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AQUEDUCTAQUEDUCTWRI’S GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOLWRI’S GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOL
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A GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOL
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ZOOM IN FOR MORE DETAIL – 15,000 CATCHMENTS
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AQUEDUCT ALLIANCE
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AQUEDUCT WATER RISK FRAMEWORK
Regulatory &
reputational risks
� Baseline water stress
Physical risk: QUANTITY Physical risk: QUALITY
Overall Water Risk
� Inter-annual variability
� Seasonal variability
� Flood occurrence
� Drought severity
� Upstream storage
� Groundwater stress
� Return flow ratio
� Upstream protected land
� Media coverage
� Access to water
� Threatened amphibians
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DATA SELECTION CRITERIA
• Literature review
• Global coverage for comparability
• Publicly available
• Comparative analysis of:
• Granularity, • Granularity,
• Time frame,
• Publication date and source
• Consulted with subject matter experts
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EXPERT REVIEWERS
� CDP Water Disclosure Project
� Ceres
� Columbia University
� Deloitte Consulting LLP
� Global Adaptation Institute
� Global Water Strategies
� The World Bank
� US Environmental Protection Agency
� University of Michigan at Ann Arbor
� University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
� University of Virginia
� Water Footprint Network� Global Water Strategies
� Nanjing University
� National Geographic
� Pacific Institute
� The Nature Conservancy
� Water Footprint Network
� World Business Council for Sustainable
Development
� Yale University
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BASELINE WATER STRESStotal annual water withdrawals (municipal, industrial, and agricultural) expressed as a percent of the total annual available flow; higher values indicate more competition among users
Data Sources:Global Drainage Basin Database, National Institute for Environmental Studies of JapanGlobal Land Data Assimilation System 2, NASA Goddard Labs, 1980-2008Water Use by Sector, Food and Agriculture Organization, 2010Consumptive Use Ratios, Shiklamanov and Rodda, 2003
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FLOOD OCCURRENCEcount of the number of floods recorded from 1985 to the present date
Data Sources:Global Archive of Large Flood Events, Brakenridge, G., Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 1985-2011
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DROUGHT SEVERITYaverage length times dryness of droughts from 1901 to 2008 (drought is defined as a contiguous period where soil moisture remains below the 20th percentile)
Data Sources:Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcing for land surface modeling, Li H., Sheffield J., and Wood E.F., 1901-2008
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GROUNDWATER STRESSthe ratio of groundwater withdrawal relative to the recharge rate to aquifer size; values above one indicate where unsustainable consumption could affect groundwater availability and dependent ecosystems
Data Sources:Water Balance of Global Aquifers Revealed by Groundwater Footprint, Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., Bierkens, M.F.P., and van Beek, L.P.H., 1958-2000
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THE POWER OF AGGREGATION
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SECTOR SPECIFIC WEIGHTING
Electric power
Semi-conductor
Oil & Gas
Mining
Construction Materials
Textile
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
WRI Default
Agriculture
Food & Beverage
Chemicals
% Quantity % Quality % Reg&Rep
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CHALLENGE: RISK TO BUSINESS OPERATIONS
P&G USES AQUEDUCT TO EVALUATE MANUFACTURING FACILITIES
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CHALLENGE: SUPPLY CHAIN RISK
Photo: flickr/bigbirdz
McDONALD’S USES AQUEDUCT TO MAP 353 OF ITS LARGEST SUPPLY CHAIN FACILITIES
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Challenges to Food Security: 40% of irrigated crops in the United States is
located in areas of water stress concern
USA, Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated Agriculture
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USA, Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture(IPCC Scenario A1B)
Challenges to Food Security: 73% of current irrigated crops in the United
States would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025
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Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants
Challenges to Energy Security: 19% of S&E Asian power plant design
capacity is located in areas of water stress concern
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Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants (2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)
Challenges to Energy Security: 55% of S&E Asian current power plant
design capacity would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025
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THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
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COMING SOON: UPDATED PROJECTIONS
CHANGE IN WATER STRESS: 2025
Data: The Coca-Cola Company
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COMING SOON: LIVE SATELLITE DATA
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WATER POLICY
Image TBD… suggestions?
COMING SOON: POLICY, LEGAL, & REGULATORY INDICATORS
Photo: flickr/waferboard
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CONCLUSION
WRI.org/AqueductWRI.org/Aqueduct
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DATA SOURCES: PHYSICAL RISK
Water supply and demand:
• Global Drainage Basin Database, National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan, polygons
• NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2), 1979-2009, 1 x 1 degree
• Water Use by Sector, Food and Agriculture Organization, 2010, country
• Consumptive Use Ratios, Shiklamanov and Rodda, 2003, 26 regions
Floods:
• Global Archive of Large Flood Events, Brakenridge, G., Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 1985-2011, polygons
Drought:
• Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcing for land surface
modeling, Li H., Sheffield J., and Wood E.F., 1901-2008, 1 x 1 degree
Groundwater Stress:
• Water Balance of Global Aquifers Revealed by Groundwater
Footprint, Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., Bierkens, M.F.P., and van Beek, L.P.H., 1958-2000, 50 x 50 km
Dams
• Global Reservoir and Dam Database V1.1, Global Water System Project, 2007, points
Protected areas:
• The World Database on Protected Areas, IUCN, UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 2012, polygons
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DATA SOURCES: REGULATORY/REPUTATIONAL RISK
• Google News, 2002-2012
• Proportion of Population Using an Improved Drinking Water
Source , World Health Organization/UNICEF Joint Monitoring
Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation, 2010
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, IUCN, 2011• The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, IUCN, 2011
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DISAGGREGATION
Baseline Water Stress
(withdrawal/available flow)
Inter-annual Variability
(standard deviation/mean annual supply)
Seasonal Variability
(standard deviation/mean monthly average supplyaverage supply
Upstream Storage
(upstream storage capacity/mean supply)
Return Flow Ratio
(upstream non-consumptive use / available flow)
Upstream Protected Land
(% total supply originating from protected lands)
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HYDROLOGICAL MODELING
Key Data: Total Blue Water (Bt)
Definition: Flow accumulated runoff upstream of the
catchment plus the runoff in the catchment.
Data
Sources:
GDBD basins, NASA GLDAS2 runoff Runoff
Runoff
A
BTotal Blue Water (B) =
Runoff (A) + Runoff (B)
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HYDROLOGICAL MODELING
Runoff
Runoff
A
Key Data: Available Blue Water (Ba)
Definition: Total amount of water available to a catchment
before any uses in the catchment are satisfied
and is calculated as runoff plus all water flowing
into the catchment from upstream catchments
minus upstream consumptive use.
Data
Sources:
GDBD basins, NASA GLDAS 2 runoff, UN FAO
water use, Shiklomanov, I.A. and J.C. Rodda
consumptive use ratios
Consumptive Use
B
Available Blue Water (B) =
Runoff (A) – Consumptive Use (A) + Runoff (B)