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WORLDWIDE NGV UPDATE :GROWTH & TRENDS
Working Party on GasUnited Nations
Palais Nations, Geneva20 January 2010
Presented by: Jeffrey Seisler
on behalf of:
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Overview of the Presentation• General ‘state of the NGV union’ worldwide- NGV growth- Fuelling stations- Vehicle availability• Road map of developments and potentials,
including L-NGVs (& L-CNG) and biomethane in vehicles
• NGV challenges faced by the gas industry worldwide
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World NGV GrowthVehicle Numbers & % Growth Rate
9,439,549
7,546,176
5,647,3144,687,203
3,850,6573,254,841
2,309,974
10,890,717
15
25
3430
2218
41
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
NGV Growth (%)Updated Dec 2009: Data from Gas Vehicles Report
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Data source: The GVR, December 2009
World CNG Fuelling Station Growth
5,4826,666
7,8429,077
10,647
12,21914,169
16,27822
18 1617 15 16
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% A
nnua
l Gro
wth
Rat
e
Fuel
ling
stat
ions
YearsFS FS % Growth
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Projections of NGV GrowthIGU Triennium Report 2006-2009
Natural Gas for VehiclesPresented 5-9 October 2009
World Gas Conference, Buenos Aires
• Several scenarios based upon 10% target of total vehicle fleet
• Different rates of oil price increases• 2-3% vehicle fleet growth
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Projected World NGV Growth to 2030[business as usual scenario]
Total NGV car park: Business As Usual scenario
512
29
53
76
104
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
equi
vale
nt N
GV
s
Russian Federation & C.I.S.
Latin America and the Caribbean
North America
Middle East
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Africa
Total:
Natural Gas for Vehicles (NGV), International Gas Union 2009, Working Cmte. 5 Sub Cmte. 3 Final Report
Million Equivalent NGVs
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
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NGV TECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE
• Technology is commercial in many parts of the world• More OEM Products available than any other
alternative fuel vehicles– ~65 Manufacturers worldwide producing 295+
vehicle models & engines (outside China)– ~53 Chinese OEMs Making 72 LDV models & 29
HDV models• Some countries are shifting away from retrofits in
favor of OEM NGVs
Updated January 2010
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VW Passat TSI EcoFuel(Turbo Milestone)
Turbo charging is widely recognized ‚tipping point‘ for wide acceptance of light duty diesel vehicles....and a similar impact on NGVs is expected
ource: Volkswagen AG
The Latest NGV of 2009
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OEM Leaders Speak Favorably about NGVs
• “Methane gas is by far the most accessible fuel as an alternative to diesel.” Lars Mårtensson, Environmental Director of Volvo Trucks.
• “Natural gas is the only real, immediate alternative to petrol.” Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat Group & Chrysler Group.
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Some Customers Agree…and help drive the OEMs
• AT&T Commits to 8,000 Natural Gas Vehicles – $350 Million, March 10, 2009 | USA, Dallas
• Largest ever US NGV Commitment• AT&T ’sends signal’ to auto makers
$565 Million over 10 Years Reduces Carbon Emissions by 211,000 Metric Tons
• 1,000 new or saved jobs for next five years
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L-NGV Markets Will Grow with LNG Global Trading
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LNG VEHICLES
Cummins Westport ISL-G (LNG) Engine
LNG Garbage Trucks (Barcelona)
Mercedes LNG Econic (NL)
LNG gas turbine: RussiaSource: Russian Railways, Moscow, Russia
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LNG-Fuelled Vehicles
NorwayDistribution & Ferries
Fueling the ferry Tupolev LNG Plane
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LNG for Port Applications
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LNG FUELLING STATIONS: USA
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LNG & CNG Fuelling station Lleida, Spain(One of 3 in Spain)
CNG Dispenser
LNG Dispenser
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M6
M56
CHive LNG REFUELLING NETWORK UK
M48M4
M5
M25
M40 9
11
31
2620
1
42
38 A1
Lesmahagow
Wolverhampton
Bristol
Carlisle
Castleford
Flamstead Shepshed
LondonderryTebay
A1M
23
M1
M62 Lymm
Ilkeston
10M74
Shepshed
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LNG FUELLING STATIONSCHINA
1ST Chinese LNG station: Designed for 100 buses per day
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Fueling Station Option…with L-CNG
(Liquefied-to-compressed natural gas)• Flexibility of supply
(liquid & gaseous at same facility)
• Pump required; no compressor (gasification to CNG at 200 bar)
• Off-pipeline station development SHAANXI L-CNG Demonstration Project
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IANGV Advocates International Fuelling Station Signage
• Advocated as UN ‘Consolidated Resolution’ in March 2010
• Ultimately to be part of Int’l Treaty on Road Signage as a permanent, approved road sign (with CNG & LPG signage)
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Biomethane: NGVs are Part of a Renewable
Energy Strategy
(Energy Relevance....i.e. “methane sex appeal”)
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RENEWABLE BIOMETHANEMultifaceted Solution to Multifaceted Problems
• Feedstock from various waste products– Agricultural (animal, plant & wood: not food supply!)– Sewage from water purification– Urban waste
• Biogas feedstock conversion efficiencies 40-70%• Injected into natural gas grid or supplied locally• Can reduce <100% CO2 emissions compared to
gasoline car on a well-to-wheel basis• Potential to replace 20% of petroleum in European
transport sector by 2030• Production infrastructure required!!
