![Page 1: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?
Anchorage, AlaskaNovember 18, 2019
www.postsecondaryanalytics.comnate.johnson@postsecondaryanalytics.com
Postsecondary Analytics423 East Virginia Street
Tallahassee, Florida 32301850-294-0672
Nate Johnson
![Page 2: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Presentation made possible with financial support from Strategy Labs, funded by Lumina Foundation for Education.
Views expressed are mine alone.
![Page 3: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Overview
• Understanding Alaska viewpoints on postsecondary education and funding
• Aligning funding with postsecondary goalso US and Alaska goals for attainmento Funding trends
• Managing the boom and bust cycle
![Page 4: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Get Out Your Phones
![Page 5: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Switch to Poll Everywhere Online
• Slides with results will be included in archive version of the presentation
![Page 6: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Aligning Funding and Goals
• Alaska and US Higher Education Goals
• Funding trends in US and Alaska
![Page 15: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Alaska, Like Most States, Has Ambitious Attainment Goal
65% by
2025
Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal).
Lumina’s Goal: 60% of Americans hold degrees, certificates or other high-quality postsecondary credentials by 2025
![Page 16: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
And, Like Most States, a Long Way to Go!
Source: Le, C., Pisacreta, E. D., Ward, J. D., & Margolis, J. (2019, June 12). Setting a North Star: Motivations, Implications, and Approaches to State Postsecondary Attainment Goals. https://doi.org/10.18665/sr.311539
![Page 17: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
AK Attainment Varies Geographically
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Associate or Higher Degree. Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata, summarized by Postsecondary Analytics
![Page 18: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
AK Attainment Varies Geographically
Attainment of Adults Age 25-64, 2012-16. Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata, summarized by Postsecondary Analytics
![Page 19: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
AK Attainment Varies by Race/Ethnicity
Attainment of Adults Age 25-64, 2012-16. Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata, summarized by Postsecondary Analytics
![Page 20: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
AK Attainment Varies by Race/Ethnicity
Attainment of Adults Age 25-64, 2012-16. Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata, summarized by Postsecondary Analytics
![Page 21: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Attainment Rates Lowest for those Who Stay in State
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Associate or Higher Degree. Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata, summarized by Postsecondary Analytics
![Page 22: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Especially Alaska Natives
Percent of Alaska Natives Age 25-64 with Associate or Higher Degree. Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata, summarized by Postsecondary Analytics
![Page 23: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Appropriations and Completions Peaked Around 2015
![Page 24: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
National Trend Not Like Alaska’s
![Page 25: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Tuition Accounts for Smaller Share of Revenue than in US
Net Tuition as Share of Total Educational Revenues. Source: 2019 State Higher Education Finance Survey, SHEEO
![Page 26: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Permanent Fund and Postsecondary Education are Primary Discretionary Expenditures
Sources: 2019 State Higher Education Finance Survey, SHEEO. Alaska Department of Revenue, Summary of Dividend Application and Payments, accessed November 2019.
![Page 27: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Official Projections Include Modest Growth in Key Age Groups
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2000 2005 2010 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
15-19 20-24 25-29
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor, Middle Series Population Projections 2017-2045, and Historical Population by Age and Sex 2000-2010.
![Page 28: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Some Enrollment Patterns Correlate Closely with Economic Cycles
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Pct.
Pt. C
hang
e in
May
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
Cha
nge
in F
all F
ull-T
ime
Equi
vale
nt E
nrol
lmen
t at
Publ
ic 2
-Yea
r Col
lege
s
Pct. Change in Fall FTE CC Enrollment Pct. Pt. Change in May Unemployment Rate
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Digest of Education Statistics
![Page 29: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Where Next?
2020 2040
![Page 32: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Linear Planning v. Multiple Futures
• Planning for multiple possible futures
• 3-4 plausible alternative scenarios
• Relevant example, Research Futures
![Page 33: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Elsevier/Ipsos Project on Research
• Brave Open World
• Tech Titans
• Eastern ascendance
![Page 34: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Revenue Strategies
• Diversification consistent with mission
• Emphasizing unique assets
• Maintaining fiduciary responsibility for all Alaskans, present and future
• Maximizing outside/federal resources
![Page 35: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Diversification Consistent with Mission
• Out-of-state / international students
• Online / hybrid learning
• Lifelong learning
• Sponsored research / service
![Page 36: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Emphasizing Unique Assets
• Geography
• Personnel
• Patents / physical assets
![Page 37: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Maintaining Fiduciary Responsibility
• for tuition/fee and tax/PF funds
• to present and future Alaskans
• recognize that postsecondary education is not always the best investment
![Page 38: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Maximizing external/federal resources
• Private philanthropy, consistent with mission
• Federal resourceso Pell grantso SNAP benefitso Other federal programs for individuals and
institutionso Tax benefits
![Page 39: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Maximizing Federal Tax Advantages
• American Opportunity and Lifelong Learning Credits (18,420 Alaskans received $30.4 million in 2017)
• Finance postsecondary ed, as much as possible, with pre-federal tax dollars
![Page 40: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Maximizing Federal Tax Advantages
Less tax advantaged
(more expensive for Alaskans)
More tax advantaged
(less expensive for Alaskans)
Tuition over $3,500 Tuition under
$3,500
Reduction in PF dividend
Personal state sales/income tax
Charitable gifts
State business / payroll tax
![Page 41: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Spending Strategies
• Keep the lights on where they need to be on
• Consolidate, share services
• Treat revenue as non-recurring, invest in long-term, countercyclical assets
• Create reserve funds
• Link funds to students
• Plan across budget cycles
![Page 42: WHERE NEXT FOR POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN ALASKA?. Sources: Lumina Foundation, Statewide Educational Attainment Goals: A Case Study. 2018. (Map). Alaska CAN website (Goal). Lumina’s](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042308/5ed53002e8bd06277669697e/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Questions?
Discussion?