Dr. Daniel Scott and Jackie Dawson

5th World Congress on Snow and Mountain Tourism Andorra 27-29 March 2008

The North American Ski Industry

Approaches to Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability of the Ski Marketplace

Climate change analogues

Supply side modeling

Demand side modeling

Integrated Assessments

Conclusions

Pacific West

Rocky Mountain

Midwest Northeast

Southeast

Eastern Canada

Western Canada

Compared to

Europe:

• 2nd largest ski

industry

•more snowmaking

capacity

•ownership by 1

company

•more

conglomerates

Region Number of Visitors

Snowmaking Capacity

(% terrain)

Average Season Length

Operating Profit

(% gfa)

Canada East 10,050,000 85% 125-130 n/a

Canada West 7,845,000 70% 135+ n/a

U.S. Northeast 13,660,552 100% 129 10.69

U.S. Southeast 5,503,915 100% 99 12.91

U.S. Midwest 7,532,897 94% 95 10.57

U.S. Rocky Mountain 19,606,365 94% 134 18.29

U.S. Pacific West 10,578,599 68% 125 12.02

NSAA, 2005; 2006; CSC, 2007; Scott et al. 2006

= climate change analogue = supply side modeling = demand side modeling

‘An analogue approach uses past climate data which is representative of future change along with past performance data allowing conclusions to be made about possible future impacts.’

-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Ski Areas Association

Pacific West Rocky

Mountain

Midwest

Northeast

Southeast

Average 2000-01 Analogue 2001-02 (2050s)

Average 1995/96 Analogue 1997/98 (2020s)

Average 2000/01 Analogue 1999/00 (2020s)

Average 2000/01 Analogue 2001/02 (2050s)

Average 2003/04 Analogue 2002/03 (2020s)

Indicator Climatically Normal Winter

(1961-90)

2020s Analogue (1998-99) 3 seasons

2050s Analogue (2001-02) 1 season

Season Length 132.5 128 (-3.4%) 118 (-10.9%)

Visitation 13,789,002 12,299,495 (-10.8%) 12,187,577 (-11.6%)

Operating Profit (% gross revenue)

21 20.90 (+0.5%) 16.80 (-19.2%)

Snowmaking -hours operated

930 1635 (+75.8%) 1036 (+11.4%)

Snowmaking - % power utilized

40 54 (+36.7%) 52 (+31.3%)

Strengths

“Real-world” conditions represented - including full range of supply and demand side adaptations

Opportunity to examine wide range of indicators (demand, costs, profitability, community affects)

Weaknesses

Assessment for a short period of time (1 year and 3 years only) – rebound affect?

Analogues selected on temperature only and may not reflect future climate change

Key differences between University of Waterloo studies and European studies

incorporation of snowmaking

impact indicator is change in season length (number of days and key holidays) versus ‘snow reliability’ (for 100 days)

Therefore studies are not directly comparable

Scott & McBoyle, 2006

Climate Adaptation Options in

the Ski Industry

Southern Ontario

2020s 2050s

Best Case -5% -8%

Worst Case -17% -44%

Southern Quebec

2020s 2050s

Best Case -1% -3%

Worst Case -11% -28%

Lake Louise

(base @ 1600 metres)

2020s 2050s

Best Case 0% 0%

Worst Case -1% -12%

US Northeast (with snowmaking)

2020s 2050s Best Case -13% -16% Worst Case -15% -24%

Aspen, Colorado (with snowmaking)

2030s 2100 Best Case -7 days -28 days Worst Case -14 days -65 days

Sierra Nevada Mountains, California

(natural snow only)

2050s 2100 Best Case -21 days -49 days Worst Case -42 days -105 days

5

18 36

14

18

12

Total ski areas in study = 103

0

9 8

7

17

0

2040-69 (-62 ski areas)

0

6 2

7

17

0

2070-99 (-71 ski areas)

A2 Emission Scenario

1961-90

‘Winners’ – prepare for congestion, water conflicts, real-estate speculation, development pressures

‘Losers’ – prepare for job losses and potential for decline in tourism spending

How skiers respond to changes in supply is a KEY research priority

NE Region Market Survey

1,207 participants / response rate = 89%

Behavioural Adaptations

Past Poor Conditions

(% )

Future Poor Conditions

(%)

Stop skiing for entire season

79 81

Stop skiing for part of the season

55 49

Travel to another resort in the region

60 41

Travel to another resort outside region

66 38

Done something else with their time

53 47

Because of poor ski/snowboard conditions in the past have you . . .

If poor ski/snowboard conditions occurred in the next 3 out of 5 winters would you . . .

Climate Analogue

Modeling Supply

NSAA data Operator Interviews

GCM modeling

Snow - making adaptation modeling

Modeling Demand

Tourist survey

1 2

3

4

Winter Tourism System

Modelling Outside

Influences

Planning

Relevant

Information

for Communities

and Industry

5

International Olympic Committee

Climate Change Corporate Policy

Sustainable Snowmaking

Investing in Climate Change Real-Estate

Climate Change Advocacy

Aspen Skiing Company joins Chicago Climate Exchange (Feb 15, 2005)

Contraction of ski operators

Consolidation of ski operators into regionally diversified ski conglomerates cost implications /elite sport?

Community adaptation must begin now (‘winners’ and ‘losers’)

Demand response is uncertain, but key to the future of the industry next generation of skiers?

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-200

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US Ski Operators