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Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction of Biomethane Fuel Chains
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Biogas(manure)
Biogas(energycrops)
SNG(wastewood)
CNG gasoline diesel
GH
G e
mis
sion
s (W
TT a
nd c
arbo
n co
nten
t of f
uel)
in [g
CO
2 eq
v./M
J fu
el]
-187% -55% -65% -19%
Source: Concawe/EUCAR 2003, Wuppertal Institute et al. 2006
-GHG balance is dominatedby biomass chain:
-Fermentation of liquid manureavoids CH4 emissions of alternative manure disposal and, thus, receives high GHG bonus
negative GHG emissions (-187%)!
-Cultivation of energy cropsinduces energy use and GHGemissions (incl. N2O)
net emission reduction (-55%)compared to fossil options
-Use of waste wood is favourablefor SNG balance
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RENEWABLE BIOGAS-to-BIOMETHANE The Environmentally ‘Closed Loop’
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Liquefied-Bio-Gas (LBG) in Sweden
LCO2 & LBG Fuelling Stations
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(Bio)Landfill Gas-LNG Production (USA)
Gas composition/quality is an ‘open’ issue, especially for landfill gas entering the pipeline network.
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CHALLENGE OF BIOGAS INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS• Investment in bio-digesters required
…starting NOW• Permits, local citizen input, and
construction takes time (but ‘learning curve’ experiences can speed development)
• Steady supply of feedstock is essential• Biomethane applications provide
energy companies with avenues to meet renewable obligations & earn carbon credits
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NGV TRENDS & CONCLUSIONS
….INTO THE FUTURE
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SUMMARY: WORLD WIDE TRENDS• CNG will continue to grow; maybe not at the
same rate as the past few years, but in many countries, very steadily
• LNG popularity will help drive the L-NGV market
- China; Australia; Thailand; US; Spain; Russia; Netherlands, Korea, etc.
• Biogas-to-biomethane will advance, but will be dependent on public commitment to new waste management infrastructure (enhanced by but not necessarily due to gas industry support)
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Powertrain Landscapes 2007 & 2020
NGVs = 11-14% in 2020
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ConclusionsThe future for NGVs is positive!
• Long-term price advantage compared to oil and bio-liquids will be the main driver.
• Countries must focus on success factors.• Government policies must be long-term &
balanced among the alternative fuels.• Natural gas industry would benefit from a
clearer, long term strategic vision of their product’s flexibility, particularly in the transport sector:
- CNG - Cars - LNG - Trucks & Buses- L-CNG - Marine applications - Biogas-Biomethane - Railway applications
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• Continued focus on environmental and climate benefits.
• Harmonized standards must be advocated continually.
• Maintain vigilance and concern for safety (especially cylinders and fuelling).
• Better communications about NGV: Yes, vehicles can run on clean burning natural gas!!
ConclusionsThe future for NGVs is positive!
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12th Annual IANGV Conferencewww.ngv2010roma.com
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International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles – IANGVwww.iangv.orgBrett Jarman
Executive [email protected]
Martin SiefertVice President – Govt and International Affairs
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WORLDWIDE NGV UPDATE :GROWTH & TRENDS
Working Party on GasUnited Nations
Palais Nations, Geneva20 January 2010
Presented by: Jeffrey Seisler
on behalf of: