dr dev kambhampati | fy 2014 us agricultural trade forecasts- usda
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Dr Dev Kambhampati | FY 2014 US Agricultural Trade Forecasts- USDATRANSCRIPT
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts
Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion
Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion
Surplus $6.4 billion to $39.0 billion
USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
Released on May 29, 3:00 PM EST
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
U.S. Agricultural Trade
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12 14(f)
Bill
ion
$
39.0
Exports
Imports
Trade Surplus
Records
137.4
110.5
42.9
149.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Grains andFeeds
Oilseeds Livestock,Poultry, and
Dairy
Cotton HorticulturalProducts
Bil
lio
n $
FY 2014 Forecasts F
eb
ruary
May
+$4.5 Billion +$0.6 Billion -$0.4 Billion
May vs. February Commodity Forecasts
Large gains in grains and oilseeds; slight reduction in horticultural products
+$2.4 Billion
No change
Record volume for soybeans and feeds; Corn
volume rebounds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2012 2013 2014f
Millio
n T
on
s
Overall volume up 31% from FY13
Other*
Soybeans
Feeds
Wheat
CoarseGrains
170 mmt 166 mmt
*Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco
146 mmt
130 mmt
Record Forecast for Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
Billi
on
$
Overall Forecast up $0.7 Billion from FY 2013
Other
Dairy
Beef & veal
Hides & skins
Dairy, beef, and hides & skins each hit historical highs
Top 10 U.S. Markets in FY2014
0 10 20 30
Philippines
Indonesia
Taiwan
HK
S. Korea
EU
Japan
Mexico
Canada
China
Billion $
Record
Half of top markets forecast to hit records
Soybeans and Feeds Drive Higher U.S. Exports to China
0
7
14
21
Oct-Mar FY13 Oct-Mar FY14
Billio
n $
U.S. Exports to China In First Half of Fiscal Year
Other
Feeds & fodders
Grains
Meat & poultry
Cotton
Soybeans
$11.7 B $14.1 B
Exports Up to China, SE Asia, EU, & S. America Change in FY 2014 Exports from February Forecast
+$1.5 bil
+$3.5 bil
+$900 mil
+$900 mil
-$200 mil +$200 mil
+$200 mil
Total $0.5 billion at a record of 110.5 billion
Tropical Products $1.0 billion – lower prices for coffee and rubber
Horticultural Products $0.2 billion – lower volume of wine
Grain and Oilseeds $1.7 billion – record wheat and soybean imports
Livestock & Dairy $0.1 billion – higher swine, beef, and pork imports
Other Imports $0.1 billion – mainly tobacco and planting seeds
FY 2014 Imports
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $35.8 Billion $4.5 Billion
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast
2014 Key Developments Corn volume up sharply on rising global demand and less competition from Argentina Wheat prices up on tight supplies and deteriorating crop conditions DDGS and sorghum up on record demand from China
Wild Cards Timing of South American corn shipments Northern Hemisphere winter wheat harvests Wheat export policies in India and Argentina
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $33.8 Billion $2.4 Billion
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
2014 Key Developments Soybean volume rises on record sales to China Soybean meal volume up on stronger demand Strong demand and tight U.S. supplies boost soybean complex prices
Wild Cards Argentina export activity
9
14
19
24
29
34
'02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $32.2 Billion $600 Million
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
2014 Key Developments
Dairy higher on strong global demand Beef up mostly on unit values due to robust global demand
Poultry down on lower egg and egg product shipments Pork edges lower on tighter exportable supplies
Wild Cards PED impact Ongoing SPS trade issues
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $4.4 Billion Unchanged
Export Outlook for Cotton
2014 Key Developments
China demand slows Prices remain strong
Wild Cards Additional changes in China’s reserve policy Cotton yarn demand in China
0
2
4
6
8
10
'02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.1 Billion Down $400 million
Export Outlook for Horticulture Products
2014 Key Developments Tree nut growth lower as rising prices weaken Chinese demand Fresh fruit and vegetables down on lower volumes to Canada and Korea
Wild Card California Drought
10
15
20
25
30
35
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12 14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast
Record