dr james d. ford, dr lea berrang -ford, alexandra lesnikowski
DESCRIPTION
Are we adapting to climate change?. Dr James D. Ford, Dr Lea Berrang -Ford, Alexandra Lesnikowski Climate Change Adaptation Research Group Dept. Of Geography McGill University, Montreal www.jamesford.ca [email protected] , [email protected] , - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Dr James D. Ford, Dr Lea Berrang-Ford, Alexandra LesnikowskiClimate Change Adaptation Research GroupDept. Of GeographyMcGill University, Montreal www.jamesford.ca [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Are we adapting to climate change?
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Outline
Context
1. The rise of adaptation▪ Failure of mitigation ▪ Locked into some climate change (likely >2C) ▪ Climate already changing ▪ Multiple benefits today
2. Are we adapting? ▪ Policy implications▪ Does anyone know if adaptation is taking place and where? ▪ Does anyone know if mitigation is taking place and where?
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s
The famous “Keeling Curve”
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Outline
Context
3. How do we track adaptation?▪ Mitigation is relatively easy to monitor ▪ Adaptation is more challenging
4. Emerging imperative: indicators and milestone for adaptation
▪ What are appropriate indicators of adaptation?▪ Is there evidence that we are adapting?▪ What would adaptation ‘look like’?
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Outline
How is adaptation tracked currently?
1. IPCC reports / National assessments ▪ Qualitative▪ Criticisms of methods: Not systematic, transparent ▪ Time-consuming & not timely (5-6 years)
2. Expert knowledge
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Outline
Adaptation tracking: a call for new approaches
1. Systematic2. (semi) Quantitative3. Rapid4. Focused on adaptation action5. Emerging examples
▪ Tompkins et al. (2010) – adaptation in the UK (grey & peer-reviewed lit)▪ Arnell (2010) – review of Climatic Change▪ Biesbroek et al (2010) - adaptation in the EU
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Outline
Why do we need this type of review?1. Systematic, rapid, transparent (selection +
analysis)2. Compliments IPCC process3. Guided by a focused question: Are we adapting?4. Provide a snapshot of trends using a simple proxy
A need for increased (methodological) scrutiny of global adaptation.
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Are we adapting to climate change?A global systematic review of climate change adaptation
Systematic review
of peer-reviewed literature
Ford et al 2011; Ford et al 2011
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“climat*”AND
“adapt*”
In Web of Knowledge2006-2009
Systematic document retrieval
Inclusion ExclusionPhase 1: Keyword searchEnglish Non-English1 January 2006-1 July 2009 Pre-2006 or after 1 July 2009Indexed in the ISI WOK Not available via ISI WOKReviews & Articles OtherPhase 2: Title & abstract review
Human Natural (e.g. plants, animals)Adaptive response Mitigation, Vulnerability onlyPractical focus Conceptual / Theoretical focus Present Prehistoric or futureAdaptation activities or actions Predictive models & vulnerability
assessments or intentions to act
87 documents
met inclusion criteria
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Aimed at quantitative analysis
What is the stimulus?Who or what is adapting?What is the nature of the
adaptation?
Systematic document analysis
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Are we adapting to climate change?A global systematic review of climate change adaptation
Reporting on adaptation
actions is limited but increasing
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Are we adapting to climate change?A global systematic review of climate change adaptation
Adaptations are most likely to be stimulated by climatic variability
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Are we adapting to climate change?A global systematic review of climate change adaptation
Adaptations are often mainstreamed
Debates over mainstreaming (e.g. Dovers (2009), Adger and Barnett (2009))
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Are we adapting to climate change?A global systematic review of climate change adaptation
The global distribution of adaptation reports is
inequitable
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Are we adapting to climate change?A global systematic review of climate change adaptation
Adaptation profiles differ between high and low
income countries
Low HighReactive adaptations Proactive adaptations
Short-term motivations (e.g. market conditions)
Stimulated by long-term climate change
Individual or community level
National and regional level
Weak government or stakeholder involvement
Stronger government involvement
Natural resource sectors (e.g. agriculture,
fisheries)
Non-resource sectors (e.g. infrastructure,
transportation)Avoiding, coping,
spreading riskMonitoring, building
partnerships, institutional guidelines
Middle income countries are varied, but generally have a similar profile to low
income countries
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Are we adapting to climate change?A global systematic review of climate change adaptation
The global distribution of adaptation reports is inequitable
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Outline
Discussion
1. Adaptation action is limited (research has not translated into action).
2. Extreme climate stimuli may facilitate adaptation response.
3. There is an adaptation deficit in middle-income countries (despite a similar profile to low income countries)
4. Negligible action to take advantage of adaptive opportunities
5. Negligible consideration of unique vulnerabilities of women, elderly, children, and non-Arctic Indigenous populations.
