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Michael H. Fox, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor
Colorado State University Dept of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences
ERHS 550 May 5, 2017
Whyweneednuclearpower.com
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Baseload electricity needed ◦ Renewable energy does not provide this
Reduce carbon dioxide emissions ◦ Problem of global warming from CO2
Reduce dependence on coal ◦ Major source of CO2 causing global warming ◦ Environmental problems with mining ◦ Deaths from accidents and air pollution
Concerns about natural gas and fracking Nuclear power can safely wean us off of coal
and reduce dependence on natural gas
IPCC 2007 Fig. TS-1. Gas trapped in Antarctic ice sheets analyzed from ice cores. Shaded areas are interglacial periods.
Deuterium is a proxy for temperature 6⁰ C
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Data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
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2 C
on
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trati
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(p
pm
)
Glo
bal
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pera
ture
An
om
ali
es (°C
) C
om
pare
d t
o 1
901-2
000 a
vera
ge
Year
Black line is 5 yr moving average
Global temp affected by:
◦ El Niños
◦ Volcano eruptions
Recent “hiatus” caused by: ◦ Low solar activity
◦ Warming of deep ocean
◦ Aerosols from coal
◦ High volcanic activity
◦ Long period of La
Niñas
y = 0.0166x + 0.164
R² = 0.8187
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Tem
pera
ture
Change (°C
)
Atm
ospheri
c C
O2
(p
pm
)
Year
Mt. Pinatubo
El Chichon
Strong El Niños
Data from NOAA and Mauna Loa
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Energy-related CO2 emissions (2014) ◦ US: 5.5 Gt ◦ China: 9.4 Gt ◦ World: 33.7 Gt
Coal CO2 emissions (2014) ◦ US: 1.5Gt ◦ China: 7.5 Gt ◦ India: 1.3 Gt ◦ World: 14.5 Gt
Natural Gas CO2 (2014) ◦ US: 1.45 Gt ◦ Russia: 0.9 Gt ◦ World: 7.0 Gt
75% of world’s CO2 comes from burning fossil fuels 40% of total energy in US used to produce electricity
Data from EIA 2017
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MM
T C
O2
Year
CO2 Emissions from primary energy
World
China
United States
India
Russia
Japan
Germany
Data from EIA
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Fig 1. IAEA Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2015 (WEO 2014 New Policies Scenario)
Electricity Consumption by Source 2016
Electricity from renewable sources 2016
EIA Monthly Energy Review Mar 2017
Coal, 34.3%
Nuclear, 22.3%
Natural gas, 27.3%
Renewable energy, 14.8%
Petroleum, 0.6%
E
Hydro 44.2%
Geothermal, 2.9% Solar, 6.0%
Wind, 37.8%
Biomass, 9.1%
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nuclear, 60.1% Hydroelectric,
17.6%
Geothermal, 1.2%
Solar, 2.4%
Wind, 15.1%
Biomass, 3.6%
Colorado Electricity by Source – EIA 2013
Fort Collins Electricity by Source – PRPA 2014
Natural Gas-
Fired
20.0%
Coal-Fired
63.4%
Hydro
electric
2.3%
Other
Renewables
14.3%
Natural gas
0.2%
Coal-fired
74.2%
Hydropower
19.1%
Wind and
RECs
4.8%
Unspecified
purchases
1.7%
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*Colorado data are for 2015
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
US
Colorado
Ft Collins
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydropower
Renewable
Other
EIA Monthly Energy Review, March 2017
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Fig 3. IAEA Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2015
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Coal provides baseload power ◦ Needed 24 hours a day
Nuclear power also provides baseload ◦ It could be increased to
remove need for coal
Wind and solar can only contribute to intermediate and peak load ◦ Too intermittent and
unreliable for baseload
Shively & Ferrare: Understanding Today’s Electricity Business, 2010
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Location ◦ Best in Midwest and offshore
◦ Not where most people live
