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West Texas Energy Consortium Region: TenCounty-Level Economic Impacts of Oil andGas ActivitiesCenter for Community and Business Research at The University of Texas at San Antonios Institute for
Economic Development
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Acknowledgements
This report was performed by the University of Texas at San Antonio Institute for Economic
Developments Center for Community of Business Research. The project was supportedwith funding
from the West Texas Energy Consortium. Any finding, conclusions or opinion are those of the authors
and not necessarily those reflected by The University of Texas at San Antonio or the West Texas Energy
Consortium.
Javier Oyakawa, M.A., M.Sc., Lead Investigator
Thomas Tunstall, PhD, Principal Investigator
Research Assistants: Gina Conti, Hector Torres, Ricardo Avalos, Jason Hernandez, Binbin Wang, John
Rodriguez, Neeraj Ravi, Feihua Teng, and Christina Valerino.
Hisham Eid, GIS specialist
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Contents
1.Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................... 2
2. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 8
3. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 17
The West Texas Energy Consortium and the Severance Tax ................................................................. 17
4. Fisher County .......................................................................................................................................... 20
Overview of Fisher County ....................................................................................................................... 20
Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ........................................................................................ 21
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................... 22
Job Growth Comparison .......................................................................................................................... 23
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison ............................................................ 24 Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ......................................................... 25
Population Projections ............................................................................................................................. 27
Total Employment Forecast for Fisher County in 2014-2022 .................................................................. 28
Educational Attainment ............................................................................................................................ 29
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax........................................................................................................ 30
Employment Changes .............................................................................................................................. 31
Commuting Patterns ................................................................................................................................ 32
Economic Impacts in 2012 ....................................................................................................................... 33
Economic Impacts in 2022 ....................................................................................................................... 34
5. Glasscock County ................................................................................................................................... 35
Overview of Glasscock County ................................................................................................................ 35
Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ........................................................................................ 36
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................... 37
Job Growth Comparison .......................................................................................................................... 38
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison ............................................................ 39
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ......................................................... 40
Population Projections ............................................................................................................................. 42
Total Employment Forecast for Glasscock County in 2014-2022 ............................................................ 43
Educational Attainment ............................................................................................................................ 44
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax........................................................................................................ 45
County Budgets ........................................................................................................................................ 46
Employment Changes .............................................................................................................................. 47
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Commuting Patterns ................................................................................................................................ 48
Economic Impacts in 2012 ....................................................................................................................... 49
Economic Impacts in 2022 ....................................................................................................................... 50
6. Howard County ........................................................................................................................................ 51
Overview of Howard County .................................................................................................................... 51Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ........................................................................................ 52
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................... 53
Job Growth Comparison .......................................................................................................................... 54
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison ............................................................ 55
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ......................................................... 56
Population Projections ............................................................................................................................. 58
Total Employment Forecast for Howard County in 2014-2022 ................................................................ 59
Building Permits ....................................................................................................................................... 60
Educational Attainment ............................................................................................................................ 61
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax........................................................................................................ 62
County Budgets ........................................................................................................................................ 63
Employment Changes .............................................................................................................................. 64
Commuting Patterns ................................................................................................................................ 65
Economic Impacts in 2012 ....................................................................................................................... 66
Economic Impacts in 2022 ....................................................................................................................... 67
7. Irion County ............................................................................................................................................. 68
Overview of Irion County .......................................................................................................................... 68
Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ........................................................................................ 69
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................... 70
Job Growth Comparison .......................................................................................................................... 71
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison ............................................................ 72
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ......................................................... 73
Population Projections ............................................................................................................................. 75
Total Employment Forecast for Irion County in 2014-2022 ..................................................................... 76
Educational Attainment ............................................................................................................................ 77Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax........................................................................................................ 78
County Budgets ........................................................................................................................................ 79
Employment Changes .............................................................................................................................. 80
Commuting Patterns ................................................................................................................................ 81
Economic Impacts in 2012 ....................................................................................................................... 82
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Economic Impacts in 2022 ....................................................................................................................... 83
8. Martin County .......................................................................................................................................... 84
Overview of Martin County ....................................................................................................................... 84
Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ........................................................................................ 85
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................... 86Job Growth Comparison .......................................................................................................................... 87
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison ............................................................ 88
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ......................................................... 89
Population Projections ............................................................................................................................. 91
Total Employment Forecast for Martin County in 2014-2022 .................................................................. 92
Building Permits ....................................................................................................................................... 93
Educational Attainment ............................................................................................................................ 94
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax........................................................................................................ 95
Employment Changes .............................................................................................................................. 96
Commuting Patterns ................................................................................................................................ 97
Economic Impacts in 2012 ....................................................................................................................... 98
Economic Impacts in 2022 ....................................................................................................................... 99
9. Mitchell County ...................................................................................................................................... 100
Overview of Mitchell County ................................................................................................................... 100
Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ...................................................................................... 101
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................. 102
Job Growth Comparison ........................................................................................................................ 103
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison .......................................................... 104
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ....................................................... 105
Population Projections ........................................................................................................................... 107
Total Employment Forecast for Mitchell County in 2014-2022 .............................................................. 108
Building Permits ..................................................................................................................................... 109
Educational Attainment .......................................................................................................................... 110
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax...................................................................................................... 111
Employment Changes ............................................................................................................................ 112Commuting Patterns .............................................................................................................................. 113
