Dr. Bruce ForbesSenior Scientist, Arctic Centre,University of LaplandM.A., (Vermont College of NorwichUniversity and the Center for NorthernStudies)Ph.D., (McGill University)

Areas of Interest: • Biogeography • Human-Environment Relations • Disturbance/Restoration Ecology • Conservation Biology • Cultural Ecology

Current Research:Environmental and social impact ofindustrialization in Northern Russia.(ENSINOR) Funded by the FinnishAcademy

Human Dimensions Research:Rationale and Implementation

Bruce ForbesArctic Centre, University of Lapland

Rovaniemi, Finland

• Global environmental change presents great challenges to circumpolarcountries.

• It comprises elements of both indirect climate-driven and more directanthropogenic or human-induced change.

• Threats to the sustainability of arctic social and ecological systems includerapid changes in:– Climate (snow cover, vegetation, permafrost, fire, insect outbreaks)– Land-use

• Mineral and petroleum extraction, cutting of timberline forests (e.g.North America, Eurasian Arctic)

• Large herbivore management (e.g. Fennoscandia, Russia, Alaska andCanada)

– Socio-economic/legal systems (employment in changing industries,health/demographic shifts, land-tenure/property rights)

• An inability or unwillingness to mitigate many of the above changes obligesus to examine the adaptive resilience that often characterizes human-environment relations in the Arctic.

• Draw lessons from comparisons between N America and Eurasia using thecommon threads of climate, land use and Rangifer spp. (reindeer/caribou).

While the impression in the media is often that global warming is relatively uniform, in fact not all sectorsof the Arctic are currently experiencing a warming trend. If one is interested in ecosystem effects, it is

perhaps more accurate to think in terms of regional ‘hot spots’ and arguably more effective to focus ourresearch efforts in areas most likely to be experiencing rapid change now or in the near future.

Focus on:

•NW N America•N Fennoscandia•NW Russia

Yet, we need to keep in mind that global change concerns not only climate, but also changes in land-use.Direct human effects on arctic ecosystems may be even more important than climatic change in the nextfew decades. These direct effects include disturbances associated with resource exploitation and alteredgrazing regimes due to changing patterns of herbivore management. Recent models acknowledge that

land management policies (e.g., fire suppression, reindeer herding) have as much or more effect onnorthern vegetation as expected changes in climate, but

human land-use is still under-represented in most models.

Disturbance and recovery

(1997)(2000) (5/36≈15%)

Nellemann et al.(2001)

Land-use changeOngoing industrialization

1950-2000

The land area affecteddirectly and indirectly by

infrastructure such as roads,transportation corridors,

pipelines, airports,powerlines and dams hasbeen recently mapped by

the GLOBIO project underUNEP.

Focus on:• NW North America• Northern Fennoscandia• Northwest Russia

Land-use changeOngoing industrialization

2000-2050

Nellemann et al.(2001)

The Arctic 2050 Scenarioestimates that the land

area affected byanthropogenic

disturbance may increasefrom ca. 15% to more

than 50% within 50years, resulting in serious

social, ecological andeconomic impacts.

An important rationale for increasing the level of human dimensions research is simply the fact that thereare large populations of native and non-native people living in the Arctic that are significantly affected by

different aspects of global environmental change. Several areas undergoing recent climate warming arealso experiencing or expected to undergo accelerated development.

Nentsy women corralling reindeer near Nadym, Yamal region, NW Siberia

(2002)

Some prominent research groups have made a plea to focus on sustainability not from aperspective of growth and predictability but instead as a matter of instability and change.

Social and ecological systems are inherently dynamic and equilibrium is the exception ratherthan the norm. In this view it is adaptive capacity and resilience that engender sustainability.

(2003)

Understanding vulnerability, adaptive capacity and resilience entails fostering a human dimensionsapproach. There are at least two sides of the picture: first is undertaking research that seeks to address

local and regional concerns as they pertain to global change. These concerns will vary, sometimesstrikingly, from region to region. One clear contrast is the fact that climate change is a key issue in the

west, whereas socio-economic, land use and legal changes are all paramount from a local perspective incontemporary northern Russia. East or west, the regulatory environment under which any economic

development takes place must be acknowledged as critical.

The other side is incorporating people and their knowledge into the research process in ameaningful way so that added value is attained from combining western scientific knowledge

with local knowledge. Different knowledge systems can complement each other. However, thisprocess is complicated and extremely challenging for all parties. Furthermore, we don’t always

have a local population with relevant experience so there may be neither personal nor oralhistories to draw upon when trying to assemble chronologies of change. We often have

excellent records from places like northern Alaska and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago onsuch things like sea ice conditions, terrestrial and freshwater habitats, and population trends and

range shifts for game animals.

• However, direct knowledge of things like feedbacks of atmospheric trace gases, deep seacurrents and carbon emission,s or sea ice conditions far from the near-coastal shelf, polynyasand floe edges may be lacking.• Human dimensions research thus needs to be relevant to people - their environment, theirhealth, their livelihoods; it needs to involve people in research planning and implementation;• It would unrealistic to expect local knowledge to play a large role in places where there is nohistory of extensive or long-term human occupancy or resource use.

