dr. d.p. dubey scientist e meteorological centre, bhopal (india) email- [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
Weather, climate and water information contributes to the safety and welfare of the public & has the potential to provide immense social and economic benefits to society.
It educate about important issues such as :
variability in weather climate change vulnerability to natural hazards water resources
It is not sufficient to employ good science and provide accurate forecasts.
There is also a need to educate public, and more specialized users, about availability of services .
IndiaWater Resources Management
Monsoon rainfall
Main crop
• Kharif - June to Sept.
• Rabi - Oct to April.
L
Operational communication to end-users (farmers)
State Met Centres
Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs
Postal Contact
Personal Contact
Radio News Papers
KVK
State Agril. Dept.
Farmer TelevisionTelevision
SMS on mobileSMS on mobile
Weather forecast
• Short range
• Medium range
• Long range
ASSESSMENTS
Climate Change
ASSESSMENTS
Source : IPCCSource : IPCC
AVE. SURFACE TEMP. INCREASE 1.5 TO 5.8ºCRATE OF WARM LARGEMEAN SEA LEVEL RISE 0.09 TO 0.88 MTRSWATER VAP. CONCENTR. / PRECIP. TO
INCREASELOW LATITUDE REGIONS MEAN PRECIP. TO
INCREASEASIAN SUMMER MONSOON PRECIP. INCREASE EL-NINO EVENTS VARY IN NEXT 100 YEARS IN
SMALL BUT INCREASE
GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS – IPCC PROJECTIONS
REGIONAL EFFECTS: Asia
Freshwater Availability:Decreased river flows after glaciers recede; will decrease.
Floods:Glacier melt in Himalayas; sea level rise in deltas
Crop yield:Increase up to 20% in E and SE; decrease up to 30% in S andcentral Asia by 2050; hunger risk high
Observed impacts in South AsiaIntense Rains and Floods
Droughts
Cyclones / Typhoons
• Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh,• Nepal and N-E India in 2002, 2003 and 2004• Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million• people lost their homes
• 50% of droughts associated with El Niño• Droughts in Orissa (India) in 2000-2002: crop failures, mass starvation affecting 11 million people
•Increasing intensity of cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea since 1970• Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100, 000 deaths
EVIDENCES / EVENTS
DROUGHT HITS KARNATAKA
2008
COLD WAVE IN NORTH
2006
HEAT WAVE IN NORTHERN INDIA
2007
NILAM CYCLONE (2012)
Vulnerability to Climate ChangeINDIA
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE CASE SEA LEVEL RISE ??
Coastal Zones
Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR
•Sea level rise displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.
7500 km coast line
• Heat / Cold Wave
• More variable R/F
• Increased Extremes Weather Events
• Erratic Onset, advance and
retrieval of Monsoon
• Shift in Active/break cycles
• Intensity and frequency of Monsoon
Systems
Variability in Weather & Climate
•Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India –• 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.
•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture.
•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.
Agriculture
Increasing population
Growing urbanization
Decreasing crop land
Continuing crop loss
Declining crop production
Declining bio-diversity
Factors influencing agriculture and food security
Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India
•Improve land management practices-soil &nutrients
•Increase water management
•Reduce inefficiency in water use
•Preserve and enhance plant and animal
•Adjust food consumption patterns
•Promote eco-friendly energy use
•Shift to different cropping patterns
Adaptations to Climate change
Climate Friendly InitiativeWide-ranging reforms such as:
• energy efficiency• increasing penetration of cleaner fuels• thrust for renewable energy technologies
cleaning of rivers, enhanced forestation, installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy technologies and introduced clean coal technologies cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel
Water
Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular water stressed conditionsRare water shortages
Key Vulnerable River Basins
The Indian situation
• Surface and ground water availability - 1,869 BCM of this, 40 % is not available.
Groundwater Consumption:
• 92% - Agricultural• 5% - Industrial • 3% - Domestic.
Surface water Consumption:
• 89% - Agricultural• 2% - Industrial• 9% - Domestic.
The Indian situationGroundwater is the major source of water in the country with 85% of the population dependent.
Groundwater water table decline - 33 centimeters per year.
The Indian situation
• Groundwater [Depleted]• Surface water [Polluted]• Rainfall [Wasted]
• Population [ ]• Demand [ ]• Consumption [ ]
SCARCITY
• Agriculture [ ]• Health & Environment[ ]• Future [ ? ]
• Industrial Growth [ ]• Economy-Industry [ ]• Water Business[ ]
The Indian situation
Challenges ….
Public
• Wasting Water
• Polluting Water
Challenges ….
Uncontrolled exploitation of ground water by some industrial establishments
Safety of industrial establishments from surplus surface water and floods
Lack of proper draining facilities
Challenges …
• 2020 India will become a water stressed nation.
• 66 million Indians in 20 states are at risk due to • excess fluoride
• 10 million due to excess arsenic in groundwater
Solution …
• Rain Water Harvesting
• Irrigation Water Management
• Hydrological projects - Construction of Dams
• Artificial Recharge to Ground Water.
Solution …National River Linking Project
Solution …
The much-awaited seawater desalination plant, the largest in the country with a capacity of 100 MLD (million litres per day), coming up near Minjur about 35 km north of Chennai .
Under the technology, developed by the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), warm water is pumped into a vacuum flash chamber and the resultant vapour is condensed using cold water to get crystal clear potable water.
Desalinated water is of a better quality and the cost is only 6 paise per litre.
Solution …
•Water awareness groups among social media networking sites like Twitter,
•Facebook are creating new trend among the social awareness groups.
•Its not a solution to be found, it should be a
RESOLUTION everyone should take.