Economic Impacts in 2012 ..................................................................................................................... 114
Economic Impacts in 2022 ..................................................................................................................... 115
10. Nolan County ......................................................................................................................................... 116
Overview of Nolan County ..................................................................................................................... 116
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Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ...................................................................................... 117
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................. 118
Job Growth Comparison ........................................................................................................................ 119
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison .......................................................... 120
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ....................................................... 121 Population Projections ........................................................................................................................... 123
Total Employment Forecast for Nolan County in 2014-2022 ................................................................. 124
Building Permits ..................................................................................................................................... 125
Educational Attainment .......................................................................................................................... 126
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax...................................................................................................... 127
County Budgets ...................................................................................................................................... 128
Employment Changes ............................................................................................................................ 129
Commuting Patterns .............................................................................................................................. 130
Economic Impacts in 2012 ..................................................................................................................... 131
Economic Impacts in 2022 ..................................................................................................................... 132
11. Reagan County ..................................................................................................................................... 133
Overview of Reagan County .................................................................................................................. 133
Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ...................................................................................... 134
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................. 135
Job Growth Comparison ........................................................................................................................ 136
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison .......................................................... 137
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ....................................................... 138
Population Projections ........................................................................................................................... 140
Total Employment Forecast for Reagan County in 2014-2022 .............................................................. 141
Building Permits ..................................................................................................................................... 142
Educational Attainment .......................................................................................................................... 143
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax...................................................................................................... 144
County Budgets ...................................................................................................................................... 145
Employment Changes ............................................................................................................................ 146
Commuting Patterns .............................................................................................................................. 147Economic Impacts in 2012 ..................................................................................................................... 148
Economic Impacts in 2022 ..................................................................................................................... 149
12. Scurry County ........................................................................................................................................ 150
Overview of Scurry County .................................................................................................................... 150
Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ...................................................................................... 151
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Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................. 152
Job Growth Comparison ........................................................................................................................ 153
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison .......................................................... 154
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ....................................................... 155
Population Projections ........................................................................................................................... 157Total Employment Forecast for Scurry County in 2014-2022 ................................................................ 158
Building Permits ..................................................................................................................................... 159
Educational Attainment .......................................................................................................................... 160
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax...................................................................................................... 161
County Budgets ...................................................................................................................................... 162
Employment Changes ............................................................................................................................ 163
Commuting Patterns .............................................................................................................................. 164
Economic Impacts in 2012 ..................................................................................................................... 165
Economic Impacts in 2022 ..................................................................................................................... 166
13. Sterling County ...................................................................................................................................... 167
Overview of Sterling County ................................................................................................................... 167
Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries ...................................................................................... 168
Population Growth Comparison ............................................................................................................. 169
Job Growth Comparison ........................................................................................................................ 170
Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison .......................................................... 171
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment ....................................................... 172
Population Projections ........................................................................................................................... 174
Total Employment Forecast for Sterling County in 2014-2022 .............................................................. 175
Educational Attainment .......................................................................................................................... 176
Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax...................................................................................................... 177
Employment Changes ............................................................................................................................ 178
Commuting Patterns .............................................................................................................................. 179
Economic Impacts in 2012 ..................................................................................................................... 180
Economic Impacts in 2022 ..................................................................................................................... 181
14.Appendices ............................................................................................................................................ 182Appendix A: County Budgets and Road Expenditures .......................................................................... 182
Appendix B: West Texas Consortium Hotel Occupancy Data ............................................................... 183
15. References ............................................................................................................................................ 186
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Executive Summary
The oil and gas industry in the core 10-county area of the WTxEC in 2012 had an impact close to $14.5
billion, supported nearly 21,450 full-time jobs, paid $1 billion in wages and salaries, generated almost$472 million in state revenues including $187 million in severance taxes added approximately $6.2
billion in gross regional product, and contributed nearly $447 million in local governments revenues.
By 2022, those impacts will grow to $20.5 billion in output, supporting 30,500 full-time jobs, paying $1.8
billion in wages and salaries, generating $701 million in state revenues including $334 million in
severance taxes creating close to $9.4 billion in gross regional product, and contributing about $664
million in local government revenues.
Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA. http://www.caliper.com/Center for Community and Business Research.
Taking into consideration low- and high-price scenarios, the impacts in 2022 could vary widely. This
study estimates scenarios where low prices of oil in the future could produce an output as low as $7.6
billion, and where high prices of oil could see enormous growth, as high as $34.3 billion. The ranges of
these figures are broad due to high variability in the prices of oil and gas, the challenges of forecasting
future oil and gas activities, changes in the number of wells per rig, and changes in productivity per well.
http://www.caliper.com/http://www.caliper.com/http://www.caliper.com/http://www.caliper.com/ -
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Low
Estimate Moderate Estimate
High
Estimate
Output $7,589 $20,524 $34,29
Employment 11,822 30,540 49,69
Payroll $714 $1,865 $3,04
Gross Regional Product $3,371 $9,434 $16,22
Estimated Local Government Revenues $226 $664 $1,19
Estimated State Revenue, incl. severance taxes $238 $701 $1,25
* 2012 dollars
Estimated Impacts for West Texas Energy Consortium
at the Regional Level 2022 in millions of dollars *
Total Impact Three Scenarios
Source: IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011.
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The effects across different counties are diverse. For 2012, in terms of output, the most affected
counties are Howard ($4.2 billion), Martin ($2.8 billion), and Scurry ($1.9 billion). For 2022, Howard
appears in first place ($4.4 billion), Reagan in second place ($4.3 billion), and Irion in third place ($3.2
billion). Fisher and Sterling counties appear to be affected the least among the 14 counties with $2.9
billion and $2.7 billion in 2012 and 2022, respectively.
Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
Total Output Impacts
County 2012 Total
Output Impact, in
millions of $
County 2022 Total
Output Impact,
in millions of $
Howard $4,238.9 Howard $4,461.0
Martin $2,863.2 Reagan $4,359.9
Scurry $1,903.4 Irion $3,238.9
Reagan $1,771.5 Martin $2,666.7
Glasscock $1,468.7 Glasscock $1,871.2
Irion $856.7 Nolan $1,484.7
Mitchell $727.0 Mitchell $1,080.8
Nolan $556.8 Scurry $564.6
Sterling $178.9 Fisher $384.9
Fisher $176.3 Sterling $383.2
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Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
In terms of employment, the most impacted counties in 2012 are Martin (4,610 full-time jobs), Scurry
(2,966 full-time jobs), and Howard (2,808 full-time jobs). For 2022, the three most impacted counties are
Reagan (5,131 full-time jobs), Irion (4,586 full-time jobs), and Martin (4,002 full-time jobs). Similar to the
output impacts, Sterling appears among the least impacted with 275 and 637 full-time jobs in 2012 and
2022, respectively. Something similar occurs to Fisher.
Total Employment Impacts
County
2012 TotalFull-Time
Employment
County2022 TotalFull-Time
Employment
Martin 4,610 Reagan 5,131
Scurry 2,966 Irion 4,586Howard 2,808 Martin 4,002
Reagan 2,600 Nolan 3,714
Glasscock 1,657 Howard 2,783
Nolan 1,640 Glasscock 1,884
Mitchell 1,348 Mitchell 1,810
Irion 1,247 Scurry 1,208
Fisher 394 Sterling 637
Sterling 275 Fisher 590
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Between the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2012, for the aggregate of all 10 counties,
employment increased by 737 jobs, a 2.20 percent increase. For the 10 counties, the highest growth rate
corresponds to other services (8.80 percent increase); followed by the natural resources & mining sector
(8.00 percent increase), and the manufacturing sector (7.80 percent increase).
