PWIG Approved 2/5/14
Work Group Recommendation January2014
February2014
March2014
April2014
May2014
June2014
July2014
August2014
September2014
October2014
November2014
December2014
January2015
February2015
March2015
April2015
May2015
June2015
July2015
Requires OWIB
Adoption
Requires Legislation
State Budgeting Dates
Budgeting Calendar released
Final Agency Requested
Budgets
Incumbant Governor's
Budget
Governor-Elect Budget
Legislative Dates01/15-01/17 02/03-02/28
03/09 Constitutional
Sine Die 05/28-05/30 09/15-09/17 12/8-12/10
1/5/2015 Session Begins Session Session Session Session Session
Dates to Consider01/13 LC return deadline; 01/21
LC drop deadline
02/12 Revenue forecast
05/20 Primary Election
11/04 General Election
Direct an interagency workgroup to develop a system-wide, state-level balanced score card by June 2014
In partnership with Local Workforce Investment Boards, create a process to cascade state level metrics to the local level so that local
boards can monitor performance and prioritize strategies and resources to maximize results for job seekers.
Convene workforce system partners to conduct a system wide review of existing workforce and employmetn related programs,
services and policies for persons living at or below the poverty line and those chronically un/underemployed.
x
Direct the workforce system partners to develop a statewide workforce policy for persons with disabilities, persons living at or
below the poverty line and the chronically un/underemployed that establishes a goals for improved workforce services. 5) Direct the workforce system system agencies to submit a biennial report to
the Governor charting the progress in achieving outcomes for persons with disabilities, persons living at or below the poverty line
and the chronically un/underemployed as well as documenting special initiatives and efforts to implement best practices.
x
Budget Process (STEELE)
Update the Oregon Employment Department (OED) as Oregon's lead agency for workforce programs, including the relocation of the state WIA Title I-B and Oregon Youth conservation Corps programs
to OED. (Pending 2015 Legislative Session)
x
Enhance the role of the OWIB withing the workforce system, including making it the advisory committee to a newly redefined Oregon Employment Department, through legislation in the 2014
Legislation Session.
x x
Dedicate professional staff for the OWIB located at OED. x x
Establish clear collaborative relationships with the other state advisory bodies whose missions include workforce development. x
Strengthen the role sof the LWIBS by entering into charters that clearly spell out the roles and responsibilities of the LWIB as well as
the commitments of the state agencies and the OWIB in supporting the LWIB.
Approve a dispute resolution process to resolve disagreements between state agencies and the LWIBs.
Create a workforce system innovation and capacity building function within OED. x
Develop and integrate information systems to ensure that the state agencies have the tools necessary for service delivery. x x
Challenge state agencies and LWIBs to find local opportunities to pilot new models of service delivery across the workforce system
programs. x
Balanced Scorecard (BLUE)
Special Populations (PURPLE)
OWIB Transformation
(GREEN)
LWIB Recharter/ Redistrict (GOLD)
Innovation Function (TEAL)
Workforce Systems Innovation Strategies
Direct an interagency workgroup to develop a balanced score card by 6/14
Enhance Role of OWIB within workforce system
Dedicate Professional OWIB staff at OED
Establish clear collaborative relationships with the other state advisory bodies
Strengthen LWIBs role - agencies to enter into charters w/roles & responsibilities, state agencies & OWIB commitment ; Direct the LWIBs & workforce agencies create compacts that clarify performance for local community programs
Approve an agency/ LWIB dispute resolution process
Create a workforce system innovation and capacity building function within OED
Develop & integrate information systems to ensure that the state agencies have the tools necessary for service delivery
Create a process for a state-level matrix w/ LWIBs
Conduct a system-wide review with workforce partners
Agencies develop aligned statewide workforce policy for special populations Workforce system agencies to submit a biennial report on achieving outcomes special populations
Agencies and LWIBS to identify and pilot new service delivery models phase I
Agency budget preparation for OED tansition to lead agency for workforce programs to reflect Governor's direction
Agencies and LWIBS to identify and pilot new service delivery models phase II
Oregon Workforce Investment Board 2014 Legislative Update
Key Workforce Bills
HB 4018 - Moves Department of Community Colleges and Workforce Development into Higher Education Coordinating Commission, effective July 1, 2015. The bill also establishes the Task Force on Integrating the Department of Community Colleges and Workforce Development into the Higher Education Coordinating Commission. HB 4058 - Amends the 40-40-20 education goals to include apprenticeship programs registered with State Apprenticeship and Training Council. SB 1527 – Directs the Oregon Business Development Department, in coordination with local workforce investment boards, to contract with private or public entities to develop Dislocated Worker Training Program as pilot program to enable unemployed and underemployed engineers and industry professionals in bioscience and manufacturing traded sector industries to be reemployed in Oregon. Allocates $250,000 in Lottery Funds. SB 1566 – Workforce Redesign Bill. Key changes include:
• Declares state public policy to promote coordinated provision of education, employment, economic development and job training.
