dr atam rao head nuclear power technology development
TRANSCRIPT
IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
Global Issues for nuclear power
Dr Atam RaoHead Nuclear Power Technology Development
November 25, 2010
IAEA
Outline
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Markets•
Take a 100 year look?
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Established versus growing countries•
Newcomers vs expanding nuclear power countries
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Products and suppliers•
Conclusions•
No one solution fits all
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Coal is still dominant globally•
All solutions are needed
•
EU and USA have been engines of innovation•
Will the future be the same?
•
Can nuclear industries thrive without home markets?
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China’s ascent – projected annual GDP (in 2006 dollars trillions)
( Ref: Goldman Sachs – reported WSJ Nov 22, 2010)
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Total Primary Energy Demand Projections (million metric tons oil equivalent: Ref. WSJ Europe Nov 13, 09 based on OECD/IEA)
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Is Asia growth slowing? -
GDP annual % growth for diff. decades
(Ref: World Economic Outlook Apr 2010 IMF)
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Can country populations tell us what the future will be?
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Per capita installed electricity generating capacity varies considerably
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Developing countries need a lot and Developing countries need a lot and spend a bigger fraction on energyspend a bigger fraction on energy
To improve quality of life- increase electricity/capita- limited investment capability
Developing countries- spend higher % GDP on energy
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Generation Costs and Tariffs
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Generation costs for different options vary considerably across countries
•
Subsidies effect the costs (tariffs) paid by the consumers
El ectr i ci ty T ar i f f set By Indi a Regul ator (Sept 2009)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Sol ar PV Sol ar T her mal Wi nd Hi gh Wi nd l ow Nucl ear New
700MW
Coal i mpor ted Coal pi thead
R e f : W SJ E u r o p e A p r 6 , 2 0 1 0
Electricity Tariffs in ASEAN Countries
1.96.7 8.4 9.2
15.6 17.3
0.05.0
10.015.020.0
Indo
nesi
a-Lo
w
Indo
nesi
a-H
igh
Thai
land
Vie
tnam
Phi
llipi
nes
Sin
gapo
re
Ref:The Straits Times - Mar 1, 2010
US c
/kw
h
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Current estimates are 60 million cubic
meters of water production per day
50% Gulf region
17% N. America
10% Asia
8% N. Africa
7% Europe
1% Australia
Cumulative contracted capacity
Membrane Processes
Distillation Processes
WATER &ELECTRICITY NEEDS- MidEast & N Africa
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Country Status 2008 2010Looking at options 16 31
Strongly looking at nuclear 14 14
Active preparation for nuclear 7 7
Decided to choose nuclear 4 10
Bid invitation prepared 1Plant ordered 2Under construction 1 1
Total 51 65
Ref::IAEA “International Status and Prospects” 2008 and 2010
More countries moving towards nuclear power plants
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Nuclear Power Trends
New countries interested in nuclearAbout 35 have installed capacity less than 5 GweWeak and not integrated grids About 20 newcomers expected by 2030
Major new construction in expanding countriesMajor industrial countries have maintained skills in upgrade and life extension activitiesMajor changes in suppliers
fewer and largernew players
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MILLESTONE “STEPWISE” APPROACH to introducing nuclear power
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Plants under construction by model/supplier country
Standardization?
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For the future countries have varying plans
France – no growthFocus on replacementTransition to fast reactors
India – large growthFocus on new capacityFast reactors essential
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Developing products and innovation?
•
The West developed six “killer apps”(Ref: Civilization- The West and the Rest by Professor Niall Ferguson)
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Competition•
Scientific revolution
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Rule of Law/representative government•
Modern medicine
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Consumer society•
Work ethic
•
Will the future for nuclear power be driven by these basic issues?
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Evolution of Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) 70’s to now to ?
RedundancyMaintainabilitySafety
OptimizationSimplificationPassive Safety
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Evolution of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) is similar to PWR’s
RedundancyMaintainabilitySafety
OptimizationSimplificationPassive Safety
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What about Small & Medium Reactors?
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Many designs already available
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Small reactors (<300 Mwe) are small fraction -
Except India
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Medium (< 700 MWe) reactors are significant
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Within 5 years countries trend to bigger sizes•
Except for Eastern Europe (15yrs) & India (35yrs)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
N≤400 400<N≤700 700<N≤1100 1100<N≤1300 N>1300
Unit Capacity
Tota
l Cap
acity
(MW
e)
New Addition in 2040 - 2050
New Addition in 2025 - 2040
By 2025
Developing country expectations on MWe addition by plant size
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Is there an option if Uranium supplies are limited? Fast Reactors being built today at commercial sizes
Safety Vessel (∅
13.5 m, H 13.5 m,160 t)
Lowered into Reactor Vault (June 2008)
India’s 500 MWe Fast Ractor-Commissioning 2012
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Summary and conclusions
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61 plants under construction•
give many different signals for the future
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Future will have many different options•
Expanding countries vs newcomer countries
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Each country will adopt different strategies•
Energy independence will be a key driver
•
Localization will play a major role•
Many suppliers aiming for big portions of market