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December 11, 2012
WHERE SHOULD WE EXPAND AIRPORT CAPACITY IN METRO LA? Jacki Murdock, Transportation and Environmental Planner
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¡ Trends in Air Travel ¡ Air Travel in SCAG Region ¡ Why Airport Expansion? ¡ Consolidate or Disperse ¡ Drawbacks of dispersed expansion ¡ LAX expansion Recommendation: SCAG should focus
efforts at expanding LAX capacity
OVERVIEW
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¡ Airport travel is increasing for both passengers and goods § Air passenger travel increased 200% since 1980 § 347 million to 1.1 billion
§ Goods movement by air increased 180% since 1980 § On-time delivery market
¡ Hubbing- transferring flights § A more efficient system for airlines § Consolidated travel in airports allows more hubbing
GROWING TRENDS IN AIR TRAVEL
Source: Taylor, 2012; Federal Aviation Administration, 2011
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¡ Six Commercial Airports § 4 International § 2 Domestic
¡ Travel is concentrated at LAX
¡ LAX is the world’s busiest Origin/Destination airport § Third largest U.S. airport in
Million Annual Passengers (MAP)
¡ LAX serves two purposes: moving people and moving goods § 7th in the US in Air Cargo
AIR TRAVEL IN SCAG REGION
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, 2011
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¡ There is growing demand for air travel in Southern California § LAX is expanding 30%--78.9 more MAP
¡ The SCAG region needs to expand capacity… the question is where it should be done
¡ Two Options:
§ Consolidate expansion at LAX § Disperse expansion throughout the region
NEED TO ADD CAPACITY
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LAX Expansion—consolidated growth
Advantages: ¡ Economic Vitality ¡ Goods movement and
logistics Challenges: ¡ Environmental
Concerns ¡ Community opposition
A QUICK COMPARISON
Regional Expansion—dispersed growth
Advantages: § Economic benefits
across many municipalities
Challenges: § Health concerns
dispersed § Accessibility concerns
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¡ Affects more people § More people exposed to externalities § Community around LAX less affected by increased growth
¡ Makes mitigation more difficult § Focus mitigation at one location
¡ Goods movement and infrastructure is dif ficult to disperse § Logistics dependent on close proximity to airports
¡ Regional dispersal was attempted in the 1990s and failed (Erie 2004)
§ El Toro: great desire and opposition to commercialize § Palmdale: experienced expansion but stopped service in 2008 § Other regional airports have limited space to expand
PITFALLS OF REGIONAL DISPERSAL
Why not expand regional airport traffic?
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¡ Established as the International airport in Southern California ¡ For airlines: consolidation means concentrated benefits
§ Airline trend towards “hubbing” § High fixed costs of airlines means consolidation can lower average
costs ¡ Important for Economic Growth and Competitiveness
§ Goods movement- established land use patterns surrounding LAX § Jobs-28,550 directly associated with LAX
¡ Concentrates transportation investments § Dense origins and destinations facilitate transit use
BENEFITS OF LAX EXPANSION
Sources: LAWA, 2004; LACEDC, 2012; & Taylor, 2012
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¡ Increasing capacity at LAX will have concentrated costs ¡ Environmental Concerns
§ Pollution § LAX was Los Angeles’ 3rd largest source of smog during
1990’s § Noise pollution § Peak period— planes take off and land every 2 minutes
¡ Community Opposition § Increased congestion on the local road network in
surrounding communities § Incompatible surrounding land uses and environmental
justice
BARRIERS TO LAX EXPANSION
Source: Erie, 2004; LAWA, 2004; Taylor, 2012
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¡ Moderate Expansion at LAX § Master Plan Alternative D (LAWA 2004):
§ No new runways § New center taxi space and larger runways
¡ Promote ground transportation improvements § LAX Specific Plan Amendment Alternative 9 (LAWA 2012) § Regional connectivity of public transportation directly to airport § Automated People Mover with connection to:
§ Metro Green and Blue Rail lines § Intermodal Transportation Facility § Consolidated rental car facility
PHYSICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
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¡ Concentrate growth in air travel at LAX ¡ Encourage development of more fuel efficient planes ¡ Increase hubbing to increase air travel without ground side
transportation ¡ Transform land use changes surrounding LAX
§ Support the voluntary buyout and relocation of impacted individuals § Re-zone surrounding land to promote industries that benefit from
proximity to air freight (Karsado 2006) ¡ Set growth targets on impacts rather than MAP proxy
§ CO2/passenger § Decibels/hour
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
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¡ Erie, S. (2004). Internat ional airpor t development at stal l speed, in Global iz ing L.A . : Trade, Infrastructure, and Regional Development. Stanford, CA: Stanford Universi ty Press.
¡ Federal Aviat ion Administrat ion 2012. Passenger and Cargo Data. Retr ieved from: http://www.faa.gov/airpor ts/planning_capacity/passenger_al lcargo_stats/
¡ Kasarda, J . (2006) . The r ise of the aerotropol is . The Next American City. Retr ieved from http://americancity.org/magazine/ar t ic le/the-r ise-of - the-aerotropol is -kasarda
¡ Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporat ion 2012. Los Angeles Internat ional Airpor t in 2011 . Retr ieved from: http://www.laedc.org/repor ts/LAX_2011_FINAL.pdf
¡ Los Angeles World Airpor ts (LAWA) 2004. LAX Master Plan. Retr ieved from http://laxmasterplan.org/pub_finalMP.aspx
¡ Los Angeles World Airpor ts (LAWA) 2012. LAX Specif ic Plan Amendment Study. Retr ieved from: http://www.lawa.org/laxspas
¡ Los Angeles World Airpor ts (LAWA) 2012. Stat ist ics . Retr ieved from: http://lawa.org/welcome_lax.aspx?id=798
¡ Taylor, B. (2012). The r ise of air t ravel and airpor ts : Impl icat ions for urban areas [UP 255 lecture] .
REFERENCES
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QUESTIONS?