Employment Changes in 10-County Region
2011 4thQuarter to 2012 4thQuarter
IndustryEmployment 2011
4thQuarter
Employment 2012
4th Quarter
Employment
Change
Percent Growth,
2011-2012
Other Services 894 973 79 8.80%
Natural Resources &Mining
4,910 5,304 394 8.00%
Manufacturing 2,029 2,187 158 7.80%
Leisure & HospitalityGroup
2,693 2,884 191 7.10%
Construction 2,213 2,338 125 5.60%
Education & HealthServices
9,219 9,333 114 1.20%
Trade, Transport. &Utilities
6,904 6,855 -49 -0.70%
Financial Activities Group 1,048 1,018 -30 -2.80%
Information 232 224 -8 -3.40%
Public Administration 2,474 2,319 -155 -6.30%
Professional Business &Other Services 1,105 1,023 -82 -7.40%
Total, All Industries 33,721 34,458 737 2.20%Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
Employment changes by the Texas Workforce Commission are based on establishments paying
employment insurance and do not include the self-employed. These statistics do not include the number
of workers living in hotels, RV parks, and man camps, among other lodging facilities.1
1These differences are discussed in Javier OyakawaAFrameworkfortheStudyandForecastofLaborForce,Employment,Population,Migration,andCommuteChangesintheEagleFordShale . Paper presented at the 44th
Annual Conference of the Urban Affairs Association. March 19-22, 2014, San Antonio, Texas.
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Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
The gross county product (GCP) impacts provide a better picture of the benefits obtained from oil and
gas activities because these values include only earnings and surplus, and do not double count them as
might happen with the output numbers. For 2012, in terms of GCP, the most impacted counties are
Martin ($1.3 billion), Howard ($1.1 billion), and Scurry ($985 million). For 2022, Reagan ranks first ($2.1
billion) Irion is second place ($1.5 billion), and Martin takes the third place ($1.3 billion).
Total Gross County Product Impacts
County
2012 TotalGross
County ProductImpact, in
millions of $County
2022 TotalGross
County ProductImpact, in
millions of $
Martin $1,388.1 Reagan $2,134.0
Howard $1,154.0 Irion $1,524.7
Scurry $985.0 Martin $1,385.3
Reagan $817.9 Howard $1,191.8
Glasscock $686.4 Glasscock $934.2
Irion $385.0 Nolan $757.9
Mitchell $343.4 Mitchell $557.0
Nolan $249.3 Scurry $296.9
Sterling $87.2 Fisher $198.1
Fisher $77.5 Sterling $186.2
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The estimated state revenue provides a better picture of the economic benefits that the state of Texas
gathered in 2012.This state revenue was then broken down by the amount gathered by each respective
county. For 2012, the counties with the highest estimated state revenue are Martin ($116 million),
Scurry ($85 million), and Glasscock ($61 million). Based on the predictions and calculations, the counties
with the highest estimated state revenue for 2022 are Reagan ($157 million), Irion ($117 million) and
Martin ($115 million).
Estimated State Revenue 2012 and 2022
County
EstimatedState
Revenue
2012,in
millions of $ County
EstimatedState
Revenue2022, in
millions $
Martin $115.7 Reagan $157.0
Scurry $85.1 Irion $117.3
Glasscock $61.8 Martin $114.9
Reagan $61.3 Glasscock $81.5
Howard $54.6 Nolan $58.0
Irion $31.6 Howard $52.6
Mitchell $28.7 Mitchell $48.3
Nolan $15.8 Scurry $22.1
Sterling $6.7 Fisher $17.1
Fisher $5.8 Sterling $12.6
Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
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The estimated local revenue provides a better picture of the economic benefits that each individual
county locally acquired throughout 2012. For 2012, the counties with the highest estimated local
revenue are Martin ($110 million), Scurry ($80 million), and Glasscock ($58 million). Based on
predictions and calculations, the counties with the highest estimated local revenue for 2022 are Reagan
($149 million), Irion ($111 million), and Martin ($109 million).
Estimated Local Revenues 2012 and 2022
County
Estimated Local
Revenues
2012, in
millions of $ County
Estimated
Local
Revenue
2022, in
millions of $
Martin $109.5 Reagan $148.6
Scurry $80.4 Irion $111.3
Glasscock $58.3 Martin $108.9
Reagan $58.0 Glasscock $77.1
Howard $51.8 Nolan $55.0
Irion $29.9 Howard $50.0
Mitchell $27.1 Mitchell $45.5
Nolan $15.1 Scurry $21.0
Sterling $6.3 Fisher $16.2
Fisher $5.5 Sterling $12.0
Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
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Another indicator of the benefits from the West Texas oil and gas production is the amount of sales
taxes that these counties generate, divided into four quarters, between 2002 and 2012. The 10-county
areas total sales subject to state sales tax had an increase of $340.0 million by the end this time span.
The following graph shows the original values in blue and the smoothed values in red. The smoothed
values represent a four-quarter average.
Source: Texas Comptroller office, historic sales tax data.
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Introduction
The West Texas Energy Consortium is an open forum for coordination and information sharing,
organized by the Workforce Solutions Boards in the Concho Valley, West Central Texas, and PermianBasin regions. This is the second phase of a study that the WTxEC contracted with the Center for
Community and Business Research at The University of Texas at San Antonios Institute for Economic
Development to estimate the specific economic impacts of the oil and gas industry on each of the
following ten counties: Fisher, Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Martin, Mitchell, Nolan, Reagan, Scurry, and
Sterling.
The West Texas Energy Consortium and the Severance Tax
The West Texas Consortium is a 10-county region with active drilling. These counties include: Fisher,
Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Martin, Mitchell, Nolan, Reagan, Scurry, and Sterling. The following tables
detail the severance tax revenue for the ten counties in the consortium. The data was taken from the
Texas ComptrollersOffice and focuses on crude oil and natural gas tax revenue for the year 2012, as
well as the percent change from 2011 to 2012.
Table 0-1
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
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Table 0-2
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Reagan County had the highest revenue of the severance tax for crude oil in 2012, a staggering $23.6
million. Martin and Glasscock Counties had over $17 million, with Irion earning $12.8 million. Howard
County comes in fifth with a gross revenue for 2012 of $8.4 million. Glasscock County has the highest
percent change in crude oil revenue with an 80.7 percent increase from 2011 to 2012. Irion County saw
a 60.7 percent increase in severance tax revenue. The state of Texas as a whole saw a 44.3 percent
increase. Both Sterling and Howard County suffered a negative change in crude oil revenue from 2011
to 2012 with Howard losing the most at 9.1 percent.
Table 0-3
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
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Table 0-4
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
The severance tax revenue for natural gas was the largest in Martin County totaling $79 million.
Glasscock came in second with $51.6 million. Reagan County, which had the highest revenue for crude
oil, was third in natural gas at just over $37.2 million. Scurry and Howard County round out the top five
with $27.1 and $22.9 million, respectively. Glasscock, similar to crude oil percent change, has the
highest percent change for natural gas tax revenue change with 77.6 percent. Scurry is a close second
with a 74.3 percent change. Both Glasscock and Scurry are well above the Texas percent change for
natural gas totaling 13.2 percent increase. Fisher, Sterling, and Mitchel County all suffered a negative
change in natural gas revenue with the last six counties all losing more than 10 percent.