• Adds a member of a local workforce investment board to the state board (OWIB).
• Requires the OWIB to consult and collaborate with organizations serving persons with disabilities, living in poverty, and the chronically unemployed and underemployed.
• OWIB works with local boards to increase efficiencies and “align workforce programs and services with local needs.”
• Gives the OWIB new responsibilities: o Primary advisory committee to the Employment Department (OED). o Coordination with Oregon Education Investment Board and Oregon Business
Development Commission. o Hold state workforce agencies and local workforce boards accountable for meeting
performance goals and system outcomes.
• Gives OWIB authority to enter into performance compacts with local boards.
• Adds requirements for local workforce plans, including having the plan be submitted to and approved by the OWIB.
• Requires OED to support efforts of local workforce boards through labor market information activities.
Questions - Melissa Leoni, Government Relations Manager ([email protected] or 503-947-1732)
Other Workforce Agency Bills
Community Colleges and Workforce Development HB 4116 - Directs CCWD and HECC to jointly establish grant program for purpose of distributing moneys to community colleges to increase number of underserved, low-income, and first-generation college-bound students who enroll in community college and make progress toward degree or certificate. HB 4019 – Directs community colleges to provide an internet website link for students to access the institution’s fact sheet regarding affordability and value of the institution SB 1524 - Directs Higher Education Coordinating Commission to examine viability of program allowing students who graduated from high school in state or who completed grade 12 to attend community college for specified period without paying tuition and fees. SB 1574 - Clarifies that standards for dual credit programs must establish manner by which students in grades 9 through 12 may earn course credit for both high school and community college or public university. Employment Department HB 4023 - Permits private, nonpublic employer to give preference in hiring and promotion of employees to veterans and certain spouses.
Questions - Melissa Leoni, Government Relations Manager ([email protected] or 503-947-1732)
Job Opportunities for Many: Broad-Based Job Growth in Oregon
Industry and Occupational Employment Projections Through 2022
Oregon Workforce Investment BoardMarch 14, 2014
The Top Ten Things You Should Know About Oregon’s 2012-2022 Employment
Projections
1. Oregon will add 258,000 jobs over the next ten years, a 15.3% increase over the 2012 levels.
The projected growth will take us far beyond our pre-recession employment levels.
∗ 258,000 jobs over ten years is well above the 100,000 jobs added in the past 10 years.
∗ 15% growth over ten years is stronger than the 6% growth seen over the past decade
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2022
His
toric
al a
nd P
roje
cted
Em
ploy
men
t
Oregon to Add 258,000 Jobs by 2022
Source: Oregon Employment Department
Private-sector growth (17%) will outpace public-sector growth (9%).
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2012 2022
Private and Public Shares of Total Employment Stable
Public
Private83%
16%
84%
17%
∗ A key theme of most projections: Things Change Slowly.
∗ Continuing population growth.∗ The need to replace baby boom retirees (even though
many will work longer than planned).∗ Continued growth in health care, in part because of
those aging baby boomers.∗ Strong growth in construction, recovering from large
recession losses.
Key Factors
6
2. All industry sectors are projected to add jobs.
Policy implication: job opportunities across a wide range of industries.
Generally, Oregon’s largest industries will add the most jobs.
