Download - WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
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WHEN WILL THIS OLD
BULL MARKET END?
Paul Desmond, President
Lowry Research Corporationwww.lowryresearch.com
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1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1987 1990 1994 1998 2002 2008 20??
-10%
?
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
THE HISTORY OF BEAR MARKETS
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• 1929 DJIA losses not recovered until 1955
• 1962 losses set prices back to 1958
• 1973-74 decline set prices back 13 years
• 2000-2003 bear market cut portfolios in half.
• 2007-2009 losses set S&P 500 back 15 years
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WE’VE BEEN DEALING
WITH THE APPROACH OF
BEAR MARKETS FOR MORE
THAN A HUNDRED YEARS,
WHY DON’T WE HAVE
SOME BETTER ANSWERS?
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CAUSE AND EFFECT
THE CAUSES ARE ALWAYS
CHANGING
THE EFFECTS ARE
AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT
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The LAW of
SUPPLY and
DEMAND
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Chapter One of Virtually Every
Economics Textbook states,
“The Law of Supply and Demand
is the Foundation …..
…..the Starting Point…..
of ALL economic analysis.”
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THE LAW OF
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
If there is more Demand for a
commodity than there is a
Supply of that commodity, the
price Will Rise.
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THE LAW OF
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
If there is a greater Supply of
a commodity than there is a
Demand for it, the price
Will Fall.
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THE LAW OF SUPPLY
AND DEMAND
ONLY DEALS WITH
EFFECTS
COMPLETELY IGNORES
CAUSES
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SUPPLY AND
DEMAND
IS A
UNIVERSAL
LANGUAGE
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AT EVERY MARKET TOP,
FIRST, DEMAND BEGINS TO
FADE, CAUSING PRICES TO
WEAKEN.
SECOND, WEAKENED PRICES
CAUSE SUPPLY TO EXPAND.
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SELECTIVITY AT MAJOR MARKET TOPS
TOP DAY % STOCKS @ % AT OR < 2% % OFF 20% % OFF 30%
FOR DJIA NEW HIGHS OF NEW HIGHS OR MORE OR MORE
09/03/1929 2.30%
LOWRY RESEARCH
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SELECTIVITY AT MAJOR MARKET TOPS
TOP DAY % STOCKS @ % AT OR < 2% % OFF 20% % OFF 30%
FOR DJIA NEW HIGHS OF NEW HIGHS OR MORE OR MORE
09/03/1929 2.30% 15.62% 31.84% 18.77%
LOWRY RESEARCH
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IN 1927 TWO BANKERS FROM CLEVELAND TRUST DEVELOPED
THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE
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1928
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1929
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1961 1962
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1972 1973
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1987
Dow Jones Industrial Average
NYSE Advance-Decline Line
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1999 2000
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2007
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THE KEY TO
DETECTING MAJOR
MARKET TOPS IS TO
OBSERVE SIGNS OF
INCREASINGLY
EXTREME
SELECTIVITY.
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MARKETS ARE NOT HOMOGENEOUS.
A SINGLE “ALL-ISSUES” ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE HIDES A GREAT AMOUNT
OF IMPORTANT INFORMATION.
LOWRY RESEARCH
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➢ SMALL-CAP BREADTH USUALLY WEAKENS FIRST . . .
➢ THEN MID-CAP BREADTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN . . .
➢ BIG-CAP BREADTH IS VIRTUALLY ALWAYS THE LAST TO WEAKEN.
LOWRY RESEARCH
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SO, WHERE ARE WE NOW?
LOWRY RESEARCH
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IN CONCLUSION….
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BASED ON THE 88 YEAR HISTORY OF THE LOWRY ANALYSIS, THE PROBABILITIES FAVOR
AT LEAST ANOTHER SIX MONTHS OF FURTHER GAINS BEFORE
THE FINAL HIGHS IN THE DJIA AND S&P 500 (BIG-CAP) INDEXES
SEPT. 25, 2017
LOWRY RESEARCH
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BUT, NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN TO
SLOWLY CULL STOCKS AS THEY STOP PARTICIPATING IN THE UPTREND……
INITIALLY REINVESTING IN STRONG LARGER-CAP STOCKS……
AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN BUILDING A HEAVILY DEFENSIVE STRATEGY.
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Lowry Research
If You Would Like A Copy of . . . .
“The Warning Signs of Major Market Tops”
…Just Drop Off Your Business Card….. Or,
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1929-1930