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Fisher County
Overview of Fisher County
Fisher County lies on TX-180, north of I-20. There are only three cities in Fisher County. Roby is thecounty seat, with a population of 643. Rotan and Hamlin are the other two cities, with half of Hamlin
lying in Jones County. It was named after Samuel Rhoads Fisher, a signer of the Texas Declaration of
Independence. Fisher County is one of 30prohibition, or entirelydry,counties in the state of Texas.
Figure 1-1
Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA.
http://www.caliper.com/Center for Community and Business Research.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_countieshttp://www.caliper.com/http://www.caliper.com/http://www.caliper.com/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_counties -
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Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries
Fisher County has a population of 3,914 in 2011. The per capita personal income is $34,088 for 2011.
The top three employments by industry are farm employment, state and local government, and retail
trade; with government and government enterprises being the top industry by earnings.
Table 1-1
Fisher County
Population 3,914Per Capita Personal Income 34,088Total Employment 987
Farm Employment
Employment by Industry (Top 3) State and Local Government
Retail Trade
Government andGovernment Enterprises
Earnings by Industry (Top 3) Farms Earnings
Other Services, Except PublicAdministration
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts
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Population Growth Comparison
Fisher Countys population growth falls behind the rate of Texas and the study area, according to the
U.S. Census Bureau. By 2012, the population of Texas and the WTxEC study area has increased by 22.2percent and 2.7 percent, while the population of Fisher County has decreased by 9.7 percent when
compared to 2001.
Figure 1-2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Job Growth Comparison
Employment in Fisher County decreased 9.8 percent in the twelve-year study period. Fisher Countys
employment rate has not been consistent with the WTxEC study region or state, which have grownrespectively by 14.7 percent and 11.3 percent when compared to 2001.
Figure 1-3
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison
Employment in the natural resources and mining super sector increased 51.2 percent for the state of
Texas and 74.5 percent for the study area in the period between 2001 and 2012. In Fisher County, theemployment for the super-sector was not stable, peaking at 35.1 percent in 2005, decreasing to 13.0
percent in 2011, and decreasing 3.9 percent in 2012 when compared to 2001. The decline in
employment for the sector has followed the same trend as total employment, but has shown a higher
degree of turbulence.Figure 1-4
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment
Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local
economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector with total jobs in the localeconomy, then comparing that to the same ratio for the state level. A location quotient greater than 1.0
denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location
quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is lessimportant to the local economy when compared to
the state.
Both Fisher County and the study area report a location quotient greater than 1.0 from 2001-2012 . The
natural resource and mining super sector has a greater significance in the Fisher County than in study
area from 2002 to 2006.
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
Figure 1-5
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Table 1-6
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Population Projections
The following table projects Fisher Countys population from 2000-2050. The projections are divided by
ethnicity. Each category contains the percent change. Fisher County is projected by the year 2050 to see
an overall decrease in population of 12.7 percent, a 34.4 percent decrease in Anglo population, a 5.9
percent increase in Black population, and a 59.7 percent increase in the Hispanic population.
Table 1-2
Population Projections
Year Total Change Anglo Change Black Change Hispanic Change Other Change
2000 4,344 - 3,271 - 118 - 928 - 27 -
2005 4,249 -2.2% 3,116 -4.7% 117 -0.8% 989 6.6% 27 0%
2010 3,974 -8.5% 2,797 -14.5% 124 5.1% 999 7.7% 54 100.0%
2015 3,984 -8.3% 2,731 -16.5% 130 10.2% 1,069 15.2% 54 100.0%
2020 4,001 -7.9% 2,656 -18.8% 135 14.4% 1,156 24.6% 54 100.0%
2025 4,005 -7.8% 2,583 -21.0% 137 16.1% 1,233 32.9% 52 92.6%
2030 3,984 -8.3% 2,484 -24.1% 138 16.9% 1,310 41.2% 52 92.6%
2035 3,949 -9.1% 2,383 -27.1% 134 13.6% 1,380 48.7% 52 92.6%
2040 3,883 -10.6% 2,295 -29.8% 133 12.7% 1,405 51.4% 50 85.2%
2045 3,841 -11.6% 2,224 -32.0% 130 10.2% 1,440 55.2% 47 74.1%
2050 3,794 -12.7% 2,146 -34.4% 125 5.9% 1,482 59.7% 41 51.9%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas
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Table 1-3
Total Employment Forecast for Fisher County in 2014-2022
In order to estimate the Total Employment Forecast we used percentages of the super sectors for each
county using the forecasts for the corresponding Workforce Development Area (WDA) starting with the
base year (2014) and forecasting every year in between through 2022 (2020 figure provided by TWC).
For the period 2020-2022, it was assumed the same growth rate from previous years.
Year Total Employment Forecast
2014 936
2015 948
2016 961
2017 974
2018 987
2019 1000
2020 1013
2021 1026
2022 1040
Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce
Commissions forecasts for Workforce Development
Areas (WDAs) 2010-2020
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Educational Attainment
Educational Attainment refers to the highest degree of education an individual has completed. In Fisher
County, 82.9 percent of its population has at least a high school diploma, and only 15.9 percent havecompleted their bachelors degree.
Table 1-4
Educational Attainment
Type of School Number Percent Educational Attainment Number Percent
Nursery school or preschool 52 5% Less than 9th grade 232 8%
Kindergarten 49 5% 9th-12th grade, no diploma 246 9%
Elementary (grades 1-8) 496 51% High school diploma or equiv. 1,147 41%
High School (grades 9-12) 308 32% Some college, no degree 571 20%
College or graduate school 70 7% Associate degree 157 6%
Total 975 Bachelor's degree 333 12%
Graduate or professional degree 112 4%Percent with high school diploma 82.9% Total 2,797
Percent with Bachelor's degree 15.9%Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax
Fisher Countys total sales subject tostate sales tax were 1.3 million in the first quarter of 2010 with an
increase to 2.5 million by the first quarter of 2013, an increase of 96 percent. Below is a 10-year
historical graph for Fisher County of the amount of total sales subject to state sales tax. The original
values are in blue and the smoothed values in red. The smoothed values represent a four-quarter sales
average.
Figure 1-7
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
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Employment Changes
Between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2012, for Fisher County, there was a 2.6
percent change in employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same
period was 3.26 percent. The industry with the highest growth was Natural Resources and Mining with a
72.9 percent increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was
Construction, with a -53.8 percent change.
