021,905
2,455 2,585 2,697 2,6792,099
327390
446580 620 565
376
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,50020
11
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
Existing New
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
17%17%
15%18% 19% 17%
1,929
2,295
2,9013,165
3,317 3,244
15%
2,475 +3.6%
CS-B Monthly Home Sales
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
2014
2015
20162017
2017 YTD +3.6%
2017 CS-B Home Sales by Price
0
25
50
75
100
125Ja
nuar
y
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999$200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $499,999$500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 +
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
B-CS Months’ Inventory
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
43Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at
Texas A&M University
CS-B August Sales and Months Inventory by Price Interval
44
Sales Months Inventory
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
CS-B Months Inventory by Price
012345678910111213141516
0123456789
10111213141516
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug
-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6A
pr-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
n-16
Jul-1
6A
ug-1
6Se
p-16
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17Fe
b-17
Mar
-17
Apr
-17
May
-17
Jun-
17Ju
l-17
Aug
-17
$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999$150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999$400,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $399,999
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
2017 Active Listings by Price
020406080
100120140160180200220240260280300
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
$0 - $69,999
$70,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 - $249,999
$250,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
$400,000 - $499,999
$500,000 - $749,999
$750,000 - $999,999
$1,000,000 +
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
B-CS Median Home Prices
$62,015$61,798$67,420
$72,444$77,052$79,768$83,845$83,084
$88,481$94,899
$101,686
$115,447$114,692$121,713$122,363
$128,238$133,549$137,648
$142,796$147,959$150,762$150,000$152,900
$159,000$166,500
$184,475
$204,900$215,000
$50,000$60,000$70,000$80,000$90,000
$100,000$110,000$120,000$130,000$140,000$150,000$160,000$170,000$180,000$190,000$200,000$210,000$220,000$230,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
YTD
47
2015 & 2016 +11%2017YTD +6.4%
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
CS-B Monthly Median Home Price12-Month Moving Average
$70,000
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000Ja
n-95
Jul-9
5Ja
n-96
Jul-9
6Ja
n-97
Jul-9
7Ja
n-98
Jul-9
8Ja
n-99
Jul-9
9Ja
n-00
Jul-0
0Ja
n-01
Jul-0
1Ja
n-02
Jul-0
2Ja
n-03
Jul-0
3Ja
n-04
Jul-0
4Ja
n-05
Jul-0
5Ja
n-06
Jul-0
6Ja
n-07
Jul-0
7Ja
n-08
Jul-0
8Ja
n-09
Jul-0
9Ja
n-10
Jul-1
0Ja
n-11
Jul-1
1Ja
n-12
Jul-1
2Ja
n-13
Jul-1
3Ja
n-14
Jul-1
4Ja
n-15
Jul-1
5Ja
n-16
Jul-1
6Ja
n-17
Jul-1
7Ja
n-18
48
Averaged about 0.4% per month or 4.7% per year appreciation since 1995
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Price RangePercent Distribution
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016$0 - $69,999 8.3 7.9 6.4 5.4 5.4 4.3
$70,000 - $99,999 8.6 8.4 6.7 6.7 6.0 4.6
$100,000 - $149,999 33.0 31.2 28.4 24.3 16.1 12.4
$150,000 - $199,999 27.4 28.3 32.5 31.5 31.0 26.9
$200,000 - $249,999 10.0 9.8 10.0 12.2 16.8 22.9
$250,000 - $299,999 4.6 5.4 5.5 6.5 10.5 10.2
$300,000 - $399,999 4.4 5.0 5.2 6.8 7.4 11.0
$400,000 - $499,999 1.9 2.0 2.6 3.6 3.3 3.3
$500,000 - $749,999 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.8
$750,000 - $999,999 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5
$1,000,000 + 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS®; Real Estate Center at
Texas A&M University
CS-B Sales by Price Distribution
87%
13%
71%
18%
CS-B Household Income Distribution
Income CohortsNumber of
HouseholdsCumulative
HouseholdsPercent of
TotalCumulative
PercentLess than $10,000 9,675 9,675 10.6% 10.6%$10,000 to $14,999 5,824 15,499 6.4% 17.0%$15,000 to $19,999 5,222 20,721 5.7% 22.8%$20,000 to $24,999 7,017 27,738 7.7% 30.5%$25,000 to $29,999 4,366 32,104 4.8% 35.3%$30,000 to $34,999 6,139 38,243 6.7% 42.0%$35,000 to $39,999 4,256 42,499 4.7% 46.7%$40,000 to $44,999 4,514 47,013 5.0% 51.6%$45,000 to $49,999 2,981 49,994 3.3% 54.9%$50,000 to $59,999 5,959 55,953 6.5% 61.5%$60,000 to $74,999 6,251 62,204 6.9% 68.3%$75,000 to $99,999 9,303 71,507 10.2% 78.6%$100,000 to $124,999 5,743 77,250 6.3% 84.9%$125,000 to $149,999 4,212 81,462 4.6% 89.5%$150,000 to $199,999 4,171 85,633 4.6% 94.1%$200,000 or more 5,400 91,033 5.9% 100.0%
