Would banning firearms reduce murder or suicide?
Gary Mauser
CUFOA - 2017
Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy
Spring 2007Vol 30 (2)DON B. KATES
GARY A. MAUSER
•Don B. Kates• American Criminologist• Professor of law (ret.)• Pacific Research Institute,• San Francisco, CA, USA
•Gary A. Mauser• Canadian criminologist• Professor emeritus• Simon Fraser University• Burnaby, BC, Canada
Don Kates (1941-2016) RIPwith Che
Snopes.com, in a biased review, claims our findings are FALSE in “Harvard Flaw Review”
Caveat• Our study is based on the best available data• Murder and suicide rates are government sources• Firearms ownership rates provided by United Nations
or the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, Swiss Small Arms Survey
• Nevertheless, errors abide in available data• E.g., it is exceptionally difficult to estimate firearms
ownership, definitions of murder and suicide can vary from country to country, reporting quality varies
Statistics can be frightening
• “Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say.”
• ~William W. Watt
Summary
• The availability of firearms does not correspond with increased murder and suicide rates
• In countries which published statistics were available:
• Civilian firearms ownership was not linked with higher homicide and suicide rates
• Countries with more civilian firearms owners tend to have lower murder and suicide rates
Claim• The United States has the industrialized world’s
highest murder rate because of high availability of guns
Facts• Russia has a much higher murder rate• In general, higher gun ownership rates are associated
with lower homicide rates • (both internationally and intra-nationally)
Comparing homicide rates:United States and Russia(per 100,000 people)
Year USA Russia (USSR)
1960s 5.5 14
1990s 8.1 24
2002 5.6 20.5
2009 5.0 15
Claim
• Europe has low murder rates because of stringent gun control
Facts
• Europe had low murder rates before gun controls introduced in twentieth century
• Research does not support effectiveness of stringent gun controls
Notes, Tables 1 – 2
• Tables 1 - 2 cover all the Continental European nations for which both data sets are available. The homicide data given is for 2003 or the closest year thereto to match the year of the gun ownership data. That publication is the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2003 (Oxford U. Press 2003).
• The homicide rate data come from JURISTAT: Homicide in Canada (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics) for the years 2001-04.
Table 1 - Gun ownership and murder rates
Nation Murder rate (per 100,000)
Gun ownership (guns per 100,000)
Murder rate year
Russia 20.54 4,000 2002
Lithuania 11.70 0 1998
Hungary 2.22 2,000 2003
Finland 1.98 39,000 2004
Sweden 1.87 24,000 2001
Poland 1.79 1,500 2003
France 1.65 30,000 2003
Table 1 (cont’d) Gun ownership and murder ratesNation Murder rate
(per 100,000)Gun ownership (guns per100,000)
Murder rate year
Denmark 1.21 18,000 2003
Holland 1.20 300 2002
Greece 1.12 11,000 2003
Switzerland 0.99 16,000 2003
Germany 0.99 10,000 2003
Luxembourg 0.90 0 2002
Norway 0.81 36,000 2001
Austria 0.80 17,000 2002
Europe: Gun Ownership and Murder Rates (Table 1)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
0
5
10
15
20
25
Gun
s per
100,0
00
Mur
der r
ate p
er 10
0,000
Murderrate Gunsper100,000
Statistics? We’ve got statistics!
• “Statistics can be made to prove anything - even the truth.” • ~Author Unknown
Banning handguns
• Restricting access to handguns does not correlate with lower murder rates
• Countries that ban handguns typically have higher murder rates than neighboring countries
Table 2 Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nations
Nation Handgun policy
Murder rate(per 100,000)
Year
Belarus Banned 10.4 Late 1990s
Poland Allowed 1.98 2003
Russia Banned 20.54 2002
Table 2 cont’d Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nationsNation Handgun
policyMurder rate(per 100,000)
Year
Russia Banned 20.54 2002
Finland Allowed 1.98 2004
Norway Allowed 0.81 2001
Explanatory Note to Table 3• It bears emphasis that the following data
come from a special U.N. report whose data are not fully comparable to those in Tables 1 and 2 because they cover different years and derive from substantially differing sources.
Do ordinary people murder?