Table 1-5
Employment Changes by Sector
Industry Sector 2011 Q4 2012 Q4Employment
ChangePercentChange
Natural Resources and Mining 74 128 54 72.9%
Leisure and Hospitality 33 39 6 18.2%Public Administration 77 83 6 7.8%Prof., Business, and Other Services 35 37 2 5.7%Total, All Industries 800 821 21 2.6%Trade, Transportation, Utilities 161 156 -5 -3.0%Financial Activities 56 54 -2 -3.0%Education and Health Services 298 281 -17 -5.7%Other Services 27 25 -2 -7.0%Construction 39 18 -21 -53.8%Manufacturing n/a n/a n/a n/aInformation n/a n/a n/a n/a
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Commuting Patterns
Using the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamic (LEHD) mapping programing, the commuting
patterns of residents and employees of the 10-county region shows where residents work and the
employees live. The commuting patterns for Fisher County can be seen below. When compared to the
other nine counties, Fisher County had the second highest percentage, at 69 percent, of employees who
live within one of the 10-counties with active drilling. They had the fourth highest percentage of
residents who work within the 10-county area.
There are 716 people employed in Fisher County. Of the total, 215 work in Scurry and live within one of
the 10-counties that are part of the study. The remaining 501 workers are employed in Fisher County
but live outside the 10-county study area.
Table 1-6
Commuting Patterns for EmployeesNumber Percentage
Live in 10-county area215 30.1%
Live outside 10-county area 501 69.9%
Total 716 100.0%Source: U.S. Census Bureaus On the Map
There are 1,431 workers who live in Fisher County. Of this total, 686 work within the 10-county study
area. The remaining 745 workers live in Fisher County but work outside the 10-county study area.
Table 1-7
Commuting Patterns for Residents
Number Percentage
Work in 10-county area686 47.9%
Work outside 10-county area745 52.1%
Total 1,431 100.0%Source: U.S. Census Bureaus On the Map
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Economic Impacts in 2012
The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Fisher County in 2012.
The rows contain the estimated economic impact for 2012 in regards to the oil and gas industry. During
this period, the total output $176 million, a total of $77 million gross county product, and a total of 394
full-time employment.
The total estimated state revenue was $5 million, and an estimated severance tax of $1 million, with a
total amount of royalties of $16 million, and a total of $6 million lease payments. The drilling and
completion expenditures represented $60 million; followed by oil and gas production with $82 million.
Estimated Impacts in Fisher, 2012
Table 1-8
Economic Impacts
Direct Indirect Induced Total
Output $142,586,917 $23,282,178 $10,528,336 $176,397,432
Gross County Product $60,908,752 $10,381,581 $6,240,719 $77,531,052
Employment Full-Time 137 187 70 394
Payroll $10,781,696 $3,380,275 $1,134,293 $15,296,264
Estimated State Revenue $5,839,608Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
Estimated Expenditures in Fisher, 2012Table 1-9
Severance Tax $1,972,909
Royalties $16,517,383
Lease Payments $6,580,070
Drilling and completion $60,000,000
Oil and gas production $82,586,916
1. Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3 database 2011
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Economic Impacts in 2022
The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Fisher County. In 2022, it is
estimated that a total of 590 Fisher County jobs were supported by the 10-county area under analysis, in
addition to $384 million in output as well as over $198 million gross county product.
The total estimated state revenue is $17 million, and the total severance tax is $9.9 million with a total
of $81 million in royalties and a total of $3 million in lease payments. The drilling and completion
expenditures represented $34 million; followed by oil and gas production with $405 million.
Estimated Impacts in Fisher, 2022Table 1-10
Economic Impacts
Direct Indirect Induced Total
Output $331,136,128 $34,267,210 $19,541,409 $384,944,747
Gross County Product $169,648,577 $16,888,716 $11,583,810 $198,121,103
Employment Full-Time 202 259 130 590
Payroll $23,678,839 $6,009,710 $2,102,966 $31,791,515
Estimated State Revenue $17,173,710Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
Estimated Expenditures Fisher, 2022Table 1-11
Severance Tax $9,988,373.11
Royalties $81,052,314Lease Payments $3,915,811
Drilling and completion $34,925,022
Oil and gas production $405,261,569Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
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Glasscock County
Overview of Glasscock County
The following graphs and charts show population growth, total employment, the natural resource and
mining employment, and the relationship among Glasscock County, the study area, and the state of
Texas. Glasscock County is named after George Washington Glasscock, an early settler of the Austin
area. Glasscock County is located on US Highway 87, and its only town is Garden City, which has a
population of just 334.
Figure 2-1
Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA.
http://www.caliper.com/Center for Community and Business Research.
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Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries
Glasscock County had a total population of just 1,251. The per capita personal income was $32,256. The
top three industry are farm employment, state and local government, and forestry, fishing, and related
activities; with government and government enterprises being the top industry by earnings.
Table 2-1
Glasscock CountyPopulation 1,251
Per capita Personal Income 32,256
Total Employment 436
Farm Employment
Employment by Industry (Top 3) State and Local Government
Forestry, Fishing, and RelatedActivates
Government and GovernmentEnterprises
Earnings by Industry (Top 3)
Forestry, Fishing, and RelatedActivities
MiningSources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts
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Population Growth Comparison
Glasscock Countys population growth falls behind the state of Texas and the WTxEC study area.
Compared to the 22.2 percent increase of Texas, the study area only increased 2.7 percent during the
last twelve years, while Glasscock County decreased 6.8 percent when comparing 2001 and 2012.
Glasscock Countys population has not been consistent with the region or the state.
Figure 2-2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Job Growth Comparison
Employment growth for Glasscock County during the study period is erratic, but has shown a major
upswing since 2009. Glasscock County reached the same 14.7 percent rate as the state of Texas in 2012,
outpacing the WTxEC study areas 11.3 percent job growth when compared to 2001.
Figure 2-3
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison
Employment in the natural resources and mining super-sector increased 51.2 percent in Texas and 74.5
percent for the WTxEC study area between 2001 and 2012. Glasscock Countys employment growth
within the sector has increased to a more modest 22.9 percent between 2001 and 2012.
Figure 2-4
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment
Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local
economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector with total jobs in the local
economy, then comparing that to the same ratio for the state level. A location quotient greater than 1.0
denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that for the state. A location
quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is lessimportant to the local economy when compared to
the state.
Both Glasscock County and the study area report a location quotient greater than 1.0 from 2001 to
2012. The natural resource and mining super sector has a much greater significance in Glasscock County
than in the state of Texas or even the rest of the study area.
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
Figure 2-5
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Chart 2-6
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Population Projections
The following table projects Glasscock Countys population from 2000-2050. The projections are divided
by ethnicity, with a category for Anglo, Black, and Hispanic. Each category contains the percent change.
Glasscock County is projected by the year 2050 to see a 26.8 percent decrease in Anglo population, a
100 percent increase in Black population, and a 51 percent increase in the Hispanic population.