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Is adaptation to the health effects of climate change taking place?
1. Systematic assessment of adaptation actions in high income nations
2. Further development of ‘are we adapting’ methodology
Lesnikowski et al 2011
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Goals
1. How advanced are national responses?• What range of health vulnerabilities are being addressed?• What types of action are being initiated?
2. Are the needs of all populations considered?• Are vulnerable groups being integrated into adaptation planning and
implementation?
3. Who is leading the way and who is lagging behind?
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Methods1. Policy analysis of National Communications of 38 Annex-1
nations to the UNFCCC (NC 5’s : 2009-10) 2. Identification of adaptations
• Any reference of initiatives resulting to health vulnerabilities of CC • N=1,912
3. Development of a Policy codebook• Level of actions
• Statements of recognition• Groundwork: impact / vulnerability assessments, adaptation
research, stakeholder involvement, conceptual tools, policy recommendations
• Adaptation action: legislation, infrastructure, outreach, surveillance, financial support, medical interventions
• Health vulnerabilities: extreme weather, food and water safety, air quality, vector-borne disease, etc.
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Result 1: Adaptation is primarily at the groundwork stage
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Result 2: Major health vulnerabilities not addressed by all nations
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Health Vulnerability: Extreme Heat
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Health Vulnerability: Floods
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Health Vulnerability: Disease
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Result 3: Limited health rationale in adaptations
1. Majority of adaptations relevant for health but not framed as ‘health adaptations’
2. Only 15% explicitly presented as health adaptations
3. Consistent with health adaptation deficit (e.g. Costello et al 2009)
4. Mainstreaming dominates
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Result 4: Reporting on groups is inconsistent across populations
1. Limited evidence that vulnerable populations being targeted
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People With Chronic and Pre-existing Conditions: How Often Are Their Needs Considered?
Adaptation Areas Addressed
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People with Disabilities: How Often Are Their Needs Considered?
Adaptation Areas Addressed
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Indigenous Groups: How Often Are Their Needs Considered?
Adaptation Areas Addressed
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Discussion
1. Adaptation action is limited (research has not translated into action)
2. Impact and vulnerability assessments dominate3. Hypothesize a role for extreme events, country size 4. The link between CC impacts and human health in not being
explicitly made
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Adaptation in Canadian Health Policy
A systematic review of Civil Society Organization (CSO) participation in health adaptation initiatives in Canada
Poutiainen et al. (In submission)
Methods1. Systematic identification of CSOs engaged in health adaptation activities in Canada2. Quantitative systematic review of adaptation actions (mandate, jurisdiction, stimulus,
response)3. Qualitative interviews with 17 leading CSO engaged in health adaptation initiatives
in CanadaKey results1. CSO Participation is highly diverse. CC recognition high among senior admin in leading
organizations2. Adaptation actions are largely occurring outside of the health sector3. Responses predominantly reflect awareness & research activities4. Partnerships across sectors and stakeholders are widely considered as the most important future
opportunity for CSOs5. National and international policies are critical in defining the financial and policy environment
190 OrganizationsDatabase of 1196
initiatives
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Summary: Are we adapting to climate change?
1. 3 research projects: systematic tracking methodology developed
2. Baseline of current action:• Adaptation is emerging as a priority, but we remain
predominantly in the groundwork stages.• Adaptations are generally mainstreamed (will this be
enough?)• There is limited focus on vulnerable populations, despite
evidence of differential vulnerability.3. Critical time for adaptation 4. Need for continued assessment of progress
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Outline
Limitations and considerations
1. Data quality is a primary concern What kind of data do you use? Need to consider accessibility, consistency
2. Adaptation as a concept is constantly evolving What does adaptation look like? How do you define and categorize adaptation?
3. How strictly do you define what you include and exclude in a systematic analysis?
4. A reasonable proxy of adaptation trends
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Where do we go from here?
1. Expanded global analysis▪ High, middle, and low-income countries▪ Total of 105 countries from all continents▪ Full range of vulnerabilities identified in IPCC AR4▪ Cross-sector analysis
2. NC6 Measuring progress on adaptation
3. What makes countries more likely to adapt? Comparing “factors” of adaptation using data gathered from NC5 Do countries with similar adaptation profiles share particular
characteristics? A C Lesnikowski et al (In preparation)