• Table 3 shows Eastern European countries with descending order of murder rate
•No apparent correlation between murder and civilian firearms ownership
Table 3 - Eastern EuropeGun ownership and murder rates
Nation Murder rate (year) Rate of gun ownership
Russia 20.54 [2002] 4,000
Moldova 8.13 [2000] 1,000
Slovakia 2.65 [2000] 3,000
Romania 2.50 [2000] 300
Macedonia 2.31 [2000] 16,000
Hungary 2.22 [2003] 2,000
Table 3 (cont’d) - Eastern EuropeGun ownership and murder rates
Nation Murder rate (year) Rate of gun ownership
Finland 1.98 [2004] 39,000Poland 1.79 [2003] 1,500Slovenia 1.81 [2000] 5,000Cz. Republic 1.69 [2000] 5,000Greece 1.69 [2000] 11,000
Eastern Europe Gun Ownership and Murder rates
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
0
5
10
15
20
25
Russia Moldova Slovakia Romania Macedonia Hungary Finland Slovenia Poland CzechRepublic
Greece
Gun
ow
ners
hp r
ate
Mur
der r
ate
Soure: Kates-Mauser Table 3
Murderrate
Gunownershiprate
ZZZZZZZ
• “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable.”• ~Author Unknown
Explanatory Notes for Next Chart
• Civilian firearms ownership (shown by red line) increase from left to right. Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Study on Homicide, 2011
• Homicide rates (shown by vertical blue bars) from the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2007
• In general, nations with higher gun ownership rates (found at right) are associated with lower homicide rates
Homicide and firearms in Europe
0.0#
2.0#
4.0#
6.0#
8.0#
10.0#
12.0#
0.0#
5.0#
10.0#
15.0#
20.0#
25.0#
30.0#
35.0#
40.0#
45.0#
50.0#
Romania#
Lithu
ania#
Polan
d#Ne
therlan
ds#
Hungary#
Bulga
ria#
UK#an
d#Northern#Irelan
d#Uk
raine
#Re
public#o
f#Mold
ova#
Belar
us#
Slovakia
#Po
rtugal#
Irelan
d#Albania
#Ru
ssian
#Fede
raMo
n#Estonia
#Spain
#Ita
ly#Malt
a#De
nmark#
Slovenia
#Luxembo
urg#
Czech#R
epub
lic#
Belgium
#Bo
snia#and#H
erzegovin
a#Latvia#
CroaMa
#Greece#
Mon
tene
gro#
Maced
onia#
Icelan
d#Ge
rmany#
Austr
ia#France#
Norw
ay#
Swed
en#
Serbia#
Finlan
d#Sw
itzerlan
d#
Numbe
r'of'Fire
arms'p
er'10
0'peo
ple'
Homicide
'rate'pe
r'100
,000'p
opula7
on'
Sources:'Homicide'rates,'UNODC;'Civilian'firearms'es7mates,'Swiss'Small'Arms'Survey''
Civilian'Firearms'and'Homicide'Rates''Europe,'2008'
Homicide#rate#
Civilian#firearms#
Notes, Table 41. Based in general on U.N. DEMOGRAPHIC YEARBOOK (1998) as reported in David C. Stolinsky, "America: The Most Violent Nation?" MEDICAL SENTINEL v. 5 (# 6 2000) 199-201. It should be understood that, though the 1998 YEARBOOK gives figures for as late as 1996, the figures are not necessarily for that year. The YEARBOOK contains the latest figure each nation has provided the U.N. which may be 1996, 1995, or 1994.
2. The Swiss homicide figure Stolinsky, supra, reports is an error because it combines attempts with actual murders. We have computed the Swiss murder rate by averaging the 1994 and 1995 Swiss National Police figures for actual murders in those years given in R.A.I. Munday & J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) at p. 268.
Annual Death Rate From Mass Public Shootings(January 2009 - December 2015)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Dea
th R
ate
per M
illio
n Pe
ople
Source: John Lott, Crime Prevention Research Center
United States
Guns and Homicide in North America
Civilian Guns per 100,000 population
Homicide rate
Canada 36,349 1.78
United States 89,116 5.62
Mexico 9,709 13.94
Homicide Rates, Canada and USA(Standardized at 1991)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sorces:StatisticsCanada,HomicideSurvey,FBIUCRCrimeintheUnitedStates
Canada USA
More firearms, far fewer firearms fatalities
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1930 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: WISQARS CDC
United States: Unintentional firearms fatalities
Firearms Safety training makes a difference
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Statistics Canada: Causes of Death (Catalogue 84-208)
Canadian Unintentional Firearm Fatalities
More guns, more death?
• Does access to firearms by civilians increase murder rates and suicide rates?
• No apparent correlation between total intentional death rate and civilian firearms ownership
Banning guns does not reduce murder rates
Irish murder incidents and 1972 handgun ban
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Num
ber
of m
urde
r in
cide
nts
Source: Garda Stochana Annual Reports
Fig. 11. Murder Trend in the Republic of Ireland
De facto handgun ban
Jamaican murder rates and 1976 firearm ban
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Rat
e pe
r 10
0,00
0 po
pula
tion
Source: Professor A. Francis, University of the West Indies (2001)
Fig. 7. Murder Trend in Jamaica
Firearms Banned
Conclusions
• Available data do not support link between civilian firearms ownership and murder or suicide rates
• Available data do not support effectiveness of restrictive firearms laws in reducing murder or suicide rates
• Thank you!
Statistics can be frightening
Homicide and 1996 Handgun Ban in England and Wales
English Police numbers balloon after 2001
Is the United States uniquely violent?
• Table 4 shows countries in descending order of combined murder and suicide rates
• The United States does not have the highest intentional death rate. It falls midway in this collection
Table 4 – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation Suicide Murder Combined ratesRussia 41.2 30.6 71.8Estonia 40.1 22.2 62.3Latvia 40.7 18.2 58.9Lithuania 45.6 11.7 57.3Belarus 27.9 10.4 38.3Hungary 32.9 3.5 36.4Ukraine 22.5 11.3 33.8Slovenia 28.4 2.4 30.4Finland 27.2 2.9 30.1
Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation Suicide Murder Combined ratesDenmark 22.3 4.9 27.2Croatia 22.8 3.3 26.1Austria 22.2 1.0 23.2Bulgaria 17.3 5.1 22.4France 20.8 1.1 21.9Switzerland 21.4 1.1 24.1Belgium 18.7 1.7 20.4United States 11.6 7.8 19.4Poland 14.2 2.8 17.0
Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation Suicide Murder Combined rates
Germany 15.8 1.1 16.9
Romania 12.3 4.1 16.4
Sweden 15.3 1.0 16.3
Norway 12.3 0.8 13.1
Holland 9.8 1.2 11.0
Italy 8.2 1.7 9.9
Portugal 8.2 1.7 9.9
Spain 8.1 0.9 9.0
Greece 3.3 1.3 4.6