Table 2-2
Population Projections
Year Total Change Anglo Change Black Change Hispanic Change Other Change
2000 1,406 - 978 - 7 - 420 - 1 -
2005 1,473 4.8% 1,009 3.2% 7 0.0% 456 8.6% 1 0.0%
2010 1,226 -12.8% 825 -15.6% 15 114.3% 378 10.0% 8 700.0%
2015 1,280 -9.0% 848 -13.3% 15 114.3% 409 -2.6% 8 700.0%
2020 1,341 -4.6% 873 -10.7% 15 114.3% 445 6.0% 8 700.0%
2025 1,391 -1.1% 888 -9.2% 15 114.3% 480 14.3% 8 700.0%2030 1,429 1.6% 885 -9.5% 15 114.3% 521 24.0% 8 700.0%
2035 1,441 2.5% 860 -12.1% 15 114.3% 558 32.9% 8 700.0%
2040 1,421 1.1% 816 -16.6% 15 114.3% 583 38.8% 7 600.0%
2045 1,392 -1.0% 762 -22.1% 14 100.0% 609 45.0% 7 600.0%
2050 1,371 -2.5% 716 -26.8% 14 100.0% 634 51.0% 7 600.0%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas
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Table 2-3
Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce
Commissions forecasts for Workforce Development
Areas (WDAs) 2010-2020
Total Employment Forecast for Glasscock County in 2014-2022
In order to estimate the Total Employment Forecast we used percentages of the super sectors for each
county using the forecasts for the corresponding Workforce Development Area (WDA) starting with the
base year (2014) and forecasting every year in between through 2022 (2020 figure provided by TWC).
For the period 2020-2022, it was assumed the same growth rate from previous years.
Year Total Employment Forecast
2014 416
2015 428
2016 440
2017 453
2018 466
2019 4802020 494
2021 508
2022 523
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Educational Attainment
Educational Attainment refers to the highest degree of education an individual has completed. In
Glasscock County, 83.2 percent of its population has at least a high school diploma, and 20 percent havecompleted their bachelors degree.
Table 2-4
Educational Attainment
Type of School Number Percent Educational Attainment Number Percent
Nursery school or preschool 12 3.6% Less than 9th grade 72 9.7%
Kindergarten 12 3.6% 9th-12th grade, no diploma 53 7.1%
Elementary (grades 1-8) 158 47.7% High school diploma or equiv. 173 23.2%
High School (grades 9-12) 113 34.1% Some college, no degree 247 33.1%
College or graduate school 36 10.9% Associate degree 52 7.0%
Total 331 Bachelor's degree 116 15.5%
Graduate or professional degree 33 4.4%Percent with high school diploma 83.2% Total 746
Percent with Bachelor's degree 20.0%Source: Texas Workforce Commissions County Narrative Profile from the Socrates database
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Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax
Glasscock Countys total sales subject to state sales tax were 5.3 million in the first quarter of 2010 with
an increase to 2.2 million by the first quarter of 2013, an increase of 330 percent. Below is a 10-year
historical graph for Glasscock County of the amount of total sales subject to state sales tax. The original
values are in blue and the smoothed values in red. The smoothed values represent a four-quarter sales
average.
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Figure 2-7
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County Budgets
The following graph shows the revenues and expenditures for Glasscock County. Their revenues have
steadily risen from under $3.5 million in 2009 to over $7.3 million in 2013, while increasing their net
surplus.
Figure 2-8
Source: Glasscock Reporting Budget Fund
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Employment Changes
Between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2012 there was an 8.1 percent change in
employment for all industries. Employment growth for the state of Texas for the same period was 3.26percent. The industry with the highest growth was trade, transportation and utilities with a 9.3 percent
increase, and the industry with the highest negative growth in employment was Construction, with a
15.8 percent decrease.
Table 2-5
Employment Changes by Sector
Industry Sector 2011 Q4 2012 Q4Employment
ChangePercentChange
Trade, Transport., and Utilities 43 47 4 9.3%Natural Resources and Mining 210 229 19 9.0%Total, All Industries 321 347 26 8.1%
Public Administration 49 50 1 2.0%Construction 19 16 -3 -15.8%Manufacturing n/a n/a n/a n/aInformation n/a n/a n/a n/aFinancial Activities n/a n/a n/a n/aProf., Business, and Other Services n/a 5 n/a n/aEducation and Health Services n/a n/a n/a n/aLeisure and Hospitality n/a n/a n/a n/aOther Services n/a n/a n/a n/a
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Commuting Patterns
Using the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamic (LEHD) mapping program, the commuting patterns
of residents and employees of the 10-county region shows where residents work and the employees
live. The commuting patterns for Glasscock County can be seen below. When compared to the other
nine counties, Glasscock County had the third lowest percentage, at 40 percent, of employees who live
within one of the 10-counties with active drilling. However, they had the second highest percentage of
residents who work within the 10-county area.
There are 249 people employed in Glasscock County. Of this total, 150 work in Glasscock County and live
within one of the 10-counties that are part of the study. The remaining 99 workers are employed in
Glasscock County but live outside the 10-county study area.
Table 2-6
Commuting Patterns for Employees
Number Percentage
Live in 10-county area150 60.2%
Live outside 10-county area99 39.8%
Total 249 100.0%Source: US Census Bureaus On the Map
There are 480 workers who live in Glasscock County. Of the total, 118 work in Glasscock and live within
the 10-county study area. The remaining 362 workers are employed in Glasscock County but live outside
the 10-county study area.
Table 2-7
Commuting Patterns for Residents
Number Percentage
Work in 10-county area118 24.6%
Work outside 10-county area362 75.4%
Total 480 100.0%Source: US Census Bureaus On the Map
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Economic Impacts in 2012
The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale oil and gas industry on Glasscock County.
In 2012, it is estimated that a total of 1,657 Glasscock County jobs were supported by the 10-county
area under analysis, in addition to $1.4 million in output as well as over $686 million gross county
product.
The total estimated state revenue was $61 million, total severance tax $27 million, an estimated lease
payments of $28 million and $222 million in royalties. The drilling and completion expenditures
represented $276 million; followed by oil and gas production with $1.1 million, and pipeline
construction activity with $9 million.
Estimated Impacts in Glasscock 2012
Table 2-8
Economic Impacts
Direct Indirect Induced Total
Output $1,395,709,629 $50,259,020 $22,801,749 $1,468,770,398Gross County Product $656,586,417 $16,835,812 $12,991,805 $686,414,034
Employment Full-Time 1,069 455 133 1,657
Payroll $80,406,832 $11,901,887 $2,040,628 $94,349,346
Estimated State Revenue $61,821,808
Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
Estimated Expenditures in Glasscock 2012Table 2-9
Severance Tax $27,061,044Royalties $222,028,407
Lease Payments $28,952,307
Drilling and completion $276,257,253
Oil and gas production $1,110,142,037
Pipeline Construction $9,310,340Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
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Economic Impacts in 2022
The following table shows the estimated impacts of the oil and gas industry on Glasscock County. In
2022, it is estimated that a total of 1,884 Glasscock County jobs were supported by the 10-county area
under analysis, in addition to $1.9 million in output as well as over $934 million gross county product.