2012 2022 Change % ChangeTotal payroll employment 1,685,300 1,943,200 257,900 15%Professional and business services 201,200 248,400 47,200 23%Health care and social assistance 204,100 249,400 45,300 22%Trade, transportation, and utilities 311,200 345,100 33,900 11%Leisure and hospitality 169,800 198,300 28,500 17%Local government 180,500 201,200 20,700 11%Construction 70,100 90,300 20,200 29%Manufacturing 172,100 191,200 19,100 11%Financial activities 90,800 103,000 12,200 13%Natural resources and mining 52,700 62,000 9,300 18%Other services 58,300 65,700 7,400 13%State government 80,200 87,400 7,200 9%Private educational services 33,900 39,900 6,000 18%Information 32,300 34,700 2,400 7%Federal government 28,100 26,600 -1,500 -5%Source: Oregon Employment Department
Oregon Long-Term Employment Projections by Major Industry, 2012-2022
Computer systems design, nursing and residential care facilities, and ambulatory care facilities drive the growth in the professional/business and health sectors.
∗ Federal government is the only industry projected to decline, largely due to losses in postal employment
-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Federal government
Information
Private educational services
State government
Other services
Natural resources and mining
Financial activities
Manufacturing
Construction
Local government
Leisure and hospitality
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
All Oregon Private Industry Sectors Expected to Add Jobs, 2012-2022
Source: Oregon Employment Department
Construction will grow the fastest, at 29 percent.
∗ Fast construction growth due in part to a late rebound from deep recessionary job losses
∗ Slowest-growing industries include information (7%) and state government (9%)
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Federal government
Information
State government
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Manufacturing
Local government
Other services
Financial activities
Leisure and hospitality
Natural resources and mining
Private educational services
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Construction
All Oregon Private Industry Sectors Expected to Add Jobs, 2012-2022
Source: Oregon Employment Department
3. Even with growth, some industries will not make it back to their pre-recession employment levels.
Policy implication: there may not be “jobs for everyone” in the industries from which they came.
Despite its strong growth, construction will not return to its pre-recession employment level by 2022. Nor will manufacturing, financial activities, or information.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2022
His
toric
al a
nd P
roje
cted
Em
ploy
men
t
Oregon Industries Not Returning to Pre-Recession Level by 2022
Manufacturing
Financial activities
Construction
Information
Source: Oregon Employment Department
On a brighter note, many industries will regain and surpass their pre-recession employment levels.
Health care and private educational services never really had a recessionary slump.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2022
Oregon Industries Growing Past Pre-Recession Level by 2022
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Leisure and hospitality
Private educational services
Other services
Source: Oregon Employment Department
Hist
oric
al a
nd P
roje
cted
Empl
oym
ent
4. In addition to roughly 260,000 job openings due to economic growth, there will also be almost 400,000 openings from what we call “replacements”.
Policy implication: Workforce planning is not just about training workers for “new jobs”. It’s also about planning for retirements and other departures.
While there will be many job openings in high-wage, high education jobs, there will be even more in lower-wage jobs. That’s – to some extent – just the nature of the economy.
Oregon Employment Projections Summary, 2012-2022Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research
Occupational Group2012
Employment2022
EmploymentEmployment
ChangePercent Change
Growth Openings
Replacement Openings
Total Openings
Service 278,684 328,718 50,034 18.0% 50,151 85,767 135,918Professional and Related 275,206 316,636 41,430 15.1% 41,531 57,736 99,267Office and Administrative Support 262,782 294,706 31,924 12.1% 33,462 56,177 89,639Sales and Related 170,771 193,313 22,542 13.2% 22,626 49,718 72,344Management, Business, and Financial 157,916 183,279 25,363 16.1% 25,454 32,033 57,487Health Care 129,125 155,220 26,095 20.2% 26,095 25,671 51,766Transportation and Material Moving 119,382 133,875 14,493 12.1% 14,493 27,892 42,385Production 107,665 120,965 13,300 12.4% 13,531 22,120 35,651Construction and Extraction 58,708 74,062 15,354 26.2% 15,354 9,839 25,193Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 61,723 70,199 8,476 13.7% 8,511 14,506 23,017Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 39,501 46,701 7,200 18.2% 7,382 10,465 17,847Total All Occupations 1,683,320 1,941,712 258,392 15.4% 260,771 391,924 652,695
15
5. There will be openings in almost all occupations, either due to growth or replacements or both.
Policy implication: We need to find the right “career development” balance – individuals follow their dreams, guided in part by reasonable and practical “real world information”.
The two categories adding the most jobs reflect a typical economy’s diversity.
