dr. deborah ann sunter · united nations human settlements programme, cities and climate change:...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Deborah Ann Sunter
BS Cornell University
MS/Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley
Postdoc U.S. Department of Energy & UC Berkeley
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City-Integrated Renewable Energy for
Meeting Global Sustainability Needs
World is Becoming More Urban
3/39United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, "World Urbanization Prospects:
The 2014 Revision, CD-ROM Edition," 2014.
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions (UN, 2011).
Cities Responsible for 70% of
Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases
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United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions (UN, 2011).
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A solution that addresses climate
change must also address cities.
“The battle for sustainable development…
is going to be largely won or lost
in our cities.”
Toepfer, Director of UN Environment Programme
City-Integrated Renewable Energy
7/49Bahrain Twin Towers CIS Tower: Manchester, UK
City-Integrated Photovoltaics
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Creative Solar Solutions
Go Beyond Rooftop Solar
CIS Tower: Manchester, UK
City-Integrated Solar Thermal
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City-Integrated Geothermal
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City-Integrated Wind
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Renewable
electrical
generation
Mitigation of the
urban heat island
effect
Pollution
dispersion
Ventilation
Bahrain Twin Towers Guangzhou’s Pearl River Tower
Is City-Integrated Renewable Energy Capable of
Satisfying the Large Energy Needs of Cities?
12/49Bahrain Twin Towers CIS Tower: Manchester, UK
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Power Density Needs Can’t be Met by
Commercially Available Technologies
Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."
Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928
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Power Density Needs Can’t be Met by
Commercially Available Technologies
Reduce Energy Consumption
Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."
Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928
15/49
Power Density Needs Can’t be Met by
Commercially Available Technologies
Increase Power Density of Renewables
Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."
Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928
Reduce Urban Energy Consumption
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United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions (UN, 2011).
New Construction Opportunity
Mumbai
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Urban
Buildings
80% of all buildings that will
stand in India in 2030 have yet
to be constructed as of 2010
https://in.finance.yahoo.com/photos/labourers-construction-
residential-building-mumbai-photo-043252658.html
More Affordable Than Expected
18/49Greening Buildings and Communities: Costs and Benefits, Good Energies, 2008.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nu
mb
er
of B
uild
ing
s
Public Perception:
17% added cost*
Median in Data:
< 2% added cost
*2007 opinion survey by World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Range of Reported Premiums
Additional Cost to Build Green:
Evidence from 146 Green Buildings
New Construction Mandates
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1 2 3 4 5 6
All Residential 148431 147753 148649 147889 155348 151432
Zero Net Energy 140 480 7432 14789 31070 151432
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
New
Constr
uction S
tart
s
California: Estimated Number of ZNE Homes Per YearCompared to New Construction Starts
New Residential Zero Net Energy Action Plan 2015‐2020. California Energy Commission
Efficiency Division & California Public Utilities Commission Energy Division.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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Current Status
Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."
Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928
Reduce Energy Consumption 50%
21/49Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."
Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928
22/49
Power Density Needs Can’t be Met by
Commercially Available Technologies
Increase Power Density of Renewables
Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."
Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928
Photovoltaic Technology Innovation
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This plot is courtesy of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
Vertical Axis Wind Turbines Increase
Power Density by Order of Magnitude
24/49Dabiri JO, Greer JR, Koseff JR, Moin P, Peng J (2015)
“A new approach to wind energy: opportunities and
challenges,” AIP Conference Proceedings 1652: 51-57.
Sunter, Deborah A., Dabiri, John O., and Kammen, Daniel M.
Science. (E-Letter, June 24, 2016 and September 10, 2016)
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6288/922.e-letters.
Power Density of Renewables: Laboratory
Tested Efficiency, Optimal Resource
25/49Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."
Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928
Improve Power Density of Renewables
26/49Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable
energy for urban sustainability." Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928.
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Case Study:
Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban
Transportation Needs
Urban Transport Electrification
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Urban
Transport
% N
ew
Lig
ht
Duty
Vehic
le S
ale
s
Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “Electric Vehicles: Revolutionizing Energy.” 2011.
Urban Transportation Energy Consumption
29/49Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban
sustainability." Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928.
87 Global Cities Considered
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GoogleMaps: UITP Millenium Cities
Photovoltaic Coverage Needs
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𝑢transport
=𝑒transport
ρurban
𝑢solar= ηPV𝐺
% PV Coverage Required
=𝑢transport
𝑢solar
𝑢 = energy density
𝑒 = energy per capita
𝜌 = population density
𝐺 = solar insolation
Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016): 559-567.
City Attribute Analysis:
Data Science Technique
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• The UITP Millennium Cities Database
contains over 200 attributes, including
factors related to:– Urban form
– Existing transportation infrastructure and investment
– Behavioral patterns
– Time and energy efficiency of a variety of modes of transportation
– Transportation pricing and fines
• Extremely Randomized Forest– Well-suited for datasets with more attributes (200+) than
samples (87 cities)
City Attribute Analysis Results
33/49225 Features
% R
eduction in S
SR
(S
um
of
the S
quare
d R
esid
uals
)
Feature Importance Based on Extremely Randomized Forest
Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016): 559-567.
City Attribute Analysis Results
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% R
eduction in S
SR
(S
um
of th
e S
quare
d R
esid
uals
)
Total private passenger
vehicle kilometer per
urban hectare
Bus vehicle kilometer
per urban hectare
Annual road
investment per
kilometer of road
Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016): 559-567.
Highest Ranked Features
Private Passenger Vehicle Use Predicts
Feasibility of PV-Powered Transportation
35/49Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016): 559-567.
Solar Insolation Does Not Adequately Predict
Feasibility of PV-Powered Transportation
Solar Insolation Private Passenger Vehicle Use
36/49Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”
WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016): 559-567.
Policy Implications
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• Most cities required only moderate
coverage (<15% of the urban land
area).
• Only statistically significant feature:
total private passenger vehicle
kilometres per urban hectare.
• Comprehensive policies are needed
to not only encourage city-integrated
photovoltaics for use in the urban
transportation sector but also to
reduce urban transportation energy
needs through decreased private
vehicle use.
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A solution to climate change may be
found in our cities.
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Thank You