The total estimated state revenue was $81 million, total severance tax $49 million and an estimated
lease payments of $23 million; with an estimate of $405 million in royalties. The drilling and completion
expenditures represented $298 million; while oil and gas production accounted for $2 million and a
refinery production of $3.5 million, and pipeline construction activity with $9 million.
Estimated Impacts in Glasscock 2022Table 2-10
Economic Impacts
Direct Indirect Induced Total
Output $1,780,982,912 $56,365,633 $33,862,244 $1,871,210,789
Gross County Product $894,290,370 $20,575,864 $19,401,815 $934,268,048Employment Full-Time 1,172 512 199 1,884
Payroll $133,067,851 $14,726,626 $3,072,251 $150,866,729
Estimated State Revenue $81,544,909
Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
Estimated Expenditures Glasscock 2022Table 2-11
Severance Tax $49,533,384.25
Royalties $405,771,731
Lease Payments $22,727,635
Drilling and completion $298,062,957
Oil and gas production $2,028,858,656
Refinery Production $3,555,538,000
Pipeline Construction $9,310,340Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
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Howard County
Overview of Howard County
The following graphs and charts show population growth, total employment, the super sector natural
resource and mining (NRM) employment, and the relationship between Howard County, the study area,and the state of Texas. Howard County is located along Interstate 20 and US Highway 87. The County
was named after Volney E. Howard, a U.S. Congressman from Texas. Big Spring is the countys seat, with
a population 27,282. Other smaller cities include Sand Springs, Coahoma, and Forsan, each with under
1,000 residents.
Figure 3-1
Source: Selected GIS software provided by Caliper Corporation; Newton, MA.
http://www.caliper.com/Center for Community and Business Research.
http://www.caliper.com/http://www.caliper.com/http://www.caliper.com/ -
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Per Capita Income, Population, and Industries
Howard County had a population of 35,122. The per capita personal income was $37,181. The top three
industry are state and local government, retail trade, and mining; with government and government
enterprises being the top industry by earnings.
Table 3-1
Howard County
Population 35,122
Per capita Personal Income 31,781
Total Employment 12,935
State and Local Government
Employment by Industry (Top 3) Retail Trade
Mining
Government and GovernmentEnterprises
Earnings by Industry (Top 3) Mining
ManufacturingSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Accounts
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Population Growth Comparison
The population of Howard County has grown by 6.4 percent during the past twelve years. This
population growth is consistently higher than the 2.7 percent average of the WTxEC study area, but bothpercentages are lower than the 22.2 percent average for the state of Texas.
Figure 3-2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Job Growth Comparison
Employment grew in Howard County at a 3.4 percent lower rate than in the state of Texas over the
twelve-year study period. The employment growth percentages for the state of Texas, Howard County,and the WTxEC study area followed a similar pattern.
Figure 3-3
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Natural Resource and Mining Employment Growth Comparison
Howard Countys employment in the natural resources and mining sector grew by 76.4 percent over the
twelve-year study period, which is higher than the WTxECs study area growth of 74.5 percent and thestate of Texass 51.2 percent in the same sector between 2001 and 2012. Development within the oil
and gas industry is definitely the driver of growth in Howard County, as the growth in jobs in the sector
outpaces total job growth.Figure 3-4
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Figure 3-5
Location Quotients for Natural Resource and Mining Employment
Location quotients are useful in determining the significance of a particular job sector in the local
economy. This is determined by calculating the ratio of a particular job sector from the local economy
with total jobs in the local economy, then comparing that to the same ratio for the state. A location
quotient greater than 1.0 denotes a sector that has greater importance to the local economy than that
for the state. A location quotient less than 1.0 signifies that the sector is lessimportant to the local
economy when compared to the state.
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Both Howard County and the study area report a location quotient greater than 1.0 between 2001 and
2012. The natural resource and mining super sector has a greater significance in the study area than in
Howard County, and its importance has grown over the years.
Figure 3-6
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Population ProjectionsPopulation projections are an estimate of a future population. The following table projects Howard
Countys population from 2000-2050. The projections are divided by ethnicity, with a category for Anglo,
Black, and Hispanic. Each category contains the percent change. Howard County is projected by the year
2050 to see an increase in total population by 17.4 percent, a 12.5 percent decrease in Anglopopulation, a 42.9 percent increase in Black population, and a 54.4 percent increase in the Hispanic
population.
Table 3-2
Population Projections
Year Total Change Anglo Change Black Change Hispanic Change Other Change
2000 33,627 - 19,327 - 1357 - 12597 - 346 -
2005 34,365 2.2% 18,922 -2.1% 1456 7.3% 13622 8.1% 365 5.5%
2010 35,012 4.1% 18,801 -2.7% 2079 53.2% 13255 5.2% 877 153.5%
2015 36,274 7.9% 18,946 -2.0% 2193 61.6% 14,197 12.7% 938 171.1%
2020 37,310 11.0% 18,937 -2.0% 2288 68.6% 15,095 19.8% 990 186.1%
2025 38,237 13.7% 18,838 -2.5% 2328 71.6% 16,024 27.2% 1047 202.6%2030 38,936 15.8% 18,573 -3.9% 2326 71.4% 16,941 34.5% 1096 216.8%
2035 39,395 17.2% 18,240 -5.6% 2281 68.1% 17,733 40.8% 1141 229.8%
2040 39,603 17.8% 17,843 -7.7% 2193 61.6% 18,392 46.0% 1175 239.6%
2045 39,563 17.7% 17,366 -10.1% 2078 53.1% 18,941 50.4% 1178 240.5%
2050 39,475 17.4% 16,902 -12.5% 1939 42.9% 19,454 54.4% 1180 241.0%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission as computed in 2012 by The Office of the State Demographer for the State of Texas
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Table
Table 3-3
Total Employment Forecast for Howard County in 2014-2022
In order to estimate the Total Employment Forecast we used percentages of the super sectors for each
county using the forecasts for the corresponding Workforce Development Area (WDA) starting with the
base year (2014) and forecasting every year in between through 2022 (2020 figure provided by TWC).
For the period 2020-2022, it was assumed the same growth rate from previous years.
Year Total Employment Forecast
2014 13265
2015 13582
2016 13909
2017 14242
2018 14586
2019 14937
2020 15296
2021 15572
2022 15898Source: CCBR elaboration with Texas Workforce
Commissions forecasts for Workforce Development Areas
(WDAs) 2010-2020
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Building Permits
Howard County saw a large increase in single family building permits the last three years, rising from two
in 2009, to fifteen in 2012.
