Download - Www.pinnacle-advisory.com. Historic Perspective September 11, 2001 Fear of Travel Economic Recession
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P innacleAdvis oryG roup
www.pinnacle-advisory.com
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Historic Perspective
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September 11, 2001
Fear of Travel
Economic Recession
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MOTT Survey
Suburban Boston
Occupancy –7 Points
Avg Rate – 5%
Boston/Cambridge
Occupancy –6 Points
Avg Rate –5%
2001 Operator Forecasted Declines as a direct result of 9-11
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Suburban Boston 2001
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Source: Smith Travel Research
81% 84%
56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Occupancy
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston Monthly OccupancySeptember 1999 - 2001
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Source: Smith Travel Research
71%
75%
65%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
Occupancy
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston OccupancyYear-To-Date Through September 1999 - 2001
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Source: Smith Travel Research
$114.83
$120.45
$108.40
$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120$130
Average Daily Rate
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston Monthly Average Daily RateSeptember 1999 - 2001
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Source: Smith Travel Research
$101.63
$109.39 $110.67
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Average Daily Rate
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston Average Daily RateYear-To-Date Through September 1999 - 2001
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Source: Smith Travel Research
$92.91
$101.11
$61.07
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
RevPAR
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston Monthly RevPARSeptember 1999 - 2001
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Source: Smith Travel Research
$71.95
$81.71
$71.49
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
RevPAR
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston RevPARYear-To-Date Through September 1999 - 2001
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Occupancy: 62% (Down 11 Points)
Average Rate: $109 (Down 2 Percent)
RevPAR: $68 (Down 17 Percent)
Suburban Boston 2001
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Suburban Boston RevPAR by Quarter 1999-2001 (Forecasted)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
Rev
PAR
1999
2000
2001
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Boston / Cambridge 2001
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
83% 88%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Occupancy
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge Monthly OccupancySeptember 1999-2001
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
76%
80%
73%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
Occupancy
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge OccupancyYear-To-Date Through September 1999-2001
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
$228.02 $220.76
$182.84
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Average Daily Rate
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge Monthly Average Daily RateSeptember 1999 - 2001
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
$188.36
$195.07
$186.51
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
Average Daily Rate
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge Average Daily RateYear-To-Date Through September 1999 - 2001
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
$188.57 $193.17
$109.52
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
RevPAR
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge Monthly RevPARSeptember 1999 - 2001
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
$142.21
$155.47
$135.22
$125
$130
$135
$140
$145
$150
$155$160
RevPAR
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge RevPARYear-To-Date Through July 1999 - 2001
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Occupancy: 69% (Down 9.5 Points)
Average Rate: $186.49 (Down 7 Percent)
RevPAR: $128.57 (Down 18 Percent)
Boston / Cambridge 2001
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston/Cambridge RevPAR by Quarter 1999-2001 (Projected)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
AD
R
1999
2000
2001
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Suburban Boston 2002
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Factors Affecting The Suburban Boston Lodging Market In 2002
New SupplyStill Significant (6% vs 8%)
Citywide ConventionsWorse (15 vs. 17)
The Economy Worse Than Expected
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Occupancy: Up Two Points to 64 Percent
Average Rate: Down 2 Percent to $107.30
RevPAR: Down 1 Percent to $68.73
Suburban Boston 2002
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Suburban Boston Occupancy by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
Occu
panc
y 2000
2001
2002
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Suburban Boston ADR by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
$85.00
$90.00
$95.00
$100.00
$105.00
$110.00
$115.00
$120.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
AD
R
2000
2001
2002
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Suburban Boston RevPAR by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
RevP
AR
2000
2001
2002
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Boston / Cambridge 2002
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Factors Affecting The Boston/Cambridge Market In 2002
Supply Changes
Citywide Conventions
Non-Citywide Group Demand
Corporate Demand
Leisure Travelers
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Supply Changes
No Change In Short-Term2.4 Percent Increase in 20014.0 Percent increase in 2002
Projects:Hampton Inn
Commonwealth HotelNine-Zero
Embassy SuitesRenovation of Ritz Carlton
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Citywide Conventions
15 Citywides (Down From 17)
Loss Of Seybold will impact April
Now 2Q Looks Weak (In addition to 1Q)
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Non-Citywide Group Demand
In-House Group Pace is now off
Pace Improves in 2H 02 (with economy?)
Cambridge pace is not expected to improve
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Corporate Demand
Slow Recovery
Lack of compression from groupswill limit ability to drive rate
No Forecasted Economic Growth Until 2H ‘02
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Leisure Demand
“All About Rate”
Increased Supply in Suburbs
Decline In International Travel
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Occupancy: Up 1 Point to 70 Percent
Average Rate: Up 1 Percent to $189
RevPAR: Up 3 Percent to $131
Boston / Cambridge 2002
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston/Cambridge Occupancy by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
Occu
panc
y 2000
2001
2002
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston/Cambridge ADR by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
$-
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
AD
R
2000
2001
2002
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Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston/Cambridge RevPAR by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
ADR
2000
2001
2002
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P innacleAdvis oryG roup
www.pinnacle-advisory.com