INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
WORLD FOOD SECURITY:
NEW RISKS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
Joachim von Braun
Ottawa, March 23, 2004
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
2003/4 Strategic Issues facing IFPRI
1. Future food systems risks and challenges
2. Political system changes and governance problems
3. International trade and investment
4. Consumer and food industry-driven food systems
5. Deficiencies in pro-poor food and agricultural technology
6. Health crises, diet change, nutrition
7. Gender inequality and other discrimination
8. Pro-poor management of natural resources
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Hunger in Developing World, with
and without China
920
817
780798
616 624 635663
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1979-81 1990-92 1995-1997 1999-2001
Millio
ns U
nd
ern
ou
rish
ed
Developing World
Developing w orld
w ithout China
Source: FAO, SOFI 2003
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Chronic Undernutrition in Africa
75%
70%
33%
17%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
DR Congo
Burundi
Sub Saharan
Africa
Developing
World
% of undernourishment
Source: FAO SOFI 2003
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Old risks and New risks
for food security
Old: Production, Stockholding,
Availability, Prices, “bad” Policies,
“Shocks”
New: Complex Vulnerabilities of the
Poor
THE RISK: Combinations of old and
new Risks
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New risks
for food and nutrition security Conflicts: High correlation between conflict
and food insecurity.
HIV/AIDS: Affects 29.4 million people in SSA.
Natural Resources Degradation: Declining soil fertility, declining access to water - food and nutrition crisis?
Hidden Hunger: 3.5 billion in developing world are iron deficient. Towards “Harvest Plus”
Many of the poor more vulnerable
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Old? World Grain Market:
Cereal Production 1960-2003
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
mil
lio
n t
on
s
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Old? World Cereal Stocks, 1960-2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
millio
n t
on
s
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Old? World Cereal Prices, 1998-2004
Rice International Price
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
U$S
/To
n
Maize and Wheat International Prices
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
U$S
/To
n
Maize
Wheat
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Scenarios of IMPACT Model: 2050
Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural
Development
Policy Failure Scenario:
Trade and Political Conflict, Rise in
Protectionism Worldwide
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Scenario:
Adverse Technology/Natural Resource
Interactions
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World Cereal Area
600
700
800
900
1997 2015 2030 2050
Millio
n h
aProgressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
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World Cereal Production
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1997 2015 2030 2050
mil
lio
n m
tProgressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
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Price of Maize
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
1997 2015 2030 2050
US
$/m
etr
ic t
on
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
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Global per capita MEAT Demand
15
30
45
60
1997 2015 2030 2050
kg
/cap
ita
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
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Number of Malnourished Children,
Developing World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1997 2015 2030 2050
Millio
n c
hild
ren
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management
Failure
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Increased commitment to improve
food security
International Initiatives
• Millennium Development Goals
• World Bank Rural Strategy 2002
Regional Initiatives
• NEPAD
National Governments
• Most food insecure countries have initiated new policies to enhance food security in their countries
• But little change in their budgets
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Trade: WTO negotiations
Subsidies in developed countries
High tariffs and other trade barriers
in developed and developing countries
Distort agricultural trade and hinder
progress on food security.
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Visible Northern Trade Barriers
US and EU
Agricultural tariffs: 4-5 times those
on manufactured goods
Tariffs escalate on high value and
processed goods
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Hidden Northern Trade Barriers
Sanitary, and phytosanitary,
environmental, and social
requirements can often act as non-
tariff barriers
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Trade: How to re-start ?
Reform of WTO rules and northern
agricultural policies is not enough.
Developing-country governments
must also reform their own market
and trade policies.
Agriculture Exports are a dynamic force
for poverty reduction
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IMPACT: Net Cereal Trade
Developing Countries
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
1997 2015 2030 2050
mil
lio
n m
t
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management
Failure
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Success Stories
Small farmers in
• East Africa
• Central America
• Vietnam
have entered global fruit and vegetable
markets
Access to Supermarkets?
Less poverty and more staple food
production.
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IFPRI’s Strategy
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2003 global and country-level research
and outreach
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IFPRI’s Food Policy Research Framework
Influence
on policies
Impact on
poor
people
Research
Capacity
strengthening
Policy
communication
Partners, CGIAR,
stakeholders
Policymakers,
media, opinion
leaders, and
IFPRI
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Strategic Directions
Global Food
System
Functioning
Global and
National
Food System
Governance
Global Food
System
Innovations
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New ways of business: decentralized
IFPRI
San JoseSan JoseAddis AbabaAddis Ababa
NewNew DelhiDelhi
BeijingBeijing
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Selected 2003/4 Research & Outreach
HarvestPlus (with CIAT etc.)
Program for Biosafety Systems
Pathways out of Poverty and Safety
Nets
Trade policy (global, regional, national)
IFPRI-ILRI Livestock market policy
NEPAD cooperation in Africa (MOU)
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Facilitating Innovation and Quality
External Reviews of IFPRI
Ex-ante reviews of projects
Impact assessment research at IFPRI
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Capacity Strengthening
General approach:
Training and capacity strengthening
integrated with our research
Exploring new types of activities:
Collaborative Masters Program agr. econ. in
Africa
CGIAR-Global Open University on
Agricultural and Food (planning)
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Policy Communications
Policy Dialogues (e.g. food safety;
biotech)
All –Africa IFPRI 2020 Conference
in Uganda
China-India dialogue
Meeting policymakers one-on-one
Reaching out through media
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Research Report
Food Policy Communication
Synthesizing IFPRI’s research
Expert
Insider
Interested
Layperson Press Release
Issue Brief
Food Policy Report
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IFPRI-Canada Cooperation
IDRC helped established IFPRI 30
years ago
Canadian experts – IFPRI’s Board
of Trustees
Canadian Researchers – IFPRI staff