Historical movements during different seasons within and among numerous locations interrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems means that people can havedetailed knowledge of local and even regional change.

Ring seal hunting, Baffin Island.

Moving to summer camp, Clyde River, Nunavut

Photo by Sven Haakanson

However, intimate ecological knowledge is not a universal among all northern peoples.Experience on the land and sea is key. Technological, economic and demographic trends have

made documentation of the many different ways of knowing aboutarctic ecosystems an increasingly urgent task.

• More woody vegetation(willows) now in theMackenzie River Delta thanfifty years ago (Aklavik, NWT)

• Lakes and Mackenzie Deltawetlands are “drying up”,especially in Crow Flats locatednorth of Old Crow (Yukon)

• Treeline moving north nearArctic Village (NE Alaska)

• More scrubby-brush (dwarfbirch) on south-facing slopes(Arctic Village, NE Alaska)

Rapid changes in climate Community comments on climate-related vegetation changes in NW N America (Kofinas et al. 2003):

Rapid changes in climate

Indigenous peoples in westerncountries seem to be more awareof the specter of climate changeand have made specificsuggestions with regard to futureresearch. At the same time,involvement of indigenouspeoples in co-management,natural science research and thevaluing of local or traditionalecological knowledge has a muchlonger history in North Americathan in Europe and Russia.

(2002)

Rapid changes inclimate

“Sámi [reindeer herders]fear that climate change

may contribute to changesin snow conditions and

therefore in the accessibilityof winter pastures for

reindeer. Equallyfundamental to us is the

question about the possibleimpact on the growth of

non-forage vegetation,which will ultimatelyreduce the quality of

pastures”(Turi 2000).

Johan Mathis & Ellen Inga Turi, Yamal, 1997

Rapid changes in land-use,socio-economic and legal

institutions

In contrast, among reindeer herders innorthern Russia, impacts other than

climate appear to be of more immediateconcern and the overall situation has

been described as a ‘crisis’ at theHuman Role in Reindeer/Caribou

Systems Workshop (Krupnik 2000).This has lead to what has been

described as ‘passive’ rather than‘active’ adaptation among Nenets to

the many and drastic changes(Klokov 2000).

Taken from the cover of “Gazprom: Emerging Europe Oiland Gas”. Shareholders’ prospectus issued by DeutscheMorgan Grenfell (London), December 1997

Photo by Bryan & Cherry Alexander, Yamal Peninsula

A significant proportion of arcticresearch funding in NorthAmerica and Europe is nowallocated for global changestudies, in particular climatechange.

Yet, as startling as some of thereported climate-relatedecosystem changes are, for manyindigenous groups in northernRussia they pale next to thesocio-economic and legalupheaval that has taken placesince the collapse of the SovietUnion.

As an example, the rapid andlargely unregulated industrialdevelopment of the RussianArctic contrasts strongly withthe more stringent regulatoryenvironment in North America.

The debate is no longer about ‘if’ Russia’s arctic petroleum can beexploited but, rather, ‘how soon’. Former state monopolies likeGazprom are urgently raising capital now via shares traded ininternational stock markets. At the same time, mergers like BP-TNK and joint ventures w/other western partners are going ahead.

International Herald Tribune

The fact is that new pipeline construction is proceeding quickly across the eastEuropean Arctic and northwest Siberia at the same time as the Northern Sea Route is

being opened to tanker shipping. This exemplifies the process of globalization, yet it isfar from merely an issue of global economics. Direct and indirect impacts on socialand terrestrial ecological systems to date are extremely significant regionally, with

great potential for marine and atmospheric feedbacks from, e.g. thawing permafrost,accelerated carbon efflux, and increased river runoff.

“Building the road to your future”. Billboard in Obskaya, Yamal Region

On the one hand, there is complete physical destruction of the plant-soil cover overvast areas, e.g. sand and gravel quarries often cover several square kilometers.

Sand quarry near Obskaya, Yamal

On the other hand, we see rapid transformation of the hydrological, chemical,permafrost and nutrient regimes in otherwise intact vegetation. Here, dust

affects moist acidic tundra along roads in northwest Siberia.

Truck traffic near Loborovaya, Yamal Peninsula

ASTER satellite image of Bovanenkovo, Yama (July 2001)l, 15 m pixel

One tool that has really developed well since the 1970’s is remote sensing. The diversity and quality ofavailable platforms and imagery has steadily increased. Very high resolution imagery is now available to

the general public in both panchromatic and false color with pixel sizes of as little as 80 cm. These arestill relatively expensive but the competition between IKONOS II and Quickbird has already caused theirprices to drop significantly since they were first launched. At the same time, declassified Corona imageryhigh resolution from the 1960s and 70s is now available from the U.S. government at reasonable prices.

Land-use changeVery high resolutionimagery provides anexcellent way tohelp developtimelines at scalesrelevant to activehunters and herders.In a recent studyfunded by the EUwe have used suchimages to documentextensive land-usechanges. Visiblehere is the absenceof lichens due tosummer tramplingand winter grazingon subarctic Finnishfjells. It shows thatRangifer spp. canhave profoundecosystem impacts.IKONOS satellite image, 4 m pixel size, 11 x 11 km, July 2001

Finland

Norway

Oblique and vertical airphoto archives are also potentially usefulsources of information. The fact that the recently documentedchanges in shrub abundance in northern Alaska by Sturm et al.are consistent with the aforementioned observations of huntersactive in the same region demonstrates that local knowledge hasconcrete value in recognizing the signals of global change. Withthis in mind, we can probably go even further. Take the exampleof shrub growth, which can be strongly limited by heavy grazingpressure, as seen here on the Finnish/Norwegian border.

Sturm et al. (2001) Nature

Finland Norway

There is evidence that a release from grazing pressure can lead to increases in shrub abundance similar tothose caused by climate change. Local and traditional knowledge in regions characterized by more

widespread forms of land use can perhaps help to partition the effects of climate change from effectswrought by natural or managed shifts in the abundance and density of living resources, e.g Rangifer.

Photo by Sven Haakanson

Another type of change that can be readilydetected using remote sensing techniques is

shifts in wetland extent and abundance.Factors controlling methane emissionsinclude substrate moisture, vegetation

composition/cover and permafrost status.Tracking and monitoring something as

spatially and temporally variable as wetlandsover areas large enough for developing globalchange models is a daunting task. Yet, as we

saw in northwest North America, local peoplealso have relevant knowledge concerningwetland dynamics. This is at least partly

because wetlands comprise seasonally criticalhabitats for many species nutritionally and

culturally important to northern peoples.

Land use change. Another question is how do we account for the cumulative effect oflocal impacts? We know that small-scale, low-intensity disturbances can accumulate

in space and time to achieve relevance at the regional scale. In North America,impacts like off-road vehicle traffic have been effectively banned since the 1970s. Asimilar ban in Russia is virtually ignored and the laws are unenforced. The resulting

damages are cited by both local people and scientists as regionally significant.

Drilling for seismic survey during summer near Loborovaya, Yamal Peninsula

In NW Russia, such losses to the petroleum industry over 20-30 yrs have reportedly pushed an increasingnumber of animals onto progressively smaller parcels of land leading to widespread pasture degradation.

Deflating sand dunes in reindeer pastures near Yuribei River, Yamal Peninsula

In addition to these ecosystem impacts, industrial development can also lead to health anddemographic problems (Pika & Bogoyavlensky 1995). Compared to their North American

counterparts, Russia’s arctic indigenous peoples lack political & legal clout (Osherenko 2001).

Nentsy family near Bovanenkovo, Yamal Peninsula

Human dimensions research. In order to better characterize the effects of recent trends in highlatitude climate, it is necessary to understand not only the burgeoning raft of quantitative data on bio-physical parameters, but also the arguably diminishing pool of traditional ecological or local knowledgeon both climate and land use change.Qualitative data based on participatory approaches to research derive from a time slice of the past 30-50+years, within the lifetime of active or retired people who have lived their life on the land and sea full-timeor seasonally.

Nentsy brigade camp near Bovanenkovo, Yamal Peninsula

Opportunities for the implementation of humandimensions research

• International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC)– Interim Science Planning Group met 24 April 2004 in Reykjavik– The group will develop an international science overview in late summer

• International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP II)– Copenhagen, November 2005– 10 themes, several of which encompass human dimensions

• International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2009– International Council of Science (ICSU) has established a

multidisciplinary Planning Group following a proposal from the USPolar Research Board, the European Polar Board and the ScientificCommittee on Antarctic Research

– Human dimensions components were highlighted during the ArcticScience Summit Week last month in Reykjavik and will certainly behighlighted again next week during ICASS V in Fairbanks

In conclusion• Relative to climate change, land-use and other socio-economic drivers are

sometimes under appreciated as critical components of global change. Intruth, however, one cannot study e.g. treeline dynamics or shrub abundancein many parts of Fennoscandia or Russia and arguably N America withoutaccounting for human activity and herbivores.

• Threats to the sustainability of arctic social and ecological systems includerapid changes in: (i) Climate and (ii) Land-use and (iii) Socio-economic andlegal systems.

• Management of any living resource in a time of rapid change is thereforeabout people as much as it is about individual species, populations or plantor animal communities, if not moreso.

• Participatory approaches to research and management are relatively new inEurope and Russia compared to North America, where co-management hasbeen around for decades. Local people can have detailed ecologicalknowledge and need to have a meaningful role in regional resourcemanagement as well as in policy-relevant research programs.

• Sustainable development under global change requires building adaptivecapacity to enhance ecological as well as socio-economic resilience. Humandimensions research has an important role to play in addressing all of theseissues.