◦ Need transmission lines
Intermittency ◦ Capacity factor 27% in 2010
◦ EIA projects 35% by 2020
◦ Needs backup power
Turbine lifetime ◦ ~20 years
Footprint is huge ◦ About 500 sq mi wind
farm to generate same energy as 1 average nuclear power plant
◦ Visual impact ◦ Road infrastructure
Doesn’t provide baseload power
Provides 5.6% of electricity in US (2016)
Production tax credit of 2.2 cents/kWh
Where people live Where the wind blows
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Wyoming – PRPA; Wind blows mostly in winter
Rated at 6 MkWh/mo
Minnesota Spring 2010; Hourly wind output vs load
Source: DOE
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Smoky Hills Wind Farm in Kansas 26,000 acres, 250 MW capacity
Location ◦ Best in Southwest ◦ Not where most people
live ◦ Need transmission lines
Intermittency ◦ Varies through day ◦ Clouds, snow, etc ◦ Efficiency about 12% ◦ Capacity factor 25% by
2020 ◦ Needs backup power
Solar panel lifetime ◦ 20-25 years ◦ Lose 1%/yr in efficiency
Footprint is huge ◦ About 50 sq mi solar
farm to generate same energy as 1 average nuclear power plant
◦ Environmental impact
Doesn’t provide baseload power
Provides 0.89% of US electricity (2016)
Highly subsidized
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Where people live Where the sun shines
San Luis Valley CSU Solar Village
My grid-tie system My cabin
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Began operation in 2014 Nominal capacity of 377 MW Efficiency of 29% ◦ Average output of 109 MW
3,500 acres of desert Three 459 foot tall towers Cost $2.2 billion ◦ Federal-guaranteed loan for 80% of cost ◦ Premium price guarantee for electricity
New nuclear plant produces 1200 MW at a cost of about $7-9 billion
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Theoretical avg monthly output based on rating ◦ 275,300 MWh
Avg monthly output based on 29% capacity factor ◦ 79,850 MwH
Actual avg monthly output ◦ 46,910 MWh
◦ Efficiency 17.0 % 0
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J-14 M-14 A-14 O-14 J-15 M-15 A-15 N-15 J-16 M-16 A-16 O-16 J-17
MW
h
Date
Data from EIA
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Invert
er
kW
h/d
a
Date
Theoretically could generate 60 kWh/da
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Coal mining1 ◦ >2,000/yr 1900-1930 This happens currently in China
◦ >1,000/yr 1931-1947 ◦ Average 451/yr in 1950s ◦ Average 142/yr in 1970s ◦ Average 43/yr in 1990s ◦ Average 33/yr in 2000s ◦ Black lung/lung cancer/respiratory disease thousands per year in US Hundreds of thousands per year in China
US nuclear reactors over 40+ years ◦ None
1Source: US Dept of Labor Mine Safety and Health Administration www.msha.gov
West Virginia: mountaintop removal and valley fill
Wyoming: Powder River Basin
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Advantages ◦ Half the CO2 of coal (maybe) Depends on fugitive emissions
◦ US has a plentiful supply ◦ Can replace coal plants ◦ Cheap but volatile
Disadvantages ◦ Methane from leakage 25 times greater GWP (global warming potential) than CO2
◦ Fracking Potential air and water issues
◦ Used in all sectors of energy economy Competition for resource
◦ Deaths from accidents
Replace coal for baseload power ◦ Run 24/7 with >90% capacity factor
No carbon dioxide emissions Build them where energy needed ◦ Small footprint – about 1/3 sq mile
Lots of power – average about 1,000 MWe Proven technology ◦ Boiling water reactors ◦ Pressurized water reactors
New designs even safer for future ◦ Generation III: cooling for several days without power ◦ Small Modular Reactors
Operating lifetime ◦ 60 years
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Country % electricity Reactors operable
Under construction
Planned/ proposed
USA 19.7 99 4 16/19
France 72.3 58 1 0/1
Japan 2.2 42 2 9/3
Russia 17.1 35 7 26/22
S. Korea 30.3 25 3 8/0
China 3.6 36 21 41/174
India 3.4 22 5 20/44
Canada 15.6 19 0 2/0
World 11.5 447 59 170/372
Data from World Nuclear Association 5/2/2017
*Japan temporarily shut down their reactors in 2011. 2 restarted by early 2017.