Table 3-4
Single Family Building PermitsYear 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Units 15 3 0 3 0 2 2 16 10 2 2 5 15Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
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Educational Attainment
Educational Attainment refers to the highest degree of education an individual has completed. In
Howard County, 72.2 percent of its population has at least a high school diploma, and only 10.8 percenthave completed their bachelors degree.
Table 3-5
Educational Attainment
Type of School Number Percent Educational Attainment Number Percent
Nursery school or preschool 384 4.9% Less than 9th grade 2,698 11.4%
Kindergarten 385 4.9% 9th-12th grade, no diploma 3,881 16.4%
Elementary (grades 1-8) 3,390 43.1% High school diploma or equiv. 6,721 28.4%
High School (grades 9-12) 2,127 27.0% Some college, no degree 5,963 25.2%
College or graduate school 1,579 20.1% Associate degree 1,846 7.8%
Total 7,865 Bachelor's degree 1,727 7.3%
Graduate or professional degree 828 3.5%
Percent with high school diploma 72.2% Total 23,664
Percent with Bachelor's degree 10.8%Source: Texas Workforce Commissions County Narrative Profile from the Socrates database
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Amounts Subject to State Sales Tax
Howard Countys total sales subject to sales tax were $64,744,093 in the first quarter of 2010 with an
increase to $110,074,460 by the first quarter of 2013, an increase of 70 percent. Below is a 10 year
historical graph for Howard County of the amount of total sales subject to sales tax. The original values
are in blue and the smoothed values in red. The smoothed values represent a four-quarter salesaverage.
Figure 3-7
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
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County Budgets
The following graph shows the revenues and expenditures for Howard County. Their revenues have held
steady around $11 million, until they increased 2011.
Figure 3-8
Source: Howard County, Texas 2009-2013 Budgets
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Employment Changes
Between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2012, for Howard County, there was a 3.1
percent change in employment for all industries. The employment growth for the state of Texas for the
same period was 3.26 percent. The industry with the highest growth was manufacturing with a 15.7
percent increase.
Table 3-6
Employment Changes by Sector
Industry Sector 2011 Q4 2012 Q4Employment
ChangePercentChange
Manufacturing 959 1,110 151 15.7%Prof., Business, and Other Services 284 321 37 13.0%Leisure and Hospitality 1,107 1,206 99 9.9%Total, All Industries 12,392 12,780 388 3.1%Construction 841 863 22 2.6%Education and Health Services 4,596 4,716 120 2.6%
Public Administration 643 626 -17 2.6%Trade, Transport, and Utilities 2,167 220 42 1.9%Natural Resources and Mining 946 950 4 0.4%Other Services 317 315 -2 -0.6%Information 98 94 -4 -4.0%Financial Activities 434 370 -64 -14.7%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, from 2001 to 2012
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Commuting Patterns
Using LEHD mapping, the commuting patterns of residents and employees of the 10-county region
shows where residents work and the employees live. The commuting patterns for Howard County can
be seen below. When compared to the other nine counties, Howard County had the third highest
percentage, at 32 percent, of employees who live within one of the 10-counties with active drilling. They
also had the third highest percentage of residents who work within the 10-county area.
There are 10,683 people employed in Howard County. A total of 7,265 work in Howard and live within
one of the 10-counties that are part of the study. The remaining 3,418 workers are employed in Howard
County but live outside the 10-county study area.
Table 3-7
Commuting Patterns for Employees
Number Percentage
Live in 10-county area7,265 68%
Live outside 10-county area3,418 32%
Total 10,683 100%Source: U.S. Census Bureaus On the Map
There are 12,418 workers who live in Howard County. A total 7,402 work in Howard and live within the
10-county study area. The remaining 5,016 workers are employed in Howard County but live outside the
10-county study area.
Table 3-8
Commuting Patterns for Residents
Number Percentage
Work in 10-county area7,402 60%
Work outside 10-county area5,016 40%
Total 12,418 100%Source: U.S. Census Bureaus On the Map
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Economic Impacts in 2012
The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Howard County. In 2012, it is
estimated that a total of 2,808 Howard County jobs were supported by the 10-county area under
analysis, in addition to $4.2 million in output and more than $1.5 million in gross county product.
The total estimated state revenue was $54 million, total severance tax $17 million, a total of $148
million in royalties and an estimated lease payments of $15 million. The drilling and completion
expenditures represented $138 million; followed by oil and gas production with $744 million, and
pipeline construction activity with $9 million.
Estimated Impacts in Howard 2012
Table 3-9
Economic Impacts
Direct Indirect Induced Total
Output $3,543,275,901 $598,510,145 $97,197,229 $4,238,983,274
Gross County Product $912,082,419 $185,886,274 $56,128,805 $1,154,097,498
Employment Full-Time 827 1,350 631 2,808
Payroll $88,277,830 $55,237,978 $20,380,558 $163,896,367
Estimated State Revenue $54,663,733
Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
Estimated Expenditures in Howard 2012Table 3-10
Severance Tax $17,722,708Royalties $148,950,866
Lease Payments $15,134,161
Drilling and completion $138,000,000
Oil and gas production $744,754,328
Refinery Production $2,660,521,500Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
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Economic Impacts in 2022
The following table shows the estimated impacts of the shale activity on Howard County. In 2022, it is
estimated that a total of 2,783 Howard County jobs were supported by the 10-county area under
analysis, in addition to $4.5 million in output and more than $1.2 million in gross county product.
The total estimated state revenue was $52 million, total severance tax $22 million, a total of $186
million on royalties and an estimated lease payments of $9 million. The drilling and completion
expenditures represented $80 million; followed by oil and gas production with $932 million.
Estimated Impacts in Howard 2022Table 3-11
EconomicImpacts
Direct Indirect Induced Total
Output $3,672,311,610 $681,214,954 $107,534,671 $4,461,061,235
Gross County Product $925,823,833 $204,736,419 $61,327,884 $1,191,888,136
Employment Full-Time 720 1,377 686 2,783
Payroll $100,642,574 $57,774,039 $22,201,279 $180,617,893
Estimated State Revenue $52,675,758
Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
Estimated Expenditures in Howard 2022Table 3-12
Severance Tax $22,973,258.14Royalties $186,420,322
Lease Payments $9,006,366
Drilling and completion $80,327,551
Oil and gas production $932,101,609Source: CCBR Estimations using IMPLAN software version 3, database 2011
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Irion County
Overview of Irion County
The following graphs and charts show population growth, total employment, natural resource andmining employment, and the relationship between Irion County, the study area, and the state of Texas.
Irion County is located on theEdwards Plateau in thestate ofTexas.It is part of the San Angelo
Metropolitan Statistical Area.The county is named forRobert Anderson Irion,a secretary of state of the