Top two occupations with most openings in services: ∗ Combined Food
Prep and Serving Workers
∗ Waiters and Waitresses
Top two occupations with most openings in professional:∗ Teacher Assistants∗ Postsecondary
Teachers
0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Construction and Extraction
Production
Transportation and Material Moving
Health Care
Management, Business, and Financial
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative Support
Professional and Related
Service
Growth Openings vs. Replacement Openings in Oregon, 2012-2022
Growth OpeningsReplacement Openings
17
Oregon Employment by Total Projected Job Openings, 2012-2022
Standard Occupational Classification Title2012
Employment2022
EmploymentGrowth
OpeningsReplacement
OpeningsTotal
OpeningsRetail Salespersons 55,158 62,553 7,395 18,866 26,261Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 35,481 42,017 6,536 13,548 20,084Waiters and Waitresses 27,757 32,690 4,933 13,354 18,287Cashiers 33,574 36,147 2,573 14,515 17,088Registered Nurses 30,677 35,636 4,959 5,948 10,907Office Clerks, General 32,305 35,912 3,607 6,787 10,394Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 22,297 25,506 3,209 6,907 10,116Customer Service Representatives 22,627 26,519 3,892 6,157 10,049Farmworkers and Laborers for Crops, Nurseries, and Greenhouses 20,287 24,013 3,726 6,155 9,881Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 24,204 28,669 4,465 4,554 9,019
Many occupations with the most openings are low-wage, low-skill, low-education.
“That they are what they are, do not blame me!”
18
Even the fastest-growing occupations are not generally among the highest-wage, highest-education jobs.
“That they are what they are, do not blame me!”
Fastest Growing Occupations in Oregon with More than 500 Employed, 2012-2022
Standard Occupational Classification Title2012
Employment2022
EmploymentEmployment
Change Percent Change Total Openings
Roofers 1,963 2,738 775 39.5% 1,186
Physician Assistants 931 1,291 360 38.7% 527
Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 2,390 3,294 904 37.8% 1,232
Painters, Construction and Maintenance 3,306 4,529 1,223 37.0% 1,724
Physical Therapist Aides 605 826 221 36.5% 355
Medical Equipment Repairers 592 807 215 36.3% 380
Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners 889 1,211 322 36.2% 444
Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers 1,130 1,539 409 36.2% 516
Pest Control Workers 892 1,214 322 36.1% 564
Personal Financial Advisors 869 1,172 303 34.9% 443
19
6. Placeholder: Are the projected job openings low-, medium-, or high-wage?
We are still working on this part of the analysis. Last time, it looked like this:
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Oregon Employment Openings2010-2020 Openings, 2011 Wages
HighWage (>$50,000)
Medium Wage ( $33,000 - $49,999)
Low Wage (<$33,000)
7a. Only one-third of the projected openings require more than a high school education for entry into the occupation.
Remember: many of the job openings are for sales and service occupations.
∗ A total of 653,000 openings are expected
∗ 216,00 have some post-secondary education as a level most workers need to enter an occupation
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Doctoral or professional degree
Master's degree
Associate's degree
Postsecondary training (non-degree)
Bachelor's degree
Less than high school
High school diploma or equivalent
Oregon Growth vs. Replacement by Typical Entry-Level Education 2012-2022
Growth OpeningsReplacement Openings
7b. Roughly 55% of the projected job openings require post-secondary education in order for the applicant to be “competitive”.
Policy implication: We need to decide whether we will strive to train Oregonians to the level most workers need to enter an occupation, the competitive education requirements, or the “what other people in the job have” education requirements.
In our view, the competitive education level means an employer would be excited to see the applicant.
∗ A total of 653,000 openings are expected
∗ 355,000 require some post-secondary education as a competitive requirement
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Doctoral or professional degree
Master's degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Postsecondary training (non-degree)
High school diploma or equivalent
Oregon Percent Growth vs. Percent Replacement in Typical Competitive-Level Education, 2012-2022
Growth OpeningsReplacement Openings
24
Here’s another view of the projected openings by education level. This is an important topic.
Doctoral or professional degree
3%Master's degree
7%
Bachelor's degree17%
Associate's degree9%
Postsecondary training (non-
degree)19%
High school diploma or equivalent
45%
Occupational Openings by Typical Competitive-Level Education, Oregon 2012-2022
∗ Total openings include both growth AND replacement
8. The Portland and Bend areas are projected to grow the fastest.
Policy Implication: How do we help – is there a way to help –Oregon’s more remote rural areas experience better employment and economic growth?