Where people live Where reactors are
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Three Mile Island (PA) Wolf Creek (KS)
Hydropower avoided 84 Gt
Nuclear avoided 64.5 Gt
Other renewables avoided 8.6 Gt
Fig. 7, IAEA Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2015
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Since 1975, nuclear power has avoided 26 billion tons of CO2
Since 1990, nuclear power has avoided 21 billion tons of CO2
Each year nuclear power avoids about 860 million tons of CO2
My calculations, based on assuming coal would have been used if not nuclear.
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Source: EIA, Levelized cost and levelized avoided cost of new generation sources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015, 6/3/15
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Energy Source
New Capacity GW
Cost $Billions
*Yearly Output TWh
Lifetime Output TWh
Wind 64 109 140 4,200 (30 yrs)
Solar 59 92 78 3,120 (40 yrs)
Nuclear 9.4 31 71 4,200 (60 yrs)
Boisvert, W. Not Dead Yet, Breakthrough Institute, 4/22/2016.
*Assumes capacity factors of 25% for wind, 15% for solar, 90% nuclear
Energy Source
New Capacity GW
#Cost $Billions
*Yearly Output TWh
Lifetime Output TWh
Wind 32.5 42 63 1,890 (30 yrs)
Solar 18.3 24 24 960 (40 yrs)
Nuclear 7.63 24 58 3,420 (60 yrs)
#Assumed cost of $1,300/kW wind & solar, $3,100/kW nuclear
*Assumes capacity factors of 25% for wind, 15% for solar, 90% nuclear
Boisvert, W. Not Dead Yet, Breakthrough Institute, 4/22/2016.
Note: Cost of Plant Vogtle is about $7,700/kW, including financing
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Radiation from nuclear fuel cycle ◦ Mining, milling,
enrichment ◦ Very small <0.1 mSv
Nuclear waste ◦ On-site storage Cooling pools Dry cask storage
◦ Geological disposal Yucca mountain?
◦ Recycle used fuel Reuse Pu in MOX fuel France, Russia, Japan,
Germany, UK do it
Major accidents ◦ Three Mile Island (1979) No deaths or injuries
◦ Chernobyl (1986) only accident to cause loss of
life 31 immediate deaths 19 more by 2004 from
uncertain causes 15 kids from thyroid cancer ~4,000 over a lifetime
◦ Fukushima (2011) due to tsunami that killed
over 19,000 people A few people may ultimately
die of cancer
Over 14,500 reactor years of operation
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~600 coal-fired plants produce 14.2 quads (Quadrillion BTUs) of energy ◦ produce 1.5 Gt CO2
99 nuclear reactors produce 8.4 quads
~150-175 additional reactors could replace the coal-fired plants ◦ New reactors are about 1200 MWe compared to current 950
MWe average
55 GWe new nuclear needed by 2035 to maintain 20% electricity share due to reactor retirements*
This would reduce environmental damage from mining, global warming from reduced CO2 and loss of life from mining accidents and air pollution
Data from EIA for 2017 * Data from WNA
At least double nuclear power capacity to reduce/eliminate coal fired plants ◦ Carbon tax necessary to make nuclear competitive
Replace oldest coal plants with natural gas ◦ Reduce fugitive emissions and environmental hazards from
fracking
Increase fuel efficiency of cars to 55 mpg average (new CAFE standards) ◦ Increase hybrids and electric vehicles
◦ Need more electricity to power EVs
◦ Hydrogen cars???
Get 20% of electricity from wind and solar
Increase energy efficiency in houses, factories, and public buildings
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Some day the earth will weep, she will beg for her life, she will cry with tears of blood. You will make a choice, if you will help her or let her die, and when she dies, you too will die. John Hollow Horn, Oglala Lakota, 1932
With climate change, those who know the most are the most frightened. With nuclear power, those who know the most are the least frightened. Variously attributed