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• American futurist “Bucky” Fuller : a properly posed question is answered 100% of the time theoretically and 50% of time in practice.
• Q: How can we create sustainable cities?
– It can’t be just about reducing carbon emissions
– We have to consider water-cycle management, biodiversity & people, mobility and housing
– How can we leverage new technologies?
– How can we best measure progress toward goals?
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Green Building –
Pathway to a Better Future
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• LEED Certified ~35,000 non-residential projects through 2016
• 20% outside the US (Canada, China, Brazil, India)
• Projects in nearly 150 countries
• Now nearly 600 building certification programs worldwide
• BREEAM & LEED are only two global eco-labels; by 2020, add EDGE from World Bank/IFC
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• Resource savings (energy, water, waste)
– Average energy savings 15% - 25% vs. conventional
• Improved building designs & better materials
• Healthier buildings (Indoor Air Quality, chemical controls, daylighting & lighting quality)
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• U.S. Commercial Office Buildings
– 5% higher rents
– Faster letting (improves financial results)
– 6% higher resale value
– Lower operating costs
• Green buildings with Eco-Label:
– More acceptable to multinational tenants
– Help to “future-proof” a building vs. competition
– May lead to higher productivity
– May lead to better health outcomes
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• “3-30-300” rule
• In U.S. offices, approx. annual costs, $/sq.foot:
– $3.00 for energy
– $30.00 for rent
– $300 for people (salaries & benefits)
• Actual numbers are even more convincing (chart)
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Source: US DOE/EIA; Architecture 2030
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• Clarified what is a “green” building
• Reinvented architectural education & practice
• Changed building engineering practice, esp. to reduce energy use:
– E.g., 200 kWh/sq.m./year was normal for offices
– <100 kwh/sq.m./year now commonly achieved
– 50 - 75 kwh/sq.m./year is possible at low Δ cost
– Net zero energy now achievable (new projects)
• Better construction quality
• Educated policy makers & government agencies
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We Started with a Simple Idea…
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Vs.
“A Camel is a Horse Designed by a Committee”
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US Nonresidential LEED Projects
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US Nonresidential Market Uptake
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US Nonresidential Market Uptake
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• Existing certification systems (eco-labels) won’t get us the carbon reductions we need
• Building codes offer some benefits in “raising the floor”, but don’t change overall carbon footprint very fast
• Green building has failed to deliver enough benefits at current costs to gain widespread adoption
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• Tech trends push everything to be better, faster, cheaper, more engaging, etc.
• Commercial real estate is converging rapidly
• Green building & sustainable cities can piggyback on these “megatrends”
• We need tech-savvy, always-on, connected “smart” green buildings & smart green cities
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• Use Big Data analytics to organize operations
• Leverage algorithms to measure sustainability
• Cloud computing offers a fresh start
– Green building approach is 25 years old
• A unified, low-cost approach should make sense to building owners and operators
• Technology trends are your friend, moving fast is the method, and ingenuity is the means
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The Edge, Amsterdam, 98%+ BREEAM rating, 27,000 sensors
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A key premise: it's going to be far easier for software to
enter all other industries than for those industries to
hire software people.
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• Tech systems don’t help you directly to create sustainable cities; a new vision is required
• Why wait 5 - 10 – 15 more years to get started?
– Try a new approach (BAG): Set “Big Audacious Goals”
• Aim for rapid prototyping new approaches that work for most buildings & greatest building area
– Adopt “eco-districts” formula: start small, scale fast
• Crowdsource new ideas; Offer X-Prizes for results
• Take a leap into the future: PROJECT LEAPFROG!
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• An X-PRIZE is a highly leveraged, incentivized prize competition that pushes the limits of what’s possible to change the world.
• It captures a country’s imagination, inspires others with similar goals, spurs innovation & accelerates positive changes.
• Original X-PRIZE (1994): a $10 million incentive competition to inspire a new generation of private passenger-carrying spaceships.
• The winning vehicle, Spaceship One, was piloted to space twice within two weeks to win the competition in 2004 (10 years).
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• Clear precedents:
– Mobile phones in Africa (instead of land lines)
– Mobile payments in India & Kenya (vs. physical banks)
– Distributed power: PV, biomass and wind (vs. coal-fired central plants)
– Beijing 2030: only electric vehicles = no air pollution
– Space-based web makes massive data use almost free!
• Can a technology leapfrog put smart building measures into every building?
– Rate every building with “Off-the-shelf” platforms!
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• The “old way” won’t scale in time
– E.g., Green Finance tools need scale to work (to reduce transaction costs)
• Create scale in 5 years like these two companies:
– Airbnb: the world’s largest & most valuable hotel company with zero capital investment in hotels
– Uber: the world’s largest & most valuable car & driver company with zero capital investment in cars
• The lesson: If you’re short of money or time, you have to be long on ingenuity!
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• Create rapid sustainability pathways in LT with focus on absolute performance measures:
– Energy use: net zero for new projects; near net zero for renovations & retrofits (EU “Build Upon” program)
– Water use: whole systems approach
– Waste generation: net zero to positive
– Purchasing: only buy planet-positive products
– Carbon accounting using EU metrics
• Focus obsessively on lowering costs of green & creating an awesome user experience (UX)!
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• Blockchain for renewable energy & microgrids
– Allows payment for excess energy sharing among private owners
• Artificial intelligence for rapid decisions
– Example: Algorithms for building renovations allow decisions on measures without on-site audits
• Augmented (virtual) reality for visualizing choices
– Invite citizens to play the “sustainable city” game
– See changes easily over time & get results
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• Reduce energy costs and energy imports
– Achieve goal of 100% renewables well before 2050
• Healthy, more productive workplaces
– Lower health-care costs, higher profits
• Resilience in face of climate-change events
• Develop centers of expertise/export services
– Denmark: wind energy
– Netherlands: hydraulic engineering
– Nordics (SE, DK): sustainable urban planning
– Lithuania: ?
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Put yourself in a position to win!
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Bloomberg HQ, London, BREEAM 98.5%
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GreenBuildConsult.comReinventinggreen-
building.com/blog
@jerryyudelson
Slideshare.net/
yudelson