Portland, Bend, and Eugene are projected to grow at or above the statewide pace. All other areas grow more slowly.
2012 2022 Change Change %Multnomah and Washington 695,300 809,800 114,500 16%Clackamas 138,630 160,830 22,200 16%Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson 73,620 85,760 12,140 16%Lane 142,300 164,000 21,700 15%Marion, Polk, and Yamhill 183,200 208,700 25,500 14%Douglas 34,350 39,170 4,820 14%Gilliam, Hood River, Sherman, Wasco, and Wheeler 26,230 29,810 3,580 14%Jackson and Josephine 100,010 113,080 13,070 13%The Oregon Consortium - Oregon Workforce Alliance 292,240 328,500 36,260 12%Benton, Lincoln, and Linn 96,970 108,740 11,770 12%Clatsop, Columbia, and Tillamook 35,100 39,210 4,110 12%Klamath and Lake 24,030 26,740 2,710 11%Baker, Union, and Wallowa 18,080 19,800 1,720 10%Morrow and Umatilla 35,130 38,400 3,270 9%Grant, Harney, and Malheur 17,550 19,060 1,510 9%Coos and Curry 27,790 29,740 1,950 7%
Source: Oregon Employment Department
Faster Job Growth Projected in Portland Area and Central Oregon, 2012-2022
Some very rural areas have super-slow growth.
Faster Job Growth Projected in Portland Area and Central Oregon, 2012-2022Statewide Growth = 15%
Projected Growth
More than 14%
Less than 10%
10% to 14%
9. We project that Oregon will grow faster than the United States as a whole.
Oregon and the U.S. have the same top three industries by projected growth rate.
Total: 15.3% vs 10.8%
Same Fast Growth:∗ Health care∗ Construction∗ Professional and
business services
Oregon and U.S. Projections Differ Most:∗ Manufacturing∗ Information
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Total
Construction
Professional and business services
Health care and social assistance
Educational services
Leisure and hospitality
Mining and logging
Financial activities
Other services
Transportation and warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
State and local government
Retail trade
Information
Utilities
Federal government
Projected Industry Job Growth for the U.S. and Oregon, 2012-2022
National Projections
Oregon Projections
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Oregon Employment Department
10. These projections feed many other products, services, data series:
Career information, including CAREERS magazine
Occupational exploration tools on QualityInfo.org
Occupational Prioritization for Training at QualityInfo.org/olmisj/op4t
Community college training program approvals
Graham Slater, Research AdministratorOregon Employment Department
[email protected](503) 947-1212
To find this presentation online, go towww.QualityInfo.org
and use the search box to look up my name
Join the conversation:OregonEmployment.blogspot.com
Twitter @OrEmployment
Certified Work Ready Communities in Oregon Oregon joined more than thirty states utilizing the NCRC on January 25, 2011, with Governor Kitzhaber and the support of key business and workforce leaders. The Oregon program supports statewide and regional efforts to build a more skilled workforce. To date, thousands of Oregonians have earned a certificate and hundreds of businesses of all sizes, in a variety of industries, are supporting the certificate by preferring the NCRC in their hiring practices.
Oregon's CWRC effort focuses on county and regional certifications to strengthen and support "labor sheds" that reach beyond single county boundaries. (More at www.OregonWorkReady.com)
1 Data Sources: ACT website (www.WorkReadyCommunities.org); PRISM (OED), CCWD
CWRC and NCRC
The CWRC program works in concert with the National Career Readiness Certificate (NCRC), and serves
as a validating tool that a community has a skilled labor force for targeted industries and to recruit and expand buisnesses.
Oregon’s NCRC helps job applicants stand out from the crowd, and assures employers that applicants
have the foundational skills needed to be successful on the job.
2 Data Sources: ACT website (www.WorkReadyCommunities.org); PRISM (OED), CCWD
How do Oregonians measure up?
The NCRC verifies three foundational skills – Applied Mathematics, Reading for Information, and Locating Information. Four levels of certificates are issued:
• Platinum - scores at least a level 6 in each of the three core areas.
• Gold - scores at least a level 5 in each of the three core areas.
• Silver - scores at least a level 4 in each of the three core areas.
• Bronze - scores at least a level 3 in each of the three core areas.
3 Data Sources: ACT website (www.WorkReadyCommunities.org); PRISM (OED), CCWD