Zounds!
When science sounds just a little too weird to be true
Episode 1: Live Longer Through Walking, Smelling, and Avoiding Red Meat
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Want to live longer?
It seems like every few months, I see an article that links something to my untimely death.
It’s almost like somehow, some way, we’re all going to die.
The Question
Unfortunately, while I’d like to believe that a nice nose, a vegetarian diet or a fast stride is going to make me live longer, I know better.
Correlation is NOT causation.
Photo credits: The Gifted Photographer, My Sweetheart the Drunk, Lloydcrew. (Flickr.com) Used under Creative Commons License.
The question is, why can’t the scientists
behind these studies figure that out?
The Source of the Problem
As it turns out, it’s not the scientists making wild, sensational claims.
It’s the science reporters.
Most have no idea what these studies are actually saying.
The Source of the Problem (cont’d)
As it happens, before I got into the social sciences, I studied
journalism.
Our scientific training was pretty meager.
For example, we spent an entire hour learning
to report statistics.
Journalism Degree ProgramCoursework Checklist
□ Scientific method (15 minutes)
□ Reporting statistics (1 hour)
□ Naming political scandals “something”-gate (2 weeks)
□ Covering tragic events (1 month)
□ City council meetings (3 weeks)
□ Opining on politics (1 month)
□ Writing great leads (1 semester)
□ Sports writing (2 classes)Note: This diagram is fictional, of course.
But ask a journalist – it’s not far from the truth.
FIGURE 1 – JOURNALISM COURSEWORK
The Source of the Problem (cont’d)
When I got to business school, I got a “D” on my first statistics test.
I learned then that statistics requires a lot
of study and hard work to understand properly.
Most journalists don’t.
The Source of the Problem (cont’d)
So, take this story, for instance.
It cites a study published in the latest
Journal of the American Medical
Association.
But all this study finds is a correlation
between gait speed and survival in older
adults.
A skeptic would argue it’s an indicator of
lifestyle, NOT a cause of longevity.
Why This is an Issue
“So?” you might ask. “Why should this
bother us?”
I’d argue it’s because the real story is so
much more interesting.
Sedentary lifestyles have been linked to all
sorts of diseases, including heart failure.
Science (and common sense!) suggests that as you get older, an active
lifestyle can extend your life expectancy.
Why This is an Issue (cont’d)
The study’s finding – that gait speed pertains
to survival rates – is really talking about
those who have kept up with their walking as
they age.
It links a behavior (walking as a form of
exercise) to an outcome (living longer
during old age).
That’s pretty cool!
Why This is an Issue (cont’d)
But the way the news is being reported
suggests that it’s not the behavior, but the
variable, that matters…
…as if the size of your stride at any stage can tell you how long you
can expect to live!Photo credit: Wellyproject. (Flickr.com) Used under Creative Commons License.
It’s no wonder that Americans often
“flunk” tests designed to study scientific
literacy.
We’re bombarded with sensational claims and don’t know what real scientific studies are
actually telling us.
Conclusion
It’s important to be skeptical when you
read about the results of a scientific study.
That way, you get a clear picture of the
facts.
Science Reporting Skepticism Question Checklist
□ Is the journalist implying causation from a mere correlation?
□ Did that political poll really shift, or is the change in approval less than the margin of error?
□ How many people were polled for this study?
□ Does the study’s source of funding play a role in the conclusions?
□ What are the actual scientific journals reporting as the findings of this study?
FIGURE 2 – SCIENCE SKEPTICISM CHECKLIST