50Source: US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Median Household Income = $42,233
CS-B Households by Highest Affordable Price
22.6
10.1
8.2
6.6
4.5
4.4
6.3
5.7
8.2
5.1
4.2
5.2
0 5 10 15 20 25
<$70,000
$70,000-$99,999
$100,000-$124,999
$125,000-$149,999
$150,000-$174,999
$175,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$499,999
$500,000-$749,999
>$750,000
Thousands of Households
51Source: US Census Bureau 2015 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
24.8%
11.1%
9.0%
7.2%
5.0%
4.8%
6.9%
6.2%
9.0%
5.6%
20% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities
4.6%
5.7%
~52% of CS-B HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000
Median Income of $42,233 can afford home priced at $138,578
CS-B Households by Highest Affordable Price
24.2
10.5
7.9
6.3
4.8
4.0
6.5
6.0
7.7
4.5
3.6
5.1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
<$70,000
$70,000-$99,999
$100,000-$124,999
$125,000-$149,999
$150,000-$174,999
$175,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$499,999
$500,000-$749,999
>$750,000
Thousands of Households
52Source: US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
26.6%
11.5%
8.7%
6.9%
5.3%
4.4%
7.1%
6.6%
8.4%
4.9%
10% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities
3.9%
5.6%
~54% of CS-B HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000
Median Income of $42,233 can afford home priced at $131,393
CS-B Households by Highest Affordable Price
25.0
10.7
7.8
6.1
4.9
3.8
6.5
6.1
7.3
4.3
3.2
5.1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
<$70,000
$70,000-$99,999
$100,000-$124,999
$125,000-$149,999
$150,000-$174,999
$175,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$499,999
$500,000-$749,999
>$750,000
Thousands of Households
53Source: US Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
27.5%
11.8%
8.6%
6.7%
5.4%
4.2%
7.2%
6.7%
8.0%
4.7%
5% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities
3.6%
5.6%
~55% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000
Median Income of $42,233 can afford home priced at $128,072
Bryan
CollegeStation
Caldwell
Hearne
Navasota
Source: BCS Regional Association of
REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real
Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Home Sales by Zip Code, CS-B MSAY/Y % Change, August 2017
August Sales -20%YTD Sales +3.6%
September(p) -5.6%
Bryan
CollegeStation
Navasota
Source: BCS Regional Association of
REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real
Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Home Sales Brazos CountyY/Y % Change, August 2017
August Sales -25%YTD Sales +2%
Bryan
CollegeStation
Caldwell
Hearne
Navasota
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
University
Home Sales Price/Sq. Ft. CS-B MSA by Zip Code
Y/Y % Change December 2016
August P/SF +6.6%YTD P/SF +4.7%
CS-B Single-Family Building Permits
619
772
947936
280264239226233229224280
493
619606550
614
775 783776763856
999
1,156
892
802
920891814
727777
619
784824
1,014
1,2091,218
775
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,400
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
2016 Record Year! Double 2011 level2017YTD -5.6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
CS-B Single-Family Building Permits
763
856
999
1,156
892
802
920891
814
727777
619
784824
1,014
1,209 1,218
775
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,40020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
2016 Record Year! Double 2011 level2017YTD -5.6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
MLS New Home Sales Brazos CountySeptember 2016 – August 2017
Bryan
CollegeStation
Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS® Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
New Home Statistics
Month SalesAverage Price
Y/Y % Price Change
Avg.DoM
Sept. 2016 19 $364,504 7.7% 81
Oct. 22 $384,734 29.5% 86
Nov. 21 $397,542 54.1% 121
Dec. 30 $340,203 8.2% 91
January 15 $338,618 -5.2% 84
February 19 $349,714 8.6% 117
March 43 $362,973 19.4% 159
April 42 $365,330 19.1% 118
May 37 $345,859 13.3% 85
June 43 $339,759 4.2% 121
July 33 $354,025 -0.4% 130
August 31 $369,866 -3.0% 73
B-CS Multi-Family Building Permits
164
938
470
739
338
767842
620 591
840
728
300
821
665
1,036
1,344
109
218
825
1,236
852 831
503
1,642
1,910
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17YT
D
2017YTD +356 units; +23%2-4 Units -47% to ~305 units;5+ Units +36% to ~1,315 units
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M (2